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Thread: Dan Druff's MLB picks 2018

  1. #221
    Justin Bieber is pitching, and he never loses. So I have to be the under.

    Cleveland (Bieber) at Cincinnati (Stephenson) - Under 9 -115
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  2. #222
    Colorado (J. Gray) at Atlanta (Teheran) - Under 8.5 -115
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  3. #223
    Here we go:

    Baltimore (Hess) at Cleveland (Carrasco) - Under 8.5 +105 (under 9 up to -125 ok) - starts 4:10pm PT
    at San Diego (Lucchesi) +120 vs. Arizona (Ray) - starts 7:10pm PT

    Looking at the KC under but not sure about it yet. (starts 5:10 PT)
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  4. #224
    Decided to skip the KC game. Will stick with the two I posted.
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  5. #225
    BTW, yesterday with Atlanta/Col Under 8.5, I first I got unlucky, then I got lucky.

    3-2 after 8.

    You knew what was going to happen.

    3 runs in the top of the 9th, and its 5-3.

    Then a leadoff single for Freeman. A strikeout, and then a stolen base and another out.

    Then Inciarte hit a textbook base hit to right, which would have scored Freeman and beaten me, but it wasn't a base hit. 6'4" DJ LeMahieu leaped up and caught it over his head, and the game was over.
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  6. #226
    We have some unders today, but they start soon!

    Miami (Chen) at Washington (J. Rodriguez) - Under 9.5
    Colorado (Senzatela) at Atlanta (Foltynewicz) - Under 8.5 -115
    KC (Keller) at White Sox (Covey) - Under 9 +105
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  7. #227
    Won 7 of last 9 after an extended slump. 7-1 in last 8 unders, and the only loser was very close (Miami/Atl).

    8/13:
    Washington (Milone) at St. Louis (Mikolas) - Under 8.5 +100 - LOST -1
    8/14
    Boston (Porcello) at Philly (Pivetta) - Under 9 -125 - WON +0.800
    Tampa (H Wood) at Yankees (Happ) - Under 8.5 -107 - WON +0.935
    8/15
    Cleveland (Bieber) at Cincinnati (Stephenson) - Under 9 -115 - WON +0.870
    8/16
    Colorado (J. Gray) at Atlanta (Teheran) - Under 8.5 -115 - WON +0.870
    8/17
    Baltimore (Hess) at Cleveland (Carrasco) - Under 8.5 +105 - WON +1.050
    at San Diego (Lucchesi) +120 vs. Arizona (Ray) - LOST -1
    8/18
    Miami (Chen) at Washington (J. Rodriguez) - Under 9.5 - LOST -1
    Colorado (Senzatela) at Atlanta (Foltynewicz) - Under 8.5 -115 - WON +0.870
    KC (Keller) at White Sox (Covey) - Under 9 +105 - WON +1.050

    TOTAL 8/13-8/18: 7-3, +3.445

    Overs: 3-4
    Spread (-1.5): 2-1
    Unders: 59-44-2
    Moneyline: 24-31 (a little below even in units)

    Grand total: 87-78-2, +9.770 units
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  8. #228
    No picks today. I usually skip Sunday because it's the hardest day in MLB to handicap.
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  9. #229
    I didn't make picks on Sunday or Monday.

    I'm coming roaring back today with three of them. And you even have time to bet them!

    What a world!

    Baltimore (Bundy) at Toronto (Gaviglio) - Under 8.5 -105 (9 up to -130 ok)
    Cleveland (Bieber) at Boston (Eovaldi) - Under 9 -105
    Cincinnati (Romano) at Milwaukee (Junior Guerra) - Under 9 -115

    Lines on two of them are better on Bovada today, FYI.
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  10. #230
    Ruined a nice little run up by going 0-2-1 on Tuesday. No picks past two days if you noticed.

    Can't find any unders I like today.

    Soooo....

    How about an over?

