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Thread: Dan Druff's MLB picks 2018

  1. #61
    Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    Brutal to lose that o7.5 given that it was 2-1 after 1 inning.

    Then lost the moneyline by 1 run.

    Ugh.
    And that winning run for the Cubs was on an error with two outs . . .

  2. #62
    Brutal 1-4 day yesterday.

    None of these losses were blowouts, either.

    Milwaukee lost 3-2. The same game had 3 runs in the first and couldn't cover Over 7.5. The Atlanta pick was up 3-0, then tied 3-3 for a long time, before finally falling apart at the end. The Texas under got off to a horrendous start, but ended up only losing by 1 run.

    Only that Boston under managed to cover, though barely.

    I'm coming back with Milwaukee today:

    Milwaukee (Guerra) +155 at Cubs (Quintana)

    Guerra has been a pleasant surprise in 2018. He was a sleeper in 2016, was awful in 2017, and has pitched well in 2 starts this year.

    Quintana has a 7.79 ERA after a terrible April, which not uncommon for him. April is the worst month of his career. Yes, it's still barely April, but it's clear once again that he hasn't warmed up yet.

    Game starts 11:20am PDT
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  3. #63
    Lost the above.

    I've been running bad in baseball lately, resulting in breaks taken on both Thursday and Saturday.

    I'm 1-5 in my last 6 picks.

    I'll post the full record shortly.

    I'm back with two against-the-public unders, and one with-the-public side:

    Kansas City (Hammel) at Boston (E. Rodriguez) - Under 8.5
    Tampa (Faria) at Detroit (Zimmerman) - Under 8.5
    at Minnesota (Lynn) -114 vs. Toronto (Aaron Sanchez)
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  4. #64
    Looks like 1-2 is likely.

    San Diego (Lauer) +149 at San Francisco (Samardzija)

    Lauer got BOMBED in his ML debut.... but it was at Coors Field.

    He actually has good minor league numbers, and is considered to have decent upside.

    Samardzija sucks. He's had one good start, one bad start, but overall is pretty much crap.

    SF is also a little banged up and has a career reserve and minor leaguer in the 7-8 spots tonight.

    Game starts at 7:15 PDT.
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  5. #65
    Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    Looks like 1-2 is likely.

    San Diego (Lauer) +149 at San Francisco (Samardzija)

    Lauer got BOMBED in his ML debut.... but it was at Coors Field.

    He actually has good minor league numbers, and is considered to have decent upside.

    Samardzija sucks. He's had one good start, one bad start, but overall is pretty much crap.

    SF is also a little banged up and has a career reserve and minor leaguer in the 7-8 spots tonight.

    Game starts at 7:15 PDT.
    i sit this one out. SD owns SF over the last 3 years. However SF has found wiining ways..winning 6 out of their last 8. The have won the last 3 series agasint angels, nationals, and dodgers.

  6. #66
    but on the bright side for you.....SF just got finished playing 4 games in less than 48 hours (fri-sunday) and their bullpen is well used up.

  7. #67
    Tonight:

    at Washington -1.5 (Scherzer) -110 vs. Pittsburgh (Kuhl)
    Atlanta (Soroka) +167 at Mets (Syndergaard)
    Dodgers (Kershaw) at Arizona (Koch) - Under 7.5
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  8. #68
    More:

    Toronto (M. Estrada) at Minnesota (Gibson) - Under 9 -120
    Philadelphia (Eflin) at Miami (Jarlin Garcia) - Under 8.5 +100
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  9. #69
    Originally Posted by LarryS View Post
    but on the bright side for you.....SF just got finished playing 4 games in less than 48 hours (fri-sunday) and their bullpen is well used up.
    Came 1 out away from hitting this one.

    SD 5, SF 3 with 2 outs in the bottom of the 9th and a man on 1st.

    End up losing 6-3 on a walkoff single with the bases loaded.

    Hand was out of gas and the manager didn't take him out, as managers often refuse to do with their closers.
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  10. #70
    Everything held except Tor/Min under. That one was 4-3 in the 8th, and 4-4 going into the 9th, but 3 runs came in the top half of the 9th, and I lost. Can't ever hit those.

