Fool's Gold -- Why Jackpot and Big Ticket Screenshots Don't Matter

[redietz]

Some folks on this forum have argued that posting screenshots of big video poker jackpots or winning sports tickets is evidence of something, that these screenshots provide some measure of credibility. I'm going to quickly spell out why that's a bunch of hooey.

Without context, screenshots of jackpots and winning tickets mean very little. In fact, in recent years some high stakes sports bettors have used exactly that kind of "evidence" to garner attention and promote themselves as winning players. They've taken people, media included, for a ride. Context is everything. Archaeology provides an almost perfect analogy. Pot hunters and amateur fossil hunters are held in low esteem because by extracting evidence without recording context, most of the informational value of the artifacts is lost. The context, properly recorded, can actually tell you much more than the artifacts themselves.

Screenshots of jackpot wins or big sports tickets have the same superficial appeal and lack of context. A huge winning sports ticket could represent a hedge made against an even larger losing ticket. A 50-1 futures win doesn't tell you how many teams were played besides the winner.

People often ask me, "How can you tell who wins and who loses?" The short answer is that you can't. That applies to everything from video poker to poker to sports wagering. My completely subjective estimate is that between 50 and 100 individuals or teams of individuals win long-term in the United States. My more interesting estimate is that the number of people who can identify these 50-100 is not much larger.

[LarryS]

This is an excellent post and very true. And I have said this about John patrick who almost daily tells about his winning from his sports service but doesnt talk about the losing tickets surrounding it. And he bets parlays so he can single out 3 parlay tickets that win for the day, and not mention the losers.

Screenshots of piles of chips in front of you at a roulette table or a snapshot of a 9k trifecta tiicket, only talk about that snapshot in time. If you gamble long enough you can get dozens of those types of pics. Heck If i had the technology during my lifetime of gambling..I could have a few dozen of those types of pics....but it wouldnt change the fact that I am overall way way in the red.

[slingshot]

It certainly is a good post and gives me a launching pad to those who ask why I'm not so successful applying Rob's strategies- that I should be making tons of money playing quarter VP . $60+ is the usual hit on a winning session and sometimes the A's do appear on ddbp. And once in à blue moon the Royal. The usual blast to my playing is that I should keep on playing since they think his strategies "guarantee" big winners and I could eventually end the day "rich". I feel lucky winning $100 a day (2-3 sessions). And I enjoy getting out of the place early. After long playing times, when I relax at home, my breathing feels "different" and I have what I call the "night sweats". Don't know if it's the frigid air or what, but it happens every time I stay too long. Some never get it- you don't win EVERY session.

[LarryS]

But then again to be fair, when people post such pics on websites like this...its basically saying look at me this one time. Rarely are they saying that you can extrapolate that to 365 days a year. AnD even if they claimed that is proof of daily success...no sane person would buy into that/

But when it comes to people selling "sports services" a pictureof a ticket is meaningless

Adam Meyer was known for posting large tickets over the years and look at hm now. I doubt those tickets were bought with all of his money...it probably was a pool of people. Yet for newbies and the naive the pics helped him sell subscriptions. And yet he needed to scam people in order to stay financially afloat.

[coach belly]

Some folks on this forum have argued that posting screenshots of big video poker jackpots or winning sports tickets is evidence of something

That's right...it's evidence of wagering.

Where's your evidence of wagering? Free contests don't count.

Letters to the editor of student newspapers don't really count as being published either.

And everybody knows that you pay to be included in Who's Who, you ditz.

[redietz]

Some folks on this forum have argued that posting screenshots of big video poker jackpots or winning sports tickets is evidence of something

That's right...it's evidence of wagering.

Where's your evidence of wagering? Free contests don't count.

Letters to the editor of student newspapers don't really count as being published either.

And everybody knows that you pay to be included in Who's Who, you ditz.

Why, Boss, I don't mind you taking shots at me, but the Centre Daily Times is not The Collegian. I just wanted to point that out, as you have a penchant for "Gotcha!" details.

[mickeycrimm]

Some folks on this forum have argued that posting screenshots of big video poker jackpots or winning sports tickets is evidence of something

That's right...it's evidence of wagering.

Where's your evidence of wagering? Free contests don't count.

Letters to the editor of student newspapers don't really count as being published either.

And everybody knows that you pay to be included in Who's Who, you ditz.

What makes you think you are entitled to any evidence? If you don't believe it who gives a fuck?

[redietz]

Some folks on this forum have argued that posting screenshots of big video poker jackpots or winning sports tickets is evidence of something

That's right...it's evidence of wagering.

Where's your evidence of wagering? Free contests don't count.

Letters to the editor of student newspapers don't really count as being published either.

And everybody knows that you pay to be included in Who's Who, you ditz.

Although I just demonstrated logically why "evidence of wagering" has no probative value, it seems to be very important to some confused posters. I thought that this would make a great teaching moment. So I will transfer Part Two of my "Fool's Gold" entry to the Retro Roadtrip thread, where I will walk the readers through the process of asking the right questions when confronted with possible "evidence of wagering."

I will then post a publication or two. Forum readers can evaluate whether these are "real" publications. As is my policy, I will post only those articles with rights reverting to me. Finally, I will return to this thread to address the "evidence of wagering" nonsense from another angle.

[AxelWolf]

Jackpot pictures on slots, keno, VP, and E-miachines can be backed up with w2g's and sometimes even witnesses.

[redietz]

Some folks on this forum have argued that posting screenshots of big video poker jackpots or winning sports tickets is evidence of something

That's right...it's evidence of wagering.

Where's your evidence of wagering? Free contests don't count.

Letters to the editor of student newspapers don't really count as being published either.

And everybody knows that you pay to be included in Who's Who, you ditz.

I was thinking, "What would be the most prestigious thing I could post as evidence of being published?" I figured something that was vetted by multiple sources, that had to pass muster to an established national agency, and that had to be presented in the flesh before an expert audience, where questions had to be fielded from those experts. Those criteria would seem to fit the bill.

Sound reasonable?

I'll post it up on the Retro Roadtrip Thread. Please check that thread for the contents of "The Gambling Personality: An Interactional Approach."

[redietz]

Some folks on this forum have argued that posting screenshots of big video poker jackpots or winning sports tickets is evidence of something

That's right...it's evidence of wagering.

Where's your evidence of wagering? Free contests don't count.

Letters to the editor of student newspapers don't really count as being published either.

And everybody knows that you pay to be included in Who's Who, you ditz.

I'm waiting on Boss belly's approval that what I posted counts as being published. Maybe I need something a little more lowbrow.

[coach belly]

I'm waiting on Boss belly's approval that what I posted counts as being published. Maybe I need something a little more lowbrow.

In HS a bunch of students wrote poems and short stories, and sent them to a printer & binder.

They called it our school's "Literary Magazine".

The HS library has a copy for each year it was "published", as do each of the contributors.

Getting a bunch of term papers bound does not count as being published...unless your a ditz who needs it to count for something.

[MisterV]

People often ask me, "How can you tell who wins and who loses?" The short answer is that you can't.

Actually, I can think of one way.

IF (and it's a big if) you can look at a genuine copy of the gambler's tax return, presumably he would list his yearly wins and losses from gambling (along with any other income), and if after, oh say seven or so years he has a substantial gain, I'd say he's a winner.

What kind of idiot would otherwise report and pay tax on net winnings?

The caveat of course is making sure the returns are genuine.

[kewlJ]

People often ask me, "How can you tell who wins and who loses?" The short answer is that you can't.

Actually, I can think of one way.

IF (and it's a big if) you can look at a genuine copy of the gambler's tax return, presumably he would list his yearly wins and losses from gambling (along with any other income), and if after, oh say seven or so years he has a substantial gain, I'd say he's a winner.

What kind of idiot would otherwise report and pay tax on net winnings?

