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Thread: kentucky derby

  1. #41
    Originally Posted by regnis View Post
    and the kid sitting next to me put $50 to show on the 20 for no reason and he didn't even know if it mattered if his horse was put up on the DQ. He didn't know that show paid the same whether he finished first, second, or third.
    quite a few of the once in a blue moon patrons at these huge events don't understand place and show and others just bet one horse to win, one to place and one to show
    it can cause favorites to pay more than they should in the place and show pool - it's not a boxcar thing but can create an edge

    American Pharoah went off at 4/5 in the Preakness and paid almost as much to place - $3.40 - in an 8 horse field. - $2.80 to show
    Justify went off at 2/5 in the Preakness and paid the same to place as to win - and he paid $2.60 to show also in an 8 horse field - show got you 75% of the profit of the win bet

    they came with shots and that helped but still

    it happens fairly often on these huge racing days
    Last edited by Half Smoke; 05-19-2019 at 09:10 AM.
    Of course what I'm saying is true. I saw it ON THE INTERNET.

  2. #42
    Originally Posted by maxx71 View Post
    Keystone, I've been playing derby for 3 years, but once I've got a trauma on the championship - I've got retired from it, and started to make some home exercises day to day. It's pretty easy because I mean inversions tables (like these: https://cozyhousetoday.com/best-iron...tables-reviews), when you can stretch your muscles to relieve the pain, and also to strengthen them up.
    WTF are you talking about?

  3. #43
    Makes perfect sense to me----if I was high, drunk, and had alzheimers.

  4. #44
    Originally Posted by regnis View Post
    Makes perfect sense to me----if I was high, drunk, and had alzheimers.
    How did you end up doing Regnis?

  5. #45
    I was doing good early. Then went cold in the middle. Had no bet in the Preakness as I didn't like the race at all. Since it was part of all the multi race wagers I had to use all in the Preakness and was thin elsewhere. I honestly would have never bet the winner other than as part of the all.

    How about you?

  6. #46
    Originally Posted by regnis View Post
    I was doing good early. Then went cold in the middle. Had no bet in the Preakness as I didn't like the race at all. Since it was part of all the multi race wagers I had to use all in the Preakness and was thin elsewhere. I honestly would have never bet the winner other than as part of the all.

    How about you?
    Struck out on all my horizontal plays but did hit the Preakness trifecta...I wheeled War of Will and Anothertwistafate to all for a dollar..cost me $264 and got back $4700...lost a good size win wager on Anothertwistafate and some other combos...all in all it was a good day due to that trifecta, otherwise I thought it was a pretty crappy card for the 2 days wager wise....Belmont in a few weeks should be a great betting card

  7. #47
    Nice trifecta. As I said, I really didn't like War of Will. Maybe I put too much into how much ground he lost after the "foul" in the Derby.

    Belmont is always a better day for gambling, and of course a better venue. Hopefully either no rain or a ton of rain. I don't like the in between.

  8. #48
    Originally Posted by regnis View Post
    Nice trifecta. As I said, I really didn't like War of Will. Maybe I put too much into how much ground he lost after the "foul" in the Derby.

    Belmont is always a better day for gambling, and of course a better venue. Hopefully either no rain or a ton of rain. I don't like the in between.
    Thanks...I really wasn`t thrilled about W.O.W. either. I just threw him in because of the huge inside bias that day...sometimes it works out

  9. #49
    Nice job, Keystone. Nobody I knew made much of anything on either the Derby or Preakness. To the girlfriend's credit (she had five of the last six Derby winners), she bet very little. Said it was the most difficult couple of Triple Crown races she'd seen in years and years. I had one friend swear off race betting after the Derby result -- we'll see about that.

    Anyway -- congrats again, Keystone. Tough races to figure, even with the inside bias.

  10. #50
    Originally Posted by redietz View Post
    Nice job, Keystone. Nobody I knew made much of anything on either the Derby or Preakness. To the girlfriend's credit (she had five of the last six Derby winners), she bet very little. Said it was the most difficult couple of Triple Crown races she'd seen in years and years. I had one friend swear off race betting after the Derby result -- we'll see about that.

    Anyway -- congrats again, Keystone. Tough races to figure, even with the inside bias.
    Thx...Iím more of a P4,5 and 6 player but itís nice to hit a tri or super once in a while

  11. #51
    Don't mention the Pick 6 to me. I'm addicted to the Gulfstream Pick 6. I have been chasing it for weeks. Today I had a good consolation but it's only the second good one I've had in about 3-4 weeks. Thought it might pay a little more today but I'll take it.

    Do you play it?

  12. #52
    Originally Posted by regnis View Post
    Don't mention the Pick 6 to me. I'm addicted to the Gulfstream Pick 6. I have been chasing it for weeks. Today I had a good consolation but it's only the second good one I've had in about 3-4 weeks. Thought it might pay a little more today but I'll take it.

