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Thread: The WoV Thread

  1. #2081
    Originally Posted by RS__ View Post
    Originally Posted by coach belly View Post
    Originally Posted by kewlJ View Post
    Always taking insurance has a small cost but not nearly as much as you might think
    Is there any math to back that up?
    1/13'th of the time the dealer has an ace up.

    Probability of a player blackjack is (1/13)*(4/13)*2 = 1/21.125

    (1/13) * (1/21.125) = 1 in 274.625


    Taking even money on a blackjack on a $100 bet is $100 in value. If you play it normally, then 4/13 of the time you win $0 and 9/13 of the time you win $150. $150 * 9/13 = $103.84.

    So the difference between the two is 3.84% for that hand....but that should occur once every 274.625 hands. If your average bet is $100, then you're giving up about $0.014 per round in EV, that's 1.4 cents (one point four cents).

    And if you have a 1% advantage with an average bet of $100, then your EV is $1/round. After taking away the 'blackjack insurance' thing it's $0.986/round.
    Do you always have a 1% advantage when counting?

    How does that compare to the other player-favorable strategies...double down, splitting pairs, double after split, insurance?
    Last edited by coach belly; 05-17-2018 at 07:08 PM.

  2. #2082
    Originally Posted by kewlJ View Post
    I am just going to ignore Bill Young who is jumping all over everyone giving trolling answers that make it more than obvious he knows absolutely nothing about which he is speaking of. I suggest everyone else do likewise.
    I suggest that you find yourself a good shrink there in Las Vegas with those - golf claps - hundred-dollar bets of yours. Give your mother a break. You are talking to an imaginary audience, and a few persons who are here for the entertain that others like you provide. Like I told Monet - type away, and you'll fit right in.
    78255585899=317*13723*17989=(310+7)*[(13730-7)*(100*100+7979+10)]-->LOVE avatar@137_371_179_791, or 137_371_17[3^2]_7[3^2]1, 1=V-->Ace, low. 78255585899-->99858555287=(99858555288-1)=[-1+(72*2227)*(722777-100000)]={-1+(72*2227)*[(2000+700777+20000)-100000]}-->1_722_227_277_772_1. 7×8×2×5×5×5×8×5×8×9×9=362880000=(1000000000-6√97020000-100000)-->169_721. (7/8×2/5×5/5×8/5×8/9×9)={[(-.1+.9)]^2×(6+1)}-->1961=√4*2.24; (1/7×8/2×5/5×5/8×5/8×9/9)={1/[7×(-.2+1)^2]}-->1721=[(10*10/4)/(√4+110)].

  3. #2083
    Does the"accumulated EV" that KJ speaks about sit in an imaginaty bank for use even years later.

    For example..If I go to vegas once every year for 5 days, play BJ perfectly, but still lose alot of money......after 5 years of this I stop. And 20 years later I move tobvegas to do it full time.

    has the accumulated EV "EXPIRED????? does everything start at ground zero......or can the guy play just like Kj plays knowing he has accumulated EV.

  4. #2084
    Originally Posted by LarryS View Post
    Does the"accumulated EV" that KJ speaks about sit in an imaginaty bank for use even years later.

    For example..If I go to vegas once every year for 5 days, play BJ perfectly, but still lose alot of money......after 5 years of this I stop. And 20 years later I move tobvegas to do it full time.

    has the accumulated EV "EXPIRED????? does everything start at ground zero......or can the guy play just like Kj plays knowing he has accumulated EV.
    Tableplay broke it down in excruciating detail, you need a larger sample size. You can’t pretend to be that stupid and harvit be believed stop trolling, everyone knows from other posts you have more of a brain than that.

  5. #2085
    Originally Posted by LarryS View Post
    Does the"accumulated EV" that KJ speaks about sit in an imaginaty bank for use even years later.

    For example..If I go to vegas once every year for 5 days, play BJ perfectly, but still lose alot of money......after 5 years of this I stop. And 20 years later I move tobvegas to do it full time.

    has the accumulated EV "EXPIRED????? does everything start at ground zero......or can the guy play just like Kj plays knowing he has accumulated EV.
    Larry it's like that condom I used to keep in my wallet in high school. All the rejections from the cute girls were building up EV. Finally. I got to use that condom. Unfortunately I was alone at the time.

  6. #2086
    Originally Posted by tableplay View Post
    Originally Posted by coach belly View Post
    Originally Posted by tableplay View Post
    Why must the game converge to expectation for the year ?
    I don't know why.

    The players are reporting their results for a year, and comparing the results to expectation for the year.

    Above there's an example of results for 4 months, and expectation for 4 months.

    Is there no way to measure EV for a defined period of time?

    I'm trying to understand how, after a losing start to the year, the player knows he will win for the year.

