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Thread: Dan Druff's MLB picks 2018

  1. #21
    Won the above pick, even though it got hairy in the 9th with the bases loaded and 1 out.

    Note that I'm 9-2-1 with unders and 2-5-1 with everything else, so bet accordingly with these final 2 of the day:

    KC (Junis) +152 vs. Angels (G. Richards)
    Milwaukee +104 (C. Anderson) at Mets (Harvey)
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  2. #22
    Today's recap for me:

    KC (Junis) +152 vs. Angels (G. Richards) - LOST -1
    Milwaukee +104 (C. Anderson) at Mets (Harvey) - WON +1.040
    Cincinnati (Finnegan) vs. St. Louis (Mikolas) - Under 9.5 -120 - WON +0.833

    Total for day: 2-1, +0.873

    Total for reason: 12-8-1, +3.477 units

    Damn Royals got me again, for the third time this season.

    Unders 9-2
    Overs 0-1
    Sides 3-5
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  3. #23
    Starting very soon:

    Baltimore (Bundy) at Boston (Sale) - Under 6.5 -110


    Starting in a few hours:
    San Diego (Lucchesi) -118 vs. San Francisco (Beede)
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  4. #24
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    Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    Starting very soon:

    Baltimore (Bundy) at Boston (Sale) - Under 6.5 -110


    Starting in a few hours:
    San Diego (Lucchesi) -118 vs. San Francisco (Beede)
    Excellent job, Dan.

    I was surprised at the Padres line. I expected quite a bit higher. Do you think the Padres are undervalued in general?

  5. #25
    I don't think the Padres are very good, so they're not usually undervalued. Lucchesi is very undervalued at the moment, though, so I might keep riding him.

    Yesterday was a great situation for the Padres because the SF pitcher (Beede) hasn't shown he can get it together, even in the minors.
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  6. #26
    White Sox (Rey. Lopez) +133 at Oakland (Mengden)

    Colorado (Marquez) at Pittsburgh (Brault) - Under 8 -113
    Washington (Hellickson) at NY Mets (Degrom) - Under 7.5 -102

    Warning about the White Sox pick: It's very "public"... the line is baffling to many, and the public is all over it. This is often a trap. I'm going with it anyway, but I feel dirty about it.
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  7. #27
    Bad day yesterday going 0-2-1. The Chicago White Sox pick wasn't mine, but rather was from someone on my PFA forum. But I endorsed it (though was nervous), and therefore it becomes part of my record.

    Not that my picks yesterday were any good, either.

    Here's tonight's under:

    San Francisco (Cueto) at Arizona (Corbin) - under 8 -115

    Note: Cueto's ankle is sore
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  8. #28
    A different PFA user, from the Boston area who actually hates the Red Sox, is backing them tonight.

    I have to agree.

    Betts is playing tonight. That was questionable until very recently.

    Price had that weird hand numbness which caused him to give up 4 runs in 1 inning and then miss a start, but he's back. That's the one red flag.

    The one bright side is that Price suffered the same in a previous year, and he recovered quickly without issue.

    So yeah, I'll take the +151.

    Boston +151 (Price) at Angels (Ohtani)


    FYI the public is with the Angels on this one, and Vegas books are also of the opinion that the Angels will win, judging from line movement patterns. So that last part is kind of a red flag, but it's not a Trapper John situation, since this isn't the public side, nor was the opening line made to appeal to our side.
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  9. #29
    Took both of these easily. Boston won 10-1, and the under was a 1-0 game, and almost a no-hitter.

    MLB Record update:

    As of 4/14:
    12-8-1, +3.477 units

    4/15:
    Baltimore (Bundy) at Boston (Sale) - Under 6.5 -110 - WON +0.909
    San Diego (Lucchesi) -118 vs. San Francisco (Beede) - WON +0.847
    TOTAL 4/15: 2-0, +1.756 UNITS

    4/16:
    White Sox (Rey. Lopez) +133 at Oakland (Mengden) - LOST -1
    Colorado (Marquez) at Pittsburgh (Brault) - Under 8 -113 - TIED +0
    Washington (Hellickson) at NY Mets (Degrom) - Under 7.5 -102 - LOST -1
    TOTAL 4/16: 0-2-1, -2.000 UNITS

    4/17:
    San Francisco (Cueto) at Arizona (Corbin) under 8 -115 - WON +0.870
    Boston (Price) +151 at Angels (Ohtani) - WON +1.510
    TOTAL 4/17: 2-0, +2.380 UNITS

    TOTAL LAST 3 DAYS: 4-2-1, +2.136 UNITS

    SEASON TOTAL: 16-10-2, +5.613 UNITS
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  10. #30
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    Are you using a similar method that you used for NBA picks for these MLB picks?

  11. #31
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    Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    A different PFA user, from the Boston area who actually hates the Red Sox, is backing them tonight.

    I have to agree.

    Betts is playing tonight. That was questionable until very recently.

    Price had that weird hand numbness which caused him to give up 4 runs in 1 inning and then miss a start, but he's back. That's the one red flag.

    The one bright side is that Price suffered the same in a previous year, and he recovered quickly without issue.

    So yeah, I'll take the +151.

    Boston +151 (Price) at Angels (Ohtani)


    FYI the public is with the Angels on this one, and Vegas books are also of the opinion that the Angels will win, judging from line movement patterns. So that last part is kind of a red flag, but it's not a Trapper John situation, since this isn't the public side, nor was the opening line made to appeal to our side.
    These were Rock of Gibraltar plays. The Boston line seemed way off, and without Dan, I would never have noticed it. I love following these sides plays. I am no baseball buff, but to my na´ve eyes, this BoSox and earlier Padres had great value.

  12. #32
    Quick super last minute play:

    Tampa (Faria) +110 vs. Texas (Hamels)
    Tampa/Texas - Under 7.5 +103

    redietz. yes, I loved the Padres and Boston sides bets recently. Definitely great value on both.
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  13. #33
    Originally Posted by RS__ View Post
    Are you using a similar method that you used for NBA picks for these MLB picks?
    Somewhat.

    It remains to be seen if these unders will crash in a similar fashion to the way they did in the NBA for me in the second half.
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  14. #34
    Both Tampa picks won. Sorry such short notice.

    Here's another on short notice:

    (starts 4:10 PST)

    Washington (Roark) at NY Mets (Matz) - Under 8 -120

    You can get -115 on Bovada on some accounts right now, btw.
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  15. #35
    Offense is happening tonight in two AL games.

    18 runs so far in the A's/White Sox game, and 20 runs so far with the Blue Jays and Royals.

    Anyway, I'm considering backing the Giants tonight. Stratton is an underrated pitcher, and should probably be good for some value for awhile. It's too bad he plays on such a bad team. Doesn't help that Longoria has had a bad ankle the entire year (hence his bad start), and Panik is out tonight.

    But I'm still considering it. Game starts at 6:40 PDT, so I'll update soon.
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  16. #36
    San Francisco (Stratton) +141 at Arizona (Ray)

    Starts at 6:40 PDT
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  17. #37
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    I done fucked up.

    Hopefully Giants win tomorrow at least....askdghaklsdfhaksdfhakjsdflakdsfa

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