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Thread: William Hill Props

  1. #1
    I picked up the prop pages this past saturday and am going through it.

    I usually make a bunch of props for the fun of watching the game.

    In order to do so, for the type of bets that I make, I need to make some assumptions about the game.(i dont make bets about the coin flip, or bets that require no analysis )

    Its something. A week ago, I was really leaning with the eagles...the underdog. But as the week went by, its almost as if they arent the "underdogs" anymore. With the big multi-million dollar bet on them, and the talk around from sports talking heads...its almost as if the eagles are faves at least for the betting public.
    And thats where I feel I might have to get off the bus. That makes me start to think about the patriots. So if anyone wants to discuss this come on in.

    I dont want to hear if you are a great fan or "feellings" . Just the facts man...Give some interesting tidbits.

    here is some from me on both sides

    NE has a better defense now than their season average....because in the first 4 games....they had poor defensive numbers.
    philly, has a very good defense.....it travels well, and they know they are going to have to win this game with defense.....making me think the under and prop bets that uphold the under are something to look at (like over 3.5 total field goals)

    I saw an interview with Foles, he said his coach when he was leaving college was the only coach to ask him to work out. His coach has alot of confidence in him.....so I dont think he will be sheltered at crunch time like the Jags did with their QB.
    For people that saw NEshut down fornett,,,,do you think they can do it for the eagles....or do the eagles have multiple runningbacks that can do damage....where NE cant key in on onw dude? If NE can run then the eagles with more time of possession is likely or eagles with more rushing yards ttha NE( -9.5 given by eagles)

    I tend to go away from players on NE that had a good offensive day the week before. Amendola had a great day against the Jags, and maybe got some extra looks because gronk was out. So props revoliving aroud amendola...I might go against...like total receptions under 5.

    If I think NE will lose....itspossible for Brady to get alot of yards between the 20's but the have to settle for 3. Which means Brady touchdown passes under 2.5 seems reasonable. Although total brady passing yards 293.5 seems too high. But the masses love brady...and this may be over inflated. May be worth the under

  2. #2
    no score in first 5.5 min......I say no

    it has never happened in a NE/bellichick SB

    whuch keads to a lean to the under in the first Qtr....under 10

  3. #3
    Two years ago, I won Heritage Sports' Race to the Super Bowl, which required selecting each week's NFL slate without spreads, primetime NFL totals, and select college toss-up games. The prize was 25K in Super Bowl bets at Heritage. Being an enterprising sort, I scoured the offshores and Las Vegas for prop middle opportunities. I wound up trying to middle 30-some proposition bets, and there were some reasonable shots in there. In fact, I bumped into another poster at the Westgate right after I'd plunked down a bunch of them. A handful were auto-profits, or arbitrage, but they all had a $500 or 1K limit. Anyway, when the smoke cleared, the only prop I actually middled was a ridiculous "longest punt" prop.

    I shopped until I dropped, and was posting bets right up until 10 minutes before kickoff. I literally cross-referenced hundreds of props from a dozen different places. It was a squinting grunt-grind marathon. All that work, and I middle a "longest punt" prop. Pretty funny.
    Last edited by redietz; 01-30-2018 at 12:47 PM.

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