The WoV Thread

[Alan Mendelson]

Okay mickeycrimm I'm going to humor you one more time.

Let's say YOU were the guy peeking under the cup and YOU were asking me the question. What would the answer be as YOU looked under the cup?

[The Boz]

How about the ridiculous claim of a card-counter counting cards for 15 years undetected by enough casinos to withdraw well over a million dollars in Las Vegas of all places? Then claiming to be training his brother who lives with him which could only mean doubling their income.

I’m not saying the claim is unicorn shit, or mathematically impossible. I’m saying just plain old obvious simple BULLSHIT. There really is no difference

Welcome back stupid fuck. Assuming you addressed your cheating Son in Law over the Holidays.

Show me once where KJ said his brother would double his income.

Maybe for the New Years you should try not talking out of your stupidly fucked ass. Not having any son in laws confirms just endless stinking shit shooting out of your fucked ass.

I said -"Then claiming to be training his brother who lives with him which could only mean doubling their income." How you get KJ said his brother would double his income from my quote only is another confirmation that not only do you have a fucked ass, it's a stupid fucked ass. Happy New Year

You and I both know you know I’m right. Should I doxx you to prove it? Sorry not my MO.

Face it asshole, lifetime admitted loser at gambling bitter at the gambling world.

Sad because you have been successful at other parts in your life.

[mickeycrimm]

How about the ridiculous claim of a card-counter counting cards for 15 years undetected by enough casinos to withdraw well over a million dollars in Las Vegas of all places? Then claiming to be training his brother who lives with him which could only mean doubling their income.

I’m not saying the claim is unicorn shit, or mathematically impossible. I’m saying just plain old obvious simple BULLSHIT. There really is no difference

Welcome back stupid fuck. Assuming you addressed your cheating Son in Law over the Holidays.

Show me once where KJ said his brother would double his income.

Maybe for the New Years you should try not talking out of your stupidly fucked ass. Not having any son in laws confirms just endless stinking shit shooting out of your fucked ass.

I said -"Then claiming to be training his brother who lives with him which could only mean doubling their income." How you get KJ said his brother would double his income from my quote only is another confirmation that not only do you have a fucked ass, it's a stupid fucked ass. Happy New Year

Do you know the difference between blackhole and a catfish?

One is a bottom feeding scum sucker and the other is a fish.

[kewlJ]

Welcome back stupid fuck. Assuming you addressed your cheating Son in Law over the Holidays.

Show me once where KJ said his brother would double his income.

Maybe for the New Years you should try not talking out of your stupidly fucked ass. Not having any son in laws confirms just endless stinking shit shooting out of your fucked ass.

I said -"Then claiming to be training his brother who lives with him which could only mean doubling their income." How you get KJ said his brother would double his income from my quote only is another confirmation that not only do you have a fucked ass, it's a stupid fucked ass. Happy New Year

You and I both know you know I’m right. Should I doxx you to prove it?

Face it asshole, lifetime admitted loser at gambling bitter at the gambling world.

Sad because you have been successful at other parts in your life.

This seems to be the situation with several of the "haters" on this site. Bitter old dudes angry at players who have succeeded making money from the casinos where they have failed. Even if they have had success elsewhere in life, they are bitter and angry about this.

[kewlJ]

Now I want to address this stupid shit about my brother. What the fuck is this doubling my income shit? My brother and I just finished our second year as partners and we split profits 50-50. And truth be told I earn more than 50% of EV because I play slightly higher limits sometimes and because I track a second table when I can, bumping up my expected value. So I earn a bit more than 50% but we spllt 50-50. So it actually costs me a little by having him as my partner and that is the way I wanted it while he gains experience.

Unfortunately we will not be partnering next year. He wants to play on his own and answer to no one other than himself. I think he is passing on a good opportunity for him, but I respect his decision and will still help him every way I can.

So just stop this complete bullshit about stuff you have no idea about, Blackhole. It's fucking retarded and you are a complete low-life for doing it.

[mickeycrimm]

Okay mickeycrimm I'm going to humor you one more time.

Let's say YOU were the guy peeking under the cup and YOU were asking me the question. What would the answer be as YOU looked under the cup?

This is what you don't get:

You don't even need a damn cup. If one of the dice is a two it's 1 in 11 the other is a two.

[Alan Mendelson]

Okay mickeycrimm I'm going to humor you one more time.

Let's say YOU were the guy peeking under the cup and YOU were asking me the question. What would the answer be as YOU looked under the cup?

