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Thread: Dan Druff's MLB picks 2018

  1. #1
    History:

    Did well in 2016 (didn't keep track of dollar value, but I won for sure)

    Had a bad start to 2017 and quit early in the season.

    New strategy for this year.

    First pick of the season:

    Chicago Cubs under 8.5 - starting in about 40 min
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  2. #2
    Let's throw in another under, this time in the AL:

    Chicago White Sox (R. Lopez) at Toronto (J. Garcia) under 9
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  3. #3
    Good luck, Dan!

    I know nothing about baseball, and have a real difficult time betting on a sport where the fields of play are radically different team to team. It boggles my mind.

    I am, however, courageous enough to risk almost nothing on daily fantasy sports and report the outcomes. I have a counterintuitive idea or two, and we'll see how it goes. My standard game will be the $9 classic daily Fanduel.

  4. #4
    I will be tracking the MLB picks in units and win/loss, with units obviously being what's important.

    Expect mainly unders, dogs, and small favorites from me.

    Nice 2-0 start to the MLB season.

    Cubs/Reds easily came in, with just 1 run scored.

    Blue Jays/White Sox started off great, but a few late runs made it a minor (albeit not very nerve-wracking) sweat. 6 runs still far below the 9 run total.

    Toronto under: +0.943 units (-106)
    Chicago under: +0.935 units (-107)

    Record so far:

    2-0, +1.878 units


    No picks today. Don't like anything, but I did make one NBA pick (see that thread).
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  5. #5
    Two MLB plays so far.

    One is on the Dodgers. I admit I won't be betting AGAINST the Dodgers this year because I'm such a big fan and don't want to root against them. But I will bet for them when I truly feel like they're going to win, and when the line appears to have value.

    Dodgers (Wood) -130 at Arizona (Corbin)


    The other is an over/under

    Cleveland (Kluber) at Angels (Skaggs) Under 7 +100

    May have one more (Giants) later.
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  6. #6
    San Francisco (Cueto) -130 vs. Seattle (F. Hernandez)

    This is more of a "feel" pick than anything else, so beware.

    Dodgers laid a big egg and lost 3-0.

    Cleveland under on pace to win, 2-2 in the 7th.
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  7. #7
    Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    San Francisco (Cueto) -130 vs. Seattle (F. Hernandez)

    This is more of a "feel" pick than anything else, so beware.

    Dodgers laid a big egg and lost 3-0.

    Cleveland under on pace to win, 2-2 in the 7th.

    Those last two were solid as a rock.

    Quick note on the fantasy front: I haven't found a lineup I was willing to invest nine dollars in. That's how bad it has looked to me. Basically, I've found pitchers who have done well enough, but some of the NL games (like SF/Sea today) have blown up and I would have had none of the players doing the damage. I've tracked it, and the lineups I came closest to playing would have done no better than the 60-65 percentile, which means not close to cashing. Until I track a few days where my proposed teams at least come close to cashing, this is a no go. And we haven't even gotten to Colorado home games yet, which make the offensive decisions even harder.

  8. #8
    Giants came in easily. Glad I fired on that.

    Split my other two baseball picks, losing Dodgers -130 but winning Angels/Cleveland under 7 +100 (after 13 grueling innings).

    Yesterday's 2-1 went as follows:

    Dodgers -130: -1.0 units
    Angels under 7 +100: +1.0 units
    Giants -130: +0.769 units

    So that's another +0.769 units.

    MLB record: 4-1, +2.647 units
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  9. #9
    Starting at 1:10pm PDT:
    Detroit (Zimmerman) +118 at White Sox (Shields)

    Starting at 4:05pm PDT:
    Cincinnati (Bailey) at Pittsburgh (Brault) Under 8 -115
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  10. #10
    Two nailbiters today, but the record is the same as if they were blowout wins.

    Cincy/Pitt under 8 squeaks by in a 5-2 game (and it was 5-1 after 5 innings), and Detroit comes back from 3 down with 2 out and a runner on first in the 9th, to win 9-7 in extras.

