Page 1 of 4 1234 LastLast
Results 1 to 20 of 75

Thread: Fool's Gold -- Why Jackpot and Big Ticket Screenshots Don't Matter

  1. #1
    Some folks on this forum have argued that posting screenshots of big video poker jackpots or winning sports tickets is evidence of something, that these screenshots provide some measure of credibility. I'm going to quickly spell out why that's a bunch of hooey.

    Without context, screenshots of jackpots and winning tickets mean very little. In fact, in recent years some high stakes sports bettors have used exactly that kind of "evidence" to garner attention and promote themselves as winning players. They've taken people, media included, for a ride. Context is everything. Archaeology provides an almost perfect analogy. Pot hunters and amateur fossil hunters are held in low esteem because by extracting evidence without recording context, most of the informational value of the artifacts is lost. The context, properly recorded, can actually tell you much more than the artifacts themselves.

    Screenshots of jackpot wins or big sports tickets have the same superficial appeal and lack of context. A huge winning sports ticket could represent a hedge made against an even larger losing ticket. A 50-1 futures win doesn't tell you how many teams were played besides the winner.

    People often ask me, "How can you tell who wins and who loses?" The short answer is that you can't. That applies to everything from video poker to poker to sports wagering. My completely subjective estimate is that between 50 and 100 individuals or teams of individuals win long-term in the United States. My more interesting estimate is that the number of people who can identify these 50-100 is not much larger.

  2. #2
    This is an excellent post and very true. And I have said this about John patrick who almost daily tells about his winning from his sports service but doesnt talk about the losing tickets surrounding it. And he bets parlays so he can single out 3 parlay tickets that win for the day, and not mention the losers.

    Screenshots of piles of chips in front of you at a roulette table or a snapshot of a 9k trifecta tiicket, only talk about that snapshot in time. If you gamble long enough you can get dozens of those types of pics. Heck If i had the technology during my lifetime of gambling..I could have a few dozen of those types of pics....but it wouldnt change the fact that I am overall way way in the red.

  3. #3
    But then again to be fair, when people post such pics on websites like this...its basically saying look at me this one time. Rarely are they saying that you can extrapolate that to 365 days a year. AnD even if they claimed that is proof of daily success...no sane person would buy into that/

    But when it comes to people selling "sports services" a pictureof a ticket is meaningless

    Adam Meyer was known for posting large tickets over the years and look at hm now. I doubt those tickets were bought with all of his money...it probably was a pool of people. Yet for newbies and the naive the pics helped him sell subscriptions. And yet he needed to scam people in order to stay financially afloat.
    Last edited by LarryS; 06-14-2018 at 07:11 PM.

  4. #4
    Originally Posted by redietz View Post
    Some folks on this forum have argued that posting screenshots of big video poker jackpots or winning sports tickets is evidence of something
    That's right...it's evidence of wagering.

    Where's your evidence of wagering? Free contests don't count.

    Letters to the editor of student newspapers don't really count as being published either.

    And everybody knows that you pay to be included in Who's Who, you ditz.
    Last edited by coach belly; 06-14-2018 at 07:14 PM.

  5. #5
    It certainly is a good post and gives me a launching pad to those who ask why I'm not so successful applying Rob's strategies- that I should be making tons of money playing quarter VP . $60+ is the usual hit on a winning session and sometimes the A's do appear on ddbp. And once in à blue moon the Royal. The usual blast to my playing is that I should keep on playing since they think his strategies "guarantee" big winners and I could eventually end the day "rich". I feel lucky winning $100 a day (2-3 sessions). And I enjoy getting out of the place early. After long playing times, when I relax at home, my breathing feels "different" and I have what I call the "night sweats". Don't know if it's the frigid air or what, but it happens every time I stay too long. Some never get it- you don't win EVERY session.

  6. #6
    Originally Posted by coach belly View Post
    Originally Posted by redietz View Post
    Some folks on this forum have argued that posting screenshots of big video poker jackpots or winning sports tickets is evidence of something
    That's right...it's evidence of wagering.

    Where's your evidence of wagering? Free contests don't count.

    Letters to the editor of student newspapers don't really count as being published either.

    And everybody knows that you pay to be included in Who's Who, you ditz.
    Why, Boss, I don't mind you taking shots at me, but the Centre Daily Times is not The Collegian. I just wanted to point that out, as you have a penchant for "Gotcha!" details.

  7. #7
    Originally Posted by redietz View Post
    People often ask me, "How can you tell who wins and who loses?" The short answer is that you can't.
    Actually, I can think of one way.

    IF (and it's a big if) you can look at a genuine copy of the gambler's tax return, presumably he would list his yearly wins and losses from gambling (along with any other income), and if after, oh say seven or so years he has a substantial gain, I'd say he's a winner.

    What kind of idiot would otherwise report and pay tax on net winnings?

    The caveat of course is making sure the returns are genuine.
    What, Me Worry?

