Expected Value Discussion

[Alan Mendelson]

So as long as he knows he has a +EV on every hand, what good does tracking do?

For one thing, it allows you to determine if a game is rigged. KewlJ gave an excellent example of this when he outlined his experience at the Eastside Cannery in Las Vegas -- obviously if you are running at -5 standard deviations below the EV for an extended period of time, then knowing what your earn should be (via tracking the EV) versus what's actually going on will have proven to be very valuable since you will stop playing the rigged game based on the huge differential between expected and actual.

Rigged games? Like Rob Singer talks about? Oh puhleeze.

[redietz]

A couple of things: whether KJ's 8K loss was a good day or bad day in any sense depends on whether those opportunities are going to be there awhile. If the exact same game will be there for months, I'd feel a lot better playing perfectly and getting slammed than if that game will disappear next week. If you're going to play blackjack for a living, you can't close up shop on a minus 8k day just because of variance. Unless, of course, you suspect a mechanic is part of the problem.

And I guess that would be an issue with me. I'm not able to recognize a mechanic, or a magician, so I'd become paranoid over a result like that which took 10% of my annual earnings away in one shift. Video poker is different, in that so much value is in the royals. I've experienced 100k (hands) without royals and gotten three in a few hundred hands, so getting clobbered in one day with a big edge wouldn't bother me.

I think you have to track the EV. I don't see how a professional machine player or blackjack player could pass on doing that.

Red-I would ask what value there really is in tracking the EV. He knows the EV and he says it doesn't change on the next hand or the 10,000th hand. So as long as he knows he has a +EV on every hand, what good does tracking do? Yes--I want to know that I have an advantage on my bet. But if I know exactly what that advantage is, isn't that the end? It doesn't make it more likely that I will win any hand down the road. And again, the concept of accumulating it just seems meaningless to me.

Well, that's where I may be confused (won't be the first time). If you put in an AP shift and change locales with slightly different rules, or if comp accrual changes over time during your shift from place to place or just because of time brackets, then I thought you'd track the EV for each circumstance and jot it down. You can figure the EV totality for the day when the day is done. Mickey obviously changes machines throughout the day, so his EV on the same machine stays the same (although not necessarily because promos may be time restricted), but his EV for the day is going to vary a ton depending what cornucopia of plays he's taking a shot at.

I didn't really understand the idea of EV staying the same throughout the day because I just assume full shifts in one circumstance or attacking one game are pretty rare. Or maybe I just misinterpreted what was being said.

[mickeycrimm]

So this is not an example of "tracking EV" but just being aware of a promotion and playing it at the right time?

Most promotions don't give an advantage. You have to be able to analyze it to determine the value, what game you can apply it to, how much of an edge, is it worth your time, and know the strategy to the game.

[mickeycrimm]

Nice play mickeycrimm. But it seems to me even a new player could have done what you did? That means get a card and play at the designated time for the bonus, right?

Alan, would a novice be able to find the best game for such a promotion? And would they know optimal strategy? Would they even be aware of the value involved?

8/5 Bonus Poker pays 99.2% and Mickeys game paid 99.43% Both would still get the 4% bonus? I'd stick with the game I know.

There is a terrible danger playing a game you don't know because of some promotion.

The strategy for the BJ was easy enough to find:

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=...hsdIB86ifF3P9m

[kewlJ]

A couple of things: whether KJ's 8K loss was a good day or bad day in any sense depends on whether those opportunities are going to be there awhile. If the exact same game will be there for months, I'd feel a lot better playing perfectly and getting slammed than if that game will disappear next week. If you're going to play blackjack for a living, you can't close up shop on a minus 8k day just because of variance. Unless, of course, you suspect a mechanic is part of the problem.

And I guess that would be an issue with me. I'm not able to recognize a mechanic, or a magician, so I'd become paranoid over a result like that which took 10% of my annual earnings away in one shift. Video poker is different, in that so much value is in the royals. I've experienced 100k (hands) without royals and gotten three in a few hundred hands, so getting clobbered in one day with a big edge wouldn't bother me.

I think you have to track the EV. I don't see how a professional machine player or blackjack player could pass on doing that.

Sorry for not responding to this earlier. Been working a lot lately and it is "counter counter-productive" , to read this site during my breaks.

Losing 10% of annual earnings in one shift is not pleasant, but it is routine. That is not to say that those kind of days occur weekly or anything. Looking back over the last year, I have had 8 days with losses of 8K or more (11 days of winning 8k or more), so such a losing day occurs every month or two. However there were also 16 times in the last 12 months (went back 14 months since I didn't work several months last fall), where I registered an 8k loss at some point during the day and ended up losing less than half of that amount. 3 of those days ended up as winning days!

And that is EXACTLY why we keep playing rather than adhering to some sort of artificial and voodoo "stop limit". You have an advantage....you keep playing! And this is EXACTLY why every legitimate BJ book written expresses the need for a large bankroll. Blackjack in general is a volatile game with swings. And when you add 'bet spread' with some bets many times the size of other bets, to that mix, you need a very significant bankroll to withstand such swings and variance.

I also want to point out that this day, back in the first week of January, was a single day, a "shift" as you called it, but it was made up of 7 different sessions at 5 different casinos. It just so happens that 2 of those sessions at 2 different casinos were losing sessions in the $3200 range. And when you consider a max bet of $400, a $3200 loss is 8 max bets. That really is very common and again, exactly why a significant bankroll is necessary.

I tried to post a copy of these results the other night, but unfortunately I was unable to do so without giving access to all my records, which I didn't want to do.

[kewlJ]

Several times in this thread, the question has been raised as to why it is important to track EV. I am only going to speak of blackjack, because that is what I consider myself a blackjack card counter or blackjack AP.

The best example I can think of was 2015, my younger brother's first year of card counting. I set him up with a $10,000 so that he could play low limit stakes, as he learned the ins and outs, the swings involved, what does and doesn't draw heat. He got off to a fast start, which he thought was great. First six months he nearly doubled his bankroll. I think he won like 9 grand, which was probably double expectation (accumulated EV). Luckily he didn't have much in the way of living expenses....to put gas in a vehicle and entertainment money. Sweet deal, hun?

So after his initial success he started taking money out of the bankroll, which is what we all do. But he was spending the money he was ahead, which was more than EV. The rule is you spend your EV or preferably a little less. A lot less, if you are trying to grow your BR.


So 2nd half of the year, actual earnings caught up to EV, or in this case came back to EV....AS THEY ALWAY DO! He didn't experience any great losing period. Actually in year 4 now, he STILL hasn't really experienced an exceptional losing swing. But what happened was he didn't win much that second half of 2015. I think he won a thousand bucks or $1200 or whatever it was. So it ended up for the year, he had made something like $9600, which was just about expectation or accumulated EV, BUT because he spent too much when he was winning, he ended up spending about 12 grand for the year. The bottom line was that despite, winning almost exactly on par with expectation or accumulated EV, his bankroll at the end of the year was $2000 less than when he started.

Again the rule is you can spend EV earned, preferably a little less. Well you can't do that if you don't know where you are EV-wise. And that is why professional players, have always, since long before my time, tracked EV or expectation in regards to what their actual results are.

[RS__]

I track EV (and variance) to make sure there isn’t some unknown problem with a play. It’s easy to enough to do the math with “I’m gonna lose X, get Y back, therefore profit Z.” Sometimes of course there are other things to take into account, like unforeseen expenses, casinos trying to fuck you out of your well deserved money, or perhaps not playing properly.

For instance, let’s say KJ is up $30k at the end of a year. If he didn’t keep track of his EV, he doesn’t know where he is compared to where he should be. At $30k/year, it’s likely it’s not worth the effort and he should pack up and move to a different profession. So he plays another year and he wins $50k. He still doesn’t know where he should be because he didn’t track his EV. Should he be making $40k/year? Or maybe he got lucky the last two years and should only be making $10-20k/year. Maybe he’s gotten unlucky and he should be making $80k/year.


Would you start up a new business if you had no idea how much it should cost and what kind of return youd get? Tracking EV is part of a business model for APs. I do it all the time. I need to figure out how much it’s going to cost to get somewhere (airfare), rental cars, hotel, food, other expenses, plus how much the win on the game is and take some away for likely not playing perfectly, then subtract a little more because there always seems to be some additional unforeseen expense. Then I figure the profit per trip. Then how many trips need to be done per week/month/year to make it worthwhile, while balancing “playing enough to make it worth it” and “don’t play too much and blow it up”.

There are plenty of places that are good but not worthwhile because it either costs too much to get there and/or it’s so small you can’t take much from them (enough to cancel out expenses and make it worth it). But if it were here in LV, then it’d be a different story.

[kewlJ]

Excellent post and examples RS.

I want to expand on the examples you used, because I had a year right along those lines, 2014. I was on WoV, and shared the experiences as I was going through this year, so you and other long-time WoVer may have heard this before.

My 2014: Blackjack winnings $27,345 vs expectation or accumulated EV of $87,600. I can remember how the year unfolded without even looking at my records. First half of the year, was ok. A little below expectation. Maybe 30k actual earnings vs expectation of $37k...something in that range. Second half of the year I experienced one of those 6 month long losing periods. I actually went backwards quite a bit before rebounding almost to zero for that second half of the year period. And the last 2 months, I put in a great deal of time and play (really racking up EV) trying to give myself every chance to end strong. The blackjack gods just weren't having it.

