2018 start

[kewlJ]

I have started 2018 with 5 consecutive + $1000 days. But oddly enough only 1 over $2000 and that was only $2400. So no really big wins.

$1000 is roughly 2.5 max bets for most games, so $1000+ days aren't unusual or anything, but I am guessing it won't continue for the year. Playing 250-300 days a year, it would be nice though!

Maybe I'll shoot for 18 in a row. What are the odds on that?

[RS__]

Start of 2018 hasn't been bad for me either.

Maybe I'll shoot for 18 in a row. What are the odds on that?

If you say it happened, then you shouldn't be questioned. That's how it works around here. Wait, are you an AP? Okay, never mind, then it works the exact opposite of that.

[kewlJ]

If you say it happened, then you shouldn't be questioned. That's how it works around here. Wait, are you an AP? Okay, never mind, then it works the exact opposite of that.

Isn't that funny the way THAT works.

Start of 2018 hasn't been bad for me either.

You know what isn't funny...I kind of rushed to get back playing at the end of 2017. When I found out about my medical situation in mid October, I initially figured I was done playing for the year. And I would have been, had I been playing solo. But with 2017, the first year I had a blackjack partner, I felt I owed it to him, to get back as quickly as possible and try to earn a bit more EV for the year.

So I pushed myself pretty hard to get back and play 3 weeks in December. I played as much as I was able to during those 3 weeks and earned $5500 in EV. And you know what that translated to in winnings? $137.50!

So now a new year and the winnings are coming a little easier than the EV for the moment. There is no rhyme or reason.

[kewlJ]

Just to update: That $1000+ winning streak stopped at 5. Day 6 (of work) for the year was actually a significant losing day that wiped out all 5 of those small wins. The life of blackjack.

I have since rebounded slightly back into the black, but not exactly a quick start to the year that it's always 'nice' to have.

[Alan Mendelson]

Just to update: That $1000+ winning streak stopped at 5. Day 6 (of work) for the year was actually a significant losing day that wiped out all 5 of those small wins. The life of blackjack.

I have since rebounded slightly back into the black, but not exactly a quick start to the year that it's always 'nice' to have.

Why didn't you use a stop loss on Day 6?

If being an AP is a business why wouldn't you operate like a business?

[kewlJ]

Why didn't you use a stop loss on Day 6?

If being an AP is a business why wouldn't you operate like a business?

Stop loss...oh good grief! I have too much to say about stop limits...can't do it from my phone. Will post more later.

[jbjb]

Why didn't you use a stop loss on Day 6?

If being an AP is a business why wouldn't you operate like a business?

Stop loss...oh good grief! I have too much to say about stop limits...can't do it from my phone. Will post more later.

Don't waste your time. He'll never understand.

[kewlJ]

Don't waste your time. He'll never understand.

Yep, you were right, jbjb.

[monet]

Just to update: That $1000+ winning streak stopped at 5. Day 6 (of work) for the year was actually a significant losing day that wiped out all 5 of those small wins. The life of blackjack.

I have since rebounded slightly back into the black, but not exactly a quick start to the year that it's always 'nice' to have.

Why didn't you use a stop loss on Day 6?

If being an AP is a business why wouldn't you operate like a business?

Perhaps this will shed some light on your question and maybe it won't. I hardly have been reading any forums in the last week or so and most likely will not be participating very much in the near future. Some reasons are because I realize that I am not able to really educate anyone on these forums and if someone is listening and getting educated by my posts that basically means I am giving away too much free information.

I don't know if you play poker but I am sure that most of you have in one time or another played this game since it is one of the most popular games in America and it has been that way for over a century. Try to imagine that you play poker 8 to 12 hours every day and you play with some friendly, wild billionaire who does not care about money and buys in 300 dollars in some 1/2 NL game. This guy plays with you every day from 8 to 12 hours and goes all in every hand blind no matter what. So you sit here and rake in the money day after day. For the year you are up 8k in the game but this is a bad day for you. You are stuck 8500 dollars and it has only been two hours into your session. This fellow player is having fun and has no desire to leave and promises to stay another 7 hours. You feel fresh with plenty of sleep and have no problem sitting and waiting for your next big hand to race against this player knowing full well you have the best of it going in against two randoms each time you race it down. So, do you leave the game because your down 8500 for the day and now 500 for the year? Perhaps you do leave but it makes sense that you should never leave until the other player leaves and you come back to the game when he is in the game the next day. You have no reason to quit just because your having a bad day racing 10% + winners in your favor.

