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Thread: Dan Druff's MLB picks 2018

  1. #161
    I'd love to bet Rockies under when in Colorado; they always set the total high: today is 10.5

    but I can't do it

    it's just too freaky how many runs are scored there

    last 5 games the actual runs scored were: 19, 11,15, 11 and 10

    can't bet the over either. it's just too weird
    please don't feed the trolls

  2. #162
    First day since I got to the WSOP that I have no event to play.

    Here's a pick:

    **GAME 2** at Detroit (Fiers) +176 vs. Yankees (German)

    Notes:

    Detroit has played better recently. German has allowed 6 ER in two of his last 4 starts.
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  3. #163
    Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    First day since I got to the WSOP that I have no event to play.

    Here's a pick:

    **GAME 2** at Detroit (Fiers) +176 vs. Yankees (German)

    Notes:

    Detroit has played better recently. German has allowed 6 ER in two of his last 4 starts.

    Well, we made it to the ninth with a lead, so no matter the outcome, nice selection. This was a good value as a dog versus a non-premium pitcher

  4. #164
    Good win. I liked this pick a lot. Should have bet more on it, because it was one of my favorite in awhile. +176 for a semi-hot Detroit team at home, with a pitcher who has averaged fewer than 3 ER in his past 5 starts, against a guy who has been bombed 2 of his past 4 times out.

    I'll take that all day.
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  5. #165
    Lost 6 in a row, but then hit the nice +176 after a short break.

    Record keeping:

    Total through 5/25: 61-44-2, +19.464 units

    5/26:
    White Sox (H. Santiago) +103 at Detroit (F. Liriano) - WON +1.030
    San Diego (Lyles) at Dodgers (Wood) - Under 7 -105 - LOST -1
    TOTAL 5/26: 1-1, +0.030

    5/27:
    St. Louis (Weaver) +102 at Milwaukee (Suter) - LOST -1
    TOTAL 5/27: 0-1, -1.000

    5/28:
    Mets (Conlon) at Atlanta (McCarthy) - Under 9 -108 - LOST -1
    TOTAL 5/28: 0-1, -1.000

    5/29:
    Washington (Hellickson) at Baltimore (Bundy) - Over 9 -120 - LOST -1
    at Baltimore -108 (Bundy) vs. Washington (Hellickson) - LOST -1
    TOTAL 5/29: 0-2, -2.000

    5/30:
    Houston (Keuchel) +180 at Yankees (Severino) - LOST -1
    TOTAL: 5/30: 0-1, -1.000

    6/4:
    **GAME 2** at Detroit (Fiers) +176 vs. Yankees (German) - WON +1.760
    TOTAL 6/4: 1-0, +1.760

    TOTAL 5/26-6/4:
    2-6, -3.210 units

    GRAND TOTAL: 63-50-2, +16.254 units

    Overs: 2-4
    Spread (-1.5): 2-1
    Unders: 36-24-2
    Moneyline: 23-21 (a good deal ahead in units due to mostly underdogs)
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  6. #166
    Pick on today's early game:

    White Sox (Rey. Lopez) +151 at Minnesota (F. Romero)

    Notes: Both pitchers got bombed last time out, but Lopez was doing well for several starts prior to that outing.
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  7. #167
    Ugh, up 2-0 in bottom of 8th with 2 outs and lose.

    Well let's try to bounce back from that screw job.

    Kansas City (Keller) at Angels (Heaney) - under 8 -110
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  8. #168
    That could have been a sweep with a nice big underdog. That +150 biting the dust hurt. But there was no doubt with the Under. Angels run production has been extraordinary, given all of their offensive stats. It may be hard to take Overs with them for awhile, as the value does seem to lie with their Unders. If you take an Over with them, you're usually paying a half-run premium.

  9. #169
    Here's one starting in about 30 min:

    Detroit (Boyd) at Boston (Beeks) - Under 10 -115

    Notes: Beeks has been absolutely dominating the minors, with almost 13 K per 9 innings, over 10 starts. Boyd has been surprisingly good for the Tigers this year.
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  10. #170
    Damn I thought it was all over in the first inning there. Whew.