    Do you play it?
    Nice hit there, well done....I usually only play Gulf during the Champions meet. Don`t have much luck there otherwise...I usually focus mainly on NYRA, Keeneland, Kentucky Downs and SoCal....Don`t play the smaller circuits except maybe on a blue moon.Too many cheap rat horses and cheating rat trainers

  13. #53
    Originally Posted by Keystone View Post
    Originally Posted by regnis View Post
    Don't mention the Pick 6 to me. I'm addicted to the Gulfstream Pick 6. I have been chasing it for weeks. Today I had a good consolation but it's only the second good one I've had in about 3-4 weeks. Thought it might pay a little more today but I'll take it.

    Do you play it?
    Nice hit there, well done....I usually only play Gulf during the Champions meet. Don`t have much luck there otherwise...I usually focus mainly on NYRA, Keeneland, Kentucky Downs and SoCal....Don`t play the smaller circuits except maybe on a blue moon.Too many cheap rat horses and cheating rat trainers

    Keystone, you're not referring to my old hangout, Penn National, are you? LOL. Some people say the PN trainers have more pharmaceuticals than Hunter Thompson stashed in the trunk of his car:

    "The trunk of the car looked like a mobile police narcotics lab. We had two bags of grass, seventy-five pellets of mescaline, five sheets of high-powered blotter acid, a salt shaker half full of cocaine, and a whole galaxy of multi-colored uppers, downers, screamers, laughers...and also a quart of tequila, a quart of rum, a case of Budweiser, a pint of ether, and two dozen amyls...Not that we needed all that for the trip, but once you get locked into a serious drug collection, the tendency is to push it as far as you can."

    Fear and Loathing in Las Vegas

  14. #54
    Considerably lower takeout at NYRA - also breakage to the dime instead of 20 cent. Woodbine does that too but not as good a deal on the takeout - unfortunately in NY they seem to crunch down the favorites more than elsewhere and I'm too often a chalk eater. better deal for non fave bettor



    http://www.brisnet.com/library/trktkout.pdf




    "not a man alive can pay the bills with 4/5"



    but then again



    "better a short price than a long face"
    Last edited by Half Smoke; 05-26-2019 at 11:43 AM.
    Of course what I'm saying is true. I saw it ON THE INTERNET.

  15. #55
    just realized - that chart I linked above is from 2009 - it's out of date -

    this is the most recent one I could find - from 2014 - and it's not complete



    http://gettingoutofthegate.com/takeout-rates-and-cd/
    Of course what I'm saying is true. I saw it ON THE INTERNET.

  16. #56
    Originally Posted by Half Smoke View Post
    just realized - that chart I linked above is from 2009 - it's out of date -

    this is the most recent one I could find - from 2014 - and it's not complete



    http://gettingoutofthegate.com/takeout-rates-and-cd/
    Good stuff Half Smoke...IMO, the P5 is the best wager out there. Very difficult to hit, but almost always pays nice....@redeitz- lol, no wasn`t necessarily talking about Penn National. I don`t think I`ve ever played a race from there. I used to dabble a bit at Parx,but stopped a few years back.... their takeout rate is highway robbery

  17. #57
    Okay, it took some searching, but I finally found a totally up to date complete chart of takeouts:



    http://www.horseplayersassociation.o...7Sortable.html


    you might also find this useful: in his classic book from the 60s Tom Ainslie identified a favorite/longshot bias
    I've heard a lot of people on the boards say it no longer exists
    but Barry Meadow just posted data from about 863,000 races in his new book "The Skeptical Handicapper"
    the bias definitely still exists and is quite strong
    with odds over 15/1 the ROI keeps getting worse and continues to much, much worse


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    Last edited by Half Smoke; 05-26-2019 at 02:37 PM.
    Of course what I'm saying is true. I saw it ON THE INTERNET.

  18. #58
    Originally Posted by Half Smoke View Post
    quite a few of the once in a blue moon patrons at these huge events don't understand place and show and others just bet one horse to win, one to place and one to show
    it can cause favorites to pay more than they should in the place and show pool - it's not a boxcar thing but can create an edg
    just went pretty heavy on McKinzie to show in the Met Mile - he was the fave and was in the money with the 2nd fave and the 4th fave
    show paid $2.70 - it's true odds were more like for McKinzie to pay $2.30 or $2.40 - McKinzie has been in lots of graded stakes races and has only been out of the money once in 10 times
    not the kind of payout to brag about but I believe I had a nice edge - I'm happy with that


    McKinzie is a horse with major league talent who almost never disappoints. today he got 2nd coming very strong at the finish at Mitole despite a terrible trip
    Last edited by Half Smoke; 06-08-2019 at 01:44 PM.
    Of course what I'm saying is true. I saw it ON THE INTERNET.

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