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Thread: Dan Druff's MLB picks 2018

  1. #101
    Hopefully some of you got in that Detroit pick, as it won (albeit barely, thanks to 9th inning drama).

    Here is a night game, in the same vein of the blowout Padres pick yesterday which lost:

    at San Diego (T. Ross) +107 vs. St. Louis (Wacha)
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  2. #102
    No picks today.

    Through 5/10: 43-39-2, +5.721 units

    5/11:
    Milwaukee (Woodruff) at Colorado - Under 11.5 -110 LOST -1
    at San Diego (Lauer) +127 vs. St. Louis (L. Weaver) - LOST -1
    Total 5/11: 0-2, -2.0 units

    5/12:
    **GAME 1** at Detroit (Boyd) +134 vs. Seattle (M. Gonzalez) - WON +1.340
    at San Diego (T. Ross) +107 vs. St. Louis (Wacha) - WON +1.070
    Total 5/12: 2-0, +2.410 units

    5/13:
    NONE

    TOTAL 5/11-5/1: 2-2, +0.410

    GRAND TOTAL: 45-41. +6.131 units

    Overs: 2-3
    Spread (-1.5): 2-1
    Unders: 27-21-2
    Sides: 14-16
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  3. #103
    Nothing on the early MLB games.

    Might go with the Angels under tonight (starting after 7pm PDT), but right now I'm still examining it.
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  4. #104
    Probably gonna skip the Angels under tonight, again probably leaving me with no picks today.

    Will be the first time in 2018 since I started betting this MLB season that I am going 2 days in a row with no picks.
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  5. #105
    Early MLB game:

    at San Diego (Lyles) -104 vs. Colorado (G. Marquez)

    Rockies have a thin lineup, missing LeMahieu (DL) and Blackmon (rest).

    Lyles is off to a surprisingly good start this year (mostly in relief, but he's traditionally a starter), and will be facing his former team.

    Marquez has bad numbers, but has actually performed well on the road, as is sometimes the case for Rockies pitchers. (I'm mentioning this because betting against him here isn't the no-brainer you might think it is.) Still, I believe this will be a Padres win.
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  6. #106
    I'll throw this pick in, too, even though I hate paying this price for a totals pick.

    Colorado/SD (see above post for details) - under 7.5 -125
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  7. #107
    Record keeping:

    at San Diego (Lyles) -104 vs. Colorado (G. Marquez) - WON +0.962 units
    San Diego/Colorado - Under 7.5 -125 - WON +0.800 units

    TOTAL 5/15: 2-0, +1.762 units

    GRAND TOTAL: 47-41-2, +7.893 units

    Overs: 2-3
    Spread (-1.5): 2-1
    Unders: 28-21-2
    Sides: 15-16 (winning record in units)


    For those wondering, my MLB record so far is equivalent to hitting about 57% of -110 NBA spread games.

    So it's going pretty well after 90 picks. I've made a few adjustments already, which is part of the reason you're seeing fewer picks per day recently.
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  8. #108
    Several early MLB games today.

    Here's one starting at 10:10am PDT.

    Cleveland (Bauer) at Detroit (Carpenter) - Under 9 -120

    May have another around noon.
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  9. #109
    Was considering the Texas under, but decided against it.

    No more picks until perhaps the later (4pm PDT) games, which I'll revisit after 3pm.
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  10. #110
    Should have taken Texas under, as that covered.

    But so did the Cleveland under, making it my 5th win in a row.

    Record keeping:

    Cleveland (Bauer) at Detroit (Carpenter) - Under 9 -120 - WON +0.833

    GRAND TOTAL: 48-41-2, +8.726 units

    Overs: 2-3
    Spread (-1.5): 2-1
    Unders: 29-21-2
    Sides: 15-16 (winning record in units)
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  11. #111
    Only one pick tonight, and it's a night game.

    Colorado (Bettis) +127 at San Francisco (Samardzija)

    Bettis gave up 7 ER last time out, but look more closely. In his 5 road starts this year (i.e. away from Coors), he has give up 0-2 ER each time, and looked great. Two of his three home starts have been bad.

    Samardzija has been bad all around, and has been bombed in 3 of his 5 starts this year, holding an ERA near 7 and a bad WHIP as well.
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  12. #112
    Rockies win in 12!

    Record keeping:

    Colorado (Bettis) +127 at San Francisco (Samardzija) - WON +1.270

    GRAND TOTAL: 49-41-2, +9.996 units

    Overs: 2-3
    Spread (-1.5): 2-1
    Unders: 29-21-2
    Sides: 16-16 (winning record in units)

    I'm now a hair under 10 units in the black, a season-high. My last loss was 6 days ago on Friday, when I went 0-2.
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  13. #113
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Apr 2015
    Posts
    1,671
    Good stuff, Dan.

    I'm sure I've asked this before, or at least I've thought of asking it - sorry if I'm repeating myself or you've answered this already....but do you bet ACTION vs ACTION, PITCHER vs PITCHER, or something else? I don't check often enough to verify how likely/unlikely it is for the listed starter to not start. I've just always bet A vs A, but now that I think of it, it probably makes the most sense to bet P vs P, since (I'd imagine?) a large part of what makes the lines is who the starting pitchers are.

  14. #114
    Originally Posted by RS__ View Post
    Good stuff, Dan.

    I'm sure I've asked this before, or at least I've thought of asking it - sorry if I'm repeating myself or you've answered this already....but do you bet ACTION vs ACTION, PITCHER vs PITCHER, or something else? I don't check often enough to verify how likely/unlikely it is for the listed starter to not start. I've just always bet A vs A, but now that I think of it, it probably makes the most sense to bet P vs P, since (I'd imagine?) a large part of what makes the lines is who the starting pitchers are.
    I bet listed pitcher. As you said, it's a huge part of the reason for the bet.
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  15. #115
    No picks yet.

    Looking at:

    St. Louis moneyline
    KC moneyline
    Tampa Bay under

    I'll be back in about 4 hours with this.
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  16. #116
    My win streak is likely over today, as I have 4 picks, including 2 fairly big dogs.

    3 starting very soon:
    at Kansas City (Junis) +171 vs. Yankees (Sabathia)
    Kansas City/Yankees - Under 9 +105
    Cleveland (Clevinger) +152 at Houston (Morton)

    And one later:
    Colorado (Freeland) at San Francisco (Holland) - Under 8.5 -120
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  17. #117
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Apr 2015
    Posts
    1,671
    I took a fair amount of doggos today and so far looking good.

  18. #118
    Yeah took 2 of the early 3, and SF under looking fairly good right now.

    I was going to also do Cardinals -115 but my friend talked me out of it. Of course they're up 5-0.
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  19. #119
    Lost my first game in a week today, but I'm still 9-1 since May 12.

    at Kansas City (Junis) +171 vs. Yankees (Sabathia) - WON +1.710
    Kansas City/Yankees - Under 9 +105 - WON +1.050
    Cleveland (Clevinger) +152 at Houston (Morton) - LOST -1
    Colorado (Freeland) at San Francisco (Holland) - Under 8.5 -120 - WON +0.833

    Total 5/18: 3-1, +2.593 units

    GRAND TOTAL: 52-42-2, +12.589 units

    Overs: 2-3
    Spread (-1.5): 2-1
    Unders: 31-21-2
    Sides: 17-17 (winning record in units)
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  20. #120
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Jul 2011
    Posts
    4,757
    Excellent job, Dan. It's very difficult to beat a "window" sport. You're being selective, but firing at different kinds of plays. Very impressive.

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