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Thread: The Big Game

  1. #1
    William Hill has NE-5, while others are at 5.5.

    In my opinion that is public odds...more general public loves the Pats, and are willing to pay a premium. I think there is a [premium built into the spread.

    For a game that gets this much action, the last thing the books want to create is a substantial middle.

    The NE superbowls tend to be tight.

    I think the eagles have a real chance to cover that number, and even win. Eagles are better than the Jags. And the Jags gave that game away with a delay of game penalty and 100 pentalty yards.

    Personally I would rather find value in a college basketball game on saturday rather than put big money on the superbowl. But I will bet some money on props when they come out just for the fun of it.

    good luck to everyone

    as it stands now the eagles are the biggest underdog since the 2009 ariz cardinals. I see some value here as it stands today. But I have 2 weeks to be convinced otherwise

  2. #2
    You hit it on the head Larry. People bet the game because it’s “The Game”. And those that win will say they knew it all all night and it was easy. Vegas usually hits the line right on these because they can’t afford to be middlled like you said again.

    Far more value to be had daily on an NBA or NCAA game but that’s isn’t what betting the SB about.

    I personally like looking over and betting some props. Just not the “No Safety”, even if it is a good bet in theory.

  3. #3
    Yesh, I will bet props like I said to add spice to the game. I stay away from props that can be killed with a mistake on one play.

    So props like "James white rushing yards under/over 35".///if you bet under... one missed tackle on the first play of the game can rip up your ticket". So I stay away from props where one play can screw you. So on that bet...over is the play or skip it .

    I know the wiz had been going with "no safety" for years.....and had a few years in a row where he lost it. The one I remember clearly is the Broncos/Seahawks in NYC....first play of the game ball is snapped over the head of Manning into the endzone. I am not a fan of that bet.

    A popular bet this year will center on amendola based on his performance yesterday. But Gronk will probably be back, And Bellichick seems to be able to feel people that you least expect. So I will stay away from amendola props.

    I will post my [picks when the sheets come out. Most likely not till next weekend, when more is known about injury status of major players.

    There is one thing that I have always been curious about, as far as percent wins...those are the props that tie a performance of an individual playing another game. Like which is more, Total brady Passes vs total points and assists of LeBron James. Do players actively try to break those type props...and is there a higher percentage of individual players "winning" the prop. Has anyone seen any stats on this subsection of prop bets.

  4. #4
    I love the Eagles +5.5 points. Full disclosure, I am a diehard Eagles fan. If they win, I will be flying to Philadelphia for the parade. So understand that I am NOT necessarily objective.

    That said, looking back at teams that have given Brady trouble, Baltimore Ravens, for a stretch of 3-4 years about 5-6 years ago. NY Giants in two Superbowls. Denver Broncos, smacked Brady around in AFC championship game, 3 years ago. These teams all had one thing in common. The ability to create a significant pass rush with only their front 4 guys, leaving 7 defenders in coverage. THAT is exactly the Eagles strength. Stop the ruin and pressure the QB, with only 4 linemen.

    The Eagles have one other thing going for them on defense. They rotate defensive linemen like no other team we have seen. This IS a big deal because we have seen a number of teams contain Brady for 3 quarters, only to allow Tom to look terrific in his 4th quarter comebacks because the 300 lbs defensive linemen are gasping for air. So defensively the Eagles are built in that mode that can give Brady trouble. Tom never liked to get hit much, but at 40 years old, smack him around a bit and lets jus see how terrific he is.

    Offensively, unfortunately, is the big question mark for the Eagles. If Foles plays as he did yesterday, I think the Eagles win. But just a couple weeks ago in the final regular season game, Foles and Eagles were shut out and first play off game against Atlanta, one TD and 3 field goals. Neither of those performances will get it done. But New England defense isn't particularly strong, so I think the Eagles will score points, enough to cover....and maybe enough to win.

    I hate Philadelphia in February, but good lord, I will give anything to be there, standing on Broad Street, watching a parade, because that means the Eagles have won the Superbowl!

  5. #5
    I hope the weather is around 40.

    In freezing weather against dallas and raiders foles looked inept. I dont know if he has grip problems or what. Was it the cold weather or just rust.

    The week before he did well agasint the Giants on the road and put up a bunch of points. But basically went silent agasint raiser and Dallas. The Raiders defense was not their strong point all season.

    We know brady does well in the cold.

    I seem to remember a game that foles had agasint dallas in the snow a few years ago where he looked amazing. He was throwing long passes into the endzone, pinpoint down field.

