The WoV Thread

[jbjb]

Funny how these "quit while ahead" advocates are habitual losing gamblers.

Ah, but John Patrick is a believer in stop limits.

He says: “70% of people at the casino will make money and get ahead. 90% of those 70% will stay too long and lose it all back”.

John Patrick is a nutcase.

[monet]

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gamb...f-mdawg-ii/95/

lol @ the Wizard.
He outed himself.
Math Wiz My Ass... RIP.

No Fucking Way in Heaven, Earth or Hell that 97% or 70% of players are ahead before losing.
That's the Fucking biggest bunch of BullShit I ever read.
Fuck Wiz and Fuck UNLV and anyone else who is lying.
In hindsight, they publish this bullshit to generate more ploppies.
Fucking Wiz is in on the scam but we all knew that long ago.
97% lol lol lol... Fucking Casino would be broke in a heartbeat if that shit was the case.
That's like that article MendleBread wrote years ago about how 100% VP isn't 100% payback lol lol lol.
Imagine the bean counters allowing everyone to be ahead 97% or 70% off the jump but don't worry they will give it all back... that's our mathematical strategy lol!?
We went to University for 6 years to figure this out lol lol lol.

Of course I don't have context.
Wiz could of been being sarcastic.
But we do know that MendleBread constantly pushes shit like this.

The other day I was getting my ass handed to me on Video Poker.
Some guy behind me was talking to his friend about how he beats roulette.
He was saying after black comes up two times in a row you have an 80% chance for black to come up again lol.
Fucking Retards!

[Don Perignom]

No Fucking Way in Heaven, Earth or Hell that 97% or 70% of players are ahead before losing.
That's the Fucking biggest bunch of BullShit I ever read.
Fuck Wiz and Fuck UNLV and anyone else who is lying.
In hindsight, they publish this bullshit to generate more ploppies.
Fucking Wiz is in on the scam but we all knew that long ago.
97% lol lol lol... Fucking Casino would be broke in a heartbeat if that shit was the case.
That's like that article MendleBread wrote years ago about how 100% VP isn't 100% payback lol lol lol.
Imagine the bean counters allowing everyone to be ahead 97% or 70% off the jump but don't worry they will give it all back... that's our mathematical strategy lol!?
Fucking Retards!

Wiz guessed "higher than 70%."

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/ques.../2/#post100868

The bean counters are not allowing everyone to be ahead 97% or 70%. They're allowing 70% to be ahead by any amount >0.

[Don Perignom]

This guy pretends that he saw 18 yos in a row and can't wrap his brain around the concept that some people exploit mail profitably. Why wouldn't be believe he'd be up lifetime if he "just knew when to stop".

Question for longtime forum regulars on this topic. Has anyone with a strongly held view ever changed their opinion?

I doubt it. Their opinion is logical to them, and in the real world nearly everyone else agrees.

[Alan Mendelson]

So what's your point? Only APs are ever ahead? No one except ten people get ahead? Everyone is ahead? AP club members only are ahead? Only long term players are ahead? Only counters are ahead? Only hole carders are ahead?

Someone give the correct numbers please? All I see here are insults thrown at estimates and surveys?

Really, boys. Tsk tsk.

And Monet what article about 100% VP?? I've had a lot on my mind the last 70 years and I don't remember that one.

And please guys... what's the correct figure that everyone else is wrong about? It must be earth shattering to get you all riled up.

[tableplay]

Question for longtime forum regulars on this topic. Has anyone with a strongly held view ever changed their opinion?
I doubt it. Their opinion is logical to them, and in the real world nearly everyone else agrees.

Assuming I qualify as a longtime forum regular, I would say that I changed my opinion from the following strongly held view:
I used to think that strongly held views could be changed.

[kewlJ]

Some of the numbers quoted, 97% and 90% are just crazy. That is a case of selective memory. 70%? I don't know maybe? It depends on what you are defining as ahead? If a 25 cent video poker player is $2.50 a head after a couple rounds and goes on to lose $200 for the day, would that count as being ahead? If so, yeah, maybe 70%. But if you are talking about something substantial, no.

It's funny, only non-AP's say that stupid line like "I was up $160 and should have quit". AP's playing with an advantage, any advantage, any game, just don't think like that. If you are playing at an advantage, you play. Your session or day ending should not be determined by any kind of stop limit. This is one of the major differences between AP's and non-APs.

[Don Perignom]

So what's your point?

My point was that there's no point in discussing it again.

My personal opinion is that you can't quit your way to an advantage because mathematically the losing sessions will outweigh the winners.

I used to think that strongly held views could be changed.

[kewlJ]

Regarding Monet's statements on Wizard: Shackleford just no longer cares! Sadly it is THAT simple. He got his money and just no longer cares that the forum that bears his name has become a total joke as far as gambling and mathematics. The forum is now a ploppy gambling forums discussing and embracing long held voodoo, long ago disproven gambling nonsense.

[Alan Mendelson]

So what's your point?

My point was that there's no point in discussing it again.

My personal opinion is that you can't quit your way to an advantage because mathematically the losing sessions will outweigh the winners.

I used to think that strongly held views could be changed.

Dont discuss it again? LOL

It wasn't discussed here again till Kewlj brought it up.

He imported the discussion from another forum.

In fact this entire thread imports discussions from another forum.

LOL

[kewlJ]

My personal opinion is that you can't quit your way to an advantage because mathematically the losing sessions will outweigh the winners.

This has been explained to Alan and others that hold this belief a million times. Stop limits change nothing! The exception being if a player manages to get ahead short-term (positive variance) and then stops.....FOREVER! That is the only way a stop limit does anything.

