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Thread: Retro Road Trip

  1. #1
    First of all, I want to thank mickey crimm for posting his "Road Pics." That thread motivated me to post this thread.

    I'll be taking on some new responsibilities as I prep for 2018 football. I realized that they are really old responsibilities in that I'll be doing more of the kinds of things that I did 20 to 40 years ago. This season promises to be quite different for various reasons, and it also promises to be quite long, as a new professional league (the AAF) plans to launch immediately after the 2019 Super Bowl.

    I have been doing this sports handicapping thing for a long, long time. What I hope to accomplish in this Retro Road Trip thread is to allow the observations of today to resonate with the experiences and memories of decades past. I'll do my best to place them side by side. For that, I'll need to resuscitate some old skills. I was a photographer for some small papers once upon a time, and I think I'll need that photographer's eye once again.

    For the next two months, I'll be zigzagging the country, meeting people and getting organized. Most, but not all, of the meetings will involve debates regarding wagering in general and the impending legalization of sports betting.

    The Las Vegas and offshore sports books have, each year, been making football wagering options available on earlier and earlier dates. The Retro Road Trip will begin with preparation to scout futures in Las Vegas.

  2. #2
    I'm looking forward to seeing Redietz's pictures of his road trip.

  3. #3
    I have a well ment question about futures. And I seriously ask this.

    Since everyone has limited money in some respect.. Or at least a limit on how much they are going to bet in a month or year and possibly lose.

    If someone is good at making daily or weekly bets....and growing their money on a daily or weekly basis......then why would they be interested in letting casinos hold their money in future bets for months and months. Sometimes 6 months.

    Couldnt that money be used more efficiently by snowballing it with successful bets throughout the year?

    Plus the way I see it....future bets are a bigger gamble because you are not just betting on talent, you are also betting on the health or non health of a team.

    So for the people who for example wait till an hour before kickoffor at least a day before kickoff t get the true weather), in order to get the total up to date info on injuries and weather........it would be against everything they believe to also bet 6 months into the future.

  4. #4
    Larry-when I bet sports in a more serious manner, I used futures for sides and middles and hedges throughout the year. The fluctuations throughout the year usually allow for that.
    I never really took a large position on a future that I didn't somehow alter during the year.

    For the "daily" bets, while there are reasons to wait to the last minute (like weather, injury, etc.) there are also reasons to bet early whether it be a better line or a discounted juice. That is a game by game decision.

  5. #5
    Originally Posted by LarryS View Post
    I have a well ment question about futures. And I seriously ask this.

    Since everyone has limited money in some respect.. Or at least a limit on how much they are going to bet in a month or year and possibly lose.

    If someone is good at making daily or weekly bets....and growing their money on a daily or weekly basis......then why would they be interested in letting casinos hold their money in future bets for months and months. Sometimes 6 months.

    Couldnt that money be used more efficiently by snowballing it with successful bets throughout the year?

    Plus the way I see it....future bets are a bigger gamble because you are not just betting on talent, you are also betting on the health or non health of a team.

    So for the people who for example wait till an hour before kickoffor at least a day before kickoff t get the true weather), in order to get the total up to date info on injuries and weather........it would be against everything they believe to also bet 6 months into the future.
    My guess would be futures bets represent a very small percentage of bankroll.
    maxpen is the shit stain in the underwear of life.

  6. #6
    People get to make smaller bets at higher odds. For non Nevada residents they get to stay connected with their chosen sport after they leave the state and have some action rolling. Hedging.

    I do it often when in Nevada on boxing and golf majors.

  7. #7
    Originally Posted by dannyj View Post
    People get to make smaller bets at higher odds. For non Nevada residents they get to stay connected with their chosen sport after they leave the state and have some action rolling. Hedging.

    I do it often when in Nevada on boxing and golf majors.
    I understand that angle for people with limited funds or people that fly in and fly out after a week and want connection to betting for a longer period of time. Heck the locals who are that type of fan are in decent shape to get a nice return on taking the LVK to win the cup.

    But I was asking someone like redeitz who is far from being the hit and miss "fan" who bets on his fave team. So if its a small percentage like MC claims...lets say its 10 percent. We the way i look at it...its 10 percent less you have to bet on daily bets. And if you are good at daily/;weekly bet......then that money that the 10 percent represents can be built up to levels bigger than the win of the money had it been sitting in the casinos bank account.for 6 months.

    I just dont get it. A bet like that is much mor eof a "gamble" than the weekly NFL bets for instance. Will a team accquire a person like the niners did that changes their fortune mid season,..killing the under bet. Or in a contact sport will key figures go down....killing the over in games won for the year.

