Page 2 of 14 FirstFirst 12345612 ... LastLast
Results 21 to 40 of 280

Thread: Expected Value Discussion

  1. #21
    Eddie... it's part of the recipe of his secret sauce.

  2. #22
    Originally Posted by Keystone View Post
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    Kewlj stop your diversions. Of course I understand your roulette example but it's not real. It would be like telling me Rob Singer plays 5/4 Bonus Poker.
    Didn`t this clown ^^^^^ quit for like the 50th time last week?....a real man of his word I see lol
    I think you have me confused with kewlj.

  3. #23
    Originally Posted by a2a3dseddie View Post
    Let's say you find a VP game that pays back 101%. Your EV here is +1%.

    After many winning and losing sessions you manage to run a total of $1 million through the machine.

    Your EV was +1% so you would hope that the total of your actual results of each session (wins and losses) whould come close to $10,000.
    Yeah you would "hope" that....but it doesn't. It doesn't because there is something called short-term fluctuation or short-term variance. But a larger sample size overcomes any short-term fluctuation or variance. That is math.

    Originally Posted by a2a3dseddie View Post
    I guess I've never heard EV and actual results used almost interchangeably before.
    Only a very large trial or sample size makes them interchangeable. (Law of Large numbers).

    Let's try this:

    You flip a coin 10 times. There could be 7 or 8 heads come up (70%, 80%). There could even be 10 heads come up (100%).

    But you flip a coin 10,000 times or 100,000 times are you going to see 100%?, 80%?, 70%? No the results are going to much closer.....very close to expectation, which is 50%.

    BUT, you look through those results of 10,000 flips. Are you going to see many 7 out of 10 segments that are heads? or 8 out of 10 segments that are heads? YES YOU ARE!

    Are you going to see some 10 out of 10 segments that are heads? Most likely.

    It is all of these 10 flip segments, the 7 out of 10's, the 8 out of 10's, as well as the 2 out of 10's and the 3 out of 10's that make up the totality.

    So in the case of my blackjack play, yeah that day was a 1 heads out of 10, maybe even a 0 heads out of 10. But it is still PART of that much bigger totality. It counts towards that much bigger total results of which the mathematics WILL over come any short-term fluctuation or variance. It HAS to! That is the Law of Large Numbers.

  4. #24
    So kewlj, how do you recoup your losses? Do you make future bets at larger amounts (similar to Rob Singer)? Or do you hope for a long string of wins to offset the string of losses?

  5. #25
    I get that 100% kewlj.

    I just don't know if I would describe those results as "accumulated EV", but if that's what mathematicians call it, so be it!

  6. #26
    Originally Posted by a2a3dseddie View Post
    I get that 100% kewlj.

    I just don't know if I would describe those results as "accumulated EV", but if that's what mathematicians call it, so be it!
    I don't know what the mathematicians call it. I am not a mathematician, or even consider my self much of a math guy.

    BUT that's exactly what it is. It is part of the larger segment, so it "accumulates" to become that totality.

  7. #27
    How do you accumulate EV? The EV is the same with each bet on each game.

    When I play 8/5 Bonus poker the return is 99.2% If I play 10/6 Double Double Bonus poker (they have this game at Red Rock) the return is 100.07%

    In both games, the EV does not accumulate with additional play. It's the same on each and every hand played.

  8. #28
    If it seems like I repeat "law of Large Numbers" a lot....I do. Because that is the mathematical principal, mathematical fact that all gambling results are based on. AND it is the exact mathematical principal or mathematical fact that debunks Mr. Singer's claims.


    Let's use the coin flip example. I think we would all agree that if you flip a coin 10,000, you will not see 7000 heads right? Well all except Mr. Singer and those that follow his voodoo.

    Singer says, I can flip 10 times and get 7 heads out of 10, which we would all agree on. He then goes on to say, I will just do that 7 out of 10 over and over and over, for a total of 7000 out of 10,000. Mr Singer just refuses to account for a basic mathematical principal and fact...."the Law of Large Numbers".

