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Thread: kentucky derby

  1. #21
    That doesn't sound unreasonable. There are still too many horses that don't belong in the race.

    Over the years people ask me if I think a certain horse can get the mile and a quarter. I always give them the old standard response---

    "they couldn't ship that horse a mile and a quarter".

    Many years ago a great 6 furlong horse was entered in the derby that fits exactly with your premise. His name was Shecky Green. He was as good as any sprinter at the time and couldn't get a mile and a quarter on a van.

    Maybe the point system has kept some of those out of the race.

  2. #22
    One of the best weeks of racing starts tomorrow--Royal Ascot. Besides all the festivities, the field size, and thus the payoffs, can be massive. While we suffer through 5 and 6 horse fields on a daily basis here, the 6 races tomorrow have entries of:
    1st--15
    2nd--24
    3rd--14
    4th--10
    5th--20
    6th--16

  3. #23
    Originally Posted by regnis View Post
    One of the best weeks of racing starts tomorrow--Royal Ascot. Besides all the festivities, the field size, and thus the payoffs, can be massive. While we suffer through 5 and 6 horse fields on a daily basis here, the 6 races tomorrow have entries of:
    1st--15
    2nd--24
    3rd--14
    4th--10
    5th--20
    6th--16
    Thanks for reminding me. I actually watched most of this last year -- for the first time.

  4. #24
    BUMP--

    Here we go again. Another Derby and again the threat of rain all week leading up to it. Seems like every year we have rain or the threat of rain for the Derby.

    The favorite is out with an entrapped epiglottis. Not a serious injury--he will be back. I did not like the horse anyway so I would have preferred that he run as a false favorite (in my opinion). I have not made a selection yet and won't until we have a better idea of weather and track conditions. But I have some thought of using Vekoma as a value play. But too soon to commit.

  5. #25
    I read through page one of this thread before realizing all the analysis was from last years race LOL

    What are your early thoughts this year regnis and how did last years Derby work out for you?

    thanks,

    RD

  6. #26
    RD-I will be happy to give you my thoughts after I get a better feel for conditions. Again, my early thought is that Vekoma offers a lot of value. But I really am still looking at about 8 horses at this time.

    Last year I keyed everything in the Derby off of Audible and just caught some small savers.

  7. #27
    Well-today (Friday) it started out very sloppy but completely dried up. But the track was lightening fast all day. They have eased back on the forecast and may avoid any more significant rain.
    At this time, I will be using 5,6,7,8 and 16 in some fashion and still with the intent to key Vekoma.

    Had a pretty good day today as Pick 3's, 4's and 5's were paying unusually high and there was a clear speed bias. Even with the bias, there was a lot of value to be had.

  8. #28
    Originally Posted by regnis View Post
    Well-today (Friday) it started out very sloppy but completely dried up. But the track was lightening fast all day. They have eased back on the forecast and may avoid any more significant rain.
    At this time, I will be using 5,6,7,8 and 16 in some fashion and still with the intent to key Vekoma.

    Had a pretty good day today as Pick 3's, 4's and 5's were paying unusually high and there was a clear speed bias. Even with the bias, there was a lot of value to be had.
    Thanks and good luck!

    I will toss in a couple of lottery tickets on superfectas for fun!

  9. #29
    Country House for the win!!!!!!!!

  10. #30
    Dry all day then rained for 40 minutes before the derby. Wound up keying the 7 with the 6,8,16, and 20 . Was thrilled when it came 7-20. Then the bad news. Turned a huge win into a medium loss. Hate to see a derby decided on a dq.

  11. #31
    Originally Posted by regnis View Post
    Dry all day then rained for 40 minutes before the derby. Wound up keying the 7 with the 6,8,16, and 20 . Was thrilled when it came 7-20. Then the bad news. Turned a huge win into a medium loss. Hate to see a derby decided on a dq.

    I don't think they had much in the way of options, given that the jockey has a history of riding like that. Most of the horse racing publicity the last few months has been negative, focusing on the injuries and deaths. It was the wrong Derby ride at the wrong time.

  12. #32
    I can guaranty no triple crown threat this year.

    If you looked at the faces of the jockey and owner during the inquiry you got a pretty good feeling he was going to be dq'ed

  13. #33
    The tipoff for me was when the interviewer rode up on his horse and said something to Max's jockey and got no response, then said, "I was kidding. You should be enjoying the moment," or something like that. The Max jockey clearly knew he was in deep shit. I know nothing, but I knew then that there was a problem. And the first words out of the trainer and jockey's mouths had to do with "He drifted out a little because of the crowd" or "He's a baby and he drifted" or stuff like that. They were making excuses instead of celebrating, so I thought there was an issue.

    Another angle on this, which my partner mentioned, is that American racing is trying to generate international interest in Japan and China, and the riding in Japan and China is ultra-clean. So you don't want the international bettors tuning in and seeing American jockeys weaving and banging. It turns off all of those international bettors.

    That was a good horse that was taken down, but the jockey should have maintained his composure during the race. He rode like it was a 10K claimer at Penn National.

  14. #34
    Originally Posted by regnis View Post
    Well-today (Friday) it started out very sloppy but completely dried up. But the track was lightening fast all day. They have eased back on the forecast and may avoid any more significant rain.
    At this time, I will be using 5,6,7,8 and 16 in some fashion and still with the intent to key Vekoma.

    Had a pretty good day today as Pick 3's, 4's and 5's were paying unusually high and there was a clear speed bias. Even with the bias, there was a lot of value to be had.
    Outstanding...you were gonna key Vekoma,and no mention of Country House, but after the race you would have nailed a Max Security/Country House exacta with Max Security as your key....really amazing to be able to change and adapt on the fly like that!

  15. #35
    Key--whether I win or lose you are compelled to give me shit. You do realize that i lost!!!.

    It was not a stretch to include the Country House. He is by one of the premier slop sires. Did I like the horse--NO. Did I adjust my picks when the track became sloppy--YES. All of the horses that I ultimately used were by top slop sires. That simple. And again--I LOST THE FUCKIN BET!!!!!

    And unless the track comes up sloppy in the Preakness or Belmont, I still won't use Country House.

  16. #36
    Originally Posted by redietz View Post
    The tipoff for me was when the interviewer rode up on his horse and said something to Max's jockey and got no response, then said, "I was kidding. You should be enjoying the moment," or something like that. The Max jockey clearly knew he was in deep shit. I know nothing, but I knew then that there was a problem. And the first words out of the trainer and jockey's mouths had to do with "He drifted out a little because of the crowd" or "He's a baby and he drifted" or stuff like that. They were making excuses instead of celebrating, so I thought there was an issue.

    Another angle on this, which my partner mentioned, is that American racing is trying to generate international interest in Japan and China, and the riding in Japan and China is ultra-clean. So you don't want the international bettors tuning in and seeing American jockeys weaving and banging. It turns off all of those international bettors.

    That was a good horse that was taken down, but the jockey should have maintained his composure during the race. He rode like it was a 10K claimer at Penn National.
    Won't ever attract international interest until they do something about the drugs. When I was consulting/managing some smaller stables it was a constant fight I had with trainers. Besides the fact that I am against the uncontrolled drug use, I was really opposed to the use of drugs for no legitimate medical reason both from an ethical standpoint and a cost analysis. Most owners have no idea of the costs attendant to drugs and vets for no medical reason. It's a part of a broken system. The trainers could never explain to me why certain horses had to be on meds when there was no medical issue to be found. It was clearly a belief that the meds were performance enhancing and they didn't care about need or the welfare of the horse.

  17. #37
    Originally Posted by regnis View Post
    Key--whether I win or lose you are compelled to give me shit. You do realize that i lost!!!.

    It was not a stretch to include the Country House. He is by one of the premier slop sires. Did I like the horse--NO. Did I adjust my picks when the track became sloppy--YES. All of the horses that I ultimately used were by top slop sires. That simple. And again--I LOST THE FUCKIN BET!!!!!