    Overs are by no means my specialty, but here it is:

    St. Louis (Mikolas) at Colorado (Senzatela) - Over 10.5 -115
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  11. #231
    MLB in 10 minutes:

    KC/Pitt Under 8 -120 (7.5 -105 ok)
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  12. #232
    Mia/Cin under 8 -105 (8.5 -120 or better ok)

    Starts 4:10 PT
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  13. #233
    8/21:
    Baltimore (Bundy) at Toronto (Gaviglio) - Under 8.5 -105 (9 up to -130 ok) - LOST -1
    Cleveland (Bieber) at Boston (Eovaldi) - Under 9 -105 - TIED
    Cincinnati (Romano) at Milwaukee (Junior Guerra) - Under 9 -115 - LOST -1

    8/24:
    St. Louis (Mikolas) at Colorado (Senzatela) - Over 10.5 -115 - WON +0.870

    9/19:
    KC at Pittsburgh - Under 8 -120 - WON +0.833

    9/20:
    Cincinnati at Miami - Under 8 -105 - WON +0.952

    TOTAL 8/21-9/20: 3-2-1, +0.655

    Overs: 4-4
    Spread (-1.5): 2-1
    Unders: 61-46-2
    Moneyline: 24-31 (a little below even in units)

    Grand total: 91-82-3, +10.425 units
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  14. #234
    Cubs (Lester) at White Sox (Giolito) Under 9 -117

    Starts 4:10 PT
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  15. #235
    Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    8/21:
    Baltimore (Bundy) at Toronto (Gaviglio) - Under 8.5 -105 (9 up to -130 ok) - LOST -1
    Cleveland (Bieber) at Boston (Eovaldi) - Under 9 -105 - TIED
    Cincinnati (Romano) at Milwaukee (Junior Guerra) - Under 9 -115 - LOST -1

    8/24:
    St. Louis (Mikolas) at Colorado (Senzatela) - Over 10.5 -115 - WON +0.870

    9/19:
    KC at Pittsburgh - Under 8 -120 - WON +0.833

    9/20:
    Cincinnati at Miami - Under 8 -105 - WON +0.952

    TOTAL 8/21-9/20: 3-2-1, +0.655

    Overs: 4-4
    Spread (-1.5): 2-1
    Unders: 61-46-2
    Moneyline: 24-31 (a little below even in units)

    Grand total: 91-82-3, +10.425 units
    Can you explain this to me a little bit.
    Let us round down and say you are up 10 units ok?
    Your grand total for the Season is 91-82-3 which in my mind is respectable.
    However what is the point if you are up only 10 units for the season.
    I suppose I could understand it if 1 unit equals 10,000 dollars or 100,000 dollars.
    If 1 unit only equals 100 dollars or even 1000 dollars would someone like me be risking far too much in a 6 month window?
    I mean it seems like you are at .5% return on your money or around that number.
    I don't mind pounding a .5% advantage if I can roll the dollars in non stop and rotate millions through it but in my calculations for the whole season I can only get around 200k in action if I am betting units worth 1000 dollars each.
    I guess it is a grind like anything else and more of a hobby?
    Is this the norm with handicapping?
    Can one who handicaps to make money expect about .5% return on their investment?

  16. #236
    it's not a .5% return (approximately) it's a 5% return.

    Dan didn't make a lot of bets. Yes, you have to bet pretty big to make a healthy income.

    If a player gets 500 bets on 3 different sports in a year and he bets $5,000 per game his total action is $2,500,000.

    a 5% edge will earn him $125,000 for the year.

    most sharps will probably bet uneven amounts and plunge deeply when they have a very strong opinion in a game.

    probably most will not have an edge as great as 5% (unless they are very selective and make many fewer bets in which case they would have to bet much larger to make the same amount) and will not make as much as that would indicate

    still, they would see it as worth the effort to them.

    actually Dan's ROI was a little over 6% if you don't consider pushes.

    Dan's stats are impressive.
    Last edited by Half Smoke; 09-24-2018 at 03:25 AM.
    please don't feed the trolls

  17. #237
    Originally Posted by Half Smoke View Post
    it's not a .5% return (approximately) it's a 5% return.

    Dan didn't make a lot of bets. Yes, you have to bet pretty big to make a healthy income.

    If a player gets 500 bets on 3 different sports in a year and he bets $5,000 per game his total action is $2,500,000.

    a 5% edge will earn him $125,000 for the year.

    most sharps will probably bet uneven amounts and plunge deeply when they have a very strong opinion in a game.

    probably most will not have an edge as great as 5% (unless they are very selective and make many fewer bets in which case they would have to bet much larger to make the same amount) and will not make as much as that would indicate

    still, they would see it as worth the effort to them.

    actually Dan's ROI was a little over 6% if you don't consider pushes.

    Dan's stats are impressive.
    Alright I am learning here.
    Take me to school and thank you!
    I don't understand what a unit is or what it means I suppose.
    I always thought a unit was equal to the size of one wager.
    I honestly do not know or have enough knowledge about handicapping or sports betting in general.

    I do understand that you would move your bets around but wouldn't that increase your + or - with total units won?
    So 200 total bets and you are up 10 units... Ok I see how that would translate to a 5% return.
    Say 1000 dollars a unit or bet. $200,000 in action and you are up 10 units meaning you are up 10,000 dollars for the season or total amount wagered.
    Not sure where I came up with the .5% lol. I guess I didn't move the decimal point.

    Would you say that a 5% return is the norm for a good handicapper or is that above average?
    I haven't followed this thread or the others enough to know if he is giving up the information when to increase amount wagered on a specific event.
    When you say the sharper players increase wagers or bet uneven does that make the variance go up?
    Are those increased or uneven wagers going to have a much higher success rate?
    If they do wouldn't you be better off to wait for the games that the sharps bet the higher amounts compared to the regular games?

    For instance say that on normal games you only bet 1 unit.
    On Special Games or what you might call Locks you bet 1.5 units.
    If I only bet on the Special games will my return be greater at the end of the year?
    Or do I need all bets combined to come out with a 3% to 5% return and less variance?

    I suppose if you are getting into this you are going to get into the online books and take advantage of all the promotions which will increase your return?

  18. #238
    a lot of questions on a complicated subject.

    I hope this will help:

    probably some but few play with the maximum efficiency indicated in my example

    a lot are APs in other fields looking to supplement their income maybe by making 10 - 20K betting sports and they would be betting much less

    there is no public documentation of how great an edge successful sports bettors have - it varies - and particularly correlates to the number of bets they make - the fewer the greater edge they are likely to have

    I would say, that if you don't see yourself as having an edge of 4% or more it may not be worth the time

    the most famous sports bettor of all time, Billy Walters, now in jail for insider trading, made thousands of huge bets in a year using runners and I would guess his edge was not huge. there is a great book about him where they change his name to Big Daddy, but everybody knows it's him. The book is called "Smart Money" by Michael Konik. the book is true but he fictionalized the names of people. From reading your post it sounds like you might greatly enjoy this book.

    yes, if you make much bigger bets your variance will greatly increase

    some sports bettors, particularly with horses try to get over with giant scores from extreme exotic bets such as the Pick 6 which will often pay hundreds of thousands. Some sports bettors try for huge parlays with big payouts too. If that's how they play it's difficult if not impossible to say what their edge is since the variance is gigantic. I heard a horse player who won a million on a pick 6 say that he proved himself and cemented his legacy as a great handicapper. Bullshit. It could of just been luck. Who knows?

    yes, sharps try to score bonuses and promotions from online books. they also can get hassled by those same books especially by changing the odds on them before they can bet. mickeycrimm has a post indicating that Bovada did that to him and I'm pretty sure he just plays for fun. I've also heard that Vegas books will hassle sharps especially if they're betting big.

    the most fascinating and difficult thing for a sports bettor to deal with is that his edge on any event is only theoretical (except in some very unusual instances such as arbritage) and cannot be proven. Nobody can prove that they have a 5% edge when they bet the Giants against the Eagles.

    A sports bettor might find that his edge gets smaller or even disappears as he gets older and less sharp as just about everybody does. Or if he experiences great stress in his life for some reason.

    When a sports bettor such as Dan says he is betting one unit that is just a way for his followers to figure out how he is doing, his edge. He knows they could be betting any amount so he doesn't say what that amount is. Those following can convert it to the size of their bets.

    Sports betting is a fascinating subject.

    Good Luck
    Last edited by Half Smoke; 09-24-2018 at 06:19 AM.
    please don't feed the trolls

  19. #239
    Yep, i bet pretty small on Bovada, 20 to $100 a game. I'm not a real handicapper so i look for differences in the bovada lines from the Vegas Insider lines.
    "More importantly, mickey thought 8-4 was two games over .500. Argued about it. C'mon, man. Nothing can top that for math expertise. If GWAE ever has you on again, you can be sure I'll be calling in with that gem.'Nuff said." REDIETZ

  20. #240
    Texas (Sampson) at Angels (Pena) - Under 8.5 -115
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