  11. #171
    Talk about one I didn't deserve.

    I thought Beeks would shut the Detroit bats down. Nope. He gave up 5 in the top of the 1st, and Boston came back with 1 of their own. Live betting had the game lined at 15.5 at that point.

    The final? 7-2.

    I'll take it.
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  12. #172
    Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    Talk about one I didn't deserve.

    I thought Beeks would shut the Detroit bats down. Nope. He gave up 5 in the top of the 1st, and Boston came back with 1 of their own. Live betting had the game lined at 15.5 at that point.

    The final? 7-2.

    I'll take it.
    Bottom of the eighth was a sweatbox, but all's well that ends well.

  13. #173
    6/5:
    White Sox (Rey. Lopez) +151 at Minnesota (F. Romero) - LOST -1
    Kansas City (Keller) at Angels (Heaney) - under 8 -110 - WON +0.909
    6/5 total: 1-1, -0.091 units

    6/7:
    Detroit (Boyd) at Boston (Beeks) - Under 10 -115 - WON +0.870
    6/7 total: 1-0, +0.870 units

    6/5-6/7 total: 2-1, +0.779 units

    Grand total: 65-51-2, +17.033 units

    Overs: 2-4
    Spread (-1.5): 2-1
    Unders: 38-24-2
    Moneyline: 23-22 (a good deal ahead in units due to mostly underdogs)
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  14. #174
    at NY Mets (Degrom) -106 vs. NY Yankees (Tanaka)

    Notes: Degrom has a 1.49 ERA. He has gone 7 straight starts allowing 1 ER or fewer, pitching 7+ innings in 6 of them. Tanaka has a 4.79 ERA and has given up 3+ ER in 5 of his last 6 starts.
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  15. #175
    Mets blew a lead yesterday.

    Let's back them again.

    at Mets (Matz) +144 vs Yankees (German)
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  16. #176
    Of course, the Mets blow leads in both games and lose, including 3-0 on Saturday.

    Then I give up on them and they win a +200 on Sunday. Sigh.

    One pick today. Taking a break from the WSOP til Saturday, so I should have a bit more time to make picks this week.

    at Milwaukee (Junior Guerra) +107 vs. Cubs (Quintana)
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  17. #177
    This'll be interesting. This is one of those long-term/short-term schizoid games. If you had put a number on this pre-season, Cubs would be much more heavily favored. But based on what's happened thus far and the two pitchers, Milwaukee should be favored.

  18. #178
    Three comeback losses in a row.

    Ugh.

    Starts very soon:

    Toronto (Jaime Garcia) at Tampa Bay (Stanek) - Under 8 -105

    NOTES: This will be a "bullpen game" for Tampa. Stanek will likely not pitch more than 2 innings.
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  19. #179
    My Toronto under won, as did two unders I considered but didn't post (Washington and Cubs). I've considered 7 unders over the past few days, and all won easily. Unfortunately, I only picked that Toronto one. Guess it's time to focus more on unders.

    Record keeping:

    6/8:
    at NY Mets (Degrom) -106 vs. NY Yankees (Tanaka) - LOST -1
    6/9:
    at Mets (Matz) +144 vs Yankees (German) - LOST -1
    6/11:
    at Milwaukee (Junior Guerra) +107 vs. Cubs (Quintana) - LOST -1
    6/12:
    Toronto (Jaime Garcia) at Tampa Bay (Stanek) - Under 8 -105 - WON +0.952

    TOTAL 6/8-6/12:
    1-3, -2.048 units

    Grand total: 66-54-2, +14.985 units

    Overs: 2-4
    Spread (-1.5): 2-1
    Unders: 39-24-2
    Moneyline: 23-25 (ahead in units due to mostly underdogs)
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  20. #180
    Two home dogs today.

    at Kansas City (Hammel) +108 vs. Cincinnati (Mahle)
    at Detroit (Boyd) +133 vs. Minnesota (Berrios)

    NOTES: Berrios went 9 innings in his last start. Mahle has never lasted longer than 6 1/3 innings, and has only gone 5 in his past 3 starts.
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

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