Expected Value Discussion

[kewlJ]

Doc removed


Ok, see column 4, EV for each session. When you add them up, you get the accumulated EV (column 5). Since these results start on January 1 for the first 15 days of January, which is the period we were talking about, it was nice and easy. EV starts at zero (new year) and progresses up to $3244, at the end of January 15.

Now actual results flip flop all over the place, from a high of + $9212.50 on 1/04/18 to a low of - $2087.50 on 1/11/18. That is variance, and a completely normal range, known as standard deviation.

So while actual results bounce around up and down (like the stock market), EV is a steady climb of expectation and given enough trials (longterm), accumulated EV and actual results will come together. Just as mine did by 1/15/18. Now sometimes this bouncing around, gets more extreme and actual results can be further above or below expectation, and may take longer to get back in line, sometimes months instead of weeks, like in this case. BUT they always come back in line. ALWAYS.

So accumulated EV is a way to measure where you really are, expectation wise. Because results will either catch up to expectation or come back to expectation. In this 15 day period, consisting of only 11 playing days, results both came back to expectation when they were running well above and came up to expectation when they were running behind, so this is a good example.

It's expectation, or accumulated EV that is the real measure of where you are.

[kewlJ]

Oh and BTW, 1/08/18. Lost $8775, but had accumulated EV of $476, which is about 50% above my daily average for expectation or accumulated EV. So it was a good day for EV despite the loss. That's all I said. I didn't say it was good that I lost.

And it is not unusual that bigger winning AND losing days are also strong EV days. That means, I found good conditions, and got a lot of play in and likely had many max bet opportunities, which is what leads to these bigger swings. If you win those max bets opportunities, you likely will win big and if you lose those max bet opportunities, you will lose big.


This is it, Alan, This is the best I can do. If you can't understand this and come back with something stupid as you always do, I am forever done with you, forever labeling you a useless troll. No more benefit of doubt.

[redietz]

Oh and BTW, 1/08/18. Lost $8775, but had accumulated EV of $476, which is about 50% above my daily average for expectation or accumulated EV. So it was a good day for EV despite the loss. That's all I said. I didn't say it was good that I lost.

And it is not unusual that bigger winning AND losing days are also strong EV days. That means, I found good conditions, and got a lot of play in and likely had many max bet opportunities, which is what leads to these bigger swings. If you win those max bets opportunities, you likely will win big and if you lose those max bet opportunities, you will lose big.


This is it, Alan, This is the best I can do. If you can't understand this and come back with something stupid as you always do, I am forever done with you, forever labeling you a useless troll. No more benefit of doubt.

So I take it, even though I don't really know what I'm talking about, that my interpretation of a point-to-date tracking system was spot on?

The problem, of course, is that if you're doing the opposite (playing negative EV games), if you use something like this tracker, it's hard to escape the fact that you're the casino's bitch. It becomes pretty obvious. Maybe best to argue that this kind of tracking isn't a real thing.

If I didn't know better, I'd say casino ownership is pulling the strings of some posters. I could see that, as 40 years of negative EV can lead to convenient bedfellows.

[mickeycrimm]

I use EV (expected value) to determine if I want to sit down on a play or not. Most of my plays have a seat time of 40 minutes or less. These days I try to keep the seat time worth $100 per hour or more. So if I find a five-spot keno progressive showing a positive expectation of $80 and I know that on turbo speed it plays at 40 games per minute I'm looking at about 40 minutes average seat time because the frequency of hitting the solid five is 1551. I divide $80 by 2 then multiply by 3 to get an hourly rate of $120. That means the play is a go. I do this because I know there are other plays waiting on me and I dont want to waste my time on a low earner.

I've played off multi-thousands of these kind of plays in the past ten years. With 1551 being the cycle I've hit the five-spot on the first game and I've gone 7500 games to hit it. I've hit it in a quarter cycle hundreds of time, half cycle hundreds of time, 1 cycle hundreds of time, 1.5 cycles hundreds of times, 2 cycle hundreds of times, 3 cycles dozens of times, 4 cycles dozens of time, and I've been stretched out to over 5 cycles a few times. But when I look at the results thru hundreds of plays the average is about 1 cycle per play.

It's the same thing with the money fluctuations. The average cost to run 1 cycle is $150. When I hit the five-spot early I make more than the $80 in expectation. When I hit it late I make less than the $80 expectation. If I hit it way late I lose money on the play.

But thru 200 hundred plays, which is the long term on this play, I've accumulated about $16,000 in EV. The results moneywise are always within $1000 either way of the $16,000 accumulated EV.

[Alan Mendelson]

Kewlj I'm sorry but you have caused the confusion because you are using EV interchangeably and you've created your own definition in doing so. The key to effective communication is to use words that everyone understands and do not confuse. If I used "peanut butter" to describe a royal flush and "saltine" to describe an ace our discussion would go nowhere.

This is about EV so let's use the definition of EV, and not your definition:

Expected Value

Expected value is how much you can expect to lose (negative) or win (positive) from a bet. For example the expected value in American double-zero roulette is -5.26%. That means you can expect to lose 5.26% of every dollar you bet.

That's from the Wizard of Odds

You keep referring to EV also as profits and losses and you say EV has a range. Regnis and others have told you EV is predetermined based on the game and odds. You ignore this. This is a roadblock for understanding.

You can't say things like this:

"EV starts at zero (new year) and progresses up to $3244, at the end of January 15." You can't say it because EV is a defined return and doesn't change on the same game.

If you want to be a better communicator use the definitions that are accepted. Otherwise it is doubletalk. EV is not the result of a bet, it is a forecasted value before the bet is made.

[mickeycrimm]

Kewlj I'm sorry but you have caused the confusion because you are using EV interchangeably and you've created your own definition in doing so. The key to effective communication is to use words that everyone understands and do not confuse. If I used "peanut butter" to describe a royal flush and "saltine" to describe an ace our discussion would go nowhere.

This is about EV so let's use the definition of EV, and not your definition:

Expected Value

Expected value is how much you can expect to lose (negative) or win (positive) from a bet. For example the expected value in American double-zero roulette is -5.26%. That means you can expect to lose 5.26% of every dollar you bet.

That's from the Wizard of Odds

You keep referring to EV also as profits and losses and you say EV has a range. Regnis and others have told you EV is predetermined based on the game and odds. You ignore this. This is a roadblock for understanding.

You can't say things like this:

"EV starts at zero (new year) and progresses up to $3244, at the end of January 15." You can't say it because EV is a defined return and doesn't change on the same game.

If you want to be a better communicator use the definitions that are accepted. Otherwise it is doubletalk. EV is not the result of a bet, it is a forecasted value before the bet is made.

I have exactly zero problem interpreting KJ's analysis. I don't think most others do either. The problem is your continual misinterpretation of everything. It's never ending. Since you have so little comprehension you can write a post like you did above about virtually anything that gets posted here. It's whats so maddening about you.

[Alan Mendelson]

Mickeycrimm maybe you can interpret kewlj because you speak the same "AP speak" he does. But the rest of the world doesn't.

Do you want to communicate with the rest of the world? Then use a language the rest of the world understands.

I'm not alone. Eddie was the first to go public here to say he didn't understand. Regnis followed. That's three of us, at least. Something is wrong with the message when one third of the active forum members question the wording.

Now call me stupid if you want or use your bigoted anti semite slur if you want, but this is the real situation.

I suggest kewlj come up with some different terminology if he wants to get his message across.

The bottom line is the rest of us should not have to interpret anything. It should be readily understandable.

[mickeycrimm]

Mickeycrimm maybe you can interpret kewlj because you speak the same "AP speak" he does. But the rest of the world doesn't.

Do you want to communicate with the rest of the world? Then use a language the rest of the world understands.

I'm not alone. Eddie was the first to go public here to say he didn't understand. Regnis followed. That's three of us, at least. Something is wrong with the message when one third of the active forum members question the wording.

Now call me stupid if you want or use your bigoted anti semite slur if you want, but this is the real situation.

I suggest kewlj come up with some different terminology if he wants to get his message across.

The bottom line is the rest of us should not have to interpret anything. It should be readily understandable.

You can pull that shit on anyone or anything. It's time to take responsibility for your own ineptitude.

[Alan Mendelson]

Mickeycrimm you have a real problem. I'm sorry.

[mickeycrimm]

Mickeycrimm you have a real problem. I'm sorry.

Yes, you are a sorry person.

[Alan Mendelson]

I'm hoping kewlj is more reasonable and smarter than you mickeycrimm. Kewlj could indeed have a very smart methodology that only needs it's language tweaked to be understood. I'm hoping he comes through.

[kewlJ]

The problem, of course, is that if you're doing the opposite (playing negative EV games), if you use something like this tracker, it's hard to escape the fact that you're the casino's bitch. It becomes pretty obvious. Maybe best to argue that this kind of tracking isn't a real thing.

I can't comment on what someone playing -EV situations might do or think. I really can't. I have no experience with that. None. I never played negative EV games. Never gambled. There are people like my late partner, who were -EV players and turned themselves into +EV players (I like to think I helped quite a bit in this case). But I am not one of those people. I never had any interest in gambling before I learned card counting and +EV play.

I suppose if you are a -EV player, you don't want to see results like tracking by EV. I suspect there is a lot of lying to yourself involved and seeing those results would interfere with that.

I use EV (expected value) to determine if I want to sit down on a play or not.

Yeah, I do that too with blackjack. I have a dear friend, Norm Wattenberger , who is author of great blackjack software (QFIT products) that does that for me. This is how I know what each different game (by # decks, penetration, rules) is worth to me per round, and whether I am even interested in playing that particular game and conditions.

[kewlJ]

Alan, you are the one double talking and saying things that were never said. Prime example is that "EV has a range". I never frigging said anything like that. EV is constant, actual results have a range (standard deviation).

You have done this since day 1 that I have interacted with you, and whether it's a game or because of your degenerative gambler mindset you simply cannot understand these concepts, doesn't even matter to me. My purpose here is not to try to break down your wall and teach you something you clearly have no interest in learning. Your interest is to argue.