    For people who look at sports as an "investment"......I view these bets are more uncertain than weekly bets. Too much shit can happen one way or the other that was never figured into your bet. I wouldthink that people who claim to be proficient on weekly betting, would want as much as possible as far as ammunition...and handing over 5 [percent of your gambling fund...is 5 percent ess you have for daily bettng

  8. #8
    Originally Posted by LarryS View Post
    Originally Posted by dannyj View Post
    People get to make smaller bets at higher odds. For non Nevada residents they get to stay connected with their chosen sport after they leave the state and have some action rolling. Hedging.

    I do it often when in Nevada on boxing and golf majors.
    I understand that angle for people with limited funds or people that fly in and fly out after a week and want connection to betting for a longer period of time. Heck the locals who are that type of fan are in decent shape to get a nice return on taking the LVK to win the cup.

    But I was asking someone like redeitz who is far from being the hit and miss "fan" who bets on his fave team. So if its a small percentage like MC claims...lets say its 10 percent. We the way i look at it...its 10 percent less you have to bet on daily bets. And if you are good at daily/;weekly bet......then that money that the 10 percent represents can be built up to levels bigger than the win of the money had it been sitting in the casinos bank account.for 6 months.

    I just dont get it. A bet like that is much mor eof a "gamble" than the weekly NFL bets for instance. Will a team accquire a person like the niners did that changes their fortune mid season,..killing the under bet. Or in a contact sport will key figures go down....killing the over in games won for the year.

    For people who look at sports as an "investment"......I view these bets are more uncertain than weekly bets. Too much shit can happen one way or the other that was never figured into your bet. I wouldthink that people who claim to be proficient on weekly betting, would want as much as possible as far as ammunition...and handing over 5 [percent of your gambling fund...is 5 percent ess you have for daily bettng
    Anyone betting their entire bankroll on a daily basis, even divided up amongst several bets, is not doing it right. I personally wouldn't risk more than 3% of my bankroll on a given day even if its divided amongst several different wagers.
    maxpen is the shit stain in the underwear of life.

  9. #9
    Originally Posted by mickeycrimm View Post
    Originally Posted by LarryS View Post
    Originally Posted by dannyj View Post
    People get to make smaller bets at higher odds. For non Nevada residents they get to stay connected with their chosen sport after they leave the state and have some action rolling. Hedging.

    I do it often when in Nevada on boxing and golf majors.
    I understand that angle for people with limited funds or people that fly in and fly out after a week and want connection to betting for a longer period of time. Heck the locals who are that type of fan are in decent shape to get a nice return on taking the LVK to win the cup.

    But I was asking someone like redeitz who is far from being the hit and miss "fan" who bets on his fave team. So if its a small percentage like MC claims...lets say its 10 percent. We the way i look at it...its 10 percent less you have to bet on daily bets. And if you are good at daily/;weekly bet......then that money that the 10 percent represents can be built up to levels bigger than the win of the money had it been sitting in the casinos bank account.for 6 months.

    I just dont get it. A bet like that is much mor eof a "gamble" than the weekly NFL bets for instance. Will a team accquire a person like the niners did that changes their fortune mid season,..killing the under bet. Or in a contact sport will key figures go down....killing the over in games won for the year.

    For people who look at sports as an "investment"......I view these bets are more uncertain than weekly bets. Too much shit can happen one way or the other that was never figured into your bet. I wouldthink that people who claim to be proficient on weekly betting, would want as much as possible as far as ammunition...and handing over 5 [percent of your gambling fund...is 5 percent ess you have for daily bettng
    Anyone betting their entire bankroll on a daily basis, even divided up amongst several bets, is not doing it right. I personally wouldn't risk more than 3% of my bankroll on a given day even if its divided amongst several different wagers.

    LarryS, with your permission, I will PM comments on questions like this in the future. It's pretty much as mickeycrimm says. If you're concerned about tying up five or even ten percent of your bankroll long term, and in this case long term is less than a year, then something is wrong with what you're doing.

  10. #10
    Originally Posted by mickeycrimm View Post
    Originally Posted by LarryS View Post
    Originally Posted by dannyj View Post
    People get to make smaller bets at higher odds. For non Nevada residents they get to stay connected with their chosen sport after they leave the state and have some action rolling. Hedging.

    I do it often when in Nevada on boxing and golf majors.
    I understand that angle for people with limited funds or people that fly in and fly out after a week and want connection to betting for a longer period of time. Heck the locals who are that type of fan are in decent shape to get a nice return on taking the LVK to win the cup.

    But I was asking someone like redeitz who is far from being the hit and miss "fan" who bets on his fave team. So if its a small percentage like MC claims...lets say its 10 percent. We the way i look at it...its 10 percent less you have to bet on daily bets. And if you are good at daily/;weekly bet......then that money that the 10 percent represents can be built up to levels bigger than the win of the money had it been sitting in the casinos bank account.for 6 months.