Many times when I am playing I have a .5% or 1% advantage and it is a grind but when the days come around that I find something that is 10% or better you can imagine I never leave the game until I can't stay awake. I have been on plays like that doing 20 hour sessions over and over again. You never leave the game because of fluctuations. Of course this goes the same way for me I never leave because I am up 3k for the day and it has only been an hour into my session. I am not playing to win a certain amount. I am playing to make a certain percentage of total coin in which will work its way out within the week/month/year. The more you play the more you win!

[LarryS]

appreciate the honesty of a 30 something year old

[Alan Mendelson]

After telling us you gave back your $5000 five day profit in just one day, I hope you are not going to criticize stop losses.

[kewlJ]

Don't waste your time. He'll never understand.

I am sure you are correct, but I have to give it a try.

After telling us you gave back your $5000 five day profit in just one day, I hope you are not going to criticize stop losses.

It was $8800 that I won over 5 days with small wins and lost on day 6, and yes, I most certainly am going to criticize stop losses. If it were anyone else making these comments I would be certain they were playing with me. But I am going to give you the benefit of doubt and answer as best I can.

Stop limits, whether stop loss or stop wins are a voodoo concept to an advantage player. Stop limits are a function of short term play and thinking. Advantage play is about long-term play, results and thinking. We just don’t think like that (short term results). Short term results are meaningless.

If you spin a roulette wheel a million times, 47.36% will land on red, 47.36 percent on black and the remaining 5+ percent on green. If you end every session or day after a spin that lands on black, you still will not change those numbers. That is what stop limits are attempting to do.

In blackjack the numbers are roughly 43% win, 49% losses and 8% push. Ending a session or day after a win will not change these numbers, nor will ending on a loss or some loss (or win) target goal. It just will NOT change the distributions of long-term wins and losses.

Once you accept this FACT, then there is no artificial reason to stop playing. You play to get to the long run. AP’s consider their play all one big session. Whatever is going to occur on the next spin or round of play is going to happen, whether you play that round now or tomorrow or next week.

Now there are reasons to stop playing, like getting tired, no longer playing with an advantage or possibly running out of funds for the day. With card counting and the battle with casinos that we are forced to play, you can add “heat concerns”, but not some artificial limit or goal. That is just completely meaningless...complete voodoo thinking. Completely incompatible with advantage play.

[Alan Mendelson]

I have started 2018 with 5 consecutive + $1000 days. But oddly enough only 1 over $2000 and that was only $2400. So no really big wins.

That was your original post at the start of the thread. Then you said you lost it all on Day 6 but managed to get back in the black.

So you are prepared to lose five days of profit it one day?

If you are, stop losses are not for you.

I guess it's an AP thing, right? You have an edge, right?

I guess when you're in your 30s you're invincible.

By the way, no one uses stop wins. You use a rising stop loss.

[kewlJ]

By the way, no one uses stop wins. You use a rising stop loss.

Complete voodoo-sim. BUT, it does explain why you have never had a winning year.

[mcap]

Kew, stop indulging these trolls perhaps, you cannot win I think.

[LarryS]

It actually make sense to me. Things can turn on a dime. Cards and dice dont know the difference bewtween day and night, or monday or tuesday.

A person can have an arbitrary rule that after 3 losses in a row at a craps table you leave. John patrick has that rule...3 in a row time to go. But then what does that mean. Do you "go" and come back 2 minutes later. Do you "go" home, do you "go" to eat and come back? Do you "go" right over to another table?