  8. #8
    Originally Posted by MisterV View Post
    Originally Posted by redietz View Post
    People often ask me, "How can you tell who wins and who loses?" The short answer is that you can't.
    Actually, I can think of one way.

    IF (and it's a big if) you can look at a genuine copy of the gambler's tax return, presumably he would list his yearly wins and losses from gambling (along with any other income), and if after, oh say seven or so years he has a substantial gain, I'd say he's a winner.

    What kind of idiot would otherwise report and pay tax on net winnings?

    The caveat of course is making sure the returns are genuine.
    Can you please explain to me, what benefit there is for any one to do this? I can only think of one and that is if there was a bet or challenge involved that involved money. In the absence of that, I see absolutely no benefit for any AP, or winning player as you call it, to show anything like this. But there is a tremendous downside....tremendous downside in several areas. So tremendous that NO ONE would consider this under almost any circumstances.

    And please, have a better answer that to prove anything to a bunch of clowns on an anonymous message board. Clowns that wouldn't accept and would find fault with any documentation shown anyway. I mean this line of thinking is just absolutely ridiculous. It shows how out of touch with reality anyone on a message board is to even think they have a right to suggest this.

  9. #9
    Originally Posted by kewlJ View Post
    Originally Posted by MisterV View Post
    Originally Posted by redietz View Post
    People often ask me, "How can you tell who wins and who loses?" The short answer is that you can't.
    Actually, I can think of one way.

    IF (and it's a big if) you can look at a genuine copy of the gambler's tax return, presumably he would list his yearly wins and losses from gambling (along with any other income), and if after, oh say seven or so years he has a substantial gain, I'd say he's a winner.

    What kind of idiot would otherwise report and pay tax on net winnings?

    The caveat of course is making sure the returns are genuine.
    Can you please explain to me, what benefit there is for any one to do this? I can only think of one and that is if there was a bet or challenge involved that involved money. In the absence of that, I see absolutely no benefit for any AP, or winning player as you call it, to show anything like this. But there is a tremendous downside....tremendous downside in several areas. So tremendous that NO ONE would consider this under almost any circumstances.

    And please, have a better answer that to prove anything to a bunch of clowns on an anonymous message board. Clowns that wouldn't accept and would find fault with any documentation shown anyway. I mean this line of thinking is just absolutely ridiculous. It shows how out of touch with reality anyone on a message board is to even think they have a right to suggest this.
    Even people who run for president and claim they're worth much more than they are don't do this.

    More importantly, Mr. V is incorrect in two very basic and obvious ways. First, nobody asks, "How can you tell who wins or loses, and is a law-abiding tax payer in the great United States?" The question people want answered is, "How can you tell who wins or loses?" Second, more important and more obvious, if your goal is to prove you win money via gambling, it's easy enough to claim all wins and skip some losses, thereby showing a profit, but paying more taxes on it than an honest reportage would require.

    I mean, that's what I'd do if I were a scam artist trying to make my reputation gambling. Any flaws in that logic, Mr. V?

    Note: Independently wealthy (aka trust fund) young 'uns have been suspected of the latter on occasion. It's an exercise in reputation-building.
    Last edited by redietz; 06-14-2018 at 11:41 PM.

  10. #10
    The "flaw" is that you'd have to pay additional tax money now, to the government for a tax debt you don't actually owe.

    Oh, you might have misunderstood the point I was making about taxes.

    I wasn't suggesting that anyone on this board do this, that would be stupid.

    Rather, I simply devised what I thought be a method of proof which would be acceptable, in the abstract if nowhere else.
    What, Me Worry?

  11. #11
    Originally Posted by MisterV View Post
    The "flaw" is that you'd have to pay additional tax money now, to the government for a tax debt you don't actually owe.

    Oh, you might have misunderstood the point I was making about taxes.

    I wasn't suggesting that anyone on this board do this, that would be stupid.

    Rather, I simply devised what I thought be a method of proof which would be acceptable, in the abstract if nowhere else.
    Mr. V, I think you're missing the point. It's all simply cost/benefit. If you're a trust fund youngster with some gambling expertise, and you're surrounded by other trust funders, and you can sacrificing 10K or 20K or even 30K a year in service to creating a tax record over a span of four or five years that establishes you as a successful professional gambler, you can easily and quickly recoup that money by recruiting investors infatuated with your "expertise." Plus it gives you a bottom line "evidence" to trot out before any media contacts.

    This kind of thing has happened. It is undoubtedly happening now. And it will happen in the future. It doesn't take a Mensan to pull this off.

  12. #12
    Originally Posted by coach belly View Post
    Originally Posted by redietz View Post
    Some folks on this forum have argued that posting screenshots of big video poker jackpots or winning sports tickets is evidence of something
    That's right...it's evidence of wagering.

    Where's your evidence of wagering? Free contests don't count.

    Letters to the editor of student newspapers don't really count as being published either.