    And unless the track comes up sloppy in the Preakness or Belmont, I still won't use Country House.
    Not giving you shit at all, I actually like you....just trying to understand the rationale from switching to Max Security from Vekoma because the track came up sloppy....certainly Candy Ride is more of a proven slop sire than the relatively new sire New Years Day, no?....actually Country House did make some sense...one of the criteria I use in handicapping that particular race is to use horses that have 3 ascending speed figures in a row in their previous 3 races....Country House was one of 6 that fit that bill

  18. #38
    Fair enough. There were two reasons I liked Vekoma. First--the price. Second, I thought he could get position behind the speed and get a good trip.

    When the track came up sloppy, my theory is always that speed is good on fresh slop, and closers better on drying out-deeper slop. So now Vekoma was not a play as he was definitely not in the speed mix. Yes, otherwise I like Candy Ride in the slop--I think the 16 was a Candy Ride which is why I threw him in. But the price on Max was now good and there was no question he was the speed. The 20 was by Looking at Lucky so he was a late throw in on breeding. I also eliminated the 5 from my original selections. He was by City Zip who is a good slop sire but again, didn't have enough speed.

    All that analysis/knowledge and I still took a beating on the race, and the kid sitting next to me put $50 to show on the 20 for no reason and he didn't even know if it mattered if his horse was put up on the DQ. He didn't know that show paid the same whether he finished first, second, or third.

  19. #39
    Originally Posted by regnis View Post
    Originally Posted by redietz View Post
    The tipoff for me was when the interviewer rode up on his horse and said something to Max's jockey and got no response, then said, "I was kidding. You should be enjoying the moment," or something like that. The Max jockey clearly knew he was in deep shit. I know nothing, but I knew then that there was a problem. And the first words out of the trainer and jockey's mouths had to do with "He drifted out a little because of the crowd" or "He's a baby and he drifted" or stuff like that. They were making excuses instead of celebrating, so I thought there was an issue.

    Another angle on this, which my partner mentioned, is that American racing is trying to generate international interest in Japan and China, and the riding in Japan and China is ultra-clean. So you don't want the international bettors tuning in and seeing American jockeys weaving and banging. It turns off all of those international bettors.

    That was a good horse that was taken down, but the jockey should have maintained his composure during the race. He rode like it was a 10K claimer at Penn National.
    Won't ever attract international interest until they do something about the drugs. When I was consulting/managing some smaller stables it was a constant fight I had with trainers. Besides the fact that I am against the uncontrolled drug use, I was really opposed to the use of drugs for no legitimate medical reason both from an ethical standpoint and a cost analysis. Most owners have no idea of the costs attendant to drugs and vets for no medical reason. It's a part of a broken system. The trainers could never explain to me why certain horses had to be on meds when there was no medical issue to be found. It was clearly a belief that the meds were performance enhancing and they didn't care about need or the welfare of the horse.
    Internationally, drug use is much less than in the US, as regnis says. They want legitimate racing. In China, if your horse underperforms or if you choose to change distances, you have to explain to a panel why it happened or why you want to change distances. Anomalous performances or entry decisions must be explained and/or vetted.

  20. #40
    Originally Posted by regnis View Post
    and the kid sitting next to me put $50 to show on the 20 for no reason and he didn't even know if it mattered if his horse was put up on the DQ. He didn't know that show paid the same whether he finished first, second, or third.
    quite a few of the once in a blue moon patrons at these huge events don't understand place and show and others just bet one horse to win, one to place and one to show
    it can cause favorites to pay more than they should in the place and show pool - it's not a boxcar thing but can create an edge

    American Pharoah went off at 4/5 in the Preakness and paid almost as much to place - $3.40 - in an 8 horse field. - $2.80 to show
    Justify went off at 2/5 in the Preakness and paid the same to place as to win - and he paid $2.60 to show also in an 8 horse field - show got you 75% of the profit of the win bet

    they came with shots and that helped but still

    it happens fairly often on these huge racing days
    Last edited by Half Smoke; 05-19-2019 at 10:10 AM.
    please don't feed the trolls

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