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Thread: Expected Value Discussion

  1. #41
    If you say "I had a strong positive count today at blackjack and won 8 out of 9 hands for a $2000 win" Mendelson will jump in and say "What about that hand you lost? You might have had plus EV but you lost the hand. How do you intend to make that up? Does the positive EV carry over, wink, wink, laugh, laugh? You lost."
    "More importantly, mickey thought 8-4 was two games over .500. Argued about it. C'mon, man. Nothing can top that for math expertise. If GWAE ever has you on again, you can be sure I'll be calling in with that gem.'Nuff said." REDIETZ

  2. #42
    Originally Posted by mickeycrimm View Post
    If you say "I had a strong positive count today at blackjack and won 8 out of 9 hands for a $2000 win" Mendelson will jump in and say "What about that hand you lost? You might have had plus EV but you lost the hand. How do you intend to make that up? Does the positive EV carry over, wink, wink, laugh, laugh? You lost."
    Why do you make bullshit statements?

    Let me guess... because you have nothing meaningful to say?

    And this includes your bullshit statement about roulette. As if Rob Singer would play a video poker game with similar odds?

    LOL

    Keep banking that EV. You never know when you'll need it.

  3. #43
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    Originally Posted by mickeycrimm View Post
    If you say "I had a strong positive count today at blackjack and won 8 out of 9 hands for a $2000 win" Mendelson will jump in and say "What about that hand you lost? You might have had plus EV but you lost the hand. How do you intend to make that up? Does the positive EV carry over, wink, wink, laugh, laugh? You lost."
    Why do you make bullshit statements?

    Let me guess... because you have nothing meaningful to say?

    And this includes your bullshit statement about roulette. As if Rob Singer would play a video poker game with similar odds?

    LOL

    Keep banking that EV. You never know when you'll need it.
    Keep being an idiot making up stupid bullshit.
    "More importantly, mickey thought 8-4 was two games over .500. Argued about it. C'mon, man. Nothing can top that for math expertise. If GWAE ever has you on again, you can be sure I'll be calling in with that gem.'Nuff said." REDIETZ

  4. #44
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    Originally Posted by mickeycrimm View Post
    If you say "I had a strong positive count today at blackjack and won 8 out of 9 hands for a $2000 win" Mendelson will jump in and say "What about that hand you lost? You might have had plus EV but you lost the hand. How do you intend to make that up? Does the positive EV carry over, wink, wink, laugh, laugh? You lost."
    Why do you make bullshit statements?

    Let me guess... because you have nothing meaningful to say?

    And this includes your bullshit statement about roulette. As if Rob Singer would play a video poker game with similar odds?

    LOL
    Because you are nothing but a piece of No Good Shit Troll who doesn't give a Fuck about learning how to get an edge. You are such a Jew that you go into the Casino when they give you Free Play and only play the Free Play and run out the door thinking you did something when in fact you didn't do Shit.

    After that you tell everyone how you saw a guy throw 18 Yo's in a Row and can't admit the Truth,

    Next you Pal up with some Scum Sucker like Rob Singer and give that Welfare piece of Shit some Street Cred fooling the Suckers into buying his Book or System.

    After that you continue to Fucking ask stupid Fucking questions on this board only to tell everyone that gives you the Real Answers that they are Wrong.

    FUCK YOU and GO FUCKING CHOKE ON IT.... Fucking Piece of Monkey Shit!!

  5. #45
    When KJ made the statement about losing $8500 when he had his best EV day this year it had just happened. Alan has been stuck on stupid about it ever since. But what if KJ were to make a statement about it today. My guess is it would be something like "I'm up $65,000 for the year but there was a day about 3 months ago where I lost $8500 while having my best EV day of the year."

    What would be your answer to that, Alan Mendelbread?
    "More importantly, mickey thought 8-4 was two games over .500. Argued about it. C'mon, man. Nothing can top that for math expertise. If GWAE ever has you on again, you can be sure I'll be calling in with that gem.'Nuff said." REDIETZ

  6. #46
    Originally Posted by mickeycrimm View Post
    Originally Posted by a2a3dseddie View Post

    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    EV is not a medium of exchange.
    'Collecting positive EV' is just too abstract a concept for me to grasp.

    How can it "carry over" from 1 play to the next or "accumulate" in any way?

    Sticking with poker analogies since that's what I know (sort of ) Let's say you have pocket Aces, your heads-up opponent has pocket Kings and you're both all in before the flop. There's $100 in the pot.

    You are a 4 to 1 favorite in this spot. Your EV is +$80.

    BUT your opponent hits a King on the river and you lose.

    If we play the same hand again isn't my EV still +$80 in a $100 pot? It doesn't become +$160?

    I realize that playing this same hand and pot 100,000 times SHOULD result in me winning close to 80,000 times and that's where mickey's formula "net edge times volume equals the earn." comes in to play.

    But I don't grasp this "collecting EV" concept. To me my EV each time this particular hand and pot is played will be +$80.
    Accumulated EV doesn't "carry over." That's just b. s. started by Mendelson.
    OK. Time out. Time to referee (not that I am sanctioned by anyone) . We all agree that the phrase "Accumulated EV" is a target point. There are many individuals that have difficulty accepting something of no value. Likewise, while not stated, losing one session does not guarantee a winning session in the future. But a large sample size of a game in question that has mathematical proven results will give you an advantage in the long run.

    I am not a big player in either venue but I play both VP and BJ. Outside of casino multipliers, the only time a player has an advantage in either game is when you count cards in BJ.

    We have to get off the concept of storing imaginary points. If I knew and had a track record that I played a certain game that had a yearly positive result, I would document losing sessions with the hope that the session proved beneficial at the end of the year. That is based on total play at an advantage.

  7. #47
    Let me break it to you and kewlj slowly: you can't bank EV.
    You might think you're due to win because you lost previous hands but you can't change the odds or the expected value of the next hand.

    Want to play roulette?

    Black came up ten times in a row but you bet on red. Has the EV for red changed for the next spin? No.

  8. #48
    Originally Posted by mickeycrimm View Post
    When KJ made the statement about losing $8500 when he had his best EV day this year it had just happened. Alan has been stuck on stupid about it ever since. But what if KJ were to make a statement about it today. My guess is it would be something like "I'm up $65,000 for the year but there was a day about 3 months ago where I lost $8500 while having my best EV day of the year."

    What would be your answer to that, Alan Mendelbread?
    I would say it was a nonsensical statement then and now.

  9. #49
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    Let me break it to you and kewlj slowly: you can't bank EV.
    You might think you're due to win because you lost previous hands but you can't change the odds or the expected value of the next hand.

    Want to play roulette?

    Black came up ten times in a row but you bet on red. Has the EV for red changed for the next spin? No.
    Black is hot!!!!! Bet on Black!!!! No Wait!!!! Red hasn't hit ten times in a row!!!!! Red is due to hit!!!!! Bet Red!!!!!No wait!!!!Bet 'em both!!!!!
    "More importantly, mickey thought 8-4 was two games over .500. Argued about it. C'mon, man. Nothing can top that for math expertise. If GWAE ever has you on again, you can be sure I'll be calling in with that gem.'Nuff said." REDIETZ

  10. #50
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    Originally Posted by mickeycrimm View Post
    When KJ made the statement about losing $8500 when he had his best EV day this year it had just happened. Alan has been stuck on stupid about it ever since. But what if KJ were to make a statement about it today. My guess is it would be something like "I'm up $65,000 for the year but there was a day about 3 months ago where I lost $8500 while having my best EV day of the year."

    What would be your answer to that, Alan Mendelbread?
    I would say it was a nonsensical statement then and now.
    It's only nonsensical to the nonsensical.
    "More importantly, mickey thought 8-4 was two games over .500. Argued about it. C'mon, man. Nothing can top that for math expertise. If GWAE ever has you on again, you can be sure I'll be calling in with that gem.'Nuff said." REDIETZ

  11. #51
    In one of my sessions today I put in a $1000 wager with a 12.9% edge. That's $129 in accumulated EV. My actual result was I cashed out a $750 winner. I experienced some nice positive variance. You might say I got lucky. But I put in thousands of sessions like this per year. Some of those sessions I'm going to underperform, some I'm going to overperform, most will be pretty close to expectation. And on a yearly basis it will all be very close to what I accumulated in EV. Fuck Alan.
    "More importantly, mickey thought 8-4 was two games over .500. Argued about it. C'mon, man. Nothing can top that for math expertise. If GWAE ever has you on again, you can be sure I'll be calling in with that gem.'Nuff said." REDIETZ

  12. #52
    Originally Posted by mickeycrimm View Post
    In one of my sessions today I put in a $1000 wager with a 12.9% edge. That's $129 in accumulated EV. My actual result was I cashed out a $750 winner. I experienced some nice positive variance. You might say I got lucky. But I put in thousands of sessions like this per year. Some of those sessions I'm going to underperform, some I'm going to overperform, most will be pretty close to expectation. And on a yearly basis it will all be very close to what I accumulated in EV. Fuck Alan.
    EXACTLY! And anyone that doesn't understand this, is trying not to understand at this point.

  13. #53
    Mickeycrimm and kewlj are you really trying to tell me that the expected value of your next hand changes with the results of your previous hands?

    What if you WON your previous hands? Does that mean your expected value DROPS for future hsnds?

    Sorry but EV doesn't change.

    Typical definition of EV from the web:

    In video poker and blackjack games, the ‘expected value’ is often provided for the player by gaming analysis software. It shows the likely return for any particular play, helping the player calculate their chances and make intelligent decisions which are likely to give them a*payout. Such software is commonly used by poker players and it might also be available within the game’s interface directly. The values shown are averages and might not be entirely representative, but they give the player a good idea of what they might win from each hand they could play.

  14. #54
    Using Alan's thought process someone determined that the casino needed to get rid of all blackjack because the house had a losing day. The house will never return to EXPECTATION. Fuck, the casino overall lost money for the week. "Shut that bitch down", screamed Mendel-IDIOT from a distance.
    MendelFOOL you really are a dumbfuck.

  15. #55
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    Mickeycrimm and kewlj are you really trying to tell me that the expected value of your next hand changes with the results of your previous hands?

    What if you WON your previous hands? Does that mean your expected value DROPS for future hsnds?

    Sorry but EV doesn't change.

    Typical definition of EV from the web:

    In video poker and blackjack games, the ‘expected value’ is often provided for the player by gaming analysis software. It shows the likely return for any particular play, helping the player calculate their chances and make intelligent decisions which are likely to give them a*payout. Such software is commonly used by poker players and it might also be available within the game’s interface directly. The values shown are averages and might not be entirely representative, but they give the player a good idea of what they might win from each hand they could play.
    Alan, again I agree with what you state here. But others are conversing that they are averaging the EV over hundreds of days and multi thousands of plays.

    You are correct, EV doesn't change.

    That is why one must go for the long haul and not worry about one bad day if you were dealt QQ on every hand.

    You guys are smarter than me. I am just interpreting what I am learning.

  16. #56
    Fact: not ONE of the hot-shot "AP's" who post here has ever even supported that they actually play with a picture of them playing along with a picture ID. Heck, we couldn't even get all-talk redietz to put up and info that confirmed anything at all that he boasted about himself.

    And therein lies the reason we get such stupid statements about winning, losing, and the long-run crap from the lot of them. They live in a world of gambling theory, and there is never a reality to any of it. They'll spend days claiming posters who put up proof of big jackpots with accompanying W2G's are really losers because, well, it seems none of them are from the ap crowd. Yet from these ap's we get inundated with stories about EV, edges, and all the "multi-millionaires" they "know" who turn EV phantom bucks into pure gold. Never any proof--just words of theory and hearsay.

    You guys really got a winner in monet. Yesireee!

  17. #57
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    You might think you're due to win because you lost previous hands but you can't change the odds or the expected value of the next hand.
    You are just incredibly stupid. No AP on this forum has ever said one is "due" to hit. That's your own idiocy at work. You know, I had been thinking that you couldn't be that stupid, that you were just pulling our leg. But you really are a dunce. A fucking moron.
    "More importantly, mickey thought 8-4 was two games over .500. Argued about it. C'mon, man. Nothing can top that for math expertise. If GWAE ever has you on again, you can be sure I'll be calling in with that gem.'Nuff said." REDIETZ

  18. #58
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    Mickeycrimm and kewlj are you really trying to tell me that the expected value of your next hand changes with the results of your previous hands?
    This is where your idiocy shines through. Not one AP on here has ever said that the EV of the next hand increases when you lose on the current hand. Not one AP has ever said that EV increases to make up for a losing day. Anyone who believes that is braindead. That is all stupid insane bullshit made up by you, the dunce. Stop with it!! Knock it off!! Quit making up bullshit.

    I now understand why so many women have left you. No one can live with such sheer stupidity on a day by day basis.
    "More importantly, mickey thought 8-4 was two games over .500. Argued about it. C'mon, man. Nothing can top that for math expertise. If GWAE ever has you on again, you can be sure I'll be calling in with that gem.'Nuff said." REDIETZ

  19. #59
    Originally Posted by Rob.Singer View Post
    Fact: not ONE of the hot-shot "AP's" who post here has ever even supported that they actually play with a picture of them playing along with a picture ID. Heck, we couldn't even get all-talk redietz to put up and info that confirmed anything at all that he boasted about himself.

    And therein lies the reason we get such stupid statements about winning, losing, and the long-run crap from the lot of them. They live in a world of gambling theory, and there is never a reality to any of it. They'll spend days claiming posters who put up proof of big jackpots with accompanying W2G's are really losers because, well, it seems none of them are from the ap crowd. Yet from these ap's we get inundated with stories about EV, edges, and all the "multi-millionaires" they "know" who turn EV phantom bucks into pure gold. Never any proof--just words of theory and hearsay.
    The moron is back. Ask your boss for a 25 cent an hour raise. No one is going to doxx theirself for you. If you don't believe any of it who gives a shit. Fuck off and die, bitch.
    "More importantly, mickey thought 8-4 was two games over .500. Argued about it. C'mon, man. Nothing can top that for math expertise. If GWAE ever has you on again, you can be sure I'll be calling in with that gem.'Nuff said." REDIETZ

  20. #60
    Originally Posted by Rob.Singer View Post
    Fact: not ONE of the hot-shot "AP's" who post here has ever even supported that they actually play with a picture of them playing along with a picture ID. Heck, we couldn't even get all-talk redietz to put up and info that confirmed anything at all that he boasted about himself.

    And therein lies the reason we get such stupid statements about winning, losing, and the long-run crap from the lot of them. They live in a world of gambling theory, and there is never a reality to any of it. They'll spend days claiming posters who put up proof of big jackpots with accompanying W2G's are really losers because, well, it seems none of them are from the ap crowd. Yet from these ap's we get inundated with stories about EV, edges, and all the "multi-millionaires" they "know" who turn EV phantom bucks into pure gold. Never any proof--just words of theory and hearsay.

    You guys really got a winner in monet. Yesireee!

    Argentino, you did see my cousin E.R.'s tickets, right? I know I'm not very helpful, but please don't badmouth E.R. He's dead.
    Last edited by redietz; 06-17-2018 at 06:23 AM.

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