This is what you don't get:

You don't even need a damn cup. If one of the dice is a two it's 1 in 11 the other is a two.

Now I can laugh my ass off.

[The Boz]

Okay mickeycrimm I'm going to humor you one more time.

Let's say YOU were the guy peeking under the cup and YOU were asking me the question. What would the answer be as YOU looked under the cup?

This is what you don't get:

You don't even need a damn cup. If one of the dice is a two it's 1 in 11 the other is a two.

Now I can laugh my ass off.

Let me fix that for you.... Now I can laugh my...broke, family screwing, piece of shit carpet cleaning scam promoting, losing Video Poker playing, bad husband multiple timed....ass off.

Feel free to add anything I missed.

[mickeycrimm]

Okay mickeycrimm I'm going to humor you one more time.

Let's say YOU were the guy peeking under the cup and YOU were asking me the question. What would the answer be as YOU looked under the cup?

This is what you don't get:

You don't even need a damn cup. If one of the dice is a two it's 1 in 11 the other is a two.

Now I can laugh my ass off.

The Wizard offered you a 9 for 1 payoff everytime the other die is a 2. By YOUR ALTERNATIVE math you should clean him out. By YOUR ALTERNATIVE MATH if he plays long enough you would take all of that 2.4 million he got for the site. But you chickenshitted out on the challenge. It's an easy one to do now that you both live in Las Vegas. If you believe so much that you are right why don't you take him up on the challenge? I'll tell you why. Because you know you are wrong but won't publicly admit it.

[mickeycrimm]

Okay mickeycrimm I'm going to humor you one more time.

Let's say YOU were the guy peeking under the cup and YOU were asking me the question. What would the answer be as YOU looked under the cup?

This is what you don't get:

You don't even need a damn cup. If one of the dice is a two it's 1 in 11 the other is a two.

Now I can laugh my ass off.

Okay, Mr. Rocket Scientist, explain to all of us how using the cup to hide the results of the roll changes the roll, or the odds, in any way. Explain it to us like we are 3rd graders.

[Alan Mendelson]

You don't even need a damn cup. If one of the dice is a two it's 1 in 11 the other is a two.

Let me be gentle. It's only because of the cup and the inability to know which of two dice shows a two that the answer is 1/11. But the "peeker" sees that at least one die is a 2 so for the peeker his answer is 1/6. That was the trick in the question. If you put yourself in the position of the peeker your answer is 1/6. But if you put yourself in the position of the peeker's friend you would say 1/11.

Now, I politely and gently explained it to you. Please be polite and gentle in your response.

[mickeycrimm]

You don't even need a damn cup. If one of the dice is a two it's 1 in 11 the other is a two.

Let me be gentle. It's only because of the cup and the inability to know which of two dice shows a two that the answer is 1/11. But the "peeker" sees that at least one die is a 2 so for the peeker his answer is 1/6. That was the trick in the question. If you put yourself in the position of the peeker your answer is 1/6. But if you put yourself in the position of the peeker's friend you would say 1/11.

Now, I politely and gently explained it to you. Please be polite and gentle in your response.

Okay, I'll be gentle. It doesn't matter if you use a cup or not. If at least one of the dice is a two it's 1 in 11 the other die is a 2.

[Alan Mendelson]

You don't even need a damn cup. If one of the dice is a two it's 1 in 11 the other is a two.

Let me be gentle. It's only because of the cup and the inability to know which of two dice shows a two that the answer is 1/11. But the "peeker" sees that at least one die is a 2 so for the peeker his answer is 1/6. That was the trick in the question. If you put yourself in the position of the peeker your answer is 1/6. But if you put yourself in the position of the peeker's friend you would say 1/11.

Now, I politely and gently explained it to you. Please be polite and gentle in your response.

Okay, I'll be gentle. It doesn't matter if you use a cup or not. If at least one of the dice is a two it's 1 in 11 the other die is a 2.

Is that your final answer?

[coach belly]

The Wizard offered you a 9 for 1 payoff everytime the other die is a 2. why don't you take him up on the challenge?

I'll take this bet...but not with Shack...it has to be another VCT member,
all are eligible, whether you are in the 1 in 11 or the 1 in 6 camp.

My only non-negotiable condition is that we roll and settle up face-to-face.

What were the Wizard's terms with Alan?

I'll be in LV for a week for Punk Rock Bowling in May,
so that gives us almost 6 months to set parameters.

[mickeycrimm]

The Wizard offered you a 9 for 1 payoff everytime the other die is a 2. why don't you take him up on the challenge?