    Detroit +118: +1.18 units
    Cincy/Pitt under 8 -115: +0.870 units

    Total for day: 2-0, +2.050 units.

    MLB Season total: 6-1, +4.697 units
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  11. #11
    Cin/Pit under yesterday was so nice, we'll do it twice.

    Cincy (L. Castillo) at Pittsburgh (T. Williams) under 7.5 +105

    Game at 4:05pm PDT
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  12. #12
    Lost the pick on Friday, dropping me to 6-2 and +3.697 units.

    One baseball pick today:

    Atlanta (Teheran) at Washington (Scherzer) - Under 7.5 -105
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  13. #13
    Won yesterday. Now 7-2 and +4.649 units.

    Today:

    Milwaukee (Suter) at St. Louis (C. Martinez) - under 7.5 +105
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  14. #14
    Anyone who doesn't think I run bad, look at how I lost the last pick.

    2-1 in the bottom of the 9th, 3-2 in the bottom of the 10th, 3-3 in the bottom of 11th.

    Lose 5-3 to a 2-run walk off HR.

    Small dog to start the day:

    Kansas City (Duffy) +120 vs. Seattle (Paxton)

    Game starts 11:15am PDT
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  15. #15
    Lost the above pick.

    I made 3 more, but they already started. I posted them on time on my PFA forum, but forgot to repost here.

    NY (Wheeler) at Miami (Jar. Garcia) - Under 8.5 -105
    Miami +125
    Cincinnati (L. Castillo) at Philadelphia (Pivetta) - Under 7.5 -105
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  16. #16
    Won the two unders at -105, lost both sides.

    Came into the day 7-3, +3.649 units.

    The two sides were -2 units total, and the two winners at -105 were +1.905 units total, for a net loss of -0.095 units today.

    Current record 9-5, +3.554 units.

    Like the NBA, it appears my early season talents lie more with totals.

    I'm now 2-3 on sides, with the two winners being -130 and +118.

    I'm now 7-2 on totals and I would be 8-1 if it weren't for that fluke extra innings screw job on Tuesday.

    It's also important to note that I got very lucky on one of my side wins, and I got very unlucky on that aforementioned total. So I could just as easily be 1-4 on sides and 8-1 on totals.

    Either way, it's too hard to draw conclusions from this small sample space, but I may stick primarily to totals if this pattern continues.

    ======================

    TODAY:

    Starts at 4:10 PDT

    Yankees (Gray) at Boston (Porcello) - Under 9 +110
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  17. #17
    Sorry for the late posting.

    Here's some picks for today's upcoming games, which start very shortly:

    Colorado (Freeland) at Wsahington (Roark) - Under 8.5 +105 (Under 9 -120 or better also ok)
    Philadelphia (Velasquez) at Tampa Bay (Faria) - Over 8 -115
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  18. #18
    Here's another.

    Still looking at the late games (the ones starting 7pm west coast time).

    Kansas City (Hammel) +152 vs. Angels (Heaney)

    My first decent sized dog pick of the year.

    Heaney was a well-regarded prospect who had one decent year (2015) and two horrendous ones (2016 and 2017) and is just coming off elbow AND shoulder inflammation (lol).

    The Royals (aka Fake Dodgers) are awful, but they're at home, Hammel looked good last time out, any Heaney's elbow is so questionable that he was listed as "probable" for today's start as of yesterday (rather than certain).

    So, yeah, I'll take +152 here all day.

    Starts 5:15pm PT
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  19. #19
    Had a 4-2 lead in the 7th with KC, then 4-3 in the 8th, and they lost. Ugh.

    Came in 9-5-1, +3.554 units

    Colorado +105 under: +1.05 units
    Philly over: -1 unit
    KC side: -1 unit

    Total today: 1-2, -0.95 units

    Total record:

    10-7-1, +2.604 units

    Subrecord:

    2-4 sides
    8-2 unders
    0-1 overs
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  20. #20
    Early game:

    Cincinnati (Finnegan) vs. St. Louis (Mikolas) - Under 9.5 -120

    Starts in 15 min
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

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