    Does he know that since his results are well below expectation, that he will begin to win at a rate equally above expectation?
    The player doesn't know he or she will win for the year. He or she can only state a probability. In an earlier post, I showed the use of the binomial probability density function so that the likelihood of having a certain number of successes could be calculated given a known expectation. Unless a probability is zero or 1, you can only state a probability that you will have a certain number of winning sessions. The more sessions/hands you play the more likely you will converge to expectation, but there are no guarantees for probabilities which are not zero or 1.
    The player doesn't have to win at an equal rate to a loss rate - this is a random walk, not some tit-for-tat scenario. Through a series of random wins and losses, the player will get to the expectation.
    This is what MCAP is referring to. If individuals take the time to read the three or four posts from tableplay, it will all make sense.

  7. #2087
    But seriously. This accumulated EV stuff has you guys talking out of both sides of your mouth. On the one hand you tell me every spin is 1.02, whether today, tomorrow, whether I won $10,000 or lost $10,000. But then you tell me the losses are building EV and we will regress to the mean. But regressing to the mean requires outperforming the 1.02. But you told me every spin is 1.02. So how do I do that?

    Oh yeah--I go to the vault and get some accumulated EV and play with that.

    This is what Coach and Larry , and to some extent me keep asking.

  8. #2088
    Originally Posted by regnis View Post
    But seriously. This accumulated EV stuff has you guys talking out of both sides of your mouth. On the one hand you tell me every spin is 1.02, whether today, tomorrow, whether I won $10,000 or lost $10,000. But then you tell me the losses are building EV and we will regress to the mean. But regressing to the mean requires outperforming the 1.02. But you told me every spin is 1.02. So how do I do that?

    Oh yeah--I go to the vault and get some accumulated EV and play with that.

    This is what Coach and Larry , and to some extent me keep asking.

    If every spin was 1.02 then no one would be in a negative position, using your supposition. OK, but I get your overall comment. No one is saying that they will make a certain amount of money over a certain amount of plays. Over time, whatever that is, there should be a 2 percent profit. It could be a million plays.

    Sorry to interrupt. I will go back to my balcony seating and watch from a distance,

  9. #2089
    On average, over time, in the long run: pick your poison.
    What, Me Worry?

  10. #2090
    We've got a lot of people around here that just can't get what "accumulated" means. "Accumulated" is the past tense of "accumulate." So if you have "accumulated EV" it is all in the past. It has no bearing on the future. None. Zilch. Nada. Fanita Lama Sica. You compare your "accumulated" EV to the results you had running it.

    So knock off the bullshit of trying to represent it as AP's saying "since I lost while having positive EV that means I will run above expectation in the future." That's bullshit invented by ignorant and stupid trolls on this site.
    "More importantly, mickey thought 8-4 was two games over .500. Argued about it. C'mon, man. Nothing can top that for math expertise. If GWAE ever has you on again, you can be sure I'll be calling in with that gem.'Nuff said." REDIETZ

  11. #2091
    Originally Posted by coach belly View Post
    Originally Posted by RS__ View Post
    Originally Posted by coach belly View Post

    Is there any math to back that up?
    1/13'th of the time the dealer has an ace up.

    Probability of a player blackjack is (1/13)*(4/13)*2 = 1/21.125

    (1/13) * (1/21.125) = 1 in 274.625


    Taking even money on a blackjack on a $100 bet is $100 in value. If you play it normally, then 4/13 of the time you win $0 and 9/13 of the time you win $150. $150 * 9/13 = $103.84.

    So the difference between the two is 3.84% for that hand....but that should occur once every 274.625 hands. If your average bet is $100, then you're giving up about $0.014 per round in EV, that's 1.4 cents (one point four cents).

    And if you have a 1% advantage with an average bet of $100, then your EV is $1/round. After taking away the 'blackjack insurance' thing it's $0.986/round.
    Do you always have a 1% advantage when counting?

    How does that compare to the other player-favorable strategies...double down, splitting pairs, double after split, insurance?
    If you really care, read a book. But I’m not going to have some back-and-forth with someone who’s likely just trying to waste my time and troll. If you have an actual interesting question, go ahead.

  12. #2092
    Originally Posted by regnis View Post
    But seriously. This accumulated EV stuff has you guys talking out of both sides of your mouth. On the one hand you tell me every spin is 1.02, whether today, tomorrow, whether I won $10,000 or lost $10,000. But then you tell me the losses are building EV and we will regress to the mean. But regressing to the mean requires outperforming the 1.02. But you told me every spin is 1.02. So how do I do that?

    Oh yeah--I go to the vault and get some accumulated EV and play with that.

    This is what Coach and Larry , and to some extent me keep asking.
    Read my first post on this subject it explains it, I think, fairly clearly. The short version is this: It regresses towards the mean as a PERCENTAGE.

  13. #2093
    Originally Posted by mickeycrimm View Post
    We've got a lot of people around here that just can't get what "accumulated" means. "Accumulated" is the past tense of "accumulate." So if you have "accumulated EV" it is all in the past. It has no bearing on the future. None. Zilch. Nada. Fanita Lama Sica. You compare your "accumulated" EV to the results you had running it.

