Eddie... it's part of the recipe of his secret sauce.
Eddie... it's part of the recipe of his secret sauce.
Yeah you would "hope" that....but it doesn't. It doesn't because there is something called short-term fluctuation or short-term variance. But a larger sample size overcomes any short-term fluctuation or variance. That is math.
Only a very large trial or sample size makes them interchangeable. (Law of Large numbers).
Let's try this:
You flip a coin 10 times. There could be 7 or 8 heads come up (70%, 80%). There could even be 10 heads come up (100%).
But you flip a coin 10,000 times or 100,000 times are you going to see 100%?, 80%?, 70%? No the results are going to much closer.....very close to expectation, which is 50%.
BUT, you look through those results of 10,000 flips. Are you going to see many 7 out of 10 segments that are heads? or 8 out of 10 segments that are heads? YES YOU ARE!
Are you going to see some 10 out of 10 segments that are heads? Most likely.
It is all of these 10 flip segments, the 7 out of 10's, the 8 out of 10's, as well as the 2 out of 10's and the 3 out of 10's that make up the totality.
So in the case of my blackjack play, yeah that day was a 1 heads out of 10, maybe even a 0 heads out of 10. But it is still PART of that much bigger totality. It counts towards that much bigger total results of which the mathematics WILL over come any short-term fluctuation or variance. It HAS to! That is the Law of Large Numbers.
So kewlj, how do you recoup your losses? Do you make future bets at larger amounts (similar to Rob Singer)? Or do you hope for a long string of wins to offset the string of losses?
I get that 100% kewlj.
I just don't know if I would describe those results as "accumulated EV", but if that's what mathematicians call it, so be it!
How do you accumulate EV? The EV is the same with each bet on each game.
When I play 8/5 Bonus poker the return is 99.2% If I play 10/6 Double Double Bonus poker (they have this game at Red Rock) the return is 100.07%
In both games, the EV does not accumulate with additional play. It's the same on each and every hand played.
If it seems like I repeat "law of Large Numbers" a lot....I do. Because that is the mathematical principal, mathematical fact that all gambling results are based on. AND it is the exact mathematical principal or mathematical fact that debunks Mr. Singer's claims.
Let's use the coin flip example. I think we would all agree that if you flip a coin 10,000, you will not see 7000 heads right? Well all except Mr. Singer and those that follow his voodoo.
Singer says, I can flip 10 times and get 7 heads out of 10, which we would all agree on. He then goes on to say, I will just do that 7 out of 10 over and over and over, for a total of 7000 out of 10,000. Mr Singer just refuses to account for a basic mathematical principal and fact...."the Law of Large Numbers".
That's what was discussed in another thread, but no one really answered.
"If you're running behind expectation now, then you should run ahead of expectation in the future to even things out!"
The problem is, it's gambling. You don't KNOW when you'll run ahead of expectation or if you can get there before your money runs out. All we know is over the LONG RUN, the EV of the game prevails.
I sure wish I knew when to bet big when I was "due". Alas, I don't have supernatural "hot and cold cycle" predicting powers, or the uncanny luck to hit 4 of a kind or Royal Flushes whenever I go up in denomination.
Wait...here's someone who does!
It most certainly does! And that accumulated EV makes up the total EV for a much larger trial size, 10's of thousands, even 100's of thousands of rounds. And the results for that much larger sample size will be very close to expectation or that "accumulated" EV. THAT is the Law of Large Numbers.
And BTW this goes for accumulating both positive and negative EV.
And now I am going for a hike at Red Rock. Thanks for filling up my morning.....I guess.
The law of large numbers has nothing to do with the expected value of a game such as video poker or blackjack with a set number of cards.
Okay kewlj says EV accumulates.
You read it here first.
I don't know if he's saying that. He and mickey just say you have to play a large volume in order to realize the +EV of the game they're playing.
In order to reach it you need to be properly bankrolled.
On a side note, has anyone seen those slot machines with the "MUST HIT BY" progressives? They usually have a "MAXI", "Major", "Minor", and a "Mini".
I saw a bank of Konami slots and sat down to play to pass the time. It was a 5 cent denomination, and the minimum bet was $1.25 per spin. Well after a few minutes, the machine locks up I win the Major! $587.78!
So, hooked now, whenever I'm in that casino I wait until the meter gets up to $590+ (starts at $500) and then start playing. I have no idea if that's an AP play or not but I haven't won it since that first time!
It is an AP play if you don't have to invest too much money to be the winner. The casinos love these, by the way, because they still make their profit.
Station Casinos has slots that must win by $20,000 at each casino. Stations can't lose with this promotion but players can get creamed.
You've probably never been in a six machine casino in Oregon. There are hundreds of them. The owners of these small businesses do not have hundreds of machines. JUST SIX MACHINES. You can usually find these stand alone businesses in strip malls. Whatever the machines make for the month the owner has to turn 80% of it over to the state. Out of the 20% left the owner pays rent, utilities, insurance, labor and any other costs to do business. Whatever is left is his profit.
"More importantly, mickey thought 8-4 was two games over .500. Argued about it. C'mon, man. Nothing can top that for math expertise. If GWAE ever has you on again, you can be sure I'll be calling in with that gem.'Nuff said." REDIETZ
"More importantly, mickey thought 8-4 was two games over .500. Argued about it. C'mon, man. Nothing can top that for math expertise. If GWAE ever has you on again, you can be sure I'll be calling in with that gem.'Nuff said." REDIETZ
"More importantly, mickey thought 8-4 was two games over .500. Argued about it. C'mon, man. Nothing can top that for math expertise. If GWAE ever has you on again, you can be sure I'll be calling in with that gem.'Nuff said." REDIETZ
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