The WoV Thread

[kewlJ]

I don't have a problem with players playing stop limits. Players playing negative expectation games should have a stop limit, otherwise they will sit there and lose all their money. The problem I have is with -EV players thinking thinks like stop limits and progression wagering, and other voodoo concepts can somehow make for a winning strategy. And there are a lot out there (and on these forums) that do. And some thing stacking several voodoo, long disproven strategies on top of one another is the key.

I guess we are just into "you can lead a horse to water...." territory here.

[Alan Mendelson]

Kewlj you stop because you want to. You either lost as much as you can tolerate or you won enough to make you happy and satisfied for the day.

Can you overcome the factors of fear and greed? Fear of losing or fear that the next player sitting at your machine will hit the jackpot or fear of missing the next monster roll or monster shoe?

And greed? Can you overcome the belief that you're destined to keep winning because you just had a good run?

[kewlJ]

If you drive to the casinos and set a limit that if I get ahead $200 I will stop and after 2 minutes you hit that, why are you stopping? To preserve what? Are you going to play again, in a few days?

Isn't this similar to what players do when they redeem freeplay and leave?

Absolutely NOT! The free play IS the mechanism that makes the play +EV.

[smurgerburger]

Kewlj you stop because you want to. You either lost as much as you can tolerate or you won enough to make you happy and satisfied for the day.

Can you overcome the factors of fear and greed? Fear of losing or fear that the next player sitting at your machine will hit the jackpot or fear of missing the next monster roll or monster shoe?

And greed? Can you overcome the belief that you're destined to keep winning because you just had a good run?

Why would you want to overcome your fear that you will lose in the long run if you play -EV games?

[kewlJ]

Kewlj you stop because you want to. You either lost as much as you can tolerate or you won enough to make you happy and satisfied for the day.

For blackjack, I have "exit triggers". That may sound similar to stop limits but it really is not. I have situation like a pre-determined negative count where conditions are no longer advantageous for me to continue. It has nothing to do with how much I have won or lost.

There also is a set of exit triggers that are based on preserving longevity, which again, really has nothing to do with whether I have won or lost.

Can you overcome the factors of fear and greed? Fear of losing or fear that the next player sitting at your machine will hit the jackpot or fear of missing the next monster roll or monster shoe?
And greed? Can you overcome the belief that you're destined to keep winning because you just had a good run?

Oh boy!!

[Alan Mendelson]

If you drive to the casinos and set a limit that if I get ahead $200 I will stop and after 2 minutes you hit that, why are you stopping? To preserve what? Are you going to play again, in a few days?

Isn't this similar to what players do when they redeem freeplay and leave?

Absolutely NOT! The free play IS the mechanism that makes the play +EV.

Coach is correct that using free play and then quitting is a type of stop loss.

Kewlj is correct that this method is +EV.

And there's nothing to argue about here.

[coach belly]

The free play IS the mechanism that makes the play +EV.

Doesn't the expected value depend on the initial play that generated the offer?

It seems like you are disconnecting the freeplay redemption from previous play, as if it's not all one big session.

[Alan Mendelson]

Kewlj you stop because you want to. You either lost as much as you can tolerate or you won enough to make you happy and satisfied for the day.

Can you overcome the factors of fear and greed? Fear of losing or fear that the next player sitting at your machine will hit the jackpot or fear of missing the next monster roll or monster shoe?

And greed? Can you overcome the belief that you're destined to keep winning because you just had a good run?

Why would you want to overcome your fear that you will lose in the long run if you play -EV games?

I'm not the one who keeps playing. I can tell myself when to leave.

You're asking the wrong person.

[kewlJ]

The free play IS the mechanism that makes the play +EV.

Doesn't the expected value depend on the initial play that generated the offer?

It seems like you are disconnecting the freeplay redemption from previous play, as if it's not all one big session.

Absolutely the free play is part of the play that generated it. It is the whole amount of play and free play that must be +EV and that is getting harder and harder for me with reduced mailers amounts. This is a very, very slim advantage AND, it is like part of your return is always out there to be collected.

In past years, with good mailers this used to account for 20% of my income regularly. Some years when I won a big drawing in which entries were from the play to generate the free play, it was even more. I hit several 5 figure drawings including a truck and a years mortgage payments.

This year, almost 1/3 through the year this mailer free play stuff has generated $1400 in profit. Of course I have some future mailers yet. It just is no longer much of a play for me, since casinos here in Vegas began cutting back, about 4 years ago (even before covid).

I would say the biggest benefit for me now a days is all the points earned provide free meals for my brother and I.

[coach belly]

Absolutely the free play is part of the play that generated it. It is the whole amount of play and free play that must be +EV.

Will you stipulate that the majority of freeplay offered does not result in a +EV play, when considering the previous play that generated the offer?

[Alan Mendelson]

Absolutely the free play is part of the play that generated it. It is the whole amount of play and free play that must be +EV.

Will you stipulate that the majority of freeplay offered does not result in a +EV play, when considering the previous play that generated the offer?

Let me take a stab at this.

All free play that you run thru once is +EV.

But if it cost you more than the value of the free play to get the free play your bottom line could be negative.

I say "could be negative" because you could hit a big winner on free play. I've hit royals on free play, but I lost money earning the free play.

[smurgerburger]

Kewlj you stop because you want to. You either lost as much as you can tolerate or you won enough to make you happy and satisfied for the day.

Can you overcome the factors of fear and greed? Fear of losing or fear that the next player sitting at your machine will hit the jackpot or fear of missing the next monster roll or monster shoe?

And greed? Can you overcome the belief that you're destined to keep winning because you just had a good run?

Why would you want to overcome your fear that you will lose in the long run if you play -EV games?

I'm not the one who keeps playing. I can tell myself when to leave.

You're asking the wrong person.

You still don't understand. Why are you playing at all?

[Alan Mendelson]

One problem with stop limits is that it defies human nature viz. gambling.

For disciplined players the following method might be a viable way to play and to avoid getting whacked badly:

Have win and loss limits in place, e.g. $50 each; if you lose $50 the session ends, walk, take a break.

If you win $50 then rat hole it and keep plugging away, using Patrick's "up and pull."

The key is discipline: I suspect most long term gamblers lack it and "go on tilt" occasionally, hastening their financial loss.

Of course it does not change the odds, it is a form of money management.

This makes sense too including the last sentence. Well written MrV.

[Alan Mendelson]

Why would you want to overcome your fear that you will lose in the long run if you play -EV games?

I'm not the one who keeps playing. I can tell myself when to leave.

You're asking the wrong person.

You still don't understand. Why are you playing at all?

Why don't you just put me on ignore?

[kewlJ]

Will you stipulate that the majority of freeplay offered does not result in a +EV play, when considering the previous play that generated the offer?

I can't speak for others, but for me, the entirety of the play, the expected loss from -EV play needed to generate the free play offers and the free play amounts must be positive expectations or I won't do them.

[Alan Mendelson]

Will you stipulate that the majority of freeplay offered does not result in a +EV play, when considering the previous play that generated the offer?

I can't speak for others, but for me, the entirety of the play, the expected loss from -EV play needed to generate the free play offers and the free play amounts must be positive expectations or I won't do them.

There's nothing wrong with this. You only want to play +EV games to earn free play. Very good.

[kewlJ]

Will you stipulate that the majority of freeplay offered does not result in a +EV play, when considering the previous play that generated the offer?

I can't speak for others, but for me, the entirety of the play, the expected loss from -EV play needed to generate the free play offers and the free play amounts must be positive expectations or I won't do them.

There's nothing wrong with this. You only want to play +EV games to earn free play. Very good.

No that is not correct. I mostly play bonus poker which is -EV. But the amount of free play earned must overcome the expected loss, which for years it very easily did. key words: The entirety of the play.

[Alan Mendelson]

I can't speak for others, but for me, the entirety of the play, the expected loss from -EV play needed to generate the free play offers and the free play amounts must be positive expectations or I won't do them.

There's nothing wrong with this. You only want to play +EV games to earn free play. Very good.

No that is not correct. I mostly play bonus poker which is -EV. But the amount of free play earned must overcome the expected loss, which for years it very easily did. key words: The entirety of the play.

I dont disagree with this either because I play 8/5 bonus. Unfortunately my play isnt big enuf to generate anything more than $15 to $20 about five times per month.

Also in my case the amount of the free play doesnt fill the gap of the 8/5 Bonus expected return.

If your casino's free play award fills the gap (gives you 100% or better return) then good for you!

[coach belly]

I can't speak for others

I haven't asked you to speak for others.

Based on your knowledge of "how things work", will you stipulate that the majority of freeplay offered does not result in a +EV play, when considering the previous play that generated the offer?

[kewlJ]

I can't speak for others

I haven't asked you to speak for others.

Based on your knowledge of "how things work", will you stipulate that the majority of freeplay offered does not result in a +EV play, when considering the previous play that generated the offer?

No. That is 100% incorrect for me and my play.