    Maybe that was with chip kelly. Not sure.

    but from current form....whats the deal with the dallas and raiders games.......no offense., inaccurate passing. Rust> or something else

  6. #6
    Funny you are coming back. My wife who is a far bigger Eagles fan than me (Sixers, Phillies) made us delay a trip to CA until Saturday the 10th a month ago based on prospects of a parade. We always head west the day after the SB since it’s a slow time in our business after the game. Not this year.

    I’m sure I’ll pick you out in the crowd of 1 Million plus on the streets based on the information you have put out there, lol.

  7. #7
    Originally Posted by The Boz View Post
    Funny you are coming back. My wife who is a far bigger Eagles fan than me (Sixers, Phillies) made us delay a trip to CA until Saturday the 10th a month ago based on prospects of a parade. We always head west the day after the SB since it’s a slow time in our business after the game. Not this year.

    I’m sure I’ll pick you out in the crowd of 1 Million plus on the streets based on the information you have put out there, lol.
    We usually make 2 trips east a year, to Philly to see friends and my spouse has family there and get some play in at some of the Pa casinos, that have those really good BJ rules. But I want no part of winter so we plan our trips for Thanksgiving and sometime in April or May. This past year we went over thanksgiving and got to attend an Eagles game (blowout win vs Chicago).

    Eagles and Villanova basketball are my two sports loves. Phillies third, but a distant third. Two years ago when Nova won college basketball national championship, I contemplated an extra trip, but that was first week in April and we had a trip planned end of April. Didn't make sense, plus the Villanova parade in Center city isn't that big, being Nova is really outside the city.

    BUT an Eagles Superbowl parade, that is something I will not miss. And you know I moved to Phila after graduating high school in 2001, so I have only been a Philly sports fanatic for 17 years. My spouse is in his mid 50's. He grew up and lived in Phila his whole life until he moved to Vegas in 2011. He has been waiting for an Eagles Superbowl Parade for 50 years. No way in hell I would deny him that. We will be there....IF.

  8. #8
    Originally Posted by kewlJ View Post
    Originally Posted by The Boz View Post
    Funny you are coming back. My wife who is a far bigger Eagles fan than me (Sixers, Phillies) made us delay a trip to CA until Saturday the 10th a month ago based on prospects of a parade. We always head west the day after the SB since it’s a slow time in our business after the game. Not this year.

    I’m sure I’ll pick you out in the crowd of 1 Million plus on the streets based on the information you have put out there, lol.
    We usually make 2 trips east a year, to Philly to see friends and my spouse has family there and get some play in at some of the Pa casinos, that have those really good BJ rules. But I want no part of winter so we plan our trips for Thanksgiving and sometime in April or May. This past year we went over thanksgiving and got to attend an Eagles game (blowout win vs Chicago).

    Eagles and Villanova basketball are my two sports loves. Phillies third, but a distant third. Two years ago when Nova won college basketball national championship, I contemplated an extra trip, but that was first week in April and we had a trip planned end of April. Didn't make sense, plus the Villanova parade in Center city isn't that big, being Nova is really outside the city.

    BUT an Eagles Superbowl parade, that is something I will not miss. And you know I moved to Phila after graduating high school in 2001, so I have only been a Philly sports fanatic for 17 years. My spouse is in his mid 50's. He grew up and lived in Phila his whole life until he moved to Vegas in 2011. He has been waiting for an Eagles Superbowl Parade for 50 years. No way in hell I would deny him that. We will be there....IF.
    I hope you both get to make that trip! And I’m optimistic the city will see more celebrations in the next 10 years. You know how i feel about the Sixers and I honestly think the Phillies are on the right path. And when Trout comes home in a couple years, we are golden! I’m ever the Philly believer.

  9. #9
    Originally Posted by The Boz View Post
    I hope you both get to make that trip! And I’m optimistic the city will see more celebrations in the next 10 years. You know how i feel about the Sixers and I honestly think the Phillies are on the right path. And when Trout comes home in a couple years, we are golden! I’m ever the Philly believer.
    Next 10 years: Eagles, Sixers, maybe Phillies. I am not really a big professional basketball fan during the season (unless I am riding a couple of Dan's picks). I start to take some interest in the playoffs. But, I am starting to follow, watch and get excited about the Sixers. They are going to be a real threat in next 2-3 years.

    I HATED "the process". Still do. I do not like trying to lose to get better later. I have a friend who is lifelong NYGiants fan and I watched Eagles-Giants game with him in December. Game was close. Eagles won. He was rooting for the Eagles because Giants have their own "process" going on. I just really hate that concept.