The caveat of course is making sure the returns are genuine.

Can you please explain to me, what benefit there is for any one to do this? I can only think of one and that is if there was a bet or challenge involved that involved money. In the absence of that, I see absolutely no benefit for any AP, or winning player as you call it, to show anything like this. But there is a tremendous downside....tremendous downside in several areas. So tremendous that NO ONE would consider this under almost any circumstances.

And please, have a better answer that to prove anything to a bunch of clowns on an anonymous message board. Clowns that wouldn't accept and would find fault with any documentation shown anyway. I mean this line of thinking is just absolutely ridiculous. It shows how out of touch with reality anyone on a message board is to even think they have a right to suggest this.

[redietz]

People often ask me, "How can you tell who wins and who loses?" The short answer is that you can't.

Actually, I can think of one way.

IF (and it's a big if) you can look at a genuine copy of the gambler's tax return, presumably he would list his yearly wins and losses from gambling (along with any other income), and if after, oh say seven or so years he has a substantial gain, I'd say he's a winner.

What kind of idiot would otherwise report and pay tax on net winnings?

The caveat of course is making sure the returns are genuine.

Can you please explain to me, what benefit there is for any one to do this? I can only think of one and that is if there was a bet or challenge involved that involved money. In the absence of that, I see absolutely no benefit for any AP, or winning player as you call it, to show anything like this. But there is a tremendous downside....tremendous downside in several areas. So tremendous that NO ONE would consider this under almost any circumstances.

And please, have a better answer that to prove anything to a bunch of clowns on an anonymous message board. Clowns that wouldn't accept and would find fault with any documentation shown anyway. I mean this line of thinking is just absolutely ridiculous. It shows how out of touch with reality anyone on a message board is to even think they have a right to suggest this.

Even people who run for president and claim they're worth much more than they are don't do this.

More importantly, Mr. V is incorrect in two very basic and obvious ways. First, nobody asks, "How can you tell who wins or loses, and is a law-abiding tax payer in the great United States?" The question people want answered is, "How can you tell who wins or loses?" Second, more important and more obvious, if your goal is to prove you win money via gambling, it's easy enough to claim all wins and skip some losses, thereby showing a profit, but paying more taxes on it than an honest reportage would require.

I mean, that's what I'd do if I were a scam artist trying to make my reputation gambling. Any flaws in that logic, Mr. V?

Note: Independently wealthy (aka trust fund) young 'uns have been suspected of the latter on occasion. It's an exercise in reputation-building.

[MisterV]

The "flaw" is that you'd have to pay additional tax money now, to the government for a tax debt you don't actually owe.

Oh, you might have misunderstood the point I was making about taxes.

I wasn't suggesting that anyone on this board do this, that would be stupid.

Rather, I simply devised what I thought be a method of proof which would be acceptable, in the abstract if nowhere else.

[redietz]

The "flaw" is that you'd have to pay additional tax money now, to the government for a tax debt you don't actually owe.

Oh, you might have misunderstood the point I was making about taxes.

I wasn't suggesting that anyone on this board do this, that would be stupid.

Rather, I simply devised what I thought be a method of proof which would be acceptable, in the abstract if nowhere else.

Mr. V, I think you're missing the point. It's all simply cost/benefit. If you're a trust fund youngster with some gambling expertise, and you're surrounded by other trust funders, and you can sacrificing 10K or 20K or even 30K a year in service to creating a tax record over a span of four or five years that establishes you as a successful professional gambler, you can easily and quickly recoup that money by recruiting investors infatuated with your "expertise." Plus it gives you a bottom line "evidence" to trot out before any media contacts.

This kind of thing has happened. It is undoubtedly happening now. And it will happen in the future. It doesn't take a Mensan to pull this off.

[Rob.Singer]

People often ask me, "How can you tell who wins and who loses?" The short answer is that you can't.

Actually, I can think of one way.

IF (and it's a big if) you can look at a genuine copy of the gambler's tax return, presumably he would list his yearly wins and losses from gambling (along with any other income), and if after, oh say seven or so years he has a substantial gain, I'd say he's a winner.

What kind of idiot would otherwise report and pay tax on net winnings?

The caveat of course is making sure the returns are genuine.

Tax returns alone prove very little. Arci had his sent to Alan, and all it did was contradict his long-running claims and make him look stupid. The only way to prove you win like you say you do is to take the doubters thru a comprehensive review of the items--which includes tax returns and audits--that I described in my Gaming Today challenge.

Redietz remains bothered by those of us who've posted pics of big jackpot wins and W2G's only because he knows it proves that some of us actually place bets like we say we do---and he cannot do that. And that's because all he does is sell picks with a group of dropouts like himself.

Kew I have no doubt that you're nothing but another of the WoV group of armchair gamblers who looks to forums for relevancy by making up being some hot-shot card counter, when you really play no more than two-bit gambler mickeycrimm. You're both lost in the gambling world, and you reach your intermittent pots of virtual gold by making your anonymous forum lives the #1 driver in otherwise irrelevant existences.

[a2a3dseddie]

Tax returns alone prove very little. Arci had his sent to Alan, and all it did was contradict his long-running claims and make him look stupid.

Revisionist history?

I see no reason to argue or post anything here any longer. I'm simply stunned that Alan talked arci into showing numbers like that, and all for what reason? I'm feeling stupid for even ever getting into these type arguments over the years.

Rob you blew it. You had a chance to shut your critics up and you failed to do it. You made this about Arc just like you made it about Dancer or Scott when it was always about you. You will always be known as the rude guy who insulted dead people but never proved his own claims.

Keep the RV tank full. The zombie apocalypse is coming. LOL

Since one of the protagonists has taken his ball and gone home, we'll never know the truth. At least one guy had the balls to present his numbers, good or bad.

Proves the old adage stand up to a bully and he'll run away. Well Rob ran away with his tail between his legs. Thanks Alan for exposing him by saying you wouldn't ban him and make him see the thing through. Arci was right all along these past dozen years.

Yes, it seems that Rob's credibility is all but shot at this point barring some huge surprise coming soon.

If Rob was lying about all these results over the years, why would he spend all this time and mental energy doing so over a 10-15 year period making perhaps tens of thousands of forum posts spanning many different internet message boards?

I can't imagine how much sheer mental energy Rob spent (not to mention the thousands of hours spent over the years) bolstering what many people are suspecting is a lie. What sane person would pursue such a tragic waste of time and life energy?

[redietz]

People often ask me, "How can you tell who wins and who loses?" The short answer is that you can't.

Actually, I can think of one way.

IF (and it's a big if) you can look at a genuine copy of the gambler's tax return, presumably he would list his yearly wins and losses from gambling (along with any other income), and if after, oh say seven or so years he has a substantial gain, I'd say he's a winner.

What kind of idiot would otherwise report and pay tax on net winnings?

The caveat of course is making sure the returns are genuine.

Tax returns alone prove very little. Arci had his sent to Alan, and all it did was contradict his long-running claims and make him look stupid. The only way to prove you win like you say you do is to take the doubters thru a comprehensive review of the items--which includes tax returns and audits--that I described in my Gaming Today challenge.

Redietz remains bothered by those of us who've posted pics of big jackpot wins and W2G's only because he knows it proves that some of us actually place bets like we say we do---and he cannot do that. And that's because all he does is sell picks with a group of dropouts like himself.

Kew I have no doubt that you're nothing but another of the WoV group of armchair gamblers who looks to forums for relevancy by making up being some hot-shot card counter, when you really play no more than two-bit gambler mickeycrimm. You're both lost in the gambling world, and you reach your intermittent pots of virtual gold by making your anonymous forum lives the #1 driver in otherwise irrelevant existences.

Argentino, I understand that I'm a low roller. But perhaps you've peeked at the futures wins of my late cousin, E.R.Dietz, in the Retro Road Trip thread. I think you'd appreciate his tickets.