Page 3 of 31 FirstFirst 123456713 ... LastLast
Results 41 to 60 of 601

Thread: 2018 start

  1. #41
    And by the way Alan, these people you are referring to as "my supporters"? What is that about? Some of these members criticize me harshly on other topics. They just happen to understand the math involved on this one. (Unlike you apparently).

  2. #42
    Originally Posted by kewlJ View Post
    You want me to say I have XX amount of dollars. And then the next thing will be demand of proof.
    That never stopped you before.
    78255585899=317*13723*17989=(310+7)*[(13730-7)*(100*100+7979+10)]-->LOVE avatar@137_371_179_791, or 137_371_17[3^2]_7[3^2]1, 1=V-->Ace, low. 78255585899-->99858555287=(99858555288-1)=[-1+(72*2227)*(722777-100000)]={-1+(72*2227)*[(2000+700777+20000)-100000]}-->1_722_227_277_772_1. 7×8×2×5×5×5×8×5×8×9×9=362880000=(1000000000-6√97020000-100000)-->169_721. (7/8×2/5×5/5×8/5×8/9×9)={[(-.1+.9)]^2×(6+1)}-->1961=√4*2.24; (1/7×8/2×5/5×5/8×5/8×9/9)={1/[7×(-.2+1)^2]}-->1721=[(10*10/4)/(√4+110)].

  3. #43
    As I said, he'll never understand. No reason to even waste time on him.

  4. #44
    Originally Posted by mickeycrimm View Post
    With positive expectation gamblers the recurring sum of net edge times volume equals the earn.
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    Then why did he lose $8800 ??
    What are the minimum number of trials for the earn to be realized?

    Originally Posted by kewlJ View Post
    We play for the long-run. That is where the advantage....the MATH kicks in.
    When does the math kick in?

    Originally Posted by kewlJ View Post
    AP's are looking at long-term results...the end of the year, which represents "the long run" or long term
    Why is a calendar year considered long term, vs any other length of time? What does the calendar have to do with results?

  5. #45
    I've been reading up on betting management. And from what I've read so far you shouldn't expose more than 10% of your bankroll to any session. So does this mean kewlj has $88,000 or more as a gambling bankroll? If so, then I accept his $8800 one day loss as fitting his bankroll size.

  6. #46
    Originally Posted by LarryS View Post
    do cards know when the clock strikes midnight and the new day begins? Using your logic, if he stopped at 11 pm, he can go home and return at 12:01 and start gambling for a "new day".
    Do the cards know whether it's 11:59pm on 12/31 or 12:01am on 1/1?

    If the player has a "work day" what determines how many hours that is? Does it have to be the same number of hours each day?

    My understanding is that the strategy is to play until you get you max bet out on the table, then leave right away when the count drops. How many hours is that?

  7. #47
    Originally Posted by coach belly View Post
    Originally Posted by kewlJ View Post
    AP's are looking at long-term results...the end of the year, which represents "the long run" or long term
    Why is a calendar year considered long term, vs any other length of time? What does the calendar have to do with results?
    I don't know what constitutes "long-term". A topic often debated, as you well know.

    Early in my career, in one of the two popular books about the MIT team from the 90's/2000 era (there have been MIT teams dating back to the 60's and probably before that), there was a phrase "law of large numbers" used, which loosely defined long-term as 50,000 rounds. That seemed reasonable to me. And my own experience was that I had 4 different losing 6 month periods, which for me is anywhere from 35-40 thousand rounds, but by the end of each of those years results was pretty close to expectation. So I went with 50,000 rounds for a long time.

    I went with that up until 2014 to be exact. That was the year (outlier to the negative) that my results for the entire year were FAR below expectation. Over 80,000 round and I was at 30% expectation. ($27,000 actual results vs $87,000 EV). So, that's when based on my own experiences, 50,000 rounds became too short to be "long-term" or the long run.

    I have been going with a year since. That's about 80,000 rounds most years. Despite an outlier year in each direction, I still feel comfortable saying a year or 80,000 rounds is long-term or "the long run". But to each his own.

    I personally don't like the calendar year for tracking results, because that is not ideally how blackjack works. Unfortunately, that is not my call. That is the way the U.S. Government does things, and I don't think they are going to change for me.

  8. #48
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    So does this mean kewlj has $88,000 or more as a gambling bankroll? If so, then I accept his $8800 one day loss as fitting his bankroll size.
    Didn't I answer that 37 minutes ago?

    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    I've been reading up on betting management. And from what I've read so far you shouldn't expose more than 10% of your bankroll to any session.
    I suspect what you are reading is negative expectation betting management. Better known as "betting systems". All operate under the mathematically false assumption that betting patterns can overcome a negative expectation game. IT CAN NOT!

    If you were to read positive expectation betting management, there is one singular accepted principal. Betting in proportion to your advantage. Better know as Kelly. Kelly is optimal for bankroll growth, but comes with too high of a risk of ruin for professional players, so most play some fraction of Kelly, which generates a RoR of less than 1% (0 for all practical purposes).

  9. #49
    Originally Posted by kewlJ View Post
    I personally don't like the calendar year for tracking results, because that is not ideally how blackjack works. Unfortunately, that is not my call. That is the way the U.S. Government does things, and I don't think they are going to change for me.:
    I understand that you must keep year-to-date records for tax purposes, but what's the point of resetting the bankroll on any particular date?