  9. #29
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    So kewlj, how do you recoup your losses? Do you make future bets at larger amounts (similar to Rob Singer)? Or do you hope for a long string of wins to offset the string of losses?
    That's what was discussed in another thread, but no one really answered.

    "If you're running behind expectation now, then you should run ahead of expectation in the future to even things out!"

    The problem is, it's gambling. You don't KNOW when you'll run ahead of expectation or if you can get there before your money runs out. All we know is over the LONG RUN, the EV of the game prevails.

    I sure wish I knew when to bet big when I was "due". Alas, I don't have supernatural "hot and cold cycle" predicting powers, or the uncanny luck to hit 4 of a kind or Royal Flushes whenever I go up in denomination.

    Wait...here's someone who does!

    Originally Posted by Rob.Singer View Post
    The strategy looked at the growing probability of the special quads, SF's, and royals as more hands were played without hitting them and which is figured over the long-term and not simply from the beginning of every session, and if one or more were hit that did not end the session then that was figured in too. So because I kept creeping up in denomination/game volatility as these weren't hit, the frequencies of hitting them became more and more "inviting". And when you add in the enhancement of the special plays specifically designed to supercharge those potential session-ending winners, good luck isn't really overall that far away.

  10. #30
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    the EV does not accumulate with additional play.
    It most certainly does! And that accumulated EV makes up the total EV for a much larger trial size, 10's of thousands, even 100's of thousands of rounds. And the results for that much larger sample size will be very close to expectation or that "accumulated" EV. THAT is the Law of Large Numbers.

    And BTW this goes for accumulating both positive and negative EV.

    And now I am going for a hike at Red Rock. Thanks for filling up my morning.....I guess.

  11. #31
    The law of large numbers has nothing to do with the expected value of a game such as video poker or blackjack with a set number of cards.

  12. #32
    Okay kewlj says EV accumulates.

    You read it here first.

  13. #33
    Originally Posted by a2a3dseddie View Post
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    So kewlj, how do you recoup your losses? Do you make future bets at larger amounts (similar to Rob Singer)? Or do you hope for a long string of wins to offset the string of losses?
    That's what was discussed in another thread, but no one really answered.

    "If you're running behind expectation now, then you should run ahead of expectation in the future to even things out!"

    The problem is, it's gambling. You don't KNOW when you'll run ahead of expectation or if you can get there before your money runs out. All we know is over the LONG RUN, the EV of the game prevails.

    I sure wish I knew when to bet big when I was "due". Alas, I don't have supernatural "hot and cold cycle" predicting powers, or the uncanny luck to hit 4 of a kind or Royal Flushes whenever I go up in denomination.

    Wait...here's someone who does!

    Originally Posted by Rob.Singer View Post
    The strategy looked at the growing probability of the special quads, SF's, and royals as more hands were played without hitting them and which is figured over the long-term and not simply from the beginning of every session, and if one or more were hit that did not end the session then that was figured in too. So because I kept creeping up in denomination/game volatility as these weren't hit, the frequencies of hitting them became more and more "inviting". And when you add in the enhancement of the special plays specifically designed to supercharge those potential session-ending winners, good luck isn't really overall that far away.
    Eddie... Kewlj must be following Rob's strategy. When enough EV has,accumulated kewlj must increase his bets to win back what he lost.

    LOL

  14. #34
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    Eddie... Kewlj must be following Rob's strategy. When enough EV has,accumulated kewlj must increase his bets to win back what he lost. LOL
    I don't know if he's saying that. He and mickey just say you have to play a large volume in order to realize the +EV of the game they're playing.

    In order to reach it you need to be properly bankrolled.

    On a side note, has anyone seen those slot machines with the "MUST HIT BY" progressives? They usually have a "MAXI", "Major", "Minor", and a "Mini".

    I saw a bank of Konami slots and sat down to play to pass the time. It was a 5 cent denomination, and the minimum bet was $1.25 per spin. Well after a few minutes, the machine locks up I win the Major! $587.78!

    So, hooked now, whenever I'm in that casino I wait until the meter gets up to $590+ (starts at $500) and then start playing. I have no idea if that's an AP play or not but I haven't won it since that first time!

  15. #35
    It is an AP play if you don't have to invest too much money to be the winner. The casinos love these, by the way, because they still make their profit.

    Station Casinos has slots that must win by $20,000 at each casino. Stations can't lose with this promotion but players can get creamed.

  16. #36
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    Those who point to the formula as it relates to casinos overlook that casinos have hundreds of games with hundreds of players but very few games if any that offer a positive EV to the players. This is why the formula works for the casinos.
    You've probably never been in a six machine casino in Oregon. There are hundreds of them. The owners of these small businesses do not have hundreds of machines. JUST SIX MACHINES. You can usually find these stand alone businesses in strip malls. Whatever the machines make for the month the owner has to turn 80% of it over to the state. Out of the 20% left the owner pays rent, utilities, insurance, labor and any other costs to do business. Whatever is left is his profit.
    "More importantly, mickey thought 8-4 was two games over .500. Argued about it. C'mon, man. Nothing can top that for math expertise. If GWAE ever has you on again, you can be sure I'll be calling in with that gem.'Nuff said." REDIETZ

  17. #37
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    Originally Posted by a2a3dseddie View Post

    That's what was discussed in another thread, but no one really answered.

    "If you're running behind expectation now, then you should run ahead of expectation in the future to even things out!"

    The problem is, it's gambling. You don't KNOW when you'll run ahead of expectation or if you can get there before your money runs out. All we know is over the LONG RUN, the EV of the game prevails.

    I sure wish I knew when to bet big when I was "due". Alas, I don't have supernatural "hot and cold cycle" predicting powers, or the uncanny luck to hit 4 of a kind or Royal Flushes whenever I go up in denomination.

    Wait...here's someone who does!

    Originally Posted by Rob.Singer View Post
    The strategy looked at the growing probability of the special quads, SF's, and royals as more hands were played without hitting them and which is figured over the long-term and not simply from the beginning of every session, and if one or more were hit that did not end the session then that was figured in too. So because I kept creeping up in denomination/game volatility as these weren't hit, the frequencies of hitting them became more and more "inviting". And when you add in the enhancement of the special plays specifically designed to supercharge those potential session-ending winners, good luck isn't really overall that far away.
    Eddie... Kewlj must be following Rob's strategy. When enough EV has,accumulated kewlj must increase his bets to win back what he lost.

    LOL

    I had never seen that Singer quote. That's a lot of voodoo to jam into one paragraph.

  18. #38
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    The law of large numbers has nothing to do with the expected value of a game such as video poker or blackjack with a set number of cards.
    I agree with that premise. It is just that the larger sample size will get you closer to the expected value. I guess it depends how one states the comment and how one will interpret it.

  19. #39
    Originally Posted by a2a3dseddie View Post
    Originally Posted by mickeycrimm View Post
    You still want to keep collecting as much positive EV as you can.
    It is not a requirement that negative expectation gamblers like Alan understand what collecting positive EV is all about for it to work.
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    EV is not a medium of exchange.
    'Collecting positive EV' is just too abstract a concept for me to grasp.

    How can it "carry over" from 1 play to the next or "accumulate" in any way?

    Sticking with poker analogies since that's what I know (sort of ) Let's say you have pocket Aces, your heads-up opponent has pocket Kings and you're both all in before the flop. There's $100 in the pot.

    You are a 4 to 1 favorite in this spot. Your EV is +$80.

    BUT your opponent hits a King on the river and you lose.

    If we play the same hand again isn't my EV still +$80 in a $100 pot? It doesn't become +$160?

    I realize that playing this same hand and pot 100,000 times SHOULD result in me winning close to 80,000 times and that's where mickey's formula "net edge times volume equals the earn." comes in to play.

    But I don't grasp this "collecting EV" concept. To me my EV each time this particular hand and pot is played will be +$80.
    Accumulated EV doesn't "carry over." That's just b. s. started by Mendelson.
    "More importantly, mickey thought 8-4 was two games over .500. Argued about it. C'mon, man. Nothing can top that for math expertise. If GWAE ever has you on again, you can be sure I'll be calling in with that gem.'Nuff said." REDIETZ

  20. #40
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    Originally Posted by kewlJ View Post
    Originally Posted by a2a3dseddie View Post



    'Collecting positive EV' is just too abstract a concept for me to grasp.

    How can it "carry over" from 1 play to the next or "accumulate" in any way?

    Ok, well I can't do a poker analogy because I don't play poker. But here is a simple analogy that I can do.

    New roulette wheel. 10 spots. 6 red, 4 black, all with the same 10% chance of the ball landing on them. Even money payout.

    Should you choose to bet red, every spin you make will be at significant +EV.
    Should you choose to bet black every spin at significant -EV.

    So day 1 you play for 100 spins betting red. To your dismay 54 blacks came up and you lost for the day (short term result, equivalent to my $8800 short term one day loss). You lost despite playing at +EV.

    So you do the same thing every day for a year. That is a total of 36,500 spins. (this represents long term results) At 36,500 spins all at +EV you will NOT be behind. It is NOT chance. IT is mathematics. That is accumulated +EV and the mathematics (Law of Large Numbers) guarantees you will be ahead and that you will actually be very close to total +EV for those 36,500. With such a large trial or sample size what you win will be very close to expectation. Guaranteed! Mathematical Guarantee.

    So back to that first day. You lost (as I did the day mentioned), but you earned +EV for the day which is part of that larger amount of EV for the 365 days that guarantees within reason what your results will be. So yeah, that +EV carries forward. It is part of the larger sample size that guarantees what results will be.
    We all understand this roulette wheel example you gave, but this isn't a real situation. There aren't roulette games with wheels with only ten spots of which six spots are red.

    We also understand that it is to your advantage to play games with the best "expected value" for your bet. In fact, WE ALL AGREE ON THIS.

    Where we run into a problem -- and a point of debate -- is what happens when you believe you have a positive expected value for your bet but you lose. Accidents and shit happens. Then the question becomes how do you win back what you lost? Do you say "I'll catch up and recoup my losses later because I have an edge at this game." It appears this is what you are saying.

    How do you recoup your losses? Do you do what Rob Singer does and increase your bets? Or do you think you are due for a run of good luck that will offset the run of bad luck you just had?

    Now, regarding your claim about Rob Singer. Total bullshit. Why do you make these things up? First of all, Rob is not playing any games comparable to your make-believe roulette wheel. He's playing video poker with a house edge that is probably less than one percent. Frankly, how much "good luck" do you need to overcome a house edge of less than one percent? I'm going to say "not much." And if he is getting what the "expected return" says he should be getting he's losing less than one percent.

    If you want to discuss this stuff, keep it on a level playing field. Talk facts. Don't make up conditions.
    You're an idiot. Using a game like roulette as an example is to simplify things. But you are such a dunce you don't get it.
    "More importantly, mickey thought 8-4 was two games over .500. Argued about it. C'mon, man. Nothing can top that for math expertise. If GWAE ever has you on again, you can be sure I'll be calling in with that gem.'Nuff said." REDIETZ

Thread Information

Users Browsing this Thread

There are currently 1 users browsing this thread. (0 members and 1 guests)

Similar Threads

  1. Free Play discussion
    By Alan Mendelson in forum Las Vegas
    Replies: 40
    Last Post: 10-04-2023, 07:19 AM
  2. Replies: 32
    Last Post: 08-13-2017, 02:03 AM
  3. Tipping discussion MOVED HERE
    By Rob.Singer in forum Las Vegas
    Replies: 71
    Last Post: 10-25-2015, 06:15 PM
  4. Replies: 0
    Last Post: 10-16-2012, 04:45 PM
  5. More discussion needed
    By solidpro in forum Movies, Media, and Television
    Replies: 0
    Last Post: 10-28-2010, 11:00 AM

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •