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Thread: NFL Parlays vs. Spread Bets

  1. #21
    In sports, all you have to do is outperform whoever or whatever is setting the line for a particular sport. That can be done. Where people get in trouble, usually, is when they decide they have the ability to do that across a wide range of different sports. That's a pretty silly default perspective. It's like expecting an obstetrician to be adept at brain surgery and dental work.

    Ok i will bite. If 3 different people can each outperform NFL, NHA and NBA......each person proficient in one.......why couldnt one person learn to be proficient in all 3? I mean if you said that only football was "outperformable" then ok....I can see your point.
    But if outperforming the man who sets the line is doable in different sports....why couldnt one person master 2 or 3.

    I am not claiming that person is me....just hypothetically I ask.

    there are multi-disciplined medical people.....and there are multidiciplined people across different professions, like pharmacists in law enforcement, and accountants who are lawyers....using your analogy.

    i dont see the impossibility theoretically like you do

  2. #22
    I would say simply time. There isn't enough time in a day to properly follow overlapping sports. Maybe baseball and 1 winter sport could be done. But not multiple winter sports.

  3. #23
    I don't think there is any doubt that sports can be beaten.

    The problem is finding enough bets to make significant money or you have to bet very big.

    The sports bettor's edge is only theoretical for any one bet except in very unusual circumstances such as arbitrage. In the long run his edge might be undeniable.

    A blackjack advantage player can pretty easily get down 500 bets in a day. The edge is very small but still.

    Most sports bettors are lucky to fine one or two bets in a day where they perceive a significant edge.
    Last edited by Half Smoke; 03-16-2018 at 11:29 PM.

  4. #24
    Originally Posted by Mission146 View Post
    in the context of the OP. I don’t think anyone super-sharp is going to ask the general question that way.

    super-sharp in math will get you an edge of one half of one percent in sports betting sometimes

    super-sharp in handicapping will get you an edge of 10% sometimes

    Blackjack legend and writer Stanford Wong is super-sharp in math

    He wrote a book about horse racing called "Betting Cheap Claimers" which primarily emphasized math angles to get an edge

    this really bad book is laughable to serious horse players
    Last edited by Half Smoke; 03-17-2018 at 02:00 AM.

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