I'll take this bet...but not with Shack...it has to be another VCT member,
all are eligible, whether you are in the 1 in 11 or the 1 in 6 camp.

My only non-negotiable condition is that we roll and settle up face-to-face.

What were the Wizard's terms with Alan?

I'll be in LV for a week for Punk Rock Bowling in May,
so that gives us almost 6 months to set parameters.

The Wizard was being generous. 9 for 1 means a longer drawn out affair. 8 for 1 means you put Alan out of his misery a lot sooner.

[mickeycrimm]

Let me be gentle. It's only because of the cup and the inability to know which of two dice shows a two that the answer is 1/11. But the "peeker" sees that at least one die is a 2 so for the peeker his answer is 1/6. That was the trick in the question. If you put yourself in the position of the peeker your answer is 1/6. But if you put yourself in the position of the peeker's friend you would say 1/11.

Now, I politely and gently explained it to you. Please be polite and gentle in your response.

Okay, I'll be gentle. It doesn't matter if you use a cup or not. If at least one of the dice is a two it's 1 in 11 the other die is a 2.

Is that your final answer?

It's been my final answer since the beginning. "At least one of the dice is a two" is the key phrase in the original problem. The cup is meaningless. When at least one of the dice is a 2 it's 1 in 11 the other die will be a 2.

You can play the game on your kitchen table. It's easy to track with pencil and paper. With a big enough sample space you will see that you are averaging very close to rolling snake eyes once for every 11 times at least one of the dice is a 2. That is why Wizard offered you 9 for 1. But like I said, he was being very generous. In the short term you might show a profit. But in the long term you will lose.

The "two dice problem" would make a good craps side bet. That is, good for the house. It's certainly deceptive enough to get action. At a 9 to 1 payoff it would carry a house advantage of 9%.

[kewlJ]

In the short term you might show a profit. But in the long term you will lose.

I wonder just how many times you, I, one of the other AP's, even Dan Druff, or just about anyone with even a little understanding of the math has typed these words on this site?

This in a nutshell is what almost every discussion boils down to. It would be funny.....if it wasn't so sad.

[Alan Mendelson]

Mickeycrimm wrote "It's been my final answer since the beginning. "At least one of the dice is a two" is the key phrase in the original problem. The cup is meaningless. When at least one of the dice is a 2 it's 1 in 11 the other die will be a 2."

Mickeycrimm you should go back and reread the discussions. What made the answer 1/11 is that it was not known which die showed a two. But when one specific die is known to be a two, then the answer is 1/6.

Roll two dice on your floor and see that one die has settled on two. Does the second die have six sides or 11?

Now put two dice in a cup and hand the cup to your friend. Your friend tells you truthfully that at least one die shows a 2. Now the answer is 1/11 because you don't know which die has been identified.

In the original problem if you took the position of the peeker (which I did) the answer is 1/6.

And the reason I never took the Wizards bet was because 2-2 is a 1/36 event. It is not 1/6, or 1/11.

[BadBeet]

Wait, this dice bit is still going on?

The problem is with the question... There will never be a real world situation where this would happen. One person is looking at it one way and the other is looking at it the another way..

The first dice doesn't matter... Forget about the first dice that is seen... What is the chances of one dice showing a 2? Doesn't matter if another dice shows two or not, the way the question is asked is what is backwards...

[mickeycrimm]

You both are trying to change the original problem as it was described to get a different answer. I will state this as an unequivocal position on it:

ROLL TWO DICE AND WHEN AT LEAST ONE OF THE DICE IS A TWO IT'S 1 IN 11 THAT THE OTHER DIE IS A 2.

That will never change and I wish it were a bet on a craps table worded:

IF AT LEAST ONE OF THE DICE IS A 2 AND THE OTHER DIE IS ALSO A 2-- PAYS 9 TO 1. Then Alan could beat his head against the wall trying to beat it.

It would be 9% house edge. Game designers always submit their new games to others for mathematical analysis to insure they haven't made any math errors. You can do the same with this one. I actually submitted this to a group of college math professors online when it was first being argued here. There was a conversation about it among them and they all had the same conclusion: WHEN AT LEAST ONE OF THE DICE IS A 2 IT'S 1 IN 11 THAT THE OTHER DIE IS A 2.

One of them actually came to this site to try to explain it but after getting a dose of Alan's whacked out math and non-sensical statements over it--and insisting that he, Alan, was right, the math professor said to hell with it and left.