And by the way Alan, you keep saying my definition. Accumulated EV is not my concept. Like most things I do and employ, they were learned from other AP's. Almost all serious AP's engage in some form of tracking their EV to determine how their actual results measure up at any given time against expectation. Maybe they don't call it "accumulated EV". Maybe they have some other term for it or have no term for it, but all serious AP's do this.

Again this is not my definition. While I can't remember where every concept or term I learned and now employ or incorporate into my play came from and give credit, everything came from some BJ author or member of a blackjack site that has contributed to my blackjack education.

[kewlJ]

Alan here is what I think is really going on here. You have contempt for AP's which we all know and I think everyone acknowledges but you. I think Dan Druff, who remains silent on almost everything even chimed in on that one time.

So I come along, a guy in my mid 30's, who has supported myself from card counting for, now in my 15th year. Made nearly a million dollars from card counting, over a million total AP, and you immediately had double contempt for me, because I have had some success at an early age. You think of me as a kid, and have referred to me in that manner, trying to do so in an unflattering way. So every time I say something, that you as a non-AP, non-card counter, are not familiar with, or haven't heard of other people doing, you say to yourself "this kid doesn't know what he is talking about" and immediately try to challenge and discredit me.

You will deny this, but it is true and I think anyone being objective sees it. You did it with tracking 2 tables. You have done in with "accumulated EV". You have done it a couple other times that aren't coming to mind right now. Double contempt. Because I am a successful (at my level of play) card counter / AP and because I am young by your standards. Get over it Alan. You have chosen your path in life and your path gambling-wise. You claim you enjoy being a losing player. So why all the contempt for those of us that enjoy and work hard at winning?

[Alan Mendelson]

I'm not going to argue with you anymore because we are obviously speaking different languages... the same way you are speaking different languages over the WOV controversy about Qfit.

You say that EV doesn't have a range? Okay I'm glad you said that but above you posted:

"EV starts at zero (new year) and progresses up to $3244, at the end of January 15."

Is that not a range?

I'm guessing you really didn't mean to say EV and you meant to say something else. Well that's the problem. I don't understand you. Eddie doesn't understand. Regnis doesn't understand. Apparently the Wizard doesn't understand either in your fight over Qfit.

Good luck.

[regnis]

Skip the double talk. What can I do with the accumulated EV. My odds of winning the next hand haven't changed at all. So what can I do with it? What good is it? Or does it just mean I played a lot of hands? I played a lot of hands so I accumulated a lot of EV. OK---now what? What do I do with it? How does it help me on the next hand or the 10,000th hand to come? That is what I don't understand. The fact that you lost $8,000 or won $8,000 doesn't matter to me. I understand there are wins and losses. But tell me what I can do with that accumulated EV.

[kewlJ]

I'm not going to argue with you anymore because we are obviously speaking different languages... the same way you are speaking different languages over the WOV controversy about Qfit.

You say that EV doesn't have a range? Okay I'm glad you said that but above you posted:

"EV starts at zero (new year) and progresses up to $3244, at the end of January 15."

Is that not a range?

I'm guessing you really didn't mean to say EV and you meant to say something else. Well that's the problem. I don't understand you. Eddie doesn't understand. Regnis doesn't understand. Apparently the Wizard doesn't understand either in your fight over Qfit.

Good luck.

My feud with QFIT, in which Michael Shackleford wrongly chose to get involved and take sides has nothing to do with this discussion. Don't try to mix it in. And you don't even know the half of what it is about, as it began, on 2 other sites before Wizards. QFIT, simply followed me (stalked me) to other sites that he didn't even participate at, trying to bully other site owners to silence me. Only 1 other site owner did and that was Mike Shackleford. At BJ21.com, 2+2 Poker, and even Gamblingforum, the owner all told QFIT to pound sand when he tried the same bullying tactics. Only Shackleford was so weak, he allowed himself to be played and bullied. So don't talk about something that you don't know the facts of.

If you are guessing I didn't mean to say "EV" then you are guessing wrong. No wonder your gambling results are what they are. You are a bad guesser.

EV does not have a range. EV accumulates. Starting at zero and accumulating to 3200 and beyond (currently 46,680 for the year) is NOT a range.....it is the process of accumulating.

[Alan Mendelson]

Kewlj DO NOT respond to me. From now on respond to regnis.

[kewlJ]

But tell me what I can do with that accumulated EV.

You can't "do" anything with it. It is not a monetary value, although most teams actually do pay their players based on EV rather than results, or some combination of EV/results. That is getting a bit away from what we are talking about, but it does demonstrate the degree of certainty that these players that understand the math have that results and EV will eventually come together.


Accumulated EV is a measurement of results and where results will eventually be. EV is a constant so it removed the fluctuation that actual results incur. In the end long-term), both will arrive at the same point. ALWAYS DO. It's mathematics.

[kewlJ]

Kewlj DO NOT respond to me. From now on respond to regnis.

Actually, I am about done responding to either. I am not going to continue to waste my time trying to explain things to people that don't want to learn, just want to argue.


You guys do it your way. I'll do it mine. I am very happy with my results over the last 14+ years. Now my chauffer is here. Off to work I go to accumulate some EV.