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Thread: 2018 start

  1. #21
    You just don't get it, Alan.

    Unlike you, who never has had a winning year at gambling, KJ not only wins, he relies on his winnings as his sole source of income.

    He must be doing something right.
    What, Me Worry?

  2. #22
    That's right. I've never had a winning year gambling.

    Kewlj would be about $6000 wealthier if he had a $2000 stop loss on Day 6.

  3. #23
    Question for kewlj:

    On Day 6 when you were down $8800, why did you stop?

  4. #24
    Compare gambling to having sex.

    A professional, aka "Advantage Pussy" makes her living at it by repeat play, whereas" Recreational Pussy" must rely on luck (marriage) to monetize her money-maker.

    It may be a lousy comparison, but hey, it's a comparison.
    What, Me Worry?

  5. #25
    I've jumped out to a pretty good lead this month. I've got a $4269 earn though yesterday. I have a chance at 10K month which I haven't had in a couple of years I think.
    "More importantly, mickey thought 8-4 was two games over .500. Argued about it. C'mon, man. Nothing can top that for math expertise. If GWAE ever has you on again, you can be sure I'll be calling in with that gem.'Nuff said." REDIETZ

  6. #26
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    That's right. I've never had a winning year gambling.

    Kewlj would be about $6000 wealthier if he had a $2000 stop loss on Day 6.
    Alan, how long do you recommend he stop for? Two seconds? Two minutes? Two hours? Two days? Two weeks? Two months? Two years? Two decades?

    Which length of time do you think is optimal?
    Last edited by mickeycrimm; 01-12-2018 at 06:10 AM.
    "More importantly, mickey thought 8-4 was two games over .500. Argued about it. C'mon, man. Nothing can top that for math expertise. If GWAE ever has you on again, you can be sure I'll be calling in with that gem.'Nuff said." REDIETZ

  7. #27
    As I wrote before, kewlj was having a bad day. He should have gone home. Perhaps his count was off. Maybe he was distracted about his health issues. Whatever it was he was not winning. Cut your losses early. The casino will be there tomorrow.

  8. #28
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    As I wrote before, kewlj was having a bad day. He should have gone home. Perhaps his count was off. Maybe he was distracted about his health issues. Whatever it was he was not winning. Cut your losses early. The casino will be there tomorrow.
    But why stop at a $2000 loss? Why not two cents, or two dollars, or twenty dollars, or two hundred dollars?

    But seriously, a big key here is bankroll. Everything is relative to your bankroll. Do you have enough bankroll to float the swings of the game? I'm sure KJ is adequately bankrolled to float the swings he experiences.
    "More importantly, mickey thought 8-4 was two games over .500. Argued about it. C'mon, man. Nothing can top that for math expertise. If GWAE ever has you on again, you can be sure I'll be calling in with that gem.'Nuff said." REDIETZ

  9. #29
    Originally Posted by mickeycrimm View Post
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    As I wrote before, kewlj was having a bad day. He should have gone home. Perhaps his count was off. Maybe he was distracted about his health issues. Whatever it was he was not winning. Cut your losses early. The casino will be there tomorrow.
    But why stop at a $2000 loss? Why not two cents, or two dollars, or twenty dollars, or two hundred dollars?
    Like I've said and Alan has proven time and time again -- Alan is incapable of understanding simple logic and math. He sees stuff in the past with 20/20 hindsight and thinks doing something was a mistake if it didn't work out. Why people give him the time of day to respond to him and give him a platform is beyond me.

  10. #30
    Originally Posted by RS__ View Post
    Originally Posted by mickeycrimm View Post
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    As I wrote before, kewlj was having a bad day. He should have gone home. Perhaps his count was off. Maybe he was distracted about his health issues. Whatever it was he was not winning. Cut your losses early. The casino will be there tomorrow.
    But why stop at a $2000 loss? Why not two cents, or two dollars, or twenty dollars, or two hundred dollars?
    Like I've said and Alan has proven time and time again -- Alan is incapable of understanding simple logic and math. He sees stuff in the past with 20/20 hindsight and thinks doing something was a mistake if it didn't work out. Why people give him the time of day to respond to him and give him a platform is beyond me.
    I think his concepts are comical. He is really a perfect foil that drags answers out of us. He might not get the answers but other people reading the forum might get them. I think that's why I have fun with it.
    "More importantly, mickey thought 8-4 was two games over .500. Argued about it. C'mon, man. Nothing can top that for math expertise. If GWAE ever has you on again, you can be sure I'll be calling in with that gem.'Nuff said." REDIETZ

  11. #31
    Imagine how he would have felt if ONLY lost $2,000 that day and not the entire $8800 ?? Of course, he's an AP, he has no feelings. Money means nothing to him. It's just chips.

    Imagine how he would have felt if things turned around and he ended up winning . I ma sure he has had days like that also.

    you have no idea what 8800 is as a percent of his bankroll. Dont you think thats an importan t piece of info to have before commenting.

    SO you say he was "having a bad day".....so do cards know when the clock strikes midnight and the new day begins? Using your logic, if he stopped at 11 pm, he can go home and return at 12:01 and start gambling for a "new day".

    Do the cards know that he actually went home, or just took a nap in his car. Or what if he didnt "go home" what if he went to a friends house . Do the cards know of that "trick" and punish him the next time he played.