Now I did have 20k earning in non-blackjack play, so that helped, but just imagine if that had been my first year, or the first year after I moved up in stakes, or the first year after I moved to Vegas. I might have given up right then and there. Instead, you know you are running below expectation, and believe in the math, and things will work out in the long-run.....and they did.

But if you aren't tracking EV and KNOW what expectation is, then you are in the dark. I guess it's like trying to build something without having all the tools necessary.

[kewlJ]

So speaking of EV, today I went over $50k blackjack EV for the year. It is only the second time my blackjack EV has hit 50k for a 6 month period. (I average 75-80k a year in EV). The only other time I went over 50k EV for a 6 month period was 2014,which happens to be my worst year, my one outlier year with blackjack earning of 27k vs EV for the year of 87k. So I am hoping not to follow that path.

Hitting $50K EV, at my level of play, basically means I have been putting in a lot of time at the tables, more than usual. Especial over the last 2 months since I returned to playing after my partner passed. And no I am not at 50k in earnings for the year. I am at 41k, so running a bit below expectation, but completely within the normal range.

[MisterV]

"Earnings" vs. "Losses."

I'm a bit envious.

[LarryS]

So speaking of EV, today I went over $50k blackjack EV for the year. It is only the second time my blackjack EV has hit 50k for a 6 month period. (I average 75-80k a year in EV). The only other time I went over 50k EV for a 6 month period was 2014,which happens to be my worst year, my one outlier year with blackjack earning of 27k vs EV for the year of 87k. So I am hoping not to follow that path.

Hitting $50K EV, at my level of play, basically means I have been putting in a lot of time at the tables, more than usual. Especial over the last 2 months since I returned to playing after my partner passed. And no I am not at 50k in earnings for the year. I am at 41k, so running a bit below expectation, but completely within the normal range.

I am not a mathboy so I ask this not to be argumentative ...just as a novice.

Does "this year" mean anything at all. Just like the dice or cards dont know the difference between night and day or 11:59 pm vs 12:01 am.

Forget about EV.Lets use this examplle. In Dec 2017 a guy loses 500k. The from january thru june 2018 he is 50 k ahead, and gleefully announces that he is on a god run and has won a net of 50k "for the year". But if he starts counting one month earlier and looks at the last 7 months.....he is 450k in the hole.

Even if he goes back a year from today to june 2017.......what if in may of 2017 he lost 200k. Again..its an arbitrary period of time.

the only net number that is meaningful are numbers reflected in ones lifetime. You cant fudge those numbers(if they are accurately kept). But numbers reflected in spreads of just months have no meaning to me.

So I would expect the same goes for accumulated ev.....right?

[Dankyone]

Okay kewlj says EV accumulates.

You read it here first.

Alan doesn’t understand something. Heard it here first 🙄

[kewlJ]

Does "this year" mean anything at all. Just like the dice or cards dont know the difference between night and day or 11:59 pm vs 12:01 am.

Forget about EV.Lets use this examplle. In Dec 2017 a guy loses 500k. The from january thru june 2018 he is 50 k ahead, and gleefully announces that he is on a god run and has won a net of 50k "for the year". But if he starts counting one month earlier and looks at the last 7 months.....he is 450k in the hole.

Even if he goes back a year from today to june 2017.......what if in may of 2017 he lost 200k. Again..its an arbitrary period of time.

the only net number that is meaningful are numbers reflected in ones lifetime. You cant fudge those numbers(if they are accurately kept). But numbers reflected in spreads of just months have no meaning to me.

So I would expect the same goes for accumulated ev.....right?

LarryS, something we can agree on....a rarity. It goes to the "long term" argument. What is long-term? What is a big enough sample size that variance or natural swing matter less and the math takes over and guarantees "this or that". I don't know the answer as I am not a math boy either. There are formulas and such, but I don't know I like to go by my own experience. And in my 14 years of professional play, earning have been close to expectation every year but 2. I call them outliers, one year 37k above EV or expectation and one year 60k below.

And you know what is pretty funny? These years were back to back. So if you add those years together or start slicing and dicing when the 12 month period began and ended, the numbers start to look a lot more "normal"....closer to expectation.

Unfortunately, that is not the way our government keeps records as far as taxes. For most of us the year starts January 1 and runs through Dec 31 (some businesses on a fiscal year). So that is the way I do it. I start January 1, set my BR to a 100k amount and track wins/losses and EV from that point.

[Dankyone]

The entire way this board goes:

Alan asks a stupid, basic question. People answer him. He disputes the answer, and does not understand.

Smarter people give detailed explanations.

Alan says “That’s BS!”

Robbie chimes in with his ghastly insults to everyone and anyone.

Rinse and repeat.

[kewlJ]

Okay kewlj says EV accumulates.

You read it here first.

Alan doesn’t understand something. Heard it here first ��

Nothing new about this. Since I joined this site just about a year ago, Alan has been on a year long "agenda" to discredit me. I mean he has the same agenda with other AP's but with me, it has been pretty blatant. I don't know what it is about me that Alan hates so much that he works so hard to discredit me. To his credit, I don't think Alan's issues with me revolve around my sexuality, as some other members clearly do. My good friend Axelwolf thought it would be funny to announce that on my first day here.

But again, I don't think that is Alan's issue. If I had to guess, I would say my age plays into it with Alan. While he, a degenerative gambling addict doesn't like AP's that play with an advantage and make money instead of "donate" as he does year after year, It seems to really get Alan's goat that I, someone in my mid 30's has had some limited success, over 1.1 million total AP, $930k from blackjack, which is what I really consider myself, a blackjack card counter.

So as I have shared some experiences and techniques that I have incorporated into my play, Alan just goes berserk, challenging everything I say. The funny thing is that none of the concepts or techniques that I employ and Alan argues are anything I came up with, as everything I do is learned and taken from other players before me. Sometimes I put my own little twist on things, some necessary because of conditions that have changed, but the basic concepts come from very successful players that came before me.

So I make reference to tracking two tables when the opportunity is available, or some other thing and Alan goes berserk, because he is not familiar with it. Nevermind that several very well known and longtime successful players, will tell you they do the same. Alan who knows all, isn't familiar so he goes nuts trying to discredit me. The really funny part is that somewhere during these marathon discussion that will ensue, Alan will say "I am not a blackjack player but.....". However that doesn't stop him from trying to disprove and discredit what he admits he has no idea about.

One of my favorites, is related to or part of the "tracking two tables discussion". The concept of having an advantage with partial count or incomplete count. To Alan this is inconceivable. But it is a proven mathematical fact. Sure it is better to have as much information as possible, but partial counts can identify some pretty big advantageous situations. Partial counts are the basis of "Wonging in", named for Stanford Wong (pen name) a very successful player and "math guy". And many of the top teams have employed some measure of "wonging" and partial counts.

But it is news to Alan, a non-blackjack player, so he does his thing, trolling, challenging, and trying to discredit, what he has no idea about.

[kewlJ]

The entire way this board goes:

Alan asks a stupid, basic question. People answer him. He disputes the answer, and does not understand.

Smarter people give detailed explanations.

Alan says “That’s BS!”

Robbie chimes in with his ghastly insults to everyone and anyone.

Rinse and repeat.

Ahhh...yeah....pretty much. Sad isn't it? Unfortunately some of us have no other options, having been exiled from the more legit sites because of politics. Not the democrat/republican, liberal/conservative type politics, but politics among the AP community and those that run it.

[kewlJ]

The concept of having an advantage with partial count or incomplete count. To Alan this is inconceivable. But it is a proven mathematical fact. Sure it is better to have as much information as possible, but partial counts can identify some pretty big advantageous situations.

In reading through my post, I feel the need to add something about the above statement. Every single count that a card counter employs, including so-called higher level "super duper" counts, is actually a partial count! At no time does the card counter have "complete" information, unless the game is dealt to the final card, and you need a time machine for those opportunities.

So every single count employed is technically a "partial count". Sometimes that information is enough to identify an advantage (and raise bets), sometimes it is not. And sometimes the "partial count identified pretty negative situation, that you really should get the hell away from! Yep, the more information you have, the better, but partial counts are really the basis of card counting and have been since the inception of card counting, or at least since it began being talked about 60 years ago.

[MisterV]

Unfortunately some of us have no other options, having been exiled from the more legit sites because of politics. Not the democrat/republican, liberal/conservative type politics, but politics among the AP community and those that run it.

You're still sticking to that story, aren't you?

It was your comments which led to your exile.

QFIT played you like a fiddle.

Which does not mean you've nothing to offer; only that you were the one driving the car off the cliff.

Your AP posts are interesting, and I don't even play BJ; I am surprised you can still get away with counting for a living in this day and age.

[Alan Mendelson]

I am surprised you can still get away with counting for a living in this day and age.

I'm curious about that as well?

We know why dice setters are,allowed to set dice.
We know why keno players can chart numbers drawn.
We even know why slot players can tap on the screens.

LOL

[MisterV]

Alan, I was referring to the fact that Las Vegas casinos seek out and employ countermeasures (pun intende).

KJ previously said he gets away with it because he doesn't play too long at any one location, and moves around (lots of BJ tables in sin city).

Still, you'd think him increasing his bet during a favorable count should be easy to detect?