What's my edge in craps?

[AxelWolf]

Do you live or are you in Vegas at this time? I would like it to be a situation where we can just go do this without a bunch of planning months/weeks in advance

No, I live in NJ. This will need to be planned in advance.

Do you have 5k to bring to the table? I'm willing to show Alan or someone we agree on my 5K before we even go any further.

Is this a serious question? I'm an adult, I have $5k to bring to the table. I'm assuming the same applies to you, you don't need to show Alan your bankroll.

I'm serious, but you seem pretty squirrelly about it.

Stay cool and relax, something can be worked out if you can be reasonable.

You spend plenty of time on these forums...14K posts on WOV plus whatever other forums you participate on...you don't seem all that busy to me.

And the wormm is more than welcome to take some of this action, but he'll need to meet me at the table...no proxies.

Over how many years has it been? Have you heard of mobile internet? There is plenty of downtime when traveling, in between plays. I do watch some Netflix and what not but I almost never watch TV and I only sleep about 6 hours a day.

But if and when something comes up I got to do what I got to do. Hell, Just a few days after my wedding I had to go out of town and I wasn't expecting too.

I wasn't able to attend the WOV events this year or get a chance to meet up with people I had planned on. It happens regularly. Whenever people tell me they are coming to Vegas I tell them to let me know the day before and go from there. I have even missed my sister a few times when she came to Vegas.

I'm not being squirrelly about it, I'm letting you know in advance.

Just tell me what dates you are thinking. of. If Alan is willing and able, I'm in. I'm even willing to put up the 5k in escrow. If someone is a no-show or backs out the other person gets the money. I would say that's the opposite of squirrelly.

If MC wants some of my action, that's between me and him.

Edit to add: As far as I know, no one from the forums has ever met you, no one has collected or made any bets with you, no one has ever done any business with you. Very little is known about you. I have done all of the above and more. So yes, that was a serious question as I have been down this road before.

[coach belly]

I have been down this road before.

I believe you, but I haven't so I'm not understanding your apprehension,
what negative things do you expect that could happen ?

As long as you accept Alan's play plan, then go ahead and put the money in escrow,
I'll need that confirmed before I travel to Vegas.

In the meantime, I'll look into travel arrangements.

I come out every year for a week for either St Patricks Day, Easter or Memorial Day,
are any of these dates acceptable?

If not, then let me know what's the latest date you'll consider.

[Alan Mendelson]

Escrow? I'm not holding any money in escrow.

[RS__]

For the record, I don't want anything to do with any of this craps shenanigans. Best case scenario is I'd make a few hundred bucks in EV....but the downside is I'd have to meet CB (no thanks) and see Alan again. #NoThankYou


Alan, to determine if you have an edge, at least for recording numbers, all you gotta do is have a small notepad or piece of paper and write down the numbers you roll. I've seen plenty of players do it and it's not all that weird -- well, it's not weird compared to other players.

[Alan Mendelson]

RS__ I don't recall meeting you.

My question is how to analyze the numbers?

My last craps outing:

$25 on the pass. $5 on each of the STA. $5 on horn high ace deuce.

My rolls:
3 won $2
8 set as point, $5 horn lost
6 nothing bet
5 nothing bet
4 nothing bet
8 won $25

New comeout, $25 pass, $5 horn high ace deuce
9 set as point, $5 horn bet lost
9 won $25

New come out $25 pass, $5 horn high ace deuce
11 won $25 + $11

New come out $25 pass, $5 horn high ace deuce
5 is the point, $5 horn bet lost
6 nothing bet
4 nothing bet
9 nothing bet
7 out

[RS__]

We’ve never met. But I was walking into a casino as you were walking out. I wasn’t sure if it was you, but you posted a little while later about something that happened that night at that casino, so figured that was confirmation enough it was you, after the fact. Next time margs on me.

Those numbers mean nothing. You’ll likely need at least a couple hundred if not a couple thousand rolls.

[regnis]

Did you bump him and get his wallet?

[mickeycrimm]

But craps is a -EV game so there won't be any EV banking.

