That doesn't sound unreasonable. There are still too many horses that don't belong in the race.

Over the years people ask me if I think a certain horse can get the mile and a quarter. I always give them the old standard response---

"they couldn't ship that horse a mile and a quarter".

Many years ago a great 6 furlong horse was entered in the derby that fits exactly with your premise. His name was Shecky Green. He was as good as any sprinter at the time and couldn't get a mile and a quarter on a van.

Maybe the point system has kept some of those out of the race.