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Thread: Dan Druff's MLB picks 2018

  1. #121
    Starts very soon (10:10am)

    at Cincinnati (L. Castillo) +118 vs. Cubs (Hendricks)


    11 games starting after 4pm PDT. Will be back closer to that with more (probably).
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  2. #122
    Picked up a win on Cincy in extras.

    They were up 4-2 in the 8th, and blew the lead, mostly thanks to Iglesias melting down after hating some questionable calls on balls. Then they won in the 12th thanks to a bases loaded walk. LOL

    I've been on the fence on a lot of games, but ended up deciding to skip all of them. Just too many reasons not to pick every play I considered.

    So maybe I'll change my mind, but for right now, that's it for the day.
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  3. #123
    10-1 since May 13th, after scoring this win:

    at Cincinnati (L. Castillo) +118 vs. Cubs (Hendricks) - WON +1.180

    ... and none of those 11 were big favorites, while some were big/moderate dogs. So this is a nice run.

    GRAND TOTAL: 53-42-2, +13.769 units

    Overs: 2-3
    Spread (-1.5): 2-1
    Unders: 31-21-2
    Moneylines: 18-17 (a good deal ahead in units)
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  4. #124
    As is often the case on Sundays, I'm having a hard time finding any games I like.

    Considering one play for the Cle/Hou game, but that's not til 5pm, so I will look at that again later.
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  5. #125
    Okay, I do have one wager today.

    Cleveland (Carrasco) at Houston (McCullers) - Under 7.5 -115

    Starts 5pm PDT
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  6. #126
    Interestingly, while I haven't kept track of the exact numbers, roughly half my profits in MLB have been through moneylines this year (despite being only 18-17, due to underdogs), and the other half have been through unders. It's very close regarding which has made more money.
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  7. #127
    If only it were always this easy...

    Cleveland (Carrasco) at Houston (McCullers) - Under 7.5 -115 - WON +0.870

    GRAND TOTAL: 54-42-2, +14.639 units

    Overs: 2-3
    Spread (-1.5): 2-1
    Unders: 32-21-2
    Sides: 18-17 (a good deal ahead in units)

    Now 11-1 in MLB since May 12. I have never won 11 of 12 picks in any sport prior to this. None of these 11 were big favorites, btw.
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  8. #128
    Originally Posted by redietz View Post
    Excellent job, Dan. It's very difficult to beat a "window" sport. You're being selective, but firing at different kinds of plays. Very impressive.
    Thank you. Trying to enjoy this run while it lasts. Obviously will come back to earth at some point, but as long as I keep winning at a decent pace overall, I'll be happy.
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  9. #129
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Nov 2013
    Posts
    172
    Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    If only it were always this easy...

    Cleveland (Carrasco) at Houston (McCullers) - Under 7.5 -115 - WON +0.870

    GRAND TOTAL: 54-42-2, +14.639 units

    Overs: 2-3
    Spread (-1.5): 2-1
    Unders: 32-21-2
    Sides: 18-17 (a good deal ahead in units)

    Now 11-1 in MLB since May 12. I have never won 11 of 12 picks in any sport prior to this. None of these 11 were big favorites, btw.
    How did you win? Houston won the game 3-1. The way your bet is being placed it is as if you are betting on Cleveland to win the game.

  10. #130
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Apr 2015
    Posts
    1,461
    Think he had the under.

  11. #131
    Miami (E. Hernandez) +122 at Mets (Vargas)
    Kansas City (I. Kennedy) at St. Louis (Mikolas) - Under 8.5 -110

    Miami game starting at 4:10pm PDT. St. Louis at 5:15pm.

    NOTES:

    Jason Vargas has a 13.86 ERA and has looked horrible since returning from the DL. There is no evidence he will pitch capably today. Elieser Hernandez is by no means a great option (he had troubles with walks in the minors this year, and doesn't strike out many), but this is a bet against Vargas and a depleted Mets lineup (Cespedes, Lagares, Frazier all out).

    A very high percentage of money bet on the KC/StL total is on the over. So if you want to fade the public, here's your chance.
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  12. #132
    Originally Posted by seemoreroyals View Post
    Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    If only it were always this easy...

    Cleveland (Carrasco) at Houston (McCullers) - Under 7.5 -115 - WON +0.870

    GRAND TOTAL: 54-42-2, +14.639 units

    Overs: 2-3
    Spread (-1.5): 2-1
    Unders: 32-21-2
    Sides: 18-17 (a good deal ahead in units)

    Now 11-1 in MLB since May 12. I have never won 11 of 12 picks in any sport prior to this. None of these 11 were big favorites, btw.
    How did you win? Houston won the game 3-1. The way your bet is being placed it is as if you are betting on Cleveland to win the game.
    You must have misunderstood my post. If I list the two teams and don't post a line next to either of them, but have a total listed after (such as "Under 8.5") then it's a total pick.

    So looking at the pics I just posted today, I'm betting Miami +122 and KC under 8.5 -110.
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  13. #133
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Nov 2013
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    172
    Thank you for clarification.

  14. #134
    at Cincinnati (Harvey) +106 vs. Pittsburgh (Taillon)
    Detroit (M. Boyd) at Minnesota (Lynn) - Under 9 -120

    *** NOTES ***

    Minnesota game is a bit weird, line-wise. Lance Lynn has been HORRIBLE this season, including recently, and yet you can get +153 against him. Even weirder? The public is piling on Detroit (which is unusual, for the public to pound the underdog), and the line keeps getting better -- known as reverse line movement. This looks very much like a Trapper John MD situation, and I'd stay away from the Detroit moneyline here, as tempting as it might be to get +153 against one of the worst starting pitchers in 2018 baseball. But I do like the under here.

    Cincy game may get rained out. But no harm in firing a bet on it anyway.
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  15. #135


    Right back into the W column with an easy 2-0 day. Not much of a sweat on either of them.

    Record keeping:

    5/21:
    Miami (E. Hernandez) +122 at Mets (Vargas) - LOST -1
    Kansas City (I. Kennedy) at St. Louis (Mikolas) - Under 8.5 -110 - WON +0.909
    5/21 total: 1-1, -0.091 units

    5/22:
    at Cincinnati (Harvey) +106 vs. Pittsburgh (Taillon) - WON +1.060
    Detroit (M. Boyd) at Minnesota (Lynn) - Under 9 -120 - WON +0.833
    5/22 total: 2-0, +1.893 units

    Last two days: 3-1, +1.802 units

    GRAND TOTAL: 57-43-2, +16.441 units

    Overs: 2-3
    Spread (-1.5): 2-1
    Unders: 34-21-2
    Moneyline: 19-18 (a good deal ahead in units due to mostly underdogs)

    I'm 14-2, +12.72 units since May 12
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

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