I am not going to even go there Eliot because it was a very abnormal year.
First, I don't track play by hours. Haven't for many years. My short session style has me playing many "parts" hours, so it is easier to track rounds played, plus isn't that what really matters? I use rounds played to figure EV for each session and then keep a running total of EV throughout the year.
Second, I don't concern myself win "win rate" as much as I track EV. I call it accumulated EV, adding up the EV for every session into a running total. And my actual win for the year, usually, as in 14 of 17 years comes in very close to accumulated EV, usually well under half a standard deviation, some years almost spot on. The fact that 3 years, 1 winning, and 2 losing have been outliers, is absolutely fine with me, it is within the "normal" range, but not numbers I am going to hold up as an example. I think I am pretty fair with sharing "bad years" as I am going through them so aspiring card counters can see what that looks like. By the numbers last year was accumulated EV of $77k and an actual win of $14k.
I am also not going to hold last year up as an example, because I purposely adopted a style of play that would increase variance, playing higher stakes than I ever had, but less rounds played, less than half the normal number of rounds. This is a recipe for disaster (high variance). I did this for several reasons, but let's just say mostly because I decide the pit folks would be busy with other new covid responsibilities and I thought I could get away with it without drawing extra attention. And that worked well, But it just so happens the higher variance bit me in the ass as I hit a pretty negative run almost immediately upon moving up in stakes. In large part at one single property. It would have been sweet if I had either hit a positive run or just normal variance just when I moved up, but it didn't work that way and I am fine with that, but not going to hold that out as an example of a so called, "normal" year. It was anything but.
Can I ask why you would even ask that? Do you feel I have not been fair in how I depicted my career in terms of sharing both good and bad years? I think I have been as honest and fair as I can be. I have had 5 different period now where I have gone through 40k Plus downswing that lasted for months. 4,5, in one case 6 months. That is not losing every day, but usually a significant downturn and months long climb back to where you were (last ATH). Honestly, I don't know any other player that has shared in such detail as he is going through it. Sometimes to my own detriment.
Dan Druff: "there's no question that MDawg has been an obnoxious braggart, and has rubbed a ton of people the wrong way. There's something missing from his stories. Either they're fabricated, grossly exaggerated, or largely incomplete".
I am not disagreeing. I am fine with that. Actually still enjoy the game...well most days and years.
Ya know, you remind me of someone else, always taking the opportunity to remind card counters of our place on the ladder, or should I say our place in the pond (salamander).
jbjb, we are all ware of what you do, playing to a higher edge. We know you can't be bothered with card counting, as it is beneath you. You don't need to build yourself up by attempting to tear others down.
Dan Druff: "there's no question that MDawg has been an obnoxious braggart, and has rubbed a ton of people the wrong way. There's something missing from his stories. Either they're fabricated, grossly exaggerated, or largely incomplete".
Not tearing anyone down. But why make chump change when you can easily make big bank?
What "higher edge?"Originally Posted by kewlJ
Does he own a casino?
What, Me Worry?
Are you offering a position?
The answer is because I still like and enjoy what I am doing. Can most people say that? Can you say that?
AND if I were only about making bigger bank, I could do that right within the wheelhouse of what I am doing. I have the BR to play much larger stakes and make bigger money. I could travel around the country playing high stakes for 6 months to a year, wearing out my welcome, like KC and other have done. That is not what I am interested in. I am looking for a little longevity. What I consider a decent living doing something I enjoy. Not spending nights in a hotel, RV or my car but in the comfort of my home, working as close to a normal schedule as possible in this field.
Dan Druff: "there's no question that MDawg has been an obnoxious braggart, and has rubbed a ton of people the wrong way. There's something missing from his stories. Either they're fabricated, grossly exaggerated, or largely incomplete".
Dan Druff: "there's no question that MDawg has been an obnoxious braggart, and has rubbed a ton of people the wrong way. There's something missing from his stories. Either they're fabricated, grossly exaggerated, or largely incomplete".
I agree why make OneNickle(Chumpchange) when you can make the balling money like Grosjean.
jbjb, are you aware that I have done some holecarding? It is not like I haven't tried it. Probably my second or third year in Vegas, I found (not looking for but found) a very sloppy dealer at Circus Circus. I literally followed him around for a couple months, playing several times a week. Got to the point that I knew his schedule and had to set my alarm for odd times in the middle of the night to play with him. One day, I said "what the F am I doing? this isn't how I want to beat the casinos". And as I always say, there is nothing wrong with hole-carding. It is not illegal. It is not cheating. But I personally don't care for winning that way.
Dan Druff: "there's no question that MDawg has been an obnoxious braggart, and has rubbed a ton of people the wrong way. There's something missing from his stories. Either they're fabricated, grossly exaggerated, or largely incomplete".
Card counting and hole carding are all well and good, but it seems to me the best AP would be to have the dealer cooperating with the player.
Of course this would be a crime: WARNING!
But if someone has balls of brass and is willing to endure the consequences of failure, I submit "the sky is the limit."
Ka-ching!
Purely for shits and giggels, if YOU were a player and had a dealer as a confederate, how would you structure the scam to maximize profit while minimizing the chance of being ddetected?
What, Me Worry?
Yes but you certainly understand the problem with that. Example, small sample size. Guy plays 10 sessions of say 100 rounds each . Let's say he is red chip player, spreading $10-$80. He wins 8 or 9 of those sessions (even 7) for a total win of $1800. Is his real win rate (expectation) $180 per session or is it probably $10-$12 per session.
So if you are asking me to share results from my worse year (or worse year since way back when I was playing small limits), I don't think that is exactly fair. or representative. I am happy to say my actual results were 14k vs accumulated EV or expectation of 77k. I think that says it all. And any new player reading (not likely here) ought to get a feel for worst case or very bad possibilities.
Dan Druff: "there's no question that MDawg has been an obnoxious braggart, and has rubbed a ton of people the wrong way. There's something missing from his stories. Either they're fabricated, grossly exaggerated, or largely incomplete".
What is wrong with you, Monet? Seriously? You know there is absolutely nothing wrong with that. The casino gave me free play.....I played it. I don't know what their formula is?
Of all the things to bust on me about. I think if the Nuns from the local church were making their regular visit to the casino, even THEY would download and play the free play that was given to them.
Dan Druff: "there's no question that MDawg has been an obnoxious braggart, and has rubbed a ton of people the wrong way. There's something missing from his stories. Either they're fabricated, grossly exaggerated, or largely incomplete".
Usually when things like this occur other people wind up with the same thing happening. The most recent being San Manuel casino a few months ago. With a 50x Freeplay glitch I am very surprised that no one else even knows or heard about it. Just saying.
Dan Druff: "there's no question that MDawg has been an obnoxious braggart, and has rubbed a ton of people the wrong way. There's something missing from his stories. Either they're fabricated, grossly exaggerated, or largely incomplete".
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