    And everybody knows that you pay to be included in Who's Who, you ditz.
    What makes you think you are entitled to any evidence? If you don't believe it who gives a fuck?
    "More importantly, mickey thought 8-4 was two games over .500. Argued about it. C'mon, man. Nothing can top that for math expertise. If GWAE ever has you on again, you can be sure I'll be calling in with that gem.'Nuff said." REDIETZ

  13. #13
    I have had a situation a couple of time where it was beneficial for the client to show a small profit for several years to establish that he was a professional gambler to enable him to take certain expenses in later years that he otherwise would have been unable to take.

    It doesn't happen often but there are times that it is beneficial.

  14. #14
    Wouldn't the tax return of a trust fund baby have to report annual trust fund income?

    I'm not sure about the answer; while I always have done my own tax return the above scenario is one I've never considered nor researched.
    What, Me Worry?

  15. #15
    Originally Posted by coach belly View Post
    Originally Posted by redietz View Post
    Some folks on this forum have argued that posting screenshots of big video poker jackpots or winning sports tickets is evidence of something
    That's right...it's evidence of wagering.

    Where's your evidence of wagering? Free contests don't count.

    Letters to the editor of student newspapers don't really count as being published either.

    And everybody knows that you pay to be included in Who's Who, you ditz.

    Although I just demonstrated logically why "evidence of wagering" has no probative value, it seems to be very important to some confused posters. I thought that this would make a great teaching moment. So I will transfer Part Two of my "Fool's Gold" entry to the Retro Roadtrip thread, where I will walk the readers through the process of asking the right questions when confronted with possible "evidence of wagering."

    I will then post a publication or two. Forum readers can evaluate whether these are "real" publications. As is my policy, I will post only those articles with rights reverting to me. Finally, I will return to this thread to address the "evidence of wagering" nonsense from another angle.

  16. #16
    Jackpot pictures on slots, keno, VP, and E-miachines can be backed up with w2g's and sometimes even witnesses.

  17. #17
    After I moved to Vegas I noticed some retirees who play in casinos for a short time with a fixed budget. They have their daily loss limit but they also have a win goal.

    In particular there's a guy who plays craps. As soon as he has a profit of $50 he leaves.

    People like that never have jackpot photos.

  18. #18
    Originally Posted by coach belly View Post
    Originally Posted by redietz View Post
    Some folks on this forum have argued that posting screenshots of big video poker jackpots or winning sports tickets is evidence of something
    That's right...it's evidence of wagering.

    Where's your evidence of wagering? Free contests don't count.

    Letters to the editor of student newspapers don't really count as being published either.

    And everybody knows that you pay to be included in Who's Who, you ditz.

    I was thinking, "What would be the most prestigious thing I could post as evidence of being published?" I figured something that was vetted by multiple sources, that had to pass muster to an established national agency, and that had to be presented in the flesh before an expert audience, where questions had to be fielded from those experts. Those criteria would seem to fit the bill.

    Sound reasonable?

    I'll post it up on the Retro Roadtrip Thread. Please check that thread for the contents of "The Gambling Personality: An Interactional Approach."
    Attached Images Attached Images  
    Last edited by redietz; 06-18-2018 at 07:55 PM.

  19. #19
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    After I moved to Vegas I noticed some retirees who play in casinos for a short time with a fixed budget. They have their daily loss limit but they also have a win goal.

    In particular there's a guy who plays craps. As soon as he has a profit of $50 he leaves.

    People like that never have jackpot photos.
    Only way some of us can play. And over $100 win makes for a nice evening with wife!

  20. #20
    Originally Posted by coach belly View Post
    Originally Posted by redietz View Post
    Some folks on this forum have argued that posting screenshots of big video poker jackpots or winning sports tickets is evidence of something
    That's right...it's evidence of wagering.

    Where's your evidence of wagering? Free contests don't count.

    Letters to the editor of student newspapers don't really count as being published either.

    And everybody knows that you pay to be included in Who's Who, you ditz.

    I'm waiting on Boss belly's approval that what I posted counts as being published. Maybe I need something a little more lowbrow.

Thread Information

Users Browsing this Thread

There are currently 1 users browsing this thread. (0 members and 1 guests)

Similar Threads

  1. The SRR and Craps -- does it matter
    By Alan Mendelson in forum Las Vegas
    Replies: 0
    Last Post: 03-27-2016, 05:20 AM
  2. Do Pay Tables Really Matter?
    By Alan Mendelson in forum Las Vegas
    Replies: 145
    Last Post: 08-28-2015, 12:48 PM
  3. Caesars now in the ticket/event business?
    By Alan Mendelson in forum Las Vegas
    Replies: 2
    Last Post: 09-15-2014, 01:04 PM
  4. Rise in India import duty on Gold may further weaken Gold
    By kittycriston in forum Money, Shopping, Real Estate, Investing
    Replies: 0
    Last Post: 06-06-2013, 04:53 AM
  5. Why reduced pay tables don't matter in video poker.
    By Alan Mendelson in forum Las Vegas
    Replies: 34
    Last Post: 03-26-2013, 03:40 PM

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •