Expected Value Discussion

[regnis]

Another misstatement Axel. The day you lost is not a great day. You may have made a wager with a very high EV. But you lost--so not a great day. And that is really the essence of what this argument is all about. And when you do win the 42,500, that will be a great day, although the EV of that wager was no different.

You must be a Fucking Idiot! Are you a part of the Confederacy? Sure sounds like it! Any day that you get a 50/50 chance and risk 8500 to win 42,500 is a Fucking Great Day no matter win or lose any amount. You Fucking Idiots are the dumbest pieces of shit that don't understand that in this lifestyle all you are looking for is something like this and to exploit it over and over till you have to move to the next exploit. Fucking Amatures!

Even though you say your name has no relation to Rob Singer I think it is clear you are Singer or Regnis... Fuck You!

Nice to hear from you Monet. When is your release date from the institution?

[regnis]

We are dumb because we believe losing is bad. Hmmmmm--must be that new math they talk about.

I didn't say it was a bad bet or bad odds. He had great odds and lost. Thus--not a great day. Yes--he should do it every day and yes he will probably make a ton of $$.

But to lose with good odds or bad odds or any other way is bad. Would I make that bet? Yes--every effin day. And any day I lost would suck.

[mickeycrimm]

Mickey--don't get snarky with me. Compare it with actual results to what end? What good does it do? We all know there is variance. Kewl is certain that in the long run he will approximate the EV. So what good does it do to look at it after the one bad day? If he is certain then it doesn't matter and he need not look at it.

If it is just a mental crutch then so be it. It may be meaningless to some but it may have some comfort to others. So be it. But don't make it sound like it has some other intrinsic value.

I'm ok with Kewl's answer from above.

You're the one that's been getting snarky. I didn't make it sound like it had some intrinsic value. Anyone who says I did is a fucking liar. Here, I'll make it a little easier on you and Mentalmidgetson. I "played off" $330 in EV today. It means the exact same thing as "I accumulated $330 in EV today." But maybe you can grasp "played off." There's no hope for Mentalmidgetson. And this bullshit about it comforting someone is total hogwash.

Mickey--how did you play off EV? Is there a special EV voucher that you put in the machine?

Fuck off, regnistupid.

[mickeycrimm]

mickey, kewlj, Looking at some of the analysis you make before making a bet... determining if it is indeed a +EV opportunity and reading through your explanations is very interesting stuff. What would happen if you didn't track this EV afterwards? I mean, uncovering +EV situations to bet on anyone can understand, but does it really matter after the bets are resolved?

For me the amount of EV I'm running off (accumulating) tells me where I should be. I'm a 20K winner in Town A and I'm only a 15K winner in town B. In Town A I'm running off (accumulating) $400 a day in EV. In Town B I'm running off $600 a day in EV. Which town should I spend more time in? If I go by results I will come up with the wrong answer.

The reason I'm spending so much time out of state these days is because I'm running off (accumulating) twice the amount of EV out of state than in state. In other words the opportunity is currently much better out of state.

You can also use your track record to plan financially.

[mickeycrimm]

Eddie brought up a good point. Casinos Marketing bases their offers on accumulated EV.

Player A spent two days at the property. He/she ran a total wager of $20,000 on a slot with an 8% house edge and won $1000.
Player B spent two days at the property. He/she ran a total wager of $20,000 on a slot with an 8% house edge and lost $1500.

What these two players won or lost is irrelevant. The pertinent stats are the total wager and house edge. The house accumulated $1600 in EV from each of these players. Marketing uses the accumulated EV as a basis to determine future offers to these two players.

[redietz]

A couple of things: whether KJ's 8K loss was a good day or bad day in any sense depends on whether those opportunities are going to be there awhile. If the exact same game will be there for months, I'd feel a lot better playing perfectly and getting slammed than if that game will disappear next week. If you're going to play blackjack for a living, you can't close up shop on a minus 8k day just because of variance. Unless, of course, you suspect a mechanic is part of the problem.

And I guess that would be an issue with me. I'm not able to recognize a mechanic, or a magician, so I'd become paranoid over a result like that which took 10% of my annual earnings away in one shift. Video poker is different, in that so much value is in the royals. I've experienced 100k (hands) without royals and gotten three in a few hundred hands, so getting clobbered in one day with a big edge wouldn't bother me.

I think you have to track the EV. I don't see how a professional machine player or blackjack player could pass on doing that.

[jbjb]

A couple of things: whether KJ's 8K loss was a good day or bad day in any sense depends on whether those opportunities are going to be there awhile. If the exact same game will be there for months, I'd feel a lot better playing perfectly and getting slammed than if that game will disappear next week. If you're going to play blackjack for a living, you can't close up shop on a minus 8k day just because of variance. Unless, of course, you suspect a mechanic is part of the problem.

And I guess that would be an issue with me. I'm not able to recognize a mechanic, or a magician, so I'd become paranoid over a result like that which took 10% of my annual earnings away in one shift. Video poker is different, in that so much value is in the royals. I've experienced 100k (hands) without royals and gotten three in a few hundred hands, so getting clobbered in one day with a big edge wouldn't bother me.

I think you have to track the EV. I don't see how a professional machine player or blackjack player could pass on doing that.

Well said.

[monet]

A couple of things: whether KJ's 8K loss was a good day or bad day in any sense depends on whether those opportunities are going to be there awhile. If the exact same game will be there for months, I'd feel a lot better playing perfectly and getting slammed than if that game will disappear next week. If you're going to play blackjack for a living, you can't close up shop on a minus 8k day just because of variance. Unless, of course, you suspect a mechanic is part of the problem.

And I guess that would be an issue with me. I'm not able to recognize a mechanic, or a magician, so I'd become paranoid over a result like that which took 10% of my annual earnings away in one shift. Video poker is different, in that so much value is in the royals. I've experienced 100k (hands) without royals and gotten three in a few hundred hands, so getting clobbered in one day with a big edge wouldn't bother me.

I think you have to track the EV. I don't see how a professional machine player or blackjack player could pass on doing that.

You are not wrong in a regular Joe type of thinking sense but when you AP for a living you are always looking and finding a place where you have an edge so it doesn't matter win or lose. Win and Lose is the same thing for a player who is playing at a positive every time they step up to the plate. Only the morons who aren't in it daily think in terms of I just won 10 grand or I just lost 10 grand. Leave that type of thinking to the ploppies which are almost everyone. Even if you only have 1 hour to play at a high edge you should be the happiest player in the world because that is what you are looking for. You want to get your money in at every single opportunity where you have an edge and the bigger the better no matter time limit or how much you win or lose on that given play.

Most players are thinking about Risk vs. Reward but once you get past thinking about the "money" all you are thinking is what is my return % or edge. The key as you elude to is that you need to be able to generate these opportunities on a consistent basis which isn't as easy or as hard as you might think. Think about that story of Dancer and WoN together hammering out a play for 8 hours that had an edge of over 100 dollars per hour. They ran good and ended up beating it but that isn't what mattered in the end. What matters is to be able to play with that edge and only to play when you have those edges. Money doesn't matter once you get to a certain level.

[regnis]

You're the one that's been getting snarky. I didn't make it sound like it had some intrinsic value. Anyone who says I did is a fucking liar. Here, I'll make it a little easier on you and Mentalmidgetson. I "played off" $330 in EV today. It means the exact same thing as "I accumulated $330 in EV today." But maybe you can grasp "played off." There's no hope for Mentalmidgetson. And this bullshit about it comforting someone is total hogwash.

Mickey--how did you play off EV? Is there a special EV voucher that you put in the machine?

Fuck off, regnistupid.

Mickey-I haven't said an unkind word towards you and have been a fan of your stories and the road trip pictures. I admire what you do--you have your niche. But an inability to have an open discussion without resorting to vulgarity shows your true colors.

Having the edge is fine. Losing sucks. I don't think that is so hard to understand. If I make a great bet with a huge edge and I lose, that sucks. As I said, I too would keep making that bet. But that day that I lost still sucks--and even more so because I had such a big edge.

You commented that you played off EV. I don't understand. Splain Lucy!!

[regnis]

A couple of things: whether KJ's 8K loss was a good day or bad day in any sense depends on whether those opportunities are going to be there awhile. If the exact same game will be there for months, I'd feel a lot better playing perfectly and getting slammed than if that game will disappear next week. If you're going to play blackjack for a living, you can't close up shop on a minus 8k day just because of variance. Unless, of course, you suspect a mechanic is part of the problem.

And I guess that would be an issue with me. I'm not able to recognize a mechanic, or a magician, so I'd become paranoid over a result like that which took 10% of my annual earnings away in one shift. Video poker is different, in that so much value is in the royals. I've experienced 100k (hands) without royals and gotten three in a few hundred hands, so getting clobbered in one day with a big edge wouldn't bother me.