    I just dont get it. A bet like that is much mor eof a "gamble" than the weekly NFL bets for instance. Will a team accquire a person like the niners did that changes their fortune mid season,..killing the under bet. Or in a contact sport will key figures go down....killing the over in games won for the year.

    For people who look at sports as an "investment"......I view these bets are more uncertain than weekly bets. Too much shit can happen one way or the other that was never figured into your bet. I wouldthink that people who claim to be proficient on weekly betting, would want as much as possible as far as ammunition...and handing over 5 [percent of your gambling fund...is 5 percent ess you have for daily bettng
    Anyone betting their entire bankroll on a daily basis, even divided up amongst several bets, is not doing it right. I personally wouldn't risk more than 3% of my bankroll on a given day even if its divided amongst several different wagers.
    so there is still a difference betting 3 percent of x vs 3 percent of x-5%. On a single bet, no sweat.....but over the course of dozens of bets over the course of 6 months...it could make a difference

  11. #11
    It's a judgement call. If your futures bomb, and you go on a killer tear in straight plays, then you did the wrong thing. Usually, though, if you know what you're doing with one, you know what you're doing with the other.

    You know, it just occurred to me. I answered these queries incorrectly. LarryS didn't specifically ask about me betting futures. He asked a generalized set of questions about betting futures. If LarryS or anyone else I didn't know asked me, "Should I bet futures?", I would answer no. I don't think 99.9% of bettors have any business betting sports, much less futures. So when I report that I was going to Las Vegas to scout and bet futures, that's about me doing something. It's not about me recommending that anyone else do it.

    I wanted to be clear about that.
    Last edited by redietz; 05-09-2018 at 08:16 PM.

  12. #12
    Having Dinner with GaryT

    I always say, "If you're the smartest guy in the room, you're in the wrong room." With GaryT in the room, I don't worry about being in the wrong room.

    Before heading to Las Vegas, a visit with GaryT is usually pretty useful. Gary understands business, logistics, gambling, and sports. Some factoids regarding GaryT: In his youth, he had a perfect score on the math portion of the SAT. He's bowled more than 20 perfect games. His super power is the ability to look at something and hold all of the logistics in his head. He also writes code.

    The main thing that I've learned from GaryT is how to be more even keeled. I have always been relatively unaffected by short term results or the disaster of the day. GaryT, however, truly handles swings with aplomb. I appear unaffected. He is unaffected.

    Anyway, it's always good to review options with him because he grasps everything immediately and often has some new insights or recommendations.

  13. #13
    Dinner with GaryT
    Attached Images Attached Images  

  14. #14
    which ones Gary T? The Chinese one?
    Take off that stupid mask you big baby.

  15. #15
    Originally Posted by quahaug View Post
    which ones Gary T? The Chinese one?

    Dietz is not a Japanese name.

  16. #16
    LuxBus to Las Vegas


    Before scouting futures in Las Vegas, one must first get to Las Vegas.

    If one abides by the directive that one should arrive at the airport two hours prior to departure, then the LuxBus from Anaheim to Las Vegas takes about as much time as a flight. The price is also comparable, so once again I decided to travel via LuxBusAmerica. The trip went smoothly, and the LuxBus dropped me off in back of Harrah's, just a hundred yards from the Boyd shuttle, which took me to my host casino.


    Retro Resonance: When I was 23, I traveled cross-country via Greyhound. I don't remember much about the trip. I recall a kid from Hawaii who was a passenger for a large chunk of the journey. He kept a pet snake in his jacket. I also remember that back then buses allowed you to check a bag at point of origin and pick it up at point of finish without having to babysit it along the way. Well, that didn't work out, as my luggage was lost and turned up in Denver, and I wound up in Las Vegas wearing a black track suit on a 105 degree day. Greyhound did eventually get my suitcases delivered to me. Looking back, I can't believe I went cross-country via bus.
    Last edited by redietz; 05-19-2018 at 03:19 PM.

  17. #17
    The LuxBus
    Attached Images Attached Images  

  18. #18
    Nice looking bus. Can one enjoy a libation or is that taboo?

  19. #19
    Originally Posted by dannyj View Post
    Nice looking bus. Can one enjoy a libation or is that taboo?
    I honestly don't know. I assume it's taboo, since they get quite a few international guests with children who make the Disney to Vegas trip for a couple of days, but I don't know. You can't buy libations on the bus; they do provide sodas or water and snacks comped. Actually, now that I think about it, if you go on a day without a hostess, I don't really think anybody is going to call you on a libation or two. It might be trickier if a hostess makes the trip.

  20. #20
    Is OJ your driver?

    Classy.....

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