    So knock off the bullshit of trying to represent it as AP's saying "since I lost while having positive EV that means I will run above expectation in the future." That's bullshit invented by ignorant and stupid trolls on this site.
    Someone please wake me up from this nightmare.

  14. #2094
    This is all just a ploy to distract from the bomb KJ dropped about Singer. No one is this retarded. Not even Alan, who has made his way out from his hidey-hole.

  15. #2095
    Originally Posted by MaxPen View Post
    No one is this retarded. Except for Alan, who has made his way out from his hidey-hole.
    Fixed that for you.

  16. #2096
    Originally Posted by Rob.Singer View Post
    Originally Posted by mickeycrimm View Post
    Rob, if I work a promotion where every quad gets a 125 coin bonus do you really think I'm being fooled?
    They make money on every promotion or else they wouldn't have them.

  17. #2097
    Originally Posted by mickeycrimm View Post
    We've got a lot of people around here that just can't get what "accumulated" means. "Accumulated" is the past tense of "accumulate." So if you have "accumulated EV" it is all in the past. It has no bearing on the future. None. Zilch. Nada. Fanita Lama Sica. You compare your "accumulated" EV to the results you had running it.

    So knock off the bullshit of trying to represent it as AP's saying "since I lost while having positive EV that means I will run above expectation in the future." That's bullshit invented by ignorant and stupid trolls on this site.
    Originally Posted by kewlJ View Post
    Alan, I'm going to try one more approach. Every round I play has an expected value amount (EV). At the end of the year, I have a total EV amount for all hands plays (cumulative EV). And by the end of the year, which represents "the long run" or long term, my actual results will be pretty close to accumulated EV. I have had one outlier year significantly below EV and one outlier year significantly above, but generally actual results are pretty close to accumulated EV.

    So the goal is to play as many rounds as possible, accumulating as much EV as possible. Now in the process, actual results will go up and down like the stock market, but the overall trend (longterm) is upward. So quitting when having a "bad day", all that does is stifle the overall total EV. In other words....quitting early based on some artificial goal or target, cost me money.

    It really boils down to long-term vs short-term thinking. YOU are thinking about short-term results. AP's are looking at long-term results. Quitting to preserve some sort of artificial short time goal, would be like a baseball team with a goal of being ahead after the second inning. That is NOT what matters. What matters is the score after 9 innings.

  18. #2098
    Don't take our word for it (Terry Tao is a world class mathematician and considered one of the greatest mathematicians of all time):

    https://terrytao.wordpress.com/2008/...large-numbers/.

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    Last edited by tableplay; 05-18-2018 at 03:43 AM.

  19. #2099
    Originally Posted by MisterV View Post
    On average, over time, in the long run: pick your poison.
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    Someone please wake me up from this nightmare.
    With gambling, there is no long run, over time, or on average. There's only a short run that repeats itself.
    78255585899=317*13723*17989=(310+7)*[(13730-7)*(100*100+7979+10)]-->LOVE avatar@137_371_179_791, or 137_371_17[3^2]_7[3^2]1, 1=V-->Ace, low. 78255585899-->99858555287=(99858555288-1)=[-1+(72*2227)*(722777-100000)]={-1+(72*2227)*[(2000+700777+20000)-100000]}-->1_722_227_277_772_1. 7×8×2×5×5×5×8×5×8×9×9=362880000=(1000000000-6√97020000-100000)-->169_721. (7/8×2/5×5/5×8/5×8/9×9)={[(-.1+.9)]^2×(6+1)}-->1961=√4*2.24; (1/7×8/2×5/5×5/8×5/8×9/9)={1/[7×(-.2+1)^2]}-->1721=[(10*10/4)/(√4+110)].

  20. #2100
    Originally Posted by tableplay View Post
    Don't take our word for it (Terry Tao is a world class mathematician and considered one of the greatest mathematicians of all time):
    But does his mother drive him around all day at "work"? And does he suck others into his number fantasies?
    78255585899=317*13723*17989=(310+7)*[(13730-7)*(100*100+7979+10)]-->LOVE avatar@137_371_179_791, or 137_371_17[3^2]_7[3^2]1, 1=V-->Ace, low. 78255585899-->99858555287=(99858555288-1)=[-1+(72*2227)*(722777-100000)]={-1+(72*2227)*[(2000+700777+20000)-100000]}-->1_722_227_277_772_1. 7×8×2×5×5×5×8×5×8×9×9=362880000=(1000000000-6√97020000-100000)-->169_721. (7/8×2/5×5/5×8/5×8/9×9)={[(-.1+.9)]^2×(6+1)}-->1961=√4*2.24; (1/7×8/2×5/5×5/8×5/8×9/9)={1/[7×(-.2+1)^2]}-->1721=[(10*10/4)/(√4+110)].

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