Expected Value Discussion

[redietz]

Fact: not ONE of the hot-shot "AP's" who post here has ever even supported that they actually play with a picture of them playing along with a picture ID. Heck, we couldn't even get all-talk redietz to put up and info that confirmed anything at all that he boasted about himself.

And therein lies the reason we get such stupid statements about winning, losing, and the long-run crap from the lot of them. They live in a world of gambling theory, and there is never a reality to any of it. They'll spend days claiming posters who put up proof of big jackpots with accompanying W2G's are really losers because, well, it seems none of them are from the ap crowd. Yet from these ap's we get inundated with stories about EV, edges, and all the "multi-millionaires" they "know" who turn EV phantom bucks into pure gold. Never any proof--just words of theory and hearsay.

The moron is back. Ask your boss for a 25 cent an hour raise. No one is going to doxx theirself for you. If you don't believe any of it who gives a shit. Fuck off and die, bitch.

I'll doxx myself. Let it be me!! Oh wait, I have doxxed myself. Well, then, I'll doxx myself again!! Let it be me.

Or my dear departed cousin, E.R. He won't mind if I doxx him.

And help me out as I'm not familiar with the term. Is the past tense of doxx doxxed or doxed? Spellcheck says doxed. Sometimes, however, spellcheck is wrong.

[Rob.Singer]

Mickeycrimm and kewlj are you really trying to tell me that the expected value of your next hand changes with the results of your previous hands?

This is where your idiocy shines through. Not one AP on here has ever said that the EV of the next hand increases when you lose on the current hand. Not one AP has ever said that EV increases to make up for a losing day. Anyone who believes that is braindead. That is all stupid insane bullshit made up by you, the dunce. Stop with it!! Knock it off!! Quit making up bullshit.

I now understand why so many women have left you. No one can live with such sheer stupidity on a day by day basis.

If there's one thing Alan does to you mickey, it's how he shows how easy it is to bait you into proving how you are still a raging alcoholic who has dated Rosey Palmer more often than redietz spews his silly lies about himself.

But you are right about one thing--no AP would ever come out and say that they expect the EV increases tomorrow to make up for losing today. It's dumb, idiotic, and completely irresponsible. But the fact that you all deny that it's the actual case doesn't do a thing to combat how much you people truly rely on such a thing. The dance you guys do with it is nothing short of trying to show off in your tutu's.

Think about it instead if trying to smash the truth every time it comes up. That phoney kew claims to have lost big, but in the same breath claims he'll "win tomorrow" because of some tiny edge that miraculously will spit out some large mutant winner greater than the size of his loss. Or, he says he KNOWS his tiny edge will give him enuf little day wins to more than make up for his giant loss....while, of course, also KNOWING that he will not face any other big losses along the +EV comeback trail!

So you tell me dopey--does he not think he's "due"....does he not believe in fairy dust? Is he not claiming without saying, that he knows his EV is going to be sky high from here on out?

Yes we all know he's nothing but a joker. But you're the same type of clown when you go around defending such antics.

Gulp.

Wise up.

[Alan Mendelson]

Mickeycrimm and kewlj are you really trying to tell me that the expected value of your next hand changes with the results of your previous hands?

This is where your idiocy shines through. Not one AP on here has ever said that the EV of the next hand increases when you lose on the current hand. Not one AP has ever said that EV increases to make up for a losing day. Anyone who believes that is braindead. That is all stupid insane bullshit made up by you, the dunce. Stop with it!! Knock it off!! Quit making up bullshit.

I now understand why so many women have left you. No one can live with such sheer stupidity on a day by day basis.

Then why did kewlj make a big deal about his EV when losing? THAT is the nonsensical part.

What is the purpose of reporting about all the positive EV hands he played?

All kewlj had to say was something like this: the count was in my favor but I lost. But the count will be in my favor again in the future and I have faith in my skill.

Now that would have been rational. Instead he has to fabricate some new secret formula about having +EV in his pocket that will make him win again.

He created a nonsensical statement and he got caught. You didn't catch him mickeycrimm because you didn't stop long enough to think about what kewlj wrote.

In fact when I first questioned kewlj he ADMITTED it was his own system. And right there I knew it was a nonsensical statement.

Note to keelj: next time simply say what poker players say, "it was a bad beat." We've all had bad beats. It is gambling after all.

[kewlJ]

Mickey is correct. Alan is either dumb as a door or a just a complete troll playing games, playing dumb. I go back and forth between the two. I try to keep in mind that Alan is not an AP, so he doesn't think like an AP. Alan is a degenerative gambler and that is how he thinks. And even worse than that, he despises those that do play with an advantage and win long-term. But that just doesn't excuse all the manipulative actions (blurry pics) and manipulating what was said, and worse yet flat out lying about what was said.

Then why did kewlj make a big deal about his EV when losing? THAT is the nonsensical part.

EV and actual results (wins/losses) are two distinct things. You don't seem to understand that. You mix them up and use them interchangeably. If a player is playing with a 2% advantage, it does not mean he wins 2% (102% return) of every dollar or bet placed. Not in the short term. In the short term there is something called variance, which means short-term results can be above or below this expectation (EV). There is a range of just how much above or below expectation, actual results can be. This range is standard deviation. Most results fall within 1 standard deviation. But it is possible for extreme situation to fall 2 or very rarely 3 stand deviations away from expectation (EV).

So they are not the same, as you keep interchanging them. EV which stands for expected value, is where you would mathematically expect to be based on play. If you are playing a +EV game, as most AP's do, your EV will be positive and if you are playing a =EV game as gamblers like you do, your EV or expectation will be negative.

So stop with this nonsense about EV being money in the bank, or EV bucks and that shit. That is shit YOU made up. No one EVER said that. EV is simply a measurement of where your results should be, based on your play.

One more thing to understand that you don't is that with enough trials, enough play, EV (expectation) and actual results will come together. What that means is after enough play, that variance, while it will still be there becomes smaller and smaller, until it is almost nonexistent. The best way to think about this is many trial (we will call this long-term) overcomes variance.

What is the purpose of reporting about all the positive EV hands he played?

The purpose is that while actual results vary in the short term (again this is called variance which comes from "vary"), EV is a constant measure of expectation.

All kewlj had to say was something like this: the count was in my favor but I lost. But the count will be in my favor again in the future and I have faith in my skill.

If you substitute "math" for where you wrote "skill", that is exactly what KJ said.

Now that would have been rational. Instead he has to fabricate some new secret formula about having +EV in his pocket that will make him win again.

What the fuck are you talking about. This is the shit you make up. Where did I EVER talk about, say anything about EV in my pocket? That is NOT what EV is.

In fact when I first questioned kewlj he ADMITTED it was his own system. And right there I knew it was a nonsensical statement.

Again, what the fuck are you talking about? What alternative universe are you in? Tracking EV is not my own system. EVERY serious AP does so, whether formally or informally. Every serious AP will know where they are in relation to where they should be based on play and advantage.

The bottom line is that I make statements, statements that AP's understand, that you being a non-AP simply don't understand, so you interpret these statements differently, in a way that makes sense to you, I guess. But your interpretation is always far away from what was said or what was meant.....and understood by everyone else.

[mickeycrimm]

Fact: not ONE of the hot-shot "AP's" who post here has ever even supported that they actually play with a picture of them playing along with a picture ID.

How many times did you have a chance to film video of you playing your progression? Did you ever do it? No, you didn't. Have you ever shown your picture ID online? No, you haven't. Here you are saying other people should do it. Why should we do what you refuse to do? Do you have an answer for that?

You are on the record being asked to make a video of you playing. Your answer was you don't want people looking over your shoulder when you are playing.