Sure there will but the house and axel will be the ones doing it. BTW, I'm like RS, don't care to get involved. I have other things to do. Besides, don't look like its going to take place until next year anyway.

[Alan Mendelson]

Mickeycrimm you're coming to Vegas? We'll schedule everything just for you. LOL

[AxelWolf]

I have been down this road before.

I believe you, but I haven't so I'm not understanding your apprehension,
what negative things do you expect that could happen ?

As long as you accept Alan's play plan, then go ahead and put the money in escrow,
I'll need that confirmed before I travel to Vegas.

In the meantime, I'll look into travel arrangements.

I come out every year for a week for either St Patricks Day, Easter or Memorial Day,
are any of these dates acceptable?

If not, then let me know what's the latest date you'll consider.

I guess we will continue discussing it closer st. Patrick's Day
Unfortunately, I have a feeling Alan will no longer think he has an advantage by then if he actully tracks his rolls and results.

Alan, I was not even suggesting YOU as the escrow agent(or whatever you call them). I prefer not to have my escrowed money all tall and smalled away to the casino (-;

[Alan Mendelson]

I played yesterday. Hit one small, hit one tall. Unfortunately not during the same hand (turn with the dice). Two hits per day continues as my average.

[coach belly]

I played yesterday. Hit one small, hit one tall. Unfortunately not during the same hand (turn with the dice). Two hits per day continues as my average.

Stay healthy and stay sharp.

March Madness will be here again before you know it, and with your skill I'll take some cash off the top AP around.

[AxelWolf]

I played yesterday. Hit one small, hit one tall. Unfortunately not during the same hand (turn with the dice). Two hits per day continues as my average.

And what was your final results? how many rolls are you rolling per day on avrage?

[coach belly]

And what was your final results? how many rolls are you rolling per day on avrage?

Don't tell him, that's proprietary information.

Say something like..."I have never had a profitable day at craps".

[Alan Mendelson]

I played yesterday. Hit one small, hit one tall. Unfortunately not during the same hand (turn with the dice). Two hits per day continues as my average.

And what was your final results? how many rolls are you rolling per day on avrage?

I only had two turns as the shooter. I had a profit of $116.

[mickeycrimm]

I played yesterday. Hit one small, hit one tall. Unfortunately not during the same hand (turn with the dice). Two hits per day continues as my average.

And what was your final results? how many rolls are you rolling per day on avrage?

I only had two turns as the shooter. I had a profit of $116.

It works until it doesn't work.

[Alan Mendelson]

"It works until it doesn't work." Isn't it that way with all gambling? With slots, video poker and despite all that EV still losing $8800 in a day?

At least with craps you know you're playing a -EV game so taking your profits and running can't be bad.

[AxelWolf]

"It works until it doesn't work." Isn't it that way with all gambling? With slots, video poker and despite all that EV still losing $8800 in a day?

At least with craps you know you're playing a -EV game so taking your profits and running can't be bad.

If you are always playing in+EV situations then it doesn't work.... untill it does. The math always averages out eventually(or at least comes very close).

It may not avrage out for YOU and it will almost never be an exact avrage. One guy might be running at 2% one guy might be running at 4% one guy might be losing 10% one guy might be winning 20% and so on and so on and so on.

As per your craps play, I think you are confusing skill with variance. Why don't you come up with a way to easily track your rolls without having to stop and write anything down? perhaps come up with a chip arrangement system or use a smartwatch. For like 50 bucks you can get a spy pen that you can't tell is a video recorder(mine broke when I stepped on it )-; ) that fits in your top pocket and it will record in HD for a few hours at a time. Take restroom break and change the battery or switch out pens. If you really thought you had this skill you would do whatever it takes to confirm.

This is one of many pens they have on the market.

[Alan Mendelson]

I find it fascinating that the APs always say "The math always averages out eventually(or at least comes very close)" as Axel wrote above, but will not acknowledge that for any individual player it may not or ever will.

[MisterV]

There are always exceptions to "the general rule;" visualize a bell curve.