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Thread: The Thread Without Argentino

  1. #1
    Well, Argentino was supposed to be limited to a couple of threads. As I sit here, the previous seven threads all have Argentino's brilliance on display for all to read. So is this another math issue for Argentino? Or does Dan believe Argentino's math should be in each and every thread?

    Now of course I purposefully put Argentino's name in the title of this thread so he can claim he should be posting in this one because he's mentioned.

    Anyway, since Argentino has infiltrated virtually every thread, I thought it might be worthwhile to start a thread devoted to him not being able to post in it. It's kind of like the opposite of what kewlJ proposed. Rather than have threads that seek to contain all of the disadvantage play, maybe start one thread that's actually about advantage play.

    Will anyone second the motion?

    Note: Not You, Argentino.

  2. #2
    Originally Posted by redietz View Post
    Rather than have threads that seek to contain all of the disadvantage play, maybe start one thread that's actually about advantage play.
    Alan has hit three $100K royals since I have been a member of this forum.

    I understand that Alan wants it publicly known that he has never had a winning year in the casinos.

    But Alan has admitted to losing his VP winnings at the craps tables.

    Alan, have you ever had a winning year at video poker, and are you ahead lifetime at video poker?

  3. #3
    One year doesn't matter. Only lifetime results do.

  4. #4
    Originally Posted by jbjb View Post
    One year doesn't matter. Only lifetime results do.
    That's why I asked if he was ahead lifetime at VP.

    His potential answer must terrify you.

  5. #5
    So if Mr. Mendelson plays negative expectation video poker and is ahead lifetime after so many hands, that should terrify some people? Is that the logic here? I can see that as unsettling and a disconfirmation of advantage play principles, depending on his number of hands.

    On the other hand, I have never hit a royal more than $1200, and I'm ahead about $5100 lifetime. Should that be a confirmation of advantage play principles? I've only played about half a million hands lifetime, so I'm not sure that's enough hands. I count free play winnings directly generated from the video poker towards the total. I still have a couple hundred in free play stashed, so they are not counted in the total.

  6. #6
    Originally Posted by redietz View Post
    I can see that as unsettling and a disconfirmation of advantage play principles, depending on his number of hands.
    I agree.

  7. #7
    Originally Posted by redietz View Post
    So if Mr. Mendelson plays negative expectation video poker and is ahead lifetime after so many hands, that should terrify some people? Is that the logic here? I can see that as unsettling and a disconfirmation of advantage play principles, depending on his number of hands.

    On the other hand, I have never hit a royal more than $1200, and I'm ahead about $5100 lifetime. Should that be a confirmation of advantage play principles? I've only played about half a million hands lifetime, so I'm not sure that's enough hands. I count free play winnings directly generated from the video poker towards the total. I still have a couple hundred in free play stashed, so they are not counted in the total.
    It shouldn't terrify anyone.

    Being ahead or behind at any time has nothing to do with any sort of advantage play.

  8. #8
    Originally Posted by jbjb View Post
    Being ahead or behind at any time has nothing to do with any sort of advantage play.
    Can a player reach the longterm?...whereby it would be mathematically impossible for him to be ahead playing negative expectation VP?

  9. #9
    And redietz wonders why he is known for his weird posts.....

    I understand the level of hurt I pounded you with red by exposing you and your sleazy "partners" for what they really do. But you are soooo corny when you try to get back.

  10. #10
    See, the problem with the post above is that, like many by its author, it is a complete non sequitur having nothing to do with the previous posts. So now I'm supposed to respond to the usual lying personal attack by asking, "Pray tell, what is it I do that is sleazy? Pray tell, what is it you have exposed about me?" Obviously if the gentleman posting above had any evidence of sleaze or things exposed, it would be here for all to see.

    And then we are off into the rabbit hole. Coach had actually asked a reasonable question, although "impossible" is a tricky word. One day, the sun will not come up, so that is not impossible. But for a pragmatist, I think a one in a billion chance is a fair definition of impossible.

    The gentleman had an opportunity to stay out of one blessed thread, and he chose to not take it. And he compounded that with a personal attack sans evidence.

  11. #11
    Red, you bring up the fact that I've exposed you for being a forum troll for your business, in almost every post you make. Clearly, you can't shake the upset stomach over it.

    And I love every minute of watching you squirm for being so sleazy.

  12. #12
    Originally Posted by redietz View Post
    Coach had actually asked a reasonable question, although "impossible" is a tricky word.
    I was referencing a self-proclaimed AP's assertion....

    Originally Posted by kewlJ View Post
    NO betting system, progressive or otherwise can turn a negative expectation game into a winning game long-term. It is simply mathematically impossible
    The question is...can a player reach the long-term?

  13. #13
    Originally Posted by Rob.Singer View Post
    Red, you bring up the fact that I've exposed you for being a forum troll for your business, in almost every post you make. Clearly, you can't shake the upset stomach over it.