  10. #50
    Actually I was reading about Kelly and the fractional Kelly systems and 10% is the figure recommended when a player has an edge.

    As I said, if you have a bankroll of more than 80,000 and you said it's $100,000 then carry on.

    You don't have to prove it to me.

  11. #51
    Originally Posted by coach belly View Post
    Originally Posted by kewlJ View Post
    I personally don't like the calendar year for tracking results, because that is not ideally how blackjack works. Unfortunately, that is not my call. That is the way the U.S. Government does things, and I don't think they are going to change for me.:
    I understand that you must keep year-to-date records for tax purposes, but what's the point of resetting the bankroll on any particular date?
    My guess is that he's not interested in moving up in stakes.

  12. #52
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    Actually I was reading about Kelly and the fractional Kelly systems and 10% is the figure recommended when a player has an edge.

    As I said, if you have a bankroll of more than 80,000 and you said it's $100,000 then carry on.

    You don't have to prove it to me.
    Probably for bet resizing.

  13. #53
    Originally Posted by coach belly View Post
    Originally Posted by kewlJ View Post
    I personally don't like the calendar year for tracking results, because that is not ideally how blackjack works. Unfortunately, that is not my call. That is the way the U.S. Government does things, and I don't think they are going to change for me.:
    I understand that you must keep year-to-date records for tax purposes, but what's the point of resetting the bankroll on any particular date?
    I don't have an answer for that. That is just the way I do it. I am sure others do it differently.

    And this is an interesting point, because I always felt there are a million books that teach you the basics of card counting, but none, or very, very few that really get into top money management concepts. I have sort of figured out my own path on that part, with some help from various forum members. Like I said, I am sure others do it differently. Do you have different suggestions? If so, I will be happy to read them after work. Gotta jet!

  14. #54
    Originally Posted by coach belly View Post



    What are the minimum number of trials for the earn to be realized?

    Originally Posted by kewlJ View Post
    We play for the long-run. That is where the advantage....the MATH kicks in.
    When does the math kick in?

    Originally Posted by kewlJ View Post
    AP's are looking at long-term results...the end of the year, which represents "the long run" or long term
    Why is a calendar year considered long term, vs any other length of time? What does the calendar have to do with results?
    Fat belly, I told you I don't waste my time answering questions from someone who has trolled the hell out of me. So stay in the dark and eat batshit.
    "More importantly, mickey thought 8-4 was two games over .500. Argued about it. C'mon, man. Nothing can top that for math expertise. If GWAE ever has you on again, you can be sure I'll be calling in with that gem.'Nuff said." REDIETZ

  15. #55
    Originally Posted by mickeycrimm View Post
    Originally Posted by coach belly View Post

    What are the minimum number of trials for the earn to be realized?
    Fat belly, I told you I don't waste my time answering questions from someone who has trolled the hell out of me. So stay in the dark and eat batshit.
    In other words...you can't answer because you don't know the answer, but you are not man enough to admit that.

    You can't answer Alan's question either.

    You've pulled this chicken-shit move before...answering everything like a know-it-all until you don't know the answer, then you say you can't be bothered.

    Arrested development...you may be an old man, but you act like a child...you spineless earthwormm.

  16. #56
    Depends on the game, edge size, variance and others. Read up on N0 (N zero).

    http://www.dictionaryofgambling.com/...s/blackjack/n/

  17. #57
    I give Alan credit for one thing. For the most part he has brought a group together who seldom agrees on anything. Amazing what common sense and math can do!

  18. #58
    Originally Posted by jbjb View Post
    Depends on the game, edge size, variance and others.
    Besides "others" aren't all of those values known with respect to Blackjack?

    With positive expectation gamblers the recurring sum of net edge times volume equals the earn.
    We know that volume cannot be negative. Under what circumstances can the recurring sum of net edge be negative?

  19. #59
    Originally Posted by The Boz View Post
    I give Alan credit for one thing. For the most part he has brought a group together who seldom agrees on anything.
    Yes, everybody loves a clown.
    What, Me Worry?

  20. #60
    Originally Posted by The Boz View Post
    I give Alan credit for one thing. For the most part he has brought a group together who seldom agrees on anything. Amazing what common sense and math can do!
    I accept what kewlj is doing because it appears he can afford it.

    But what common sense is there in losing $8800?

    And the math says when you lose $8800 it's lost and that's five days of work down the drain.

Thread Information

Users Browsing this Thread

There are currently 1 users browsing this thread. (0 members and 1 guests)

Similar Threads

  1. Replies: 6
    Last Post: 01-04-2018, 05:03 PM
  2. Replies: 19
    Last Post: 10-22-2017, 07:53 PM
  3. At What Point Should I Start?
    By redietz in forum Las Vegas
    Replies: 5
    Last Post: 05-10-2015, 05:03 PM
  4. Business, start up loan.
    By Andrewkk in forum Whatever's On Your Mind
    Replies: 1
    Last Post: 08-17-2013, 05:23 PM
  5. The start of a brilliant TV career.
    By Alan Mendelson in forum Movies, Media, and Television
    Replies: 0
    Last Post: 04-22-2013, 07:33 PM

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •