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Thread: The Big Game

  1. #41
    I thought 5.5 was fair in getting the eagles a week ago, But now I have to wonder, with all the money coming in on the eagles......its almost as it they are the favorites. I know the line says differently. But why all the flood of money on Philly. The have a second tier quarterback that hasnt won a meaningful game away from home agasint a good team in a long while. I dont want to hear a response that "you are a hater///blah blah blah". I am on a gambling board talking about gambling. Not having an orgasm because I am wearing a Jersey of a particular team.

    But the Pats are well experienced as a team in superbowls. And the eagles have little experience in big games away from home. So how do the eagles get this type of attention with million dollar and multi-million dollar bets.

    The key question on those bets is...what is the net worth of those bettors. Are they billionaires? Or are they wagering a significant percent of their net worth.

    Is it just screwing around, or is it a sweat for them once the game starts.

    these bets dont sway me one way or the other unless I know the percent that money represents.

    Philly is 15thin QB sacks,,,so its not like brady is going to be on his ass all game. Dont get me wrong, the eagles do have a very good defense. 4 th in points given up. But Ne IS 5TH..

    recent history has the over coming in, However over the history of the superbowl the over is plus 2.

    Personally I am going to look for the under 24 in the first half. I am going to devalue Amedolas productivity in [prop bets involving him. am going to devalue most of the NE running props. I like agholor props on the positive side.

    I dont see the NE running game working well,leaving brady making alot of throws......those props are live for me. Not alot of brady TDs though.

    We will see. With prop bets one must make assumption on how the game will go. I am assuming a defensive battle.

    I cant see putting 3 mill on a team that hs a QB that has no track record against very good teams on the road recently. Who has no track record on the road making high pressure throws. Atleast not 3 mil that would make me sweat.

  2. #42
    Does anyone know if those $500K+ bets have come from different people or from one guy? To me it seems like there's likely some big Eagles fan and he's betting a lot on the game....and that's it, nothing all too special (other than the bets are large). I also haven't seen any kind of analysis or talk about the game that would warrant this kind of action. I just don't see the reason behind it (being a good +EV bet).

    On the other hand, when Mayweather was "fighting" McGregor, there were several big bets coming in on Mayweather and all the talk was Mayweather is literally going to kill McGregor...so it makes sense there's going to be big $500K or $1M+ bets on him.

    But for this? The eagles? I'm just not seeing it. Who knows, though, the eagles could win. But I'm probably going to put my money on the Patriots, if anywhere. Patriots are actually good, have lots of experience in the Superb Owl, and not to mention -- they're cheaters. I think I have some action on some props (someone else making bets for me, idk wtf's going on, yolo), but if I do bet the game straight up, it'll almost certainly be for Patriots on the ML, hopefully -170 for less than $1k. Idk about the total, but if anything, probably Under first half, like larry said.

  3. #43
    Originally Posted by RS__ View Post
    Does anyone know if those $500K+ bets have come from different people or from one guy?
    They claim it is one guy, an eastern european male under 30. And that he is the same person that won 6 straight (not 18) world series bets in games 1 thru 6. He did not wager game 7. What they don't know or haven't said, is if he is just the person placing the wagers for a larger group.

  4. #44
    Originally Posted by LarryS View Post
    I cant see putting 3 mill on a team that hs a QB that has no track record against very good teams on the road recently. Who has no track record on the road making high pressure throws. Atleast not 3 mil that would make me sweat.
    It is easy to look at the QB matchup and say mismatch. No one is suggesting Foles is anywhere close to Brady. Major advantage Patriots. And it IS the single most important position on the field. But it is only one position and football is a team game. Coaching is certainly a second area (and a second very big area) that new England has a major advantage.

    But that might be it. Especially if Gronk doesn't play. Everywhere else the Eagles match up favorably. Receivers, running game, running game v run defense.

    A couple things that I think are deceiving, one in Eagles favor and one in New Englands. For the Eagles that 15th in the league in sacks. 15 of 32 teams is obviously very mediocre. But, the Eagles get pressure with only their front 4 guys, meaning they don't have to blitz much. That leaves 7 guys in coverage. that is the exact scenario Brady has had some problems with in the past (Baltimore, Denver). And you don't have to get sacks to have pressure. If you force the QB to throw early, he (even Brady) is much less accurate. And Brady doesn't like to get hit. Even if you don't get sacks, knock him down a few times and he can get off his game. New England likes to slow a pass rush with a running game and stopping the run is the Eagles strength.

    For New England, I think their entire defense is underrated. I don't know where they stack up as far as league numbers, probably somewhere towards the middle. BUT, first half of the season and second half on the season are night and day. First 4 games they were 2-2 and giving up buckets of points, even in their two wins. Over the second half of the season, they give up single digits except two games, Pittsburgh shootout and the Jacksonville playoff game (20 points).

    I think you might have a real defensive game. Not like 13-10, but maybe 20-17, something along those lines. New England will try to run the ball. If that isn't successful, they will just go to short, dump off passes as a substitute for running game, still controlling the clock and tempo of game.

  5. #45
    that is a good analysis and I agree about a defensive game possible.
    But then you know the biggest defensive superbowl was supposed to be Baltimore vs NYG.....and I think baltimore alone in blowout fashion covered the over.

    I will stick with my "under" scenario and make prop bets under that assumption.

    The pATS were 5th defensively in pts alowed and that includes the first 4 games added in. Eagles are 4th. So they are probably even in that respect.

    I do agree that if u punch brady in the mouth early, he can wilt. Baltimore did that about 10 years ago where in the first quater brady gave up the ball multiple times when being sacked and pressured. Ne lost badly. I will be interested to see if they bring the house here and there. I also think the running game for NE will be stopped. It was never impressive all year. I think the eagles will have a little better success running. I also noticed last game, and it might have been because of the stitches..that brady didnt have alot of zip on the ball, I felt there was alot of time for defense to step in front of passes. But on the other hand I have seen Foles have games recently where his accuracy was poor. But that may have been caused by freezing cold temps.

  6. #46
    Originally Posted by LarryS View Post
    But on the other hand I have seen Foles have games recently where his accuracy was poor. But that may have been caused by freezing cold temps.
    This IS a good point. Foles has started 5 games since Wentz went down. 4 in Philadelphia....2 in December to end the season and 2 in January in the playoffs. The 5th game was in North Jersey in December against the Giants. All cold weather games, at least a couple with wind issues, if I recall.

  7. #47
    who ever wins people wll say they saw it comming.
    If Foles wins they will point to the Minny game and say look how they destroyed them. And if NE wins, people wills say of course...Brady has been there,,done that.

    I saw a stat that Bellichick has coached in 21 percent of all the superbowls.(not all head coach). impressive.

    there is a prop for eagles plus 7.5 at -140 It hay have gone to -150 on the recent half point move. really to win 100, at the levels we bet....whats the difference between betting 110 or 140. I will take that prop as well

  8. #48
    Originally Posted by LarryS View Post
    who ever wins people wll say they saw it comming.
    If Foles wins they will point to the Minny game and say look how they destroyed them. And if NE wins, people wills say of course...Brady has been there,,done that.

    I saw a stat that Bellichick has coached in 21 percent of all the superbowls.(not all head coach). impressive.

    there is a prop for eagles plus 7.5 at -140 It hay have gone to -150 on the recent half point move. really to win 100, at the levels we bet....whats the difference between betting 110 or 140. I will take that prop as well

    I just want to point out that the source of the story regarding the alleged high roller who allegedly won six in a row is probably one person, not necessarily a "they." That source, an MGM spokesperson or director of the sports book, is not beholden to anyone to tell the truth. There's no NGC penalties for "gilding the lily" or "making shit up."

    Maybe the bettor really did win six baseball games in a row. Maybe, however, he shares the same amazing reportage as Floyd Mayweather, whose six figure sports betting wins are routinely reported by sports books around Las Vegas, but his losses very rarely.

    Frankly, if I were running a sports book, I'd seed the Super Bowl hype by having an individual whack a game with the side I want to be whacked, then just sit and quietly go the other way later, a la Billy Walters.

  9. #49
    That is what I was thinking as well. Casinos are smart....they release what they want us to know. And if they want to drum up action of Philly...then what better way than to announce big bets on Philly.
    The only thing is, that in doing that, they are creating a decent middle where everyone can win. That is not good from their perspective,

    Also a fun fact. NE is the designated home team and they get to pick uniform color. Brady picked white. He is 3-0 with white. And the last 12 superbowl winners are 12-1 with white. just for that reason I am sure someone will put 10 mil on NE.

  10. #50
    Originally Posted by redietz View Post
    I just want to point out that the source of the story regarding the alleged high roller who allegedly won six in a row is probably one person, not necessarily a "they." That source, an MGM spokesperson or director of the sports book, is not beholden to anyone to tell the truth. There's no NGC penalties for "gilding the lily" or "making shit up."
    The world series took place the first week after I returned home after my heart surgery, so my interest level was not very high. I had my mind on other things. But I did see the story on several of the local news channels as the week went on. And yes, I believe the source of the story was initially MGM, where the first wagers took place. But if memory serves, MGM refused his 2.75 million dollar wager on game 6, which was the final game he bet. He then went to several other sportsbooks and broke the wager up into smaller parts, I believe Westgate and Southpoint were in play.

    So I don't buy the "making shit up" because in the end, MGM looked bad by refusing his final wager. THAT is not a positive PR play.

  11. #51
    And just think about this for a minute. Big Bad MGM, a multi-Billion dollar gambling enterprise, couldn't handle a 2.75 million dollar wager. AND by all reports limited his superbowl wager to 3 million.

    THIS is NOT Benny Binion's Las Vegas. Benny must be rolling over in his grave!

  12. #52
    but you also have to think....why would a casino announce that the 3 mil bet was made...it only encourages others to bet that way, and drive the spread down causing a bigger middle. So I do have to ask what is the motivation?

  13. #53
    Main reason I can think of is it increases the hype for the Superb Owl and probably will make people more likely to bet.

    If I were a casino and could legally do it and get away with it, I'd be announcing fake big wins and fake big bets all the time. That's assuming I'd never get found out, of course.

  14. #54
    Originally Posted by kewlJ View Post
    And just think about this for a minute. Big Bad MGM, a multi-Billion dollar gambling enterprise, couldn't handle a 2.75 million dollar wager. AND by all reports limited his superbowl wager to 3 million.

    THIS is NOT Benny Binion's Las Vegas. Benny must be rolling over in his grave!
    Sports books are such little shits. I guess casinos in general are. They sweat money like it's nobody's business. My friend gets limited all the time on MLB and college FB, and he's only making $5-10k wagers. I got limited at some MGM joint last FB season for like a $1k or $2k bet and it wasn't even a sharp bet (line moved wrong way and wanted to hedge off some exposure on a parlay). I'm sure you know about BJ on the strip and you can't even bet purple without a damn rectal search (not a gay joke).

  15. #55
    you are right rectal searches are not gay related. Heck I have had many hundreds of rectal searches and I am not gay.

  16. #56
    I was wondering if KJ this is true or anyone that follows the eagles

    Someone on local radio here was saying in this season philly has trouble with the Giants, which is obvious looking at the scores. But the reason he said was that NY ran alot of hurry up.

    Is hurryup offense the kryptonite of the eagles? Because NE has hurryup in their regular play calling. Should they extend the frquency of thos typeof play calling.....is that a concern. Hurryup doesnt allow defensive subs they may need....and its been shown that a sub 500 team like the giants did plenty of scoring against Philly.

    i realize its a double edged sword....if you go 3 and out or even 6 and out.....in a hurryup fashion, it leaves your defense tired out by the second half

    my guess is eagles may ry to slow things down and keep brady off the field, and NE may play fast to not let defensive subs come in....
    Last edited by LarryS; 01-31-2018 at 05:20 PM.

  17. #57
    just located an interesting article......that backs up the above

    http://www.bostonherald.com/sports/p...against_eagles

  18. #58

  19. #59
    Originally Posted by LarryS View Post
    Max bet on the patriots. Fade that stupid seal's picks. He's 1-5 in the last 6 years.

  20. #60
    THAT IS RIDICULOUS

    He has had time to learn from his mistakes, plus he is due.

    This year there is an air of confidence about him.

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