    And I love every minute of watching you squirm for being so sleazy.
    Well, I don't recall recruiting people for free lessons in Reno or Tahoe, so I must be slipping vis-à-vis trolling for customers. I'll work on that, but I am a bit rusty, never having done it. Perhaps I could find somebody to give me lessons about how to recruit people for "free lessons."

    Any volunteers? I only know one bloke on this board who has any experience.

  14. #14
    Originally Posted by coach belly View Post
    Originally Posted by redietz View Post
    Coach had actually asked a reasonable question, although "impossible" is a tricky word.
    I was referencing a self-proclaimed AP's assertion....

    Originally Posted by kewlJ View Post
    NO betting system, progressive or otherwise can turn a negative expectation game into a winning game long-term. It is simply mathematically impossible
    No, that's a different context, coach. KewlJ is talking about turning a negative game into a positive game and the mechanics of that. He's not talking about a billion-hand run. Two completely different things. If you want math theorems explained, you'll have to consult someone who teaches probability at a university level. I mean, if you really want to know, a friggin' message board isn't the place to go. If you don't want to know, then don't consult a mathematician. Your choice.

  15. #15
    Originally Posted by redietz View Post
    No, that's a different context, coach. KewlJ is talking about turning a negative game into a positive game and the mechanics of that. .
    No...he said turning a negative game into a winning game.

    He asserts that winning at a negative game in the long-term is impossible, no matter what the betting system.

    The math theorists may insist that the long-term expectation can never be positive,
    but does that matter if no player can ever reach the long-term?

  16. #16
    Originally Posted by coach belly View Post
    Originally Posted by redietz View Post
    No, that's a different context, coach. KewlJ is talking about turning a negative game into a positive game and the mechanics of that. .
    No...he said turning a negative game into a winning game.

    He asserts that winning at a negative game in the long-term is impossible, no matter what the betting system.
    Coach, after years of this, why don't you simply go to the closest university and spend two hours asking someone who teaches probability? It's quick, elegant, and saves you time. Plus you can have some confidence in the answer. KewlJ doesn't have a math degree. I certainly do not. Mr. Mendelson and Argentino do not. Just go to an expert and get your questions answered.

    If the university professor has anything to say either way, and you want to share, please do so. Math professionals are not that scary. If you really want good answers, go check them out. Most will be happy to help.

  17. #17
    Originally Posted by redietz View Post
    Coach, after years of this, why don't you simply go to the closest university and spend two hours asking someone who teaches probability
    I'm interested to know if a player can win in the long-term at negative expectation VP.

    My expectation is that university professors will explain that it is possible.

  18. #18
    You know, this really comes down to too many attempted "gotcha" moments and language. But I pay attention to language, so my take is this:

    1) Can "a" player win in the long term at negative expectation vp? Probably, since a player has a limited lifespan and only so many hours to devote to video poker. The odds may be ten million to one or fifty million to one, but it would not be a 0.0000000000000000 probability. For all practical purposes, it is impossible, but for all practical purposes wasn't part of the question.

    2) Can a system win in the long term playing negative expectation video poker -- no.

    But I have no math degree, so I defer to math professionals. I don't really discern much difference between a one in ten million chance and none, but I gamble in a real world, so I try to not get into angels-on-the-head-of-a-pin debates that have no bearing on me. Other folks may enjoy the idea or "having a one-in-50,000,000 chance" as opposed to "no chance at all." I don't.

    Why would anyone play a game wherein, in your lifetime, you have a one in fifty million chance of winning? What sense does that make? What difference should it make vis-à-vis a 0.0 chance? You do one but not the other? You advocate one but not the other?

    Just ask the math professionals.

  19. #19
    Originally Posted by redietz View Post
    Can "a" player win in the long term at negative expectation vp? Probably
    So your answer is "yes"...a player can win in the long term at negative expectation VP.

    Is that correct...that your answer is yes?

  20. #20
    Originally Posted by coach belly View Post
    Originally Posted by redietz View Post
    Can "a" player win in the long term at negative expectation vp? Probably
    So your answer is "yes"...a player can win in the long term at negative expectation VP.

    Is that correct...that your answer is yes?
    You're trying too hard, coach. Consult a math professional.

    Your question is exactly the same as, "Can a burst of solar radiation cause a mutation in me that allows me to grow seventy feet tall and read minds?" The answer is yes. "Can a meatball fall from an Italian restaurant patio in Venice, be carried by a small dog to the docks, and make it to the United States, where it poisons the governor of New York's cat?" The answer, again, is yes. These questions all have the same real world relevance.

    I think, in fact, that I now have an answer to the question, "Can a player win long term playing negative expectation video poker?" From here on, I will answer ,"You have as much chance winning at negative expectation video poker lifetime as I do of being struck by solar radiation and mutating into one of the Fantastic Four."

    I think this answer is statistically sound and, if nothing else, will drive folks to consult their local math professionals.
    Last edited by redietz; 04-14-2018 at 09:00 PM.

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