Expected Value Discussion

[Alan Mendelson]

Alan,

Other than the wacky strategy changes, isn't Rob Singers entier VP system based on past wins and losses as to why he moves up and down in denominations?

Have you called him out on that?

IIRC JK said he had his best day ever, AS FAR AS HIS EV GOES. I took that to mean he had good value regarding the size of his bets, the high positive counts, and the time he put in. He has faith that if he keeps putting himself in that situation he will eventually do well.

Didnt you say you have a pro BJ friend who you have faith in? Why don't you invite him here and see if he understands what KJ was saying and perhaps he can also go on record concering ones abillity to count 2 tables at once.

Axel I don't follow or agree with Rob's strategy and I don't play his way and I've said it on this forum. Does that answer your question?

[redietz]

Read this carefully mickeycrimm because this is the post by kewlj that started it all. Pay very close attention to his words "accumulated EV" which means hands previously played would impact future results. That's plain English,buddy. Now read it:

Alan, I'm going to try one more approach. Every round I play has an expected value amount (EV). At the end of the year, I have a total EV amount for all hands plays (cumulative EV). And by the end of the year, which represents "the long run" or long term, my actual results will be pretty close to accumulated EV. I have had one outlier year significantly below EV and one outlier year significantly above, but generally actual results are pretty close to accumulated EV.

So the goal is to play as many rounds as possible, accumulating as much EV as possible. Now in the process, actual results will go up and down like the stock market, but the overall trend (longterm) is upward. So quitting when having a "bad day", all that does is stifle the overall total EV. In other words....quitting early based on some artificial goal or target, cost me money.

It really boils down to long-term vs short-term thinking. YOU are thinking about short-term results. AP's are looking at long-term results. Quitting to preserve some sort of artificial short time goal, would be like a baseball team with a goal of being ahead after the second inning. That is NOT what matters. What matters is the score after 9 innings.

Mickeycrimm why would Kewlj refer to "accumulated EV" if he didn't mean that the EV played previously didn't impact future results.

Don't blame me for what kewlj wrote or for what he started.

Okay, I read this carefully. I try to stay out of this mainly because I don't track EV projections and compare them to ongoing results or anything like that.

But I am an English (writing option) major, I have had gambling articles edited and published, and I have no idea why Mr. Mendelson, or anyone, would think the two words "accumulated EV" implies "that the EV previously played would impact future results." That's non-sequitur stuff. It doesn't make sense to deduce the latter from the former.

It just does not follow. It doesn't follow logically, or by definition, or by any math terminology of which I'm aware.

I understood the gist of what kewlJ was saying. Basically, tracking EV is the more accurate way to understand if you're doing the proper things, as opposed to tracking your recent bankroll. That's obvious. How can anyone argue with that?

Sports isn't amenable to pure math analysis, so I do not do that stuff. Video poker and blackjack are solved games; they are amenable to it. What the living hell is the confusion?

KJ is using the phrase "accumulated EV" as referencing the point-to-date of a tracking system, not a physical bank account. Saying "I played the poker hands properly and lost my ass on every one" does not imply "I am owed wins." One doesn't follow the other.

As a point of reference, I think the dice-in-a-cup nonsense was poorly written trickeration purposefully trying to provoke an "improper answer," so I was halfway on Mr. Mendelson's side on that one. Language meant to confuse is bad writing.

I wasn't confused with the "accumulated EV" phrase. I'm not sure anyone should be. Now it's possible some people would read it incorrectly, so then it would be the duty of an editor to clean it up. But I wouldn't be that editor, while I would take a hammer to the dice-in-a-cup writing.

[AxelWolf]

Alan,

Other than the wacky strategy changes, isn't Rob Singers entier VP system based on past wins and losses as to why he moves up and down in denominations?

Have you called him out on that?

IIRC JK said he had his best day ever, AS FAR AS HIS EV GOES. I took that to mean he had good value regarding the size of his bets, the high positive counts, and the time he put in. He has faith that if he keeps putting himself in that situation he will eventually do well.

Didnt you say you have a pro BJ friend who you have faith in? Why don't you invite him here and see if he understands what KJ was saying and perhaps he can also go on record concering ones abillity to count 2 tables at once.

Axel I don't follow or agree with Rob's strategy and I don't play his way and I've said it on this forum. Does that answer your question?

Good, then you should debunk it and call him out on it every chance you get.

His system is actully dangerous to people financially.

Do you/have you posted up articles for him on one of your websites? Doing so might lend him some unwarranted credibility with people who don't know any better. Even if his articles have nothing to do with his system.

[Alan Mendelson]

Really redietz? You -- a writer and English major -- can't differentiate between "accumulated EV" and what the rest of us know to be as the EV of each bet? Shame on you.

[Alan Mendelson]

Alan,

Other than the wacky strategy changes, isn't Rob Singers entier VP system based on past wins and losses as to why he moves up and down in denominations?

Have you called him out on that?

IIRC JK said he had his best day ever, AS FAR AS HIS EV GOES. I took that to mean he had good value regarding the size of his bets, the high positive counts, and the time he put in. He has faith that if he keeps putting himself in that situation he will eventually do well.

Didnt you say you have a pro BJ friend who you have faith in? Why don't you invite him here and see if he understands what KJ was saying and perhaps he can also go on record concering ones abillity to count 2 tables at once.

Axel I don't follow or agree with Rob's strategy and I don't play his way and I've said it on this forum. Does that answer your question?

Good, then you should debunk it and call him out on it every chance you get.

His system is actully dangerous to people financially.

Do you/have you posted up articles for him on one of your websites? Doing so might lend him some unwarranted credibility with people who don't know any better. Even if his articles have nothing to do with his system.

My website articles deal with his special plays and some of his off the wall statements about rigged machines. I didn't know about his other strategies until he started posting about them here.

I also avoided discussions about abortion, Hillary Clinton,.the Iran nuclear deal and other controversial issues. Do you expect me to comment about those too?

[Alan Mendelson]

Redietz I know how to resolve this right now. Why don't YOU ask kewlj what he meant by "accumulated EV"?

[redietz]

Really redietz? You -- a writer and English major -- can't differentiate between "accumulated EV" and what the rest of us know to be as the EV of each bet? Shame on you.

I have no idea what you're talking about. You've decided "accumulated EV" means something specific that I don't think it means. It's a tracking system, not a bank.

I'm going to take a stab at why one would use EV tracking as opposed to results tracking, even though I don't do it. As a layman regarding video poker and blackjack, I could be completely wrong, so I would appreciate APs correcting me (with a hammer if necessary).

The kewlJ reference was to a point-to-date in a tracking system. Keeping that tracking system day-to-day would be useful if one were trying to decide if games were deteriorating or getting better, or if certain locations were better or worse, and whether opportunities were seasonal or date dependent in other ways. The EV tracking would be a better way than actual results to track short-term, because if you're trying to analyze different locations and seasonality, you're probably not going to accumulate a lot of results data fast enough.

[Alan Mendelson]

Redietz are you having trouble with the word accumulated?

verb
past tense: accumulated; past participle: accumulated
gather together or acquire an increasing number or quantity of.
"investigators have yet to accumulate enough evidence"

Now ask him why he said accumulated instead of just using EV.

[MisterV]

I am an English (writing option) major, I have had gambling articles edited and published

Well then sir, this might just be your lucky day.

The owners of WoV are advertising for someone with just those skills.

see:

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/info...riters-needed/

[mickeycrimm]

[QUOTE=Rob.Singer;66575]

No AP would ever come out and say that they expect the EV increases tomorrow to make up for losing today. It's dumb, idiotic, and completely irresponsible.

You are right. No AP would ever say that. Would you please explain that to Mendelstupid.

[Alan Mendelson]

Oh mickeycrimm perhaps YOU need to ask kewlj what he meant by "accumulated EV."

[mickeycrimm]

Read this carefully mickeycrimm because this is the post by kewlj that started it all. Pay very close attention to his words "accumulated EV" which means hands previously played would impact future results. That's plain English,buddy. Now read it:

Alan, I'm going to try one more approach. Every round I play has an expected value amount (EV). At the end of the year, I have a total EV amount for all hands plays (cumulative EV). And by the end of the year, which represents "the long run" or long term, my actual results will be pretty close to accumulated EV. I have had one outlier year significantly below EV and one outlier year significantly above, but generally actual results are pretty close to accumulated EV.

So the goal is to play as many rounds as possible, accumulating as much EV as possible. Now in the process, actual results will go up and down like the stock market, but the overall trend (longterm) is upward. So quitting when having a "bad day", all that does is stifle the overall total EV. In other words....quitting early based on some artificial goal or target, cost me money.

It really boils down to long-term vs short-term thinking. YOU are thinking about short-term results. AP's are looking at long-term results. Quitting to preserve some sort of artificial short time goal, would be like a baseball team with a goal of being ahead after the second inning. That is NOT what matters. What matters is the score after 9 innings.

Mickeycrimm why would Kewlj refer to "accumulated EV" if he didn't mean that the EV played previously didn't impact future results.

Don't blame me for what kewlj wrote or for what he started.

I read KJ's post here very carefully and I can't find a single solitary sentence "which means hands previously played would impact future results." That is YOUR interpretation. A very STUPID interpretation. Only a DUNCE would make such an interpretation.

[mickeycrimm]

Really redietz? You -- a writer and English major -- can't differentiate between "accumulated EV" and what the rest of us know to be as the EV of each bet? Shame on you.

Once again proving your sheer stupidity.

[Alan Mendelson]

Mickeycrimm what is meant by accumulated? Why did kewlj use the term "accumulated EV"?

And why if he wasn't accumulating EV would he have written this:

" Whether or not I win or lose for that day isn't what determines a successful day. Accumulating EV is. And that particular day that you are obsessing on ($8800 loss) happens to be my best day of the year. I accumulated more EV that day so far this year and in the end that will translate into actual win."

KEWLJ, WHY DID YOU USE THE WORD ACCUMULATED?

[regnis]

In law, and V can probably better explain it, when there is an ambiguity in some verbiage it is given its simplest clearest meaning.

Here the term accumulated was used, implying that the EV was being accumulated for some future use. I keep asking what that future use might be since your EV is still the same on each and every hand. So what exactly is accumulated EV and what can I do with it? If it was just a bad use of the word than just say so. Otherwise please tell me what I can do with all that accumulated EV.

[mickeycrimm]

In law, and V can probably better explain it, when there is an ambiguity in some verbiage it is given its simplest clearest meaning.

Here the term accumulated was used, implying that the EV was being accumulated for some future use. I keep asking what that future use might be since your EV is still the same on each and every hand. So what exactly is accumulated EV and what can I do with it? If it was just a bad use of the word than just say so. Otherwise please tell me what I can do with all that accumulated EV.

I personally stick the money I make from accumulated EV in the bank. It is you and Mendelstupid that take a past tense word "accumulated" and apply it to the future. I don't do that and neither does KJ.

[kewlJ]

Here the term accumulated was used, implying that the EV was being accumulated for some future use.

What? Future use? what are you talking about?

This just isn't that complicated.

First I will take it out of blackjack and go to video poker which I hope Alan understands better.

So say I go out today and find a VP machine with a 102% payback. I play 100 rounds at $1 denomination ($5/round) for $500. The expected return would be $510, EV of $10 (2% of $500). So there is $10 EV.

So I go to a second casino and do the same thing except I play 200 rounds at casino #2. EV for that second casino is $20 (2% of $1000)

So my accumulated EV for the day is $30. I add that to what ever the running total is for the year (all the days before) and I have a new "accumulated EV" total for the year. It's THAT simple.

Now my results for that day at those 2 casinos are not likely to be + $30. The actual results will be within a range, from a losing amount to a winning amount. That range is called standard deviation.

Whether I won a few hundred for that day or lost a few hundred for that day, is insignificant. The results are within the normal standard deviation. But with enough trials, enough days (longterm), actual results and "accumulated EV" with come together and be pretty close. It has to mathematically. It just isn't that complicated.

[Alan Mendelson]

Aren't you talking about accumulated profits?
EV is a forecasted return before you make the bet.

I think you're the one who made the whole thing complicated.

But when you were losing $8800 you had no profits and you still talked about accumulated EV.

"Whether or not I win or lose for that day isn't what determines a successful day. Accumulating EV is. And that particular day that you are obsessing on ($8800 loss) happens to be my best day of the year. I accumulated more EV that day so far this year and in the end that will translate into actual win."

Sorry but it's a lot of doubletalk.

I think you were trying to impress us with a bunch of two dollar words... and you failed.

Oh, and tell your shoeshine boy Crimm he doesn't impress me either.

[RS__]

I don’t know why, but I was expecting and kinda hoping for an interesting discussion.....not whatever this is.

I wouldn’t put any stock into what Alan’s “AP friends” or whatever say blindly. IIRC, they sound like they’re playing for nickels and dimes and don’t really know what they’re doing.

[kewlJ]

Aren't you talking about accumulated profits?

OMG....NO, I am NOT talking about accumulated profits. YOU continue to mix up profits or actual results with EV. They are NOT interchangeable. I have told you many times they are two separate distinct things. Maybe it will help if I post records of my play and results for that period. It will take me a few minutes as I have to transfer from the program I use and delete out casino names and misc comments about each session (mostly heat and any unusual developments that I want to remind myself on my next visit to that casino)

I think you were trying to impress us with a bunch of two dollar words... and you failed.

Not at all. I tried to make it as simple as possible and that is why all but 2, maybe 1.5 people seem to understand what I am saying. You being one of those 1.5 or 2, I would say it is you who have failed....failed to understand a fairly simple concept.

Oh, and tell your shoeshine boy Crimm he doesn't impress me either.

Don't go low with me Alan. That is directly from the Rob Singer Playbook. Divert and attack. If you have a problem with Mickey Crimm, YOU tell him. That is between you and he. Don't drag me into it. But frankly, you SHOULD be impressed with Mickey in regards to this thread. EVERYTHING he has said is spot on.