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Thread: The Big Game

  1. #21
    Originally Posted by kewlJ View Post
    Someone placed a multimillion dollar wager on the Eagles +5 1/2 at MGM Grand on Wednesday. The exact amount wasn't revealed, but it is said to be one of the largest wagers placed in years. The line at MGM immediately dropped a full point below the other Vegas books.
    The Identity of this person is now coming into focus. No name, but he is known as "sir let it ride". He won 14 million betting and winning 6 different games during the 2017 World Series. Wednesday's wager was supposedly just the first portion of 10 million that he intends to bet on the Eagles.
    Last edited by kewlJ; 01-25-2018 at 10:18 AM.

  2. #22
    So did he walk into a sportsbook carrying $1,000,000??

    Redietz--you should be more careful.

  3. #23
    Originally Posted by regnis View Post
    So did he walk into a sportsbook carrying $1,000,000??
    Good question. I don't know the answer. Actually his bet Wednesday was $3,000,000 and was accepted by MGM. Back in the world series he attempted to wager 2.75 Million on a game that MGM rejected, so he spread it around town.

    Interesting thing about the world series bets. First 6 games, he waged 3 times on Houston, 3 times on the Dodgers, and won all 6 bets totaling over 14 million in winnings. When it got to game 7, he did not wager. So apparently the wagers are not about a preference for one team, as in a "fan" of a certain team.

    The guy is described as a male, Eastern European, under the age of 30, although speculation is that he is the front man for a larger group.

  4. #24
    Originally Posted by kewlJ View Post
    Originally Posted by regnis View Post
    So did he walk into a sportsbook carrying $1,000,000??
    Good question. I don't know the answer. Actually his bet Wednesday was $3,000,000 and was accepted by MGM. Back in the world series he attempted to wager 2.75 Million on a game that MGM rejected, so he spread it around town.

    Interesting thing about the world series bets. First 6 games, he waged 3 times on Houston, 3 times on the Dodgers, and won all 6 bets totaling over 14 million in winnings. When it got to game 7, he did not wager. So apparently the wagers are not about a preference for one team, as in a "fan" of a certain team.

    The guy is described as a male, Eastern European, under the age of 30, although speculation is that he is the front man for a larger group.
    I have to say, the story makes little sense. If someone's betting three million dollars, he either should have jumped on the first +6 he saw (right after the close of the Eagles/Vikings), or negotiated a reduced juice half point boost from +5 1/2 to +6. Any wager over 100K is amenable to a negotiation like that.

    It makes very little sense to take a +5 1/2 when a reduced juice half point could be had. Either something is wrong or missing from the story, or the guy (or group) is really stupid, or all the world's a stage (as in MGM is connected to the wager in a real way that will forever be beyond our -- and the NGC's -- purview).

  5. #25
    we know the amount of the bet....I didnt read about negotiated terms of the bet

  6. #26
    The story was picked up by the general news outlets. I doubt MGM sportbook VP would get into anything like "negotiated terms for bigger wagers".

    I certainly have no idea about this kind of stuff, so will defer to redietz's knowledge in this area. But, I got to say negotiating a line movement more advantageous than the better wanted doesn't seem to make sense to me. I mean if the line is sitting Eagles +5.5, as is was at the time of the wager, why would they offer a big wager at +6, knowing they would need to move the line in the other direction immediately after to try to entice offsetting wagers on New England? That only creates a big middle opportunity. But again, I have no idea, I am just trying to understand.

  7. #27
    Originally Posted by kewlJ View Post
    The story was picked up by the general news outlets. I doubt MGM sportbook VP would get into anything like "negotiated terms for bigger wagers".

    I certainly have no idea about this kind of stuff, so will defer to redietz's knowledge in this area. But, I got to say negotiating a line movement more advantageous than the better wanted doesn't seem to make sense to me. I mean if the line is sitting Eagles +5.5, as is was at the time of the wager, why would they offer a big wager at +6, knowing they would need to move the line in the other direction immediately after to try to entice offsetting wagers on New England? That only creates a big middle opportunity. But again, I have no idea, I am just trying to understand.
    The bettor is the one with the leverage here. MGM isn't doing him favors by taking the wager.

    With wagers this size, usually a juice negotiation takes place. If the bettor laid more than -105, he was gypped. MGM has a long (possibly little known -- LOL, sorry guys) history, going back decades, of offering -105 to 50k+ bettors. If this particular bettor(s) didn't get the -105, he did a real poor job negotiating, as someone would have (presumably) wanted it and given it to him. William Hill, Cantor, maybe Wynn, could have handled this.

    My problem with the bettor is he should have known what he wanted before the Eagle/Viking game wrapped, so why take a +5 1/2 when +6s were immediately available? Then, since a wager this size has some leverage in the hands of the bettor, and since he was looking at a +5 1/2 because he delayed, why not negotiate a half point up to +6, laying -112 or -113? That's what any normal professional would do, I think.

    It's an odd story with some missing pieces.

  8. #28
    Maybe he knows now some info about the patriots that hed didnt know 3 days ago.

  9. #29
    No doubt missing pieces.

    I have read the story by several different news outlets, no doubt you have too, if not you should google it. All the stories are nearly identically vague, as I am sure that is the way it was told to them by MGM.

    But I am afraid, little old me, still doesn't understand why the would offer a better line? I mean even accepting a wager like that, at what was then the going price +5.5, means they are going to have to adjust their price to attempt to entice wagers on the other side to offset. This already creates a big middle, which is NOT what the books want, right? So offering at a negotiated price of +6 creates an even BIGGER middle, no?