    But anyway, Sixers are through that and things looking up. I love that Mike Trout is a big Eagles fan and attends most home games. Also actor Bradley Cooper. Success and moving away doesn't take the "philly" out of a person.

  10. #10
    How do you compare Capriottis to a sub back home? I believe they do a decent job. Is there anything else off strip even close?

  11. #11
    Originally Posted by The Boz View Post
    How do you compare Capriottis to a sub back home? I believe they do a decent job. Is there anything else off strip even close?
    Caps is decent. Much better than most places in Vegas. I think the story is the original owner was from Delaware...so close to Philly.

    There is a better place but it is small, a single shop...more like a stand with outdoor only seating. It's called Pop's Philly Cheesesteaks on Decateur and Alta, (above Charleston). It's just up the street from Arizona Charlie's decateur, if you know where that is.

    Pop was a south Philly guy. They fly rolls in from south Philly every few days. You might be thinking (like I was) that they would be stale....they are not. Pops also sells Tastykakes, Krimpets, Juniors and Cupkakes, which aren't easily found in Vegas.

  12. #12
    There is a sub chain that I like called Jersey Mikes....also has tasteeKakes assortment. Closest thing to real back east sub that i can find in Ca

    in nv also

    but the cheesestakes are nothing like in philly or Jersey.......the cold subs are amazingly good qualty

  13. #13
    Originally Posted by LarryS View Post
    There is a sub chain that I like called Jersey Mikes....also has tasteeKakes assortment. Closest thing to real back east sub that i can find in Ca

    in nv also

    but the cheesestakes are nothing like in philly or Jersey.......the cold subs are amazingly good qualty

    Thumps up to Jersey Mike's. Their subs are about 50% pricier than Subway, but worth it. Cold subs are good. Cheesesteaks aren't completely Philly legit (I grew up two hours west of Philadelphia), but they aren't bad.

    FYI -- Cook E. Jarr is from the Jersey side of Philly area. If you go see his show and bring him some TasteeCakes, you'll get a shout out.

  14. #14
    yes pricier than subway, but the bread has substance, rather than the light airy bread of subway. The pre cut coldcuts at subway are cheap and tasteless.
    If someone likes the 3rd rate product of subway, they will think the price at JM is exorbitant.

    And I have learned, that at my age quantity is not that important when I eat. I can eat a smaller portion at JM and get a "Mini" sub, enjoy the taste, not stuff myself....and I will be just fine.It costs about the same as a subway full sub. My stomach isnt growling afterward, I am not saying that I wish I had a 12 inch subway sub. I am totally content afterward. I am fine.
    I find i really dont need the footlong. Maybe when I was younger and more active. But for now...I am just fine with a Mini and some chips.

    the thing that annoys me about JM...is that I buy a minni sub for around 6 dollars, and I go to the refirge and get a bottle of pepsi, and get a tastykake...and they ring it up and the credit card machine asks if I want to give a 10 percent 15 percent or 20 percent tip.(or "other")....and they calculate the tip on the 9 dollar total. That tajes nerve, to give their employees tips for stuff i just picked off a shelf. I dont eat there.....so its not like they have toclean up my mess. Whats the deal with that.

  15. #15
    Longest fieldgoal over last 10 years.....47
    7 out of last 8 games had 2 pt conversion
    Defensive score///7 out of last 10
    3 or more fieldgoals made........3 out of last 10(with rules protecting receivers, possible the reason)
    team score 3 times in a row...yes for 7 of last 10...this one always seems intuitively a no
    4 of last 10 had safety

    there is an article about this , I was just typing this as i listened to it on the radio being talked about.

  16. #16
    I don't bet sports, but my buddy does.

    After watching the playoffs on Sunday he challenged me to bet on Philly, and he'd take NE: whatever the points are, that's it.

    Wanted to bet $100.

    I told him I don't want to bet money, but I will bet him: the winner gets to lift up the loser's legs while the loser "wheelbarrows" around our kitchen island braying "hee haw, hee haw" like a jackass.

    Now that's gamblin'.
    What, Me Worry?

  17. #17

  18. #18
    or
    thats entertainment?

  19. #19
    Someone placed a multimillion dollar wager on the Eagles +5 1/2 at MGM Grand on Wednesday. The exact amount wasn't revealed, but it is said to be one of the largest wagers placed in years. The line at MGM immediately dropped a full point below the other Vegas books.

  20. #20
    I agree with that bettor as I said in the OP. Both defenses are very good...NE defenseis better now than their yearly average, as their first 4 games were horrid...and they have really solidified over the last 7 weeks. I think its low scoring. Which goes well with my pick of eagles covering5. Since when the dog covers, the under is prevalent.

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