Expected Value Discussion

[Alan Mendelson]

How about switching tables? Seems like a dead giveaway for an expert card counter.

[redietz]

How about switching tables? Seems like a dead giveaway for an expert card counter.

Yes, it seems unlikely that casinos would tolerate a card counter, even if he was low key and played sporadically and conservatively, just doubling his bets when counts were positive. A good investigative reporter would want to discuss the issues with that story.

Of course, that same investigative reporter would be chomping at the bit, one presumes, to debunk tales of a video poker player taking even more money per year from casinos than the blackjack player, using a wild variance of obvious bets (sometimes tracked by player's cards), and playing an ostensibly negative expectation game. That video poker player's profile would stand out like a T. Rex in a chicken coop to casino personnel, so undoubtedly the investigative reporter would turn his full cynical eye to such a series of posts and claims. Virtually every one of the video poker player's posts would be met with incredulousness and comments.

Or not, eh?

[MisterV]

Alan previously gave Singer a soapbox to explain his methods, via videos which are now on youtube.

I suppose some might call it enabling, while others might consider it reporting.

[kewlJ]

Still, you'd think him increasing his bet during a favorable count should be easy to detect?

Increasing the wager really is NOT the problem. Many different kinds of players increase wagers during the shoe. People playing progressive betting systems. People chasing losses. Increasing wagers really is not the problem. As a matter of fact, watch non-AP players. They buy in for whatever amount and almost always bet small to begin with. At the $25 tables new players joining almost always start out betting $25 or $50. Some always bet that same low amount (flat bet). But many start varying wagers as the shoe goes on. If they have been losing they start betting more to get even (chasing). If the are winning, they start "chipping up" or increasing wagers. And then like I said there are the progression players that start doubling up losses or some other martingale betting system that doesn't work.

So increasing one's wager really is no tell at all. It is when a card counter reverts back to that minimum or small wager at the shuffle after playing larger towards the end of the last shoe that is the really big "tell". I eliminate this really big "tell" by making that one of my exit triggers. I exit at the shuffle after showing my spread (bigger bets) rather than revert back to that small wager (obvious).

The other thing that is really important is stakes. I play green to mid black. This means my top wager is in the $400 range at most places (except larger casinos during busier times). This is very important. $500 is a major threshold, where casinos and pit take notice. If you stay below that you are golden at all but the sweatiest joints and they aren't in my rotation anyway.

[regnis]

I don't remember who it was that said this on another thread, but it was suggested that the people behind the tables have tedious boring jobs and are just looking to get to the end of their shift without any major problems. If Kewl is playing at moderate levels, do they really want to get involved?

Plus, he varies in his appearance from a Trump mask to a Nixon mask every week.

[MisterV]

I understand.

But there are only so many casinos in sin city, and by report you limit yourself to playing at, what, 20 or so different ones?

You've played regularly / near-daily for years now, which means you play the same ones over and over, albeit not daily; a sharp-eyed pit critter might recall having seen you before, winning regularly.

That might cause him to study your play, at which time he'd discover your modus operandi of hitting and running after scoring on a favorable count.

You or someone else posted something to the effect that the quality of surveillance in this regard leaves something to be desired, thus allowing you your opportunity.

I'm just saying I'm surprised you've been getting away with it and not being detected and backed off; obviously your plan is working.

[Alan Mendelson]

A player who starts off at $25 or $50 and moves up to $400 gets noticed, especially if they're a repeat customer. If the dealer says nothing ("chip play") they'd lose their job. If the pit critters didn't notice a host would. Kewlj must have hosts coming up to him non-stop. How does a black chip bettor avoid hosts?

[MisterV]

Alan, are you implying that KJ is not truthful about his claims of success in the green felt jungle?

[jbjb]

A player who starts off at $25 or $50 and moves up to $400 gets noticed, especially if they're a repeat customer. If the dealer says nothing ("chip play") they'd lose their job. If the pit critters didn't notice a host would. Kewlj must have hosts coming up to him non-stop. How does a black chip bettor avoid hosts?

Step one, play unrated.

[Alan Mendelson]

Obsessed redietz who can't let the chance for a dig at me or Rob Singer wrote:

"That video poker player's profile would stand out like a T. Rex in a chicken coop to casino personnel, so undoubtedly the investigative reporter would turn his full cynical eye to such a series of posts and claims."

It's been well documented that Rob was told not to play in certain casinos because of his winnings. When I did the interviews with him it was tough to find a casino that would let us do them on the casino floor, so one set of interviews were done in my room at Caesars and one set was done in the high limit area of Hard Rock.

Another strike out for redietz.

[jbjb]

Step two, keep a chip inventory to avoid buy ins.

[jbjb]

Step three, try to play when it's somewhat busy where the pit personnel are also busy.

[Alan Mendelson]

A player who starts off at $25 or $50 and moves up to $400 gets noticed, especially if they're a repeat customer. If the dealer says nothing ("chip play") they'd lose their job. If the pit critters didn't notice a host would. Kewlj must have hosts coming up to him non-stop. How does a black chip bettor avoid hosts?

Step one, play unrated.

Playing unrated doesn't stop a dealer, a pit critter or a host from taking notice.

[Alan Mendelson]

Step two, keep a chip inventory to avoid buy ins.

Dealers and pit bosses will take note of what you bring to the table.

[jbjb]

A player who starts off at $25 or $50 and moves up to $400 gets noticed, especially if they're a repeat customer. If the dealer says nothing ("chip play") they'd lose their job. If the pit critters didn't notice a host would. Kewlj must have hosts coming up to him non-stop. How does a black chip bettor avoid hosts?

Step one, play unrated.

Playing unrated doesn't stop a dealer, a pit critter or a host from taking notice.

It does when you play 1 or 2 shoes at most then move on. Green level of blackjack play is small beans in most Vegas stores. Hell, some of the bigger places don't even rate $50 of less games.

[Alan Mendelson]

Step three, try to play when it's somewhat busy where the pit personnel are also busy.

The red chip players might get overlooked, but green chip to four black chip players?

Have you ever played in a casino?

[kewlJ]

Step two, keep a chip inventory to avoid buy ins.

Absolutely. Not only avoid buy-ins, but color-ups when you are exiting as well as cashing in at the cage, which is where the casino has the best chance to get a good photo of you. This is one of the areas I miss my partner the most (on a professional basis). He managed my chip inventory and he did so expertly. He really became very efficient at doing so. It is not as easy as you might think.

[jbjb]

Step three, try to play when it's somewhat busy where the pit personnel are also busy.

The red chip players might get overlooked, but green chip to four black chip players?

Have you ever played in a casino?

Our BP's routinely FLAT BET 2 × $400 or higher. We're NEVER bothered by hosts. Yes pit people watch, but hosts, not yet.

[Alan Mendelson]

Step one, play unrated.

Playing unrated doesn't stop a dealer, a pit critter or a host from taking notice.

It does when you play 1 or 2 shoes at most then move on. Green level of blackjack play is small beans in most Vegas stores. Hell, some of the bigger places don't even rate $50 of less games.

You missed kewlj saying he goes up to $400.

Stop. Your hole is deep enough.

[Alan Mendelson]

Step three, try to play when it's somewhat busy where the pit personnel are also busy.

The red chip players might get overlooked, but green chip to four black chip players?

Have you ever played in a casino?

Our BP's routinely FLAT BET 2 × $400 or higher. We're NEVER bothered by hosts. Yes pit people watch, but hosts, not yet.

Of course you're not bothered by hosts. You don't play in real casinos.