    And what is the proper length of time to stay home to keep the cards from conspiring against you. 5 min? 5 hours? 12 hours and 2 minutes....I mean you dont want to piss off the cards by staying home the wrong amount of time.

    Do cards also get pissed off if you stay home too long? If youstay home to long do they get separation anxiety. Or do they get jealous thinking you are seeing a craps table behind their back?

  12. #32
    A comeback makes for a better story. More believable than the guy who never loses.
    78255585899=317*13723*17989=(310+7)*[(13730-7)*(100*100+7979+10)]-->LOVE avatar@137_371_179_791, or 137_371_17[3^2]_7[3^2]1, 1=V-->Ace, low. 78255585899-->99858555287=(99858555288-1)=[-1+(72*2227)*(722777-100000)]={-1+(72*2227)*[(2000+700777+20000)-100000]}-->1_722_227_277_772_1. 7×8×2×5×5×5×8×5×8×9×9=362880000=(1000000000-6√97020000-100000)-->169_721. (7/8×2/5×5/5×8/5×8/9×9)={[(-.1+.9)]^2×(6+1)}-->1961=√4*2.24; (1/7×8/2×5/5×5/8×5/8×9/9)={1/[7×(-.2+1)^2]}-->1721=[(10*10/4)/(√4+110)].

  13. #33

  14. #34
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    Question for kewlj:

    On Day 6 when you were down $8800, why did you stop?
    It was the end of my work day.

  15. #35
    Originally Posted by jbjb View Post
    Don't waste your time. He'll never understand.
    Yep, you were right, jbjb.

  16. #36
    Alan, I'm going to try one more approach. Every round I play has an expected value amount (EV). At the end of the year, I have a total EV amount for all hands plays (cumulative EV). And by the end of the year, which represents "the long run" or long term, my actual results will be pretty close to accumulated EV. I have had one outlier year significantly below EV and one outlier year significantly above, but generally actual results are pretty close to accumulated EV.

    So the goal is to play as many rounds as possible, accumulating as much EV as possible. Now in the process, actual results will go up and down like the stock market, but the overall trend (longterm) is upward. So quitting when having a "bad day", all that does is stifle the overall total EV. In other words....quitting early based on some artificial goal or target, cost me money.

    It really boils down to long-term vs short-term thinking. YOU are thinking about short-term results. AP's are looking at long-term results. Quitting to preserve some sort of artificial short time goal, would be like a baseball team with a goal of being ahead after the second inning. That is NOT what matters. What matters is the score after 9 innings.

  17. #37
    Kewlj your supporters say I don't understand because I don't know your bankroll.

    $8800 is a lot of money for me to lose in one day. So, what is your bankroll? Then I can put your $8800 one day loss in perspective.

    Simply state it: I have _____ dollars.
    Thanks.

  18. #38
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    Kewlj your supporters say I don't understand because I don't know your bankroll.

    $8800 is a lot of money for me to lose in one day. So, what is your bankroll? Then I can put your $8800 one day loss in perspective.

    Simply state it: I have _____ dollars. Thanks.
    You want me to say I have XX amount of dollars. And then the next thing will be demand of proof.

    At the start of each year, I reset my bankroll to 100k and that is what my partner and I play off of. Should that BR go to zero, I could easily replenish it. That has never occurred, or never come close to occurring. Biggest hole (in the red) was 34k, which was about 1/3 of starting bankroll.

    So yes, 8800 is significant money to me. It's 9% of my playing bankroll. 10k winning or losing days aren't common, but also not unusual at the level that my partner and I play, but they occur, maybe 8-12 times a year. (this was just under). So it is not unusual. Blackjack card counting is played with a very slim edge and consists of large swings in both directions. THAT is why a decent BR is required.

    And since I brought up that 34k in the hole year, that was 5 years ago. I started losing from day 1 of the year. Lost consistently until mid April. Hit that 34k in the hole mark sometime in April. Then went on the best run I have ever had. Over 100k in 5 weeks. Won everyday, almost every max bet doubledown it seemed for 5 weeks. At the end of the year I was up 115k from blackjack. My best year ever from blackjack. (that was the one outlier year to the good that I mentioned).

    The bottom line is short-term results are really meaningless in card counting blackjack AP. Short-term is just variance. We play for the long-run. That is where the advantage....the MATH kicks in.
    Last edited by kewlJ; 01-12-2018 at 10:39 AM.

  19. #39
    NOW he asks for the one piece of information that was needed before he commented. Funny

    If you possessed a shred of logic you would see that he does this for a living, and swings of thousands would be natural...and a larger bankroll that you are used to would be needed,

    you are like some 21 year old girl that goes to vegas for the first time with 500 dollars to gamble for the week, all the money in the world to her. And finds out some guy she met lost 400 dollars at roulette in 20 min, and cant believe he lost so much even though the guy had a gambling fund of 5k unbeknownst to her. She assumes everyone has a fund of 500 dollars.

  20. #40
    Originally Posted by kewlJ View Post
    Originally Posted by jbjb View Post
    Don't waste your time. He'll never understand.
    Yep, you were right, jbjb.
    Naturally!

    I've never heard of a casino quitting when they lose a set amount on a table or machine when they have the edge, so why should a single individual? Answer: And excuse me for yelling, but, THERE IS NO REASON TO QUIT.

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