I mean what if KJ stopped at some point on that day. When do the BJ gods say its ok to return? An hour later. When the clock strikes midnight? After the next sunrise? WTF. What would have been the proper time for him to stop and return? 8 hours? 5 hours and 47 min, 14 hoursand 3 minutes??? Tell us allan,...if he stopped at some point, when would it have been proper for him to return. If he started at 10pm on tuesday night, and had a bad stretch, should he leave at 11:45 and come back at 12:01 on wednsday? Or what time on wed is the coast clear.(assuming allertness is never an issue) what is the magical time away from the game.

[mickeycrimm]

It actually make sense to me. Things can turn on a dime. Cards and dice dont know the difference bewtween day and night, or monday or tuesday.

A person can have an arbitrary rule that after 3 losses in a row at a craps table you leave. John patrick has that rule...3 in a row time to go. But then what does that mean. Do you "go" and come back 2 minutes later. Do you "go" home, do you "go" to eat and come back? Do you "go" right over to another table?

I mean what if KJ stopped at some point on that day. When do the BJ gods say its ok to return? An hour later. When the clock strikes midnight? After the next sunrise? WTF. What would have been the proper time for him to stop and return? 8 hours? 5 hours and 47 min, 14 hoursand 3 minutes??? Tell us allan,...if he stopped at some point, when would it have been proper for him to return. If he started at 10pm on tuesday night, and had a bad stretch, should he leave at 11:45 and come back at 12:01 on wednsday? Or what time on wed is the coast clear.(assuming allertness is never an issue) what is the magical time away from the game.

According to the former resident stop win/stop loss expert here, Rob Singer, if you get a win you have to take the money home and sit with it for a week before you return to the casino to gamble some more. This guarantee's you will keep winning. According to Rob, f you start over again on the same day you will lose.

[Alan Mendelson]

It actually make sense to me. Things can turn on a dime. Cards and dice dont know the difference bewtween day and night, or monday or tuesday.

A person can have an arbitrary rule that after 3 losses in a row at a craps table you leave. John patrick has that rule...3 in a row time to go. But then what does that mean. Do you "go" and come back 2 minutes later. Do you "go" home, do you "go" to eat and come back? Do you "go" right over to another table?

I mean what if KJ stopped at some point on that day. When do the BJ gods say its ok to return? An hour later. When the clock strikes midnight? After the next sunrise? WTF. What would have been the proper time for him to stop and return? 8 hours? 5 hours and 47 min, 14 hoursand 3 minutes??? Tell us allan,...if he stopped at some point, when would it have been proper for him to return. If he started at 10pm on tuesday night, and had a bad stretch, should he leave at 11:45 and come back at 12:01 on wednsday? Or what time on wed is the coast clear.(assuming allertness is never an issue) what is the magical time away from the game.

He should have gone home when he reached his stop loss. Instead, he kept playing and lost what amounted to $8800. He could have set a stop loss at $2,000... but no... he has an edge so he stayed around to lose the entire $8800 he won during his five previous days. Genius at work, I guess. Player edge at work, I guess. Proper AP strategy at work, I guess.

Here's a hint: I don't care what kind of edge you have, it's not good if you lose. If the cards, dice, machines, are going against you, leave. The casino will be open tomorrow.

If you don't accept a stop loss strategy it probably means you can't recognize your own weakness. Maybe his count was off, maybe there were distractions? I don't think anyone was holding a gun to his head and told him he had to keep playing.

Imagine how he would have felt if ONLY lost $2,000 that day and not the entire $8800 ?? Of course, he's an AP, he has no feelings. Money means nothing to him. It's just chips.

LOL

[mickeycrimm]

Stop win/Stop loss goals are great for negative expectation gamblers. It cuts down on the amount of action they put in. The more they play the more they will lose.

With positive expectation gamblers the recurring sum of net edge times volume equals the earn. The more action they put in the more they make. So stop win/stop loss is not effective for them.

[Alan Mendelson]

Stop win/Stop loss goals are great for negative expectation gamblers. It cuts down on the amount of action they put in. The more they play the more they will lose.

With positive expectation gamblers the recurring sum of net edge times volume equals the earn. The more action they put in the more they make. So stop win/stop loss is not effective for them.

Then why did he lose $8800 ??