2018 start

[AxelWolf]

Please stop bidding on it(especially in public.) it's not worth driving the price down for less than $80 in value.

I don't think Alan would even be willing to sell it to someone he doesn't know for an extra 1% anyways.

Everyone knows the casinos gaff the free play to return far less of the actual face value (around 68% if you are lucky).

LOL. Understood. But Alan would recognize me if he saw me.

If we are being honest, fair value for free play is probably about 90%. I know the AP's don't like that because they want to get more value.....that is their job as an AP.

@ 90%, it is still +EV, but may not be worth the time and effort depending on amount. I am not going to buy $50 free play @ 90%, but I would probably buy $2000 free play @ 90%.

I hope you play it on a game that pays out 88%.

I could tell Alan something that would probably change his mind about selling his FP for less than a couple %. I won't, it's best to keep guy's like him in the dark.

[AxelWolf]

LOL. Understood. But Alan would recognize me if he saw me.

If we are being honest, fair value for free play is probably about 90%. I know the AP's don't like that because they want to get more value.....that is their job as an AP.

@ 90%, it is still +EV, but may not be worth the time and effort depending on amount. I am not going to buy $50 free play @ 90%, but I would probably buy $2000 free play @ 90%.

How much would you pay for EV?

Here is something that will blow Alan's mind. Or will he say, it doesn't blow his mind and he will suddenly understand the AP concept?


I'm willing to prepay a select few people for their future EV, if I get a nice discount.

Max, would you be willing to sell me your future EV for 50% on a play by play basis, plays of my choosing? I absorb all wins and losses.

I think I know the answer to that.

[AxelWolf]

If we are being honest, fair value for free play is probably about 90%. I know the AP's don't like that because they want to get more value.....that is their job as an AP.

@ 90%, it is still +EV, but may not be worth the time and effort depending on amount. I am not going to buy $50 free play @ 90%, but I would probably buy $2000 free play @ 90%.

How much would you pay for EV?

I would pay 90% all day, and more for large amounts.

Large amounts of what, you mean like large amount of dick?

[Dankyone]

How much would you pay for EV?

I would pay 90% all day, and more for large amounts.

Large amounts of what, you mean like large amount of dick?

For large amounts of free play ($1000+) to those foolish enough to sell it.

[MaxPen]

Axel...here's you big NO on the 50% offer.

Some EV is not collectible for weeks and sometimes months. What price would someone be willing to buy today if they understood the play? 80%, 90%?

[Alan Mendelson]

If we are being honest, fair value for free play is probably about 90%. I know the AP's don't like that because they want to get more value.....that is their job as an AP.

@ 90%, it is still +EV, but may not be worth the time and effort depending on amount. I am not going to buy $50 free play @ 90%, but I would probably buy $2000 free play @ 90%.

How much would you pay for EV?

Here is something that will blow Alan's mind. Or will he say, it doesn't blow his mind and he will suddenly understand the AP concept?


I'm willing to prepay a select few people for their future EV, if I get a nice discount.

Max, would you be willing to sell me your future EV for 50% on a play by play basis, plays of my choosing? I absorb all wins and losses.

I think I know the answer to that.

I think you guys are mixing things up. The question is not what price to pay for FUTURE play, but the question is about the value of COMPLETED play.

kewlj says his $8800 one day loss is a contribution to his overall EV. So the question becomes HOW MUCH WILL YOU GIVE KEWLJ FOR HIS $8800 LOSS that is now a part of his EV?

Would you give kewlj 90% of his $8800 loss? Would you give him 50% of his loss?

If you believe as kewlj believes you should give him something. Okay, how much?

[Dankyone]

How much would you pay for EV?

Here is something that will blow Alan's mind. Or will he say, it doesn't blow his mind and he will suddenly understand the AP concept?


I'm willing to prepay a select few people for their future EV, if I get a nice discount.

Max, would you be willing to sell me your future EV for 50% on a play by play basis, plays of my choosing? I absorb all wins and losses.

I think I know the answer to that.

I think you guys are mixing things up. The question is not what price to pay for FUTURE play, but the question is about the value of COMPLETED play.

kewlj says his $8800 one day loss is a contribution to his overall EV. So the question becomes HOW MUCH WILL YOU GIVE KEWLJ FOR HIS $8800 LOSS that is now a part of his EV?

Would you give kewlj 90% of his $8800 loss? Would you give him 50% of his loss?

If you believe as kewlj believes you should give him something. Okay, how much?

OH, PLEASE. Free play is by definition to be done in the future.

[Dankyone]

Future EV is something different—and less valuable—but then again, you don’t understand that either.

[Alan Mendelson]

That's right free play is in the future. But kewlj is arguing that his $8800 loss is part of his overall EV. Go back and read what he wrote.

Hence the question: how much is his loss worth? He argues his $8800 loss gave him "my best day of the year" for EV.

THIS IS WHAT IT'S ALL ABOUT. NOT THE VALUE OF FUTURE PLAY BUT HOW KEWLJ VALUES AN $8800 LOSS.

[LarryS]

Alan, I dont understand the math behind it, nor do I care to understand it at this point in my life. But I do understand the concept that when an AP plays with an advantage, they will not always win, but the longer they play with that advantage, winning will occur. There will not be winning sessions everytime in the long run, even if there is an advantage in play. Sometimes in Bj you can play with an advantage in a shoe, and just get bad cards. You still had the advantage even as you lost. And most likely when KJ lost a smallportion of his bankroll, he had the advantage and still lost. Just like the casino has a significant advantage, and has some losing sessions.
But in the long run, those with the advantage win.(how much, i have noclue)
So the way I understand it is that losing is just an expected part of long run play.You have to go through losing times in order to get to the winning times. SO kj got some of the losing out of the way in a sense. He gave an honest snapshot in the life of an AP. Isnt that we all want? Do we want glory stories of winning only?

Are you saying to yourself, fuck, if an AP can lose 8800, what the fuck chance does a dumb fuck john doe have at the tables. Does it make you feel vulnerable?

You realize people like axel and Maxpen are fucking with you because you sound so naive...while KJ is honestly trying to educate you.

If some come here with constant winning road trip stories you dismiss them, and if someone comes here talking about losing a day (9 percent of his bankroll) you critique that.

wtf

[Alan Mendelson]

I said early in the discussion what you said Larry: kewlj thought he had an advantage but unfortunately lost. But that's not kewlj's position. He actually says his $8800 real money loss is an EV win. That's when I started to ask "what bills can you pay with EV?"

[Glenbaccarat9]

I win far greater at baccarat than i lose but there are reasons for that which i figured out over the years. i will post pictures and other info about winning and some info about losing, but the losing info is short, not entertaining, and no pictures. Also, not fun to relive the losses. Personally. I know what went wrong when a loss occurs. So no need to discuss, then others will come on and make up their own version about how i dont give the whole story, etc. At least on other board anyways.

As far as this one the only discussions are basically in fighting between who is claiming larger balls? I guess.

[regnis]

I would ask if that continued accumulation of EV as he calls it is worth the $8800. Or, if the cards just sucked and he decided to quit, would the small amount of accumulated EV that he had foregone be less. Does the loss overide this EV?

I fully understand the math and that since he has an edge the long term results that are expected. But what if it's just one of those bad days where everything just seems off, including VP. Is there ever a consideration to just say eff it and go to the pool.

[Alan Mendelson]

Go to the pool? As in a stop loss? Bite your tongue for even suggesting it regnis. But then you did suggest a $4000 stop loss when I suggested a $2000 stop loss.

No, there will not be a stop loss. That $8800 real money loss gave him the best EV day of the year. Just ask him.

[LarryS]

How do you know there wasnt a stop loss. He could have kept going. He has the bankroll for it. Its just that you are bowled over by the 8800 figure. But its all relative.

There are people who go to the craps tables with 120 dollars, and would be shocked that I stayed and lost 1000.

I lost 1200 at a poker table once....and do you think I was reckless and pissed it away..nope the math said I was good on the hands....and I just lost. It happens. And some naive persn might ask me...why did u stay till you lost 1200.....and my answer is..."that was not my intention"

And KJ is not a masochist ...it wasnt his intention to lose 8800....and if he wanted he could have lost more.

its all so relative,,just admit it...you bet wth a fund much smaller than KJ and cant fathom wnning or losing 8800 in a day.

[Alan Mendelson]

He said he doesn't use a stop loss.

Larry you have to read his posts.

[regnis]

The amount means nothing to me and would be minimal in my overall play as well. I just want to understand if the need to accumulate EV took precedence over winning or losing when in reality, those few hundred hands are meaningless in the annual accumulated EV. So again, is there any consideration to go to his pool just because it's one of those days.

[LarryS]

he obviously stopped because he does have another 91,200 in his bankroll. Whether you call it a stop loss or anything else. The fact is he stopped before his entire bankroll was gone. He lost less than 9 percent.

whether he had 100 thousand at his fingertips and stopped after 8800 or brought only 8800 and lost it all....it shows there was a limit he set some way. He seems to have discipline, I doubt at this stage of his career he would blow his entire bankroll in one day....therefore there is some internal limit. Call it what you want. but there has to be some limit...if not Iwould be surprised. Although he can speak for himself. I am just making an assumption that an AP would not go through their entire bankroll of 100k in one day.

[AxelWolf]

That's right free play is in the future. But kewlj is arguing that his $8800 loss is part of his overall EV. Go back and read what he wrote.

Hence the question: how much is his loss worth? He argues his $8800 loss gave him "my best day of the year" for EV.

THIS IS WHAT IT'S ALL ABOUT. NOT THE VALUE OF FUTURE PLAY BUT HOW KEWLJ VALUES AN $8800 LOSS.

I'm not just talking about already earned FP. I'm talking about the entire play(whatever that may be) from beginning to end. FP doesn't even have to be involved.

I don't know that you will be able to find anyone who's mathematically savvy that will suggest you can accumulate EV in the way you think KJ is representing it.

[AxelWolf]

Perhaps someone could argue a case that one can accumulate EV(+or -) but there is no way to predict when or how it will be given back.