Another voodoo belief that these people hang on to is that progression wagering changes anything. If you are playing at a disadvantage, the more you bet means the more you will lose. How any one could think differently is way beyond me.

I asked Alan a question a couple days ago which he didn't answer. And while it was directed at Alan, because he is a long time gambler now with these voodoo gambling beliefs, I would ask anyone holding these beliefs that has played many years. How is that working for you? Are you ahead lifetime, using stop limits and other long ago disproven nonsense?

Most ploppie type players, including my grandfather answer that question with "I am about even." So the next question should be, well then what happened to all your money.

[kewlJ]

Stop limits (quitting while ahead) are not stop limits unless the player stops playing forever! Otherwise, it is really a pause limit and changes nothing except that the next round played will be tomorrow or next week instead of 2 minutes from now.

[Don Perignom]

He got his money and just no longer cares that the forum that bears his name has become a total joke as far as gambling and mathematics.

The forum has drifted, but in my limited observation the Wizard has maintained impressive standards for mathematical accuracy of anything with his name on it. His WOO site is incredible, and he continues updating regularly.

This has been explained to Alan and others that hold this belief a million times.

Let's try for two million.

[Don Perignom]

It wasn't discussed here again till Kewlj brought it up.

And I think he already knew your answer before he asked the question. But we're not playing for real money here.

[Alan Mendelson]

Stop limits (quitting while ahead) are not stop limits unless the player stops playing forever! Otherwise, it is really a pause limit and changes nothing except that the next round played will be tomorrow or next week instead of 2 minutes from now.

You need to check your definitions.

A stop limit is a point where you decide to stop betting or investing for whatever time period you choose.

It has nothing to do with altering any odds or disadvantage or advantage.

It doesnt alter the math of any game.

It's a personal decision based on your own parameters.

Why are you trying to create issues that don't exist? Why do you have to turn everything into an argument?

Think about this: you can set a stop limit when your bladder bag is full or when your catheter starts leaking.

[The Boz]

And for anyone who wonders why Chrissy Mitchell continues to find suckers to give him money, I present Example 1, Mr Alan.

Basically he is saying use Chrissy Martingale system and you will be up at one point and then just quit.

Chrissy even sells a coloring book showing how you can start with less than $100 and within a year you will be a millionaire within a year by doing exactly what Alan believes.

Here is the link Alan if you want to buy it.

https://www.amazon.com/Millionaire-B...s=books&sr=1-1

All you have to do is quit when ahead each day and increase the bets each day. Easy peasy.

Dude must love being a punching bag more than the drunk guy who fucked with Mike Tyson on the plane yesterday.

[Alan Mendelson]

And for anyone who wonders why Chrissy Mitchell continues to find suckers to give him money, I present Example 1, Mr Alan.

Basically he is saying use Chrissy Martingale system and you will be up at one point and then just quit.

Chrissy even sells a coloring book showing how you can start with less than $100 and within a year you will be a millionaire within a year by doing exactly what Alan believes.

Here is the link Alan if you want to buy it.

https://www.amazon.com/Millionaire-B...s=books&sr=1-1

All you have to do is quit when ahead each day and increase the bets each day. Easy peasy.

Dude must love being a punching bag more than the drunk guy who fucked with Mike Tyson on the plane yesterday.

Yeah, like I said that?

Thanks Mr Bozo for more of your fabricated shit.

I see that I made a mistake coming back.

Janet was discharged from the hospital last night. We're back to daily outpatient visits.

Go back to your fictional sandbox antics.

[kewlJ]

Stop limits (quitting while ahead) are not stop limits unless the player stops playing forever! Otherwise, it is really a pause limit and changes nothing except that the next round played will be tomorrow or next week instead of 2 minutes from now.

You need to check your definitions.

A stop limit is a point where you decide to stop betting or investing for whatever time period you choose.

It has nothing to do with altering any odds or disadvantage or advantage.

It doesnt alter the math of any game.

It's a personal decision based on your own parameters.

Why are you trying to create issues that don't exist? Why do you have to turn everything into an argument?

Think about this: you can set a stop limit when your bladder bag is full or when your catheter starts leaking.

No, no Alan, I don't want to discuss your or anyone else's bladder.

It is good that you acknowledge that the stop limit doesn't effect the odds. But then why are you stopping?

If you drive to the casinos and set a limit that if I get ahead $200 I will stop and after 2 minutes you hit that, why are you stopping? To preserve what? Are you going to play again, in a few days? Next week?

It really is one big session Alan. And the best example I can give continues to be the roulette example I use frequently. Can a player walk into a casino, bet black and win 3 out of 4 and quit for the day? Absolutely! Can he do that every day for a year? Absolutely not. And his stopping after winning 3 of 4 spins for that day, change nothing about what the long-term results will be. He has preserved nothing...unless of course he never plays again after that first day.

[MisterV]

One problem with stop limits is that it defies human nature viz. gambling.

For disciplined players the following method might be a viable way to play and to avoid getting whacked badly:

Have win and loss limits in place, e.g. $50 each; if you lose $50 the session ends, walk, take a break.

If you win $50 then rat hole it and keep plugging away, using Patrick's "up and pull."

The key is discipline: I suspect most long term gamblers lack it and "go on tilt" occasionally, hastening their financial loss.

Of course it does not change the odds, it is a form of money management.

[coach belly]

If you drive to the casinos and set a limit that if I get ahead $200 I will stop and after 2 minutes you hit that, why are you stopping? To preserve what? Are you going to play again, in a few days?

Isn't this similar to what players do when they redeem freeplay and leave without further play?