I think you have to track the EV. I don't see how a professional machine player or blackjack player could pass on doing that.

Red-I would ask what value there really is in tracking the EV. He knows the EV and he says it doesn't change on the next hand or the 10,000th hand. So as long as he knows he has a +EV on every hand, what good does tracking do? Yes--I want to know that I have an advantage on my bet. But if I know exactly what that advantage is, isn't that the end? It doesn't make it more likely that I will win any hand down the road. And again, the concept of accumulating it just seems meaningless to me.

[mickeycrimm]

Mickey--how did you play off EV? Is there a special EV voucher that you put in the machine?

Fuck off, regnistupid.

Mickey-I haven't said an unkind word towards you and have been a fan of your stories and the road trip pictures. I admire what you do--you have your niche. But an inability to have an open discussion without resorting to vulgarity shows your true colors.

Having the edge is fine. Losing sucks. I don't think that is so hard to understand. If I make a great bet with a huge edge and I lose, that sucks. As I said, I too would keep making that bet. But that day that I lost still sucks--and even more so because I had such a big edge.

You commented that you played off EV. I don't understand. Splain Lucy!!

"playing it off" or "played off" just means you are executing or executed the play. A recent example would be where I got 10X points at the Deadwood Mountain Grand weekend before last. They have a blackjack console in there that's a 99.43% base game. The card is worth .4% so 10X made it 4%. The 10X lasted two hours on Friday night and 2 hours on Saturday night. So I went in on both Friday and Saturday nights and "played it off." At the speed the machine plays it was $800 in EV but I actually made $650.

Don't anyone go flying off to Deadwood. The play is over.

[regnis]

Thanks--now i understand what you meant.

[Alan Mendelson]

Nice play mickeycrimm. But it seems to me even a new player could have done what you did? That means get a card and play at the designated time for the bonus, right?

[mickeycrimm]

Nice play mickeycrimm. But it seems to me even a new player could have done what you did? That means get a card and play at the designated time for the bonus, right?

Yes, and there were drunk ploppies playing at the same time I was. They slowed me down quite a bit. They weren't betting much and I think they were oblivious to the promotion going on. They were coming and going.

[mickeycrimm]

Nice play mickeycrimm. But it seems to me even a new player could have done what you did? That means get a card and play at the designated time for the bonus, right?

Alan, would a novice be able to find the best game for such a promotion? And would they know optimal strategy? Would they even be aware of the value involved?

[Alan Mendelson]

So this is not an example of "tracking EV" but just being aware of a promotion and playing it at the right time?

[Alan Mendelson]

Nice play mickeycrimm. But it seems to me even a new player could have done what you did? That means get a card and play at the designated time for the bonus, right?

Alan, would a novice be able to find the best game for such a promotion? And would they know optimal strategy? Would they even be aware of the value involved?

8/5 Bonus Poker pays 99.2% and Mickeys game paid 99.43% Both would still get the 4% bonus? I'd stick with the game I know.

There is a terrible danger playing a game you don't know because of some promotion.

[Alan Mendelson]

Thanks--now i understand what you meant.

I also was thrown off by the phrase "played it off" but now I understand as well.

I think there are regional and demographic and age differences in how we use various words and what their meanings are.

I order scrambled eggs "dry" and in the East it's not a problem. Here on the west coast waiters and waitresses don't know what "dry" means. (It's well done.)

[tableplay]

So as long as he knows he has a +EV on every hand, what good does tracking do?

For one thing, it allows you to determine if a game is rigged. KewlJ gave an excellent example of this when he outlined his experience at the Eastside Cannery in Las Vegas -- obviously if you are running at -5 standard deviations below the EV for an extended period of time, then knowing what your earn should be (via tracking the EV) versus what's actually going on will have proven to be very valuable since you will stop playing the rigged game based on the huge differential between expected and actual.

[tableplay]

Nice play mickeycrimm. But it seems to me even a new player could have done what you did? That means get a card and play at the designated time for the bonus, right?

Alan, would a novice be able to find the best game for such a promotion? And would they know optimal strategy? Would they even be aware of the value involved?

8/5 Bonus Poker pays 99.2% and Mickeys game paid 99.43% Both would still get the 4% bonus? I'd stick with the game I know.

There is a terrible danger playing a game you don't know because of some promotion.

Machine BJ has a much lower variance than 8/5 bonus poker (vastly so) - so if you are looking for a well-behaved, predictable earn, the BJ is the way to go - but of course this only applies to people who know the strategy of both games.