Expected Value Discussion

[regnis]

Kewl--I am trying to have a conversation with no name calling, no agenda, no Forum BS. I asked a very simple question that I don't understand. If you can't give me an answer then I have to assume you don't have one.

I didn't see 119. Disregard. I see your answer.

[Alan Mendelson]

Hold on kewlj. I can understand you not responding to me, but regnis? He's posted twice about you.

[MaxPen]

I amazed at how long this discussion can go on with MendelFOOL. When will KJ get tired, is the question.

[monet]

I amazed at how long this discussion can go on with MendelFOOL. When will KJ get tired, is the question.

MendleFool... not bad but nothing beats that MendleBread reference with Hitler having the recipe.

It is pretty obvious that MendleBread doesn't give a shit about what he is talking about or asking. He is only here to cause trouble and troll asking the same stupid questions over and over again and telling everyone that he "gotcha" or they are wrong. Fucking Asshole really who made a living out of telling on people. Nothing but a piece of shit Tattletale. He is also here to promote Rob Singer and most likely gets a kickback or blowjob from him.

[LarryS]

I amazed at how long this discussion can go on with MendelFOOL. When will KJ get tired, is the question.

MendleFool... not bad but nothing beats that MendleBread reference with Hitler having the recipe.

It is pretty obvious that MendleBread doesn't give a shit about what he is talking about or asking. He is only here to cause trouble and troll asking the same stupid questions over and over again and telling everyone that he "gotcha" or they are wrong. Fucking Asshole really who made a living out of telling on people. Nothing but a piece of shit Tattletale. He is also here to promote Rob Singer and most likely gets a kickback or blowjob from him.

as i hold the mirror to james bonds face

[kewlJ]

I amazed at how long this discussion can go on with MendelFOOL. When will KJ get tired, is the question.

You forget, KJ is a grinder (that is a blackjack playing approach, not a sexual reference). Grinders are persistent and have stamina. But you are right MaxPen, dealing with this guy has taken it's toll on me and is wearing me out.

[a2a3dseddie]

Skip the double talk. What can I do with the accumulated EV. My odds of winning the next hand haven't changed at all. So what can I do with it? What good is it? Or does it just mean I played a lot of hands? I played a lot of hands so I accumulated a lot of EV. OK---now what? What do I do with it? How does it help me on the next hand or the 10,000th hand to come? That is what I don't understand. The fact that you lost $8,000 or won $8,000 doesn't matter to me. I understand there are wins and losses. But tell me what I can do with that accumulated EV.

I think an example of "using accumulated EV" from the casino's point of view would be when they are establishing player comps based on play and the player's theoretical loss.

From a player's perspective?

I suppose after tracking a sufficiently large number of sessions and the "EV accumulated", one could compare it to their actual results and perhaps make a determination if one indeed DOES have a +EV situation.

The only other use I can see for it is to comfort yourself when you run below expectation or suffer a bad beat.

[kewlJ]

Skip the double talk. What can I do with the accumulated EV. My odds of winning the next hand haven't changed at all. So what can I do with it? What good is it? Or does it just mean I played a lot of hands? I played a lot of hands so I accumulated a lot of EV. OK---now what? What do I do with it? How does it help me on the next hand or the 10,000th hand to come? That is what I don't understand. The fact that you lost $8,000 or won $8,000 doesn't matter to me. I understand there are wins and losses. But tell me what I can do with that accumulated EV.

I think an example of "using accumulated EV" from the casino's point of view would be when they are establishing player comps based on play and the player's theoretical loss.

From a player's perspective?

I suppose after tracking a sufficiently large number of sessions and the "EV accumulated", one could compare it to their actual results and perhaps make a determination if one indeed DOES have a +EV situation.

The only other use I can see for it is to comfort yourself when you run below expectation or suffer a bad beat.

Correct, the casino industry tracks expectation. Their entire business is based on expectation. And just like the player who achieves the long-term, the casino industry knows results will meet expectation in the long run. It's math.


Form the players perspective. Blackjack is NOT like Video poker where there is a 4000-1 payout or other games with large jackpots. Blackjack is an even money game basically. You aren't going to win a million dollars, or $100,000 or whatever your goal is without putting in the action, the actual play that will allow for that. Accululated EV is a way to determine just where you are as it is constant, not subject to the short-term fluctuations and variance of actual results. In the end the two will come together. But in the short-term, accumulated EV is a much better measuring stick as to where you are....because it is not subject to that short-term fluctuation, that "rollercoaster" ride.

[mickeycrimm]

Skip the double talk. What can I do with the accumulated EV. My odds of winning the next hand haven't changed at all. So what can I do with it? What good is it? Or does it just mean I played a lot of hands? I played a lot of hands so I accumulated a lot of EV. OK---now what? What do I do with it? How does it help me on the next hand or the 10,000th hand to come? That is what I don't understand. The fact that you lost $8,000 or won $8,000 doesn't matter to me. I understand there are wins and losses. But tell me what I can do with that accumulated EV.

Compare it with your actual results. Duh!

[a2a3dseddie]

But in the short-term, accumulated EV is a much better measuring stick as to where you are....because it is not subject to that short-term fluctuation, that "rollercoaster" ride.

kewlj, I think this is where results oriented thinking people may take issue.

[regnis]

Skip the double talk. What can I do with the accumulated EV. My odds of winning the next hand haven't changed at all. So what can I do with it? What good is it? Or does it just mean I played a lot of hands? I played a lot of hands so I accumulated a lot of EV. OK---now what? What do I do with it? How does it help me on the next hand or the 10,000th hand to come? That is what I don't understand. The fact that you lost $8,000 or won $8,000 doesn't matter to me. I understand there are wins and losses. But tell me what I can do with that accumulated EV.

Compare it with your actual results. Duh!

Mickey--don't get snarky with me. Compare it with actual results to what end? What good does it do? We all know there is variance. Kewl is certain that in the long run he will approximate the EV. So what good does it do to look at it after the one bad day? If he is certain then it doesn't matter and he need not look at it.

If it is just a mental crutch then so be it. It may be meaningless to some but it may have some comfort to others. So be it. But don't make it sound like it has some other intrinsic value.

I'm ok with Kewl's answer from above.

[tableplay]

Alan, you are the one double talking and saying things that were never said. Prime example is that "EV has a range". I never frigging said anything like that. EV is constant, actual results have a range (standard deviation).

Virtually all nursery school graduates learn that Straw Man arguments are ineffectual against other people older than four years old - Alan is the extremely rare exception.

[redietz]

I am an English (writing option) major, I have had gambling articles edited and published

Well then sir, this might just be your lucky day.

The owners of WoV are advertising for someone with just those skills.

see:

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/info...riters-needed/

Hey, MrV, I just wanted to thank you for the heads up. Unfortunately, I haven't played blackjack in 30 years, I never play craps, and I don't even know the rules for the other games (other than NLH and Seven Stud). But I do appreciate the information. If he ever wanted some sports betting editor, well, that I can do.

Sounds as if there's an exodus of writers at WoV. I hope they get paid more than the mods.

[AxelWolf]

It is always good to play games where your bet has the best expected value. It's ideal to make a bet when your expected value of that bet is positive.

But expected value is only a way to rate a bet. EV is not a medium of exchange. EV can't be used to pay your bills.

To say that you lost real money but had a great bet makes for a wonderful tag line on an online signature. And that's all it is. Only real winnings count.

Those who point to the formula as it relates to casinos overlook that casinos have hundreds of games with hundreds of players but very few games if any that offer a positive EV to the players. This is why the formula works for the casinos.

If you really have an edge on your bet the formula should work for you too.

With that said, I like your analogy about the loss being a bad beat. You still lost. You can try again but you still lost.

Having an edge doesn't automatically make you a winner.
Even casinos lose sometimes. But what keeps the casinos open is the small number of winners.

Alan, put a coin in your hand. Charge me $8500 to pick what hand the coin is in. If I guess wrong I owe you $8500.. If I guess right I get $42500.

Allow me to keep playing until i want to quit.

I bet I can get a loan on that bet and float all my bills, even if I lost $8500 multiple Times already in one day. And I could say I had my best day ever even though I lost because I know dang well I will crush you soon enough and it will average out soon enough.

[regnis]

Another misstatement Axel. The day you lost is not a great day. You may have made a wager with a very high EV. But you lost--so not a great day. And that is really the essence of what this argument is all about. And when you do win the 42,500, that will be a great day, although the EV of that wager was no different.

[mickeycrimm]

Skip the double talk. What can I do with the accumulated EV. My odds of winning the next hand haven't changed at all. So what can I do with it? What good is it? Or does it just mean I played a lot of hands? I played a lot of hands so I accumulated a lot of EV. OK---now what? What do I do with it? How does it help me on the next hand or the 10,000th hand to come? That is what I don't understand. The fact that you lost $8,000 or won $8,000 doesn't matter to me. I understand there are wins and losses. But tell me what I can do with that accumulated EV.

Compare it with your actual results. Duh!

Mickey--don't get snarky with me. Compare it with actual results to what end? What good does it do? We all know there is variance. Kewl is certain that in the long run he will approximate the EV. So what good does it do to look at it after the one bad day? If he is certain then it doesn't matter and he need not look at it.

If it is just a mental crutch then so be it. It may be meaningless to some but it may have some comfort to others. So be it. But don't make it sound like it has some other intrinsic value.

I'm ok with Kewl's answer from above.

You're the one that's been getting snarky. I didn't make it sound like it had some intrinsic value. Anyone who says I did is a fucking liar. Here, I'll make it a little easier on you and Mentalmidgetson. I "played off" $330 in EV today. It means the exact same thing as "I accumulated $330 in EV today." But maybe you can grasp "played off." There's no hope for Mentalmidgetson. And this bullshit about it comforting someone is total hogwash.

[a2a3dseddie]

mickey, kewlj,

Looking at some of the analysis you make before making a bet... determining if it is indeed a +EV opportunity and reading through your explanations is very interesting stuff.

What would happen if you didn't track this EV afterwards? I mean, uncovering +EV situations to bet on anyone can understand, but does it really matter after the bets are resolved?

[regnis]

Compare it with your actual results. Duh!

Mickey--don't get snarky with me. Compare it with actual results to what end? What good does it do? We all know there is variance. Kewl is certain that in the long run he will approximate the EV. So what good does it do to look at it after the one bad day? If he is certain then it doesn't matter and he need not look at it.

If it is just a mental crutch then so be it. It may be meaningless to some but it may have some comfort to others. So be it. But don't make it sound like it has some other intrinsic value.

I'm ok with Kewl's answer from above.

You're the one that's been getting snarky. I didn't make it sound like it had some intrinsic value. Anyone who says I did is a fucking liar. Here, I'll make it a little easier on you and Mentalmidgetson. I "played off" $330 in EV today. It means the exact same thing as "I accumulated $330 in EV today." But maybe you can grasp "played off." There's no hope for Mentalmidgetson. And this bullshit about it comforting someone is total hogwash.

Mickey--how did you play off EV? Is there a special EV voucher that you put in the machine?

[monet]

Another misstatement Axel. The day you lost is not a great day. You may have made a wager with a very high EV. But you lost--so not a great day. And that is really the essence of what this argument is all about. And when you do win the 42,500, that will be a great day, although the EV of that wager was no different.

You must be a Fucking Idiot! Are you a part of the Confederacy? Sure sounds like it! Any day that you get a 50/50 chance and risk 8500 to win 42,500 is a Fucking Great Day no matter win or lose any amount. You Fucking Idiots are the dumbest pieces of shit that don't understand that in this lifestyle all you are looking for is something like this and to exploit it over and over till you have to move to the next exploit. Fucking Amatures!

Even though you say your name has no relation to Rob Singer I think it is clear you are Singer or Regnis... Fuck You!

[regnis]

Here's a hypothetical question. I play 4 hours, lose $8,000, and accumulate $450 EV. The next day I play 4 hours and accumulate $400 EV and win $8,000.

Which day is better?