The WoV Thread

[monet]

Congratulations to you Monet on the big win.

Nice of you and kewlJ to say.
Let's be honest.
These picks were posted the night beforehand at 10pm.
Everyone on this site who read my post could of made some money.
Everyone that has access to a Sportsbook that is.
Virtual or Brick and Mortar.

[redietz]

I gamble for fun, for excitement, not for a living.

I previously worked at a lucrative profession and invested wisely; this now allows me to now throw fists full of Franklins down the maw of tribal casinos' three reel slots without a real care in the world about my losses.

A pittance.

Am I a fool?

I get a kick out of gambling.

Maybe I should have spent it on crack or meth instead: at least then I'd be thinner.

You're no fool. You're not only honest but you're enjoying your successes in life. Be proud. Be happy youre not walking around a casino looking for abandoned credits and multipliers or you can't eat.

I dont say that flippantly either. When I was a regular poker player in LA I knew a WSOP bracelet winner who lived in his car, washed in the public restroom, and hustled to get buyins for daily $60 tournaments.

Yeah, I gave him a "chip for luck" at the cage and took him to dinner many times.

A real bracelet winner.

Alan you are dishing out (by saying this stuff) the opposite but maybe worse bias from what some people give to you here. A person won a bracelet. That's a demonstration of skill, although there are arguments about how high a level of skill. Anyway, winning the bracelet is a demonstration of skill. You can't take that away from him. And some people respect skill more than cash in the bank. For example, when Billy Walter recruited handicappers, he wasn't looking for the guys with cash in the bank. He was looking for people with verifiable track records in handicapping.

Stu Ungar blew boatloads on sports betting. He would have been perpetually broke without people propping him up. None of that really matters. He died badly, but he died as one of the greatest poker players ever, and a better gin rummy player.

What the bracelet winner does with his money is really none of your business, by my way of thinking. It means nothing. You are an award-winning journalist with many accomplishments to your credit. Your cash in the bank doesn't add or detract one iota from your accomplishments or having that reputation. What you do with your money is none of my business, unless you borrowed from me. Nothing you do with your money affects what you've accomplished in life, unless you run out of funds to put yourself on billboards or self sell a biography so people know about what you accomplished in life.

[Don Perignom]

Now run the numbers for the Flaming Sevens Reel Machines at the Golden Nugget.
And compare them to the Red Hot Sevens at the Fremont.
I can't wait because I know for a fact that the best Reel Machines at the Nugget are an 8% hold.

Hang on. I'm hitting myself in the head with frying pans to see which causes the most brain da

[Alan Mendelson]

So what's your point Redietz?
Did you congratulate Monet on his wins -- all of them on one ticket? That's a parlay, isn't it?

I'm not a sports bettor but I read a post on this forum about how difficult that is.

[monet]

So what's your point Redietz?
Did you congratulate Monet on his wins -- all of them on one ticket? That's a parlay, isn't it?

I'm not a sports bettor but I read a post on this forum about how difficult that is.

Winning and Posting a Sports Ticket is easy.
It really doesn't matter and the dollar amount doesn't matter.
What is special is posting the picks beforehand and cashing those picks.
I've done this plenty of times in the last 15 months or so with 2, 3, 4, 5 and 6 teamers.
That's the Fucking Hard part... posting before post time!
And it isn't just the NHL that I follow.
I've posted NFL, NHL and MLB picks.
I don't follow the NBA anymore since they Fucked up the game years ago.
And I hate all collegiate sports as they constantly shave.
The monster problem with the book is you have to constantly be in action and they don't give you anything for your total coin in.
I HATE the book.
Fuck them and their Nazi Drink Ticket Regime!

[tableplay]

I tried plugging in the formula, but Google Sheets gave me multiple "WTF are you trying to do" errors.

Don, I am just using the binomial probability density function for each instance where the player is ahead. This is followed by adding the probabilities up for each scenario where the player is ahead. Obviously my simple baccarat example assumes flat betting. Video poker is but one game a person might play and with all the variants and paytable differences, changes in bet sizes, and so on, it would require LaPlace's demon to get an accurate "being ahead" percentage. Is the player playing perfect discarding strategy for the theme and pay table ? Also if the player exits the casino and comes back five minutes later is that two "sessions" or one ? Well you know this all already, so having fun with simulations to see what's what is cool. The video poker app Playperfect Pro for the android operating system (I run it on Bluestacks for the PC or a blank android phone with no cell service) let's you calculate the probability of being ahead by a particular amount before ruin in a related concept to what you're doing. I am not affiliated with this product in any way shape or form.


edit:I think we have illustrated the bunk probability of being ahead enough to where it qualifies as beating a dead horse. It is subjective garbage anyway you look at it. Monet pointed this out from the get go of course. I may make a few comments about fun math stuff as it relates to this, but I have nothing else to add regarding this subjective media junk stat.

[monet]

Hang on. I'm hitting myself in the head with frying pans to see which causes the most brain da

No worries.
I suspect you want this 70% figure to be true.
Unfortunately, it's a lie.

[Don Perignom]

I suspect you want this 70% figure to be true.
Unfortunately, it's a lie.

I suspected you suspected it.

[Don Perignom]

When I joined the forum, I got a prompt to install the monet translator plugin, but I clicked "remind me later" and can't figure out how to get back to it.

[Don Perignom]

It is subjective garbage anyway you look at it. Monet pointed this out from the get go of course.

It wasn't "of course" to me. I had less than 70% comprehension of his comments.

[coach belly]

Name one.

You, you fucking retard.

You admitted to not having a clue just 10 hours ago.

But slots man. No fucking clue how people play those on the regular.

[Don Perignom]

The video poker app Playperfect Pro for the android operating system (I run it on Bluestacks for the PC or a blank android phone with no cell service) let's you calculate the probability of being ahead by a particular amount before ruin in a related concept to what you're doing.

Thanks! I've contemplated the purchase. I wouldn't buy it specifically for quit-when-ahead research, but it has useful features also.

I have a quantity-not-quality computer setup, so I don't have any one good system to run something like Bluestacks. When I was trying your formula in Google Sheets, it was doing stuff like displaying 0 when the actual was a very small decimal value, and for some of the other extreme numbers, #NUM! which I took to be an error. It's probably not the ideal tool for the task.

[tableplay]

The video poker app Playperfect Pro for the android operating system (I run it on Bluestacks for the PC or a blank android phone with no cell service) let's you calculate the probability of being ahead by a particular amount before ruin in a related concept to what you're doing.

Thanks! I've contemplated the purchase. I wouldn't buy it specifically for quit-when-ahead research, but it has useful features also.

I have a quantity-not-quality computer setup, so I don't have any one good system to run something like Bluestacks. When I was trying your formula in Google Sheets, it was doing stuff like displaying 0 when the actual was a very small decimal value, and for some of the other extreme numbers, #NUM! which I took to be an error. It's probably not the ideal tool for the task.

I'm sure google sheets has this stat function, but I just use the Excel binomdist function.

[tableplay]

It is subjective garbage anyway you look at it. Monet pointed this out from the get go of course.

It wasn't "of course" to me. I had less than 70% comprehension of his comments.

The post linked to below makes it quite clear to me what Monet's disposition is on this subject (YMMV):
https://vegascasinotalk.com/forum/sh...l=1#post141123

[Don Perignom]

The post linked to below makes it quite clear to me what Monet's disposition is on this subject (YMMV):
https://vegascasinotalk.com/forum/sh...l=1#post141123

Here's the word salad:

The numbers are obviously reversed and anyone who believes that 70% or 97% of players are up from jump street don't understand what the drop is.

Which numbers are reversed?

Then comes the slang.

I think I understand from all comments that the discussion annoys him, but he's also (apparently) staking out the territory that 70% is an impossibly high number for the measurement of players ahead at any point in a session. I haven't been persuaded of that.

[MisterV]

A person won a bracelet. That's a demonstration of skill, although there are arguments about how high a level of skill. Anyway, winning the bracelet is a demonstration of skill. You can't take that away from him. And some people respect skill more than cash in the bank.

There is no question that Stu Unger had great skill ... at poker.

But poker isn't the game we all play here now, is it?

I'm talking about the biggest game of all: life.

We are a capitalist society, and the objective measure of someone's success is how much money they've earned ... and managed to hang on to.

The sad thing is that degenerate gamblers like Unger seems to have been are boom and bust, which is a far from satisfactory way to live; how can you provide a good, stable life for your family that way, let alone a good life for yourself, when your income / assets have such wide swings?

There are other measures of success, the key one being how your family and acquaintances think of you, or what "good things" you've done for the community, but at the end of the day "Money talks; bullshit walks."

[kewlJ]

We are a capitalist society, and the objective measure of someone's success is how much money they've earned ... and managed to hang on to.

I couldn't disagree with you more, MrV. The ultimate measure of success is happiness, both to yourself and those around you that you care about. Some of the wealthiest people in the world seem to be some of the most unhappy people. I try to avoid politics, but the former president, a very wealthy man, is without a doubt one of the unhappiest people I have ever seen. I would say the same for this Mdog character. I don't know how much money he and his family have but it clearly isn't enough for him to achieve happiness. What some of these people seek, the admiration of others, money simply can't buy. And that goes for many Hollywood and sports world type very wealthy people as well.

On the flip side, I have encountered some of the happiest, well-adjusted people that have very little.

[redietz]

A person won a bracelet. That's a demonstration of skill, although there are arguments about how high a level of skill. Anyway, winning the bracelet is a demonstration of skill. You can't take that away from him. And some people respect skill more than cash in the bank.

There is no question that Stu Unger had great skill ... at poker.

But poker isn't the game we all play here now, is it?

I'm talking about the biggest game of all: life.

We are a capitalist society, and the objective measure of someone's success is how much money they've earned ... and managed to hang on to.

The sad thing is that degenerate gamblers like Unger seems to have been are boom and bust, which is a far from satisfactory way to live; how can you provide a good, stable life for your family that way, let alone a good life for yourself, when your income / assets have such wide swings?

There are other measures of success, the key one being how your family and acquaintances think of you, or what "good things" you've done for the community, but at the end of the day "Money talks; bullshit walks."

Capitalists, like Christians, tend to overestimate their ubiquitousness. Do the math.

[MisterV]

I don't really disagree with you KJ.

Note I said "objective measure of success."

The criteria you bring up are inapplicable as they are not objective, they are subjective.

Question: do you think Stu Unger was happy when he was broke as a joke and didn't know where his next meal would come from?

In this country people need to have enough money to maintain a home / lifestyle and all that goes with it: food, clothing, transportation, health care: or else the lack of same will likely cause misery, woe, and worry.

I'm not saying money causes happiness, I am saying the lack of money causes misery when you cannot even meet your basic needs, and that is failure 101.

[mickeycrimm]

Mickeycrimm I would venture that 90+% of Vegas gamblers are not making even money bets. My guess is 90+% of Vegas gamblers are at slot machines. Because of the pays on slots there's no need to win multiple bets or successive bets to be ahead.

A slot machine is either in a static state or a variable state of payback. The variable states are the ones we AP's work. So excluding AP'able slots he expectation of a bet on a slot machine is less than the size of the bet. If it's a 90% machine then the bet is worth 90% of itself.

A static state slot machine with a -10% EV cannot be programmed for 70% of players to be ahead at some point in a session.