    But still a good day, going 4-1 including that +167 Braves hit.

    The Braves win snapped an ugly losing streak of 5 games in a row where I had sides.

    I'm now 2-0 backing Scherzer -1.5.

    Still batting .000 on overs.

    Here's an update on my record, which briefly fell into the red yesterday before popping back above even today:

    SEASON TOTAL THRU 4/24: 23-18, +5.451

    4/25:
    Washington (Scherzer) -1.5 +100 at San Francisco (Samardijza) - WON +1
    Detroit (Boyd) at Pittsburgh (Kuhl) - Under 8 -115 - LOST -1
    TOTAL: 1-1, 0 units

    4/27:
    Milwaukee (Suter) +154 at Cubs (Darvish) - LOST -1
    Milwaukee/Cubs OVER 7.5 +104 - LOST -1
    Tampa Bay (Snell) at Boston (Pomeranz) - Under 8.5 -115 - WON +0.870
    Texas (Minor) at Toronto (Stroman) - Under 9 -115 - LOST -1
    Braves (Teheran) +153 at Phillies (Nola) - LOST -1
    TOTAL: 1-4, -3.130 units

    4/28:
    Milwaukee (Guerra) +155 at Cubs (Quintana) - LOST -1
    TOTAL: 0-1, -1 units

    4/30:
    Kansas City (Hammel) at Boston (E. Rodriguez) - Under 8.5 -110 - LOST -1
    Tampa (Faria) at Detroit (Zimmerman) - Under 8.5 -110 - WON +0.909
    at Minnesota (Lynn) -114 vs. Toronto (Aaron Sanchez) - LOST -1
    San Diego (Lauer) +149 at San Francisco (Samardzija) - LOST -1
    TOTAL: 1-3, -2.091 units

    5/1:
    at Washington -1.5 (Scherzer) -110 vs. Pittsburgh (Kuhl) - WON +0.909
    Atlanta (Soroka) +167 at Mets (Syndergaard) - WON +1.670
    Dodgers (Kershaw) at Arizona (Koch) - Under 7.5 -115 - WON +0.870
    Toronto (M. Estrada) at Minnesota (Gibson) - Under 9 -120 - LOST -1
    Philadelphia (Eflin) at Miami (Jarlin Garcia) - Under 8.5 +100 - WON +1
    TOTAL: 4-1, +3.449 units

    TOTAL 4/25-5/1:
    7-10, -2.772 units

    SEASON TOTAL THRU 5/1:
    30-28, +2.679 units

    Overs: 0-3
    Spread (-1.5): 2-0
    Unders: 19-13-2
    Sides: 9-12
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  11. #71
    Good day, Druff. Finally I’m awake early enough and I was smart enough to check this thread. Glad I did.

    I had some other bets too that I had already put in, that were similar to some of yours.

    I was certain my Jets -1.5 bet was doomed when they were losing something like 0-3 or 0-4, but nope, they turnt it around for the win. !

  12. #72
    Dare I do another double Cubs bet involving F Yu?

    Why not...

    Starting 11:20am PDT

    Colorado (T. Anderson) +199 at Cubs (Darvish)
    Colorado/Cubs - Under 10.5 -115

    Two notes:

    Anderson has had weird chest pain recently, and it interrupted his last start. However, he thinks it won't be a big deal, and I believe it won't show up again today.

    Wind is blowing out of Wrigley at about 11mph, hence the high total. So beware betting this if you are afraid of wind-influenced totals at Wrigley.
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  13. #73
    Wind actually up to 20 now. Wrigley is weird because it is perceived as being a hitter's park because of its dimensions, but early in the year the cold wind blows in and it is difficult to hit.

    The weather changed this week--we're in the 80's with the wind blowing out. Now the question is will the cubs ever start hitting. Rizzo's home run last night was a pop up to short.

    Cub fans are all giddy about Yu and Quintana. I think they are both losers with not enough heart.

  14. #74
    Agree regarding Yu and Quintana.

    Easily hit the Colorado +199. Nolan Arenado killed my over in the 8th. Still ahead +0.99.

    Won't fault you if you don't trust one of my over picks... but here is one I've been looking at for awhile, and I'm going to fire on it. Starting at 4:05pm PDT

    Pittsburgh (Nova) at Washington (Strasburg) - Over 8 +102
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  15. #75
    Washington over hit easily.

    So let's take our 2.01 units up for the day and put them both at risk with this two-pronged play:

    Oakland (Brett Anderson) +159 at Seattle (Paxton)
    Oakland/Seattle under 8 -110

    Believe it or not, Anderson has looked excellent in his AAA starts, striking out 25 in 19 innings, walking 2, and allowing 2 ER total.
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  16. #76
    3-2 Oakland...

    With 2 out in the 9th and men on 1st and 2nd, Dee Gordon hit a grounder and the play at 1st was super close. He was called out to end the game....

    ...but...

    Upon review, it was overturned (mistake, imo), and the game was back alive, with bases loaded.

    Thankfully Segura grounded out to end it, and that was that.

    Won both picks, to cap off my second consecutive strong day.

    Today:
    Colorado (T. Anderson) +199 at Cubs (Darvish) - WON +1.99
    Colorado/Cubs - Under 10.5 -115 - LOST -1
    Pittsburgh (Nova) at Washington (Strasburg) - Over 8 +102 - WON +1.020
    Oakland (Brett Anderson) +159 at Seattle (Paxton) - WON +1.590
    Oakland/Seattle under 8 -110 - WON +0.909

    TOTAL TODAY: 4-1, +4.509

    GRAND TOTAL: 34-29-2, +7.188 units

    Overs: 1-3
    Spread (-1.5): 2-0
    Unders: 20-14-2
    Sides: 11-12

    I'm actually up in 3 of the 4 categories (all but overs) because I had a number of underdogs with the sides, so my 11-12 record is actually a winner.

    The last two days have been great, going 8-2 and +7.958. They have almost completely erased the funk I've been in for the past 10 days or so.

    Hope you got in on some of these.
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  17. #77
    Hi Dan:

    I had been distracted and the only action yesterday I was on was your Over at Pittsburgh v Washington. I am glad I was on the only Over you have cashed on. That game was not even close as I was in the money by the middle of the game.

    Thanks for your work and sharing.

    FAB

  18. #78
    Not much I like today.

    Still considering later games.

    One game I do like may not happen, or may not happen with the pitchers I want.

    *** GAME 2 OF DOUBLEHEADER ***
    ** MAKE SURE THESE TWO PITCHERS ARE GOING -- BET "LISTED", NOT ACTION **
    Toronto (Biagini) at Cleveland (Plutko) - Under 10 -105

    Plutko is yet another "rookie pitcher who is hot in the minors right now" story. Ignore his only 2 Major League starts (back in 2016) where he pitched poorly.

    There is a chance this game won't happen, or that they will end up swapping pitchers around.

    Currently on rain delay for game 1.
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  19. #79
    Cleveland hung a big 7 in the 5th and that was all she wrote yesterday.

    Here's what I got so far on the afternoon games:

    Miami (W. Chen) at Cincinnati (Romano) - Under 9 -115

    San Francisco (Stratton) at Atlanta (Foltynewicz) - Under 9 -105


    Notes:
    Miami pick is very anti-public

    SF pick is semi-public (that is, public moderately favors my pick)

    Atlanta has mashed the ball lately. Acuna, Albies, Markakis, Freeman have been super hot. And Stratton got bombed last time out. So keep all that in mind before tailing me on that one.


    I know it might be hard to bring yourself to bet an under on two offensive juggernauts like the Reds and Marlins, but try to force yourself.
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  20. #80
    Considered the under on the Chicago/St. Louis game but decided I'll pass.

    I'm looking at one more: Under on the Angels. That one starts after 7pm PDT, so I'll post it closer to game time if I like it.

    Interesting one in Arizona -- you can get like +180 right now on the Dbacks AT HOME!

    That's very tempting, even though they're up against Houston and Gerrit Cole, and even though they're sending out washed up Kris Medlen, who hasn't pitched in the Majors since 2016, was horrible that year, and didn't look too good in the minors this year. Very tough decision on that one. Can you really pass on a +180 on a 21-11 team at home, just because their starting pitcher is awful?

    I'm considering that too.
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

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