[Alan Mendelson]

Kewlj you just said it yourself. Read what you just wrote:

EV and actual results (wins/losses) are two distinct things.

Yes. Yes. Yes.

So when you tried to explain your $8500 loss by saying you had your best EV day ever you made a nonsensical post.

You created your own controversy.

And frankly after reading about you and your Qfit drama I understand. You can't understand what you say.

[kewlJ]

Kewlj you just said it yourself. Read what you just wrote:

EV and actual results (wins/losses) are two distinct things.

Yes. Yes. Yes.

So when you tried to explain your $8500 loss by saying you had your best EV day ever you made a nonsensical post.

You created your own controversy.

And frankly after reading about you and your Qfit drama I understand. You can't understand what you say.

I give up, Alan. I really do. Again, you are either dense as a door, or trolling/playing games and I can't win either way.

[Alan Mendelson]

I hope you do give up. Give up your fight with Qfit and the Wizard too. Give it all up. As long as you put yourself in the center of the universe you will never understand that you said it wrong.

Frankly people who excel in math skills tend to lack in verbal skills and vice versa. This is why standardized tests such as SATs are divided.

I'm sure you're very smart in math kewlj but you need to step back and give your verbal statements and arguments a second look.

Eddie came out and expressed confusion about it and even offered the poker bad beat analogy and I applaud him for it.

You're a smart guy kewlj but try to understand that what you write and what you think it means are open to different interpretation.

Yes, you want to play with the best EV. Yes you played with +EV but you lost. THAT WAS THE END OF IT RIGHT THERE.

As you told us you continued to play with the best EV and you won in the future. Good. That's how it should be when you have an edge. But when you don't it's a "bad beat" and that's what happens in gambling.

[kewlJ]

I hope you do give up. Give up your fight with Qfit and the Wizard too. Give it all up. As long as you put yourself in the center of the universe you will never understand that you said it wrong.

Frankly people who excel in math skills tend to lack in verbal skills and vice versa. This is why standardized tests such as SATs are divided.

I'm sure you're very smart in math kewlj but you need to step back and give your verbal statements and arguments a second look.

Eddie came out and expressed confusion about it and even offered the poker bad beat analogy and I applaud him for it.

You're a smart guy kewlj but try to understand that what you write and what you think it means are open to different interpretation.

Yes, you want to play with the best EV. Yes you played with +EV but you lost. THAT WAS THE END OF IT RIGHT THERE.

As you told us you continued to play with the best EV and you won in the future. Good. That's how it should be when you have an edge. But when you don't it's a "bad beat" and that's what happens in gambling.

Well thank you for the compliment that you think I am smart. I really am not though. I am not college educated, didn't have that opportunity as I ended my high school days living in a homeless shelter. I always thought I might get back to that, but didn't. Life can be funny like that.

And I certainly do not excel in math. I think I have average math skills, maybe a little above average for the general population, but well below average of the gambling and especially AP communities that I participate at. I am just in awe of the mathematical abilities of guys, like Michael Shackleford, Mickey Crimm, Axelwolf, Monet, and guys who figure things out that I never could and even when they explain it, I still am lost and have no clue. We have that in the blackjack side of AP as well, with guys like Don Schlesinger and QFIT, who I have other issues with. What I wouldn't give to have a tenth of their mathematical ability.

I do think I have a pretty good knowledge of blackjack, but that is no accident. Blackjack is my life. I have worked hard to learn as much as I could and that includes the mathematical concepts. And I now have 14+ years of my own personal experiences as a professional player to draw on as well.

And you are correct, expressing myself is a major weakness of mine. Maybe I haven't stated that here, but on various forums I have repeatedly acknowledged that is probably one of my greatest weaknesses. I do the best I can.

But I don't believe our problem is that you don't understand what I am saying or trying to say. You intentionally don't want to understand and go out of your way to not understand or at least pretend you don't understand.

[Alan Mendelson]

Kewlj its really simple and you said it yourself:

EV and actual results (wins/losses) are two distinct things.

If you hadn't made the statement connecting your best day of +EV along with your $8500 loss none of this would have happened.

You misspoke. End of discussion.

[mickeycrimm]

Kewlj its really simple and you said it yourself:

EV and actual results (wins/losses) are two distinct things.

If you hadn't made the statement connecting your best day of +EV along with your $8500 loss none of this would have happened.

You misspoke. End of discussion.

You misinterpreted. End of discussion.

[kewlJ]

Kewlj its really simple and you said it yourself:

EV and actual results (wins/losses) are two distinct things.

If you hadn't made the statement connecting your best day of +EV along with your $8500 loss none of this would have happened.

You misspoke. End of discussion.

Alan, might I suggest you go back and read the thread. You are going to find that you are not remembering things they way they occurred or what was really said, just like you admitted to a few days ago.

Here is how it went down. The thread was called My start to 2018. It started out I discussed opening the year with 5 winning days. All pretty small winning days. So then I gave an update that I had a losing day. A losing day of $8500 or $8800, I forget which. The winning days and this losing day were all insignificant. It was just a fun observation. And BTW an $8500 winning or losing day is not some big deal. Both happen regularly. That is just variance. $8500 is within normal standard deviation for my level of play. Yeah, just slightly on the high end, but normal. Statistically completely normal.

So there was no mention of EV in that post.

So you responded with your complete nonsense about stop-limits, saying I should have stopped playing. Stop limits are complete voodoo concepts.

So after several days, actually almost a week of you going on idiotically about stop limits, I tried to explain to you why stop limits are nonsense. That stop limits are a product designed to manipulate short-term results, but short term results really have no significance what-so-ever. What matters is the longterm and we get there by playing and continuing to play through short-term swings.

THIS, 6-7 days later is when I mentioned EV, which is a measurement of your play....not your wins or losses (actual results). The more you play the faster you get to the long-term where these short term swings (wins/losses) have no meaning. It is at that point that the math takes over and your results will reflect expectation.

So the day in question, I kept playing. And kept accumulating EV, because that small variance (8500 loss) just didn't matter. What matters is accumulating EV. And it so happens that day was a good day accumulating EV. It so happens I had several good heads-up opportunities, which is strong positive EV. That is my goal every day. Some days I encounter good conditions and rack up strong EV and other days, I don't. That was a good day EV-wise. That's all I said.

Two separate things. I lost $8500 or $8800 or whatever it was, but had a good day EV-wise. I never said losing $8500 was good. I said I had a strong day racking up EV, despite that my actual results were a loss for the day.

So stop with all this crap. It is simply a matter of Long-term thinking vs short-term thinking. AP's deal with the long-term. If we play a +EV game, we will win in the long-term despite some short-term (day) losses. And EV is a way to measure that longterm progress. To measure just where expectation is and results will eventually match up with (longterm).

I and all AP's think longterm. YOU think short-term. I and other AP's have losing days but winning years. YOU have winning days, but losing years.

Again, I wonder who knows what the fuck they are talking about?

[Alan Mendelson]

Good luck kewlj. Why don't you and mickeycrimm finish high school.

[kewlJ]

Good luck kewlj. Why don't you and mickeycrimm finish high school.

I graduated High School in 2001. Just another case of you hearing what you want to hear and saying whatever the fuck you want regardless of whether it is the truth.

[Alan Mendelson]

My error. I forgot they don't teach common sense in high school.

After two years you still haven't dropped the Qfit drama. And twice now you've separated EV from actual results but you can't drop this argument either.

I, however, have common sense. I won't argue any longer. And one day you'll realize why... because you said it:

EV and actual results (wins/losses) are two distinct things.

[regnis]

So I am always trying to be the voice of reason. If Kewl has an EV of 1.02 on every hand of blackjack, and he played 2000 hands today, how does that change anything next Thursday. Doesn't he still have an EV of 1.02 on every hand next Thursday? He doesn't have an EV of 1.08 just because he played 2000 hands today.

Each and every hand, whether it is the first hand or the 100th hand has an EV of 1.02. I realize this is an oversimplification as the EV changes with the count. But for purposes of this discussion, how did playing those 2000 hands change his EV on the 10,000th hand?

[MisterV]

Sure, it's "expectation" vs. "results achieved."

[mickeycrimm]

So I am always trying to be the voice of reason. If Kewl has an EV of 1.02 on every hand of blackjack, and he played 2000 hands today, how does that change anything next Thursday. Doesn't he still have an EV of 1.02 on every hand next Thursday? He doesn't have an EV of 1.08 just because he played 2000 hands today.

Each and every hand, whether it is the first hand or the 100th hand has an EV of 1.02. I realize this is an oversimplification as the EV changes with the count. But for purposes of this discussion, how did playing those 2000 hands change his EV on the 10,000th hand?

For a constant EV like 1.02 it is the same next thursday as it is today. The EV of 1.02 is the same on the 10,000th hand as it is on the 100th hand. I don't know how you guys got that we are saying the EV changes for the better when you have a losing day. It doesn't and neither one of us said that it does. There is a well known false doctrine in gambling called "maturity of chances." It's been around a lot longer than we have. Kj and I are both aware of it and know it's a false doctrine. Alan and you are the ones pushing it, not us. Neither one of us said the EV changes for the better after a loss. You guys came up with that and are trying to say that we said it. Please give a quote then. But you can't because neither one of us ever said it.

If you guys are going to insist that we did say it then put up the quote, the exact quote, nothing else. But I'll say it again. We never said anything like that so you will never find a quote.

Alan is the one that came up with the maturity of chances crap and insists that we are the ones that did. NO WE DIDN'T. ALAN DID. IT'S A FALSE ALLEGATION. Alan just makes up shit and says someone else made it up. He's maddening with that bullshit. He should be tarred and feathered for it.

[AxelWolf]

Alan,

Other than the wacky strategy changes, isn't Rob Singers entier VP system based on past wins and losses as to why he moves up and down in denominations?

Have you called him out on that?

IIRC JK said he had his best day ever, AS FAR AS HIS EV GOES. I took that to mean he had good value regarding the size of his bets, the high positive counts, and the time he put in. He has faith that if he keeps putting himself in that situation he will eventually do well.

Didnt you say you have a pro BJ friend who you have faith in? Why don't you invite him here and see if he understands what KJ was saying and perhaps he can also go on record concering ones abillity to count 2 tables at once.

[Alan Mendelson]

Read this carefully mickeycrimm because this is the post by kewlj that started it all. Pay very close attention to his words "accumulated EV" which means hands previously played would impact future results. That's plain English,buddy. Now read it:

Alan, I'm going to try one more approach. Every round I play has an expected value amount (EV). At the end of the year, I have a total EV amount for all hands plays (cumulative EV). And by the end of the year, which represents "the long run" or long term, my actual results will be pretty close to accumulated EV. I have had one outlier year significantly below EV and one outlier year significantly above, but generally actual results are pretty close to accumulated EV.

So the goal is to play as many rounds as possible, accumulating as much EV as possible. Now in the process, actual results will go up and down like the stock market, but the overall trend (longterm) is upward. So quitting when having a "bad day", all that does is stifle the overall total EV. In other words....quitting early based on some artificial goal or target, cost me money.

It really boils down to long-term vs short-term thinking. YOU are thinking about short-term results. AP's are looking at long-term results. Quitting to preserve some sort of artificial short time goal, would be like a baseball team with a goal of being ahead after the second inning. That is NOT what matters. What matters is the score after 9 innings.

Mickeycrimm why would Kewlj refer to "accumulated EV" if he didn't mean that the EV played previously didn't impact future results.

Don't blame me for what kewlj wrote or for what he started.