I actually bet pretty much the same thing on every game.

I find that when you start rating plays and betting bigger on the "better" ones, you sometimes regret it. Nothing worse than having a +EV handicapping season based upon your picks, but losing because you bet unevenly.

Half Smoke mostly covered everything else. Edges in sports are hard to come by because of the house juice and the natural variance of sports contests. That's why when you see someone claiming to hit 70% of his picks, you know he's a scammer. Nobody does that long or even medium-term. It's just too damn hard to maintain.

I will be making NBA picks when that season gets going, though I will be watchful in the second half, when I slumped last year. In November and December, not only was I winning at a nice clip, but I was picking up tons of blowout wins, which is indicative that you're really on the right track.