    And incidentally, MGM dropped to 4.5 yesterday after this wager was made, while everyone else remained at 5. Today WestGate and Stations are both down to 4.5 as well. I wonder if they had large bets placed today as it was indicated this "Sir-let-it-ride" bettor intended to make a total of $10 million in Wagers on the Eagles?

  10. #30
    That would be the only (and unlikely) theory that would explain the timing. One has to assume Gronkowski is messed up. You surely can't make a Patriots wager thinking he'll play.

    If you're going to bet three million dollars, however, one would like to think you know enough about what you're doing to time the thing appropriately.

    I'm no NFL guru, but I tagged this line at 5 1/2 with probable Eagles money. If I got that right, everybody should have gotten it right and understood a -6 was unlikely to hold up long.

  11. #31
    Since you brought it up, I have a theory that Gronkowski will not clear protocol. Everyone is assuming that because there is an extra week he will clear. But this is very high profile and on the heels of two very controversial cases where players appear to have been cleared too early. Because this is so high profile, I wouldn't be surprised if the NFL bends over the other way, claiming player safety, which is what the protocol is SUPPOSED to be about.

    What would make that very interesting is the conspirator theorist would claim that was Goodell, exercising a vendetta against Brady. Makes for good stuff!

  12. #32
    It could be gronk, it could be a couple of players on the offensive line that protects brady....no name players that dont get alot of press. You never know....

  13. #33
    If you're betting this game, you have to operate on the premise that Gronkowski won't play. Too much pressure on the league. It creates interesting over/under reception and yardage situations in the props for all of the tight ends.

  14. #34
    I have seen how gronk talks and acts normally.....its hard to say he doesnt have a concussion 365 days a year

  15. #35
    Originally Posted by LarryS View Post
    I have seen how gronk talks and acts normally.....its hard to say he doesnt have a concussion 365 days a year
    +1

  16. #36
    Just thinking out loud, I would think for anyone betting serious money, whether Gronkowski plays or not is a pretty significant development. Why would you wager significant money 11 days out with that big piece of uncertainty?

    I have come up with 2 possibilities.

    Senerio #1. If you were convinced that the patriots were the superior team, with or without Gronkowski and were going to win easily, either way, you would want to place your wager while there is uncertainty. Laying 5 or 5.5 is significantly better than laying 7 or 7.5, if Gronkowski was cleared.

    But that is clearly not what this bettor did.

    Scenerio #2. If you were convinced the Eagles cover or win with or without Gronkowski, you would want the +5.5, rather than 3 or 3.5 should Gronkowski be ruled out.

    This may be what this bettor had in mind. On the other hand maybe he is just some rich Eastern European, "kid (they said under 30) with too much money and didn't put much thought into it.

  17. #37
    Originally Posted by kewlJ View Post
    Just thinking out loud, I would think for anyone betting serious money, whether Gronkowski plays or not is a pretty significant development. Why would you wager significant money 11 days out with that big piece of uncertainty?

    I have come up with 2 possibilities.

    Senerio #1. If you were convinced that the patriots were the superior team, with or without Gronkowski and were going to win easily, either way, you would want to place your wager while there is uncertainty. Laying 5 or 5.5 is significantly better than laying 7 or 7.5, if Gronkowski was cleared.

    But that is clearly not what this bettor did.

    Scenerio #2. If you were convinced the Eagles cover or win with or without Gronkowski, you would want the +5.5, rather than 3 or 3.5 should Gronkowski be ruled out.

    This may be what this bettor had in mind. On the other hand maybe he is just some rich Eastern European, "kid (they said under 30) with too much money and didn't put much thought into it.
    Maybe I think a fair line is X without gronk and Y with gronk. I figure he has a 60% chance of playing (for example) and 40% chance he doesn't play. I do the math and figure out it's a good bet. Alternatively, if I wait till SBS morning, or whenever it's announced he's in or he's out, the lines may change in a way where I no longer have a (perceived) advantage.

    I'd much rather there be lots of uncertainty -- because that means the books are uncertain as well. More books having different numbers is a good thing.

  18. #38
    Really, though, if you're going to plop three million on a game, wouldn't you be sitting there, already having negotiated the juice with multiple books, money in hand waiting for the first lines out of the box while monitoring various lines across the city?

    And if that's not how you play a three million dollar investment (see what I did there, Larry?), then why isn't it?

    If people want to slop up a three million dollar bet, that's up to them, I suppose. Maybe that's the point of the story -- get whales to make some slopped up bets. This guy allegedly won six World Series bets and now he places a SB bet. Hasn't lost one yet, at least that's the storyline. All mega-profile games with high limits. Basically a storyline to promote impulse bets from people who don't usually bet sports. Maybe.

  19. #39
    "sirletitride", now also being referred to as 'Bettor X', placed money line wagers of $1 million at Wynn, and $500,000 and $700,000 at South Point and William Hill Today. This is in addition to his $3 million dollar wager on the Eagles +5 last week at MGM.

    No mention of anything from Westgate, but they dropped both the point line and money line on the Eagles significantly today. I wonder if they had a large wager, as yet unreported.

  20. #40
    So, I am basically a hundred dollar bettor just to have an interest in some games (mostly football), $110 on point lines to keep things even. Every once in a while if something strikes me, I might go 2-3 hundred and once in a blue moon $500. On the NFC championship game a thousand because it involved my favorite team and having won that wager a thousand on the superbowl.

    So all that to basically say, I am a very small bettor. So my question to redietz or anyone else who may know: How does one go about wagering a million dollars or 3 million dollars at a sportsbook? Or even $500,000 or $700.000 for that matter? is someone walking in with a suitcase full of cash? Or is there some sort of electronic money transfer?

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