What's my edge in craps?

[Alan Mendelson]

There are always exceptions to "the general rule;" visualize a bell curve.

That bell curve shows a lot of misses.

[MisterV]

Oh yeah.

I remember a discussion on the old board, one of the math whizzes opined that even with negative expectation games there will be some long term winners.

[LarryS]

There are always exceptions to "the general rule;" visualize a bell curve.

in the short term you might be able to find "bell curve" stats.

However if you were to take 10,000 people all of who gamble in the long run, ..they all have 100,000 spins/rolls/hands under their belt///and plot poistive/negative lifetime results on a graph where each person is represented by a single dot......it wont show up as a bell curve. where one side of the bell curve is positive results and the other side is negative results.

All dots would be accumulating on one side of the graph....the negative side.

[RS__]

There are always exceptions to "the general rule;" visualize a bell curve.

in the short term you might be able to find "bell curve" stats.

However if you were to take 10,000 people all of who gamble in the long run, ..they all have 100,000 spins/rolls/hands under their belt///and plot poistive/negative lifetime results on a graph where each person is represented by a single dot......it wont show up as a bell curve. where one side of the bell curve is positive results and the other side is negative results.

All dots would be accumulating on one side of the graph....the negative side.

Sort of right.

The bell curve graph would simply be skewed left (I think that’s the proper terminology), where the center of the curve (mode average) is left of center and there may be a few dots right of +/-$0.


But talking about that doesn’t really help anything. It just means those who are lucky may have made some money while the majority lost. We already know you’re expected to lose when you gamble. Unless you’re exceptionally lucky, you’re going to lose too, after a sufficient amount of cumulative play.

[Alan Mendelson]

There are always exceptions to "the general rule;" visualize a bell curve.

in the short term you might be able to find "bell curve" stats.

However if you were to take 10,000 people all of who gamble in the long run, ..they all have 100,000 spins/rolls/hands under their belt///and plot poistive/negative lifetime results on a graph where each person is represented by a single dot......it wont show up as a bell curve. where one side of the bell curve is positive results and the other side is negative results.

All dots would be accumulating on one side of the graph....the negative side.

Sort of right.

The bell curve graph would simply be skewed left (I think that’s the proper terminology), where the center of the curve (mode average) is left of center and there may be a few dots right of +/-$0.


But talking about that doesn’t really help anything. It just means those who are lucky may have made some money while the majority lost. We already know you’re expected to lose when you gamble. Unless you’re exceptionally lucky, you’re going to lose too, after a sufficient amount of cumulative play.

Now I'm scratching my head and wondering about the +EV guys who track and have an edge and Yada Yada Yada?

[RS__]

Why?

[jbjb]

Oh yeah.

I remember a discussion on the old board, one of the math whizzes opined that even with negative expectation games there will be some long term winners.

The lottery comes to mind.

[MaxPen]

Why?

Because that is what MendelFOOL's do. They can't break out of the stupid.

They wouldn't even let that dumbfuck on the short bus. He was relegated to sitting on the bumper and sucking the exhaust pipe.

[AxelWolf]

I find it fascinating that the APs always say "The math always averages out eventually(or at least comes very close)" as Axel wrote above, but will not acknowledge that for any individual player it may not or ever will.

I find it fascinating that you claim I'm not acknowledging that fact. I may not have used the word individual, but I basically said what you are claiming I didn't acknowledge. Let's take a look at what I said. I'm sure you can find a way to play more word games with my writing.

"It may not avrage out for YOU and it will almost never be an exact avrage. One guy might be running at 2% one guy might be running at 4% one guy might be losing 10% one guy might be winning 20% and so on and so on and so on.

I was clearly talking about someone who is always playing in a +EV situation.
See the bolded part? I think that's acknowledging an individual player may not avrage out especially since they were playing a +EV situation and they were losing 10%. How is that not acknowledging that fact? That seems to be exactly what I was saying.

I'm not sure how it is that you twisted what I said in your mind in order to come to that conclusion. Wishful thinking I guess.

I also find it fascinating that I gave you some advice on ways to track your rolls without the help of another individual. Yet, you tried to use it as another attempt to discredit what AP's say. The advice may not have been some great groundbreaking advice, but I wasn't rude or trying to be a dick. Perhaps you thought I was being a dick when I said, "I think you are confusing skill with variance." Sorry if you took it that way, but you must also be thinking that's possible, or why would you be asking how you can tell if you have an advantage? You are winning so you must have an advantage, right?

[Alan Mendelson]

I win because of the Bonus Craps bet and it's large payoffs. But to win the Small, Tall or All you don't even have to make a single pass. Does that mean a shooter had an edge? Put me on any other layout and I'll lose and lose, just as I did for years.

So the question is not recording my rolls but determining if I have any kind of edge? Can you have an edge without making a single pass?

Axel I don't need spy pens or anyone else to record my rolls. I need analysis and I don't know how you analyze a shooter who doesn't make a pass or only makes one pass yet hits the Small or Tall or All?

[jbjb]

The ONLY way you're going to get the edge at craps is with a promotion or coupon of some kind. END OF DISCUSSION!

[a2a3dseddie]

I win because of the Bonus Craps bet and it's large payoffs. But to win the Small, Tall or All you don't even have to make a single pass. Does that mean a shooter had an edge? Put me on any other layout and I'll lose and lose, just as I did for years.

So the question is not recording my rolls but determining if I have any kind of edge? Can you have an edge without making a single pass?

Axel I don't need spy pens or anyone else to record my rolls. I need analysis and I don't know how you analyze a shooter who doesn't make a pass or only makes one pass yet hits the Small or Tall or All?

https://wizardofodds.com/games/craps...-Small&TallBet

So Alan, do you have DI skills?

Overcoming house edges ranging from 7.47% to 20.61% seems pretty daunting...

[Alan Mendelson]

I have no DI skills. But to win Bonus Craps you need to roll ten different numbers, in no particular order, without repeating even one number, before a seven. I see it done multiple times a day by random shooters.

And you win a secondary jackpot rolling just five numbers.

[AxelWolf]

I win because of the Bonus Craps bet and it's large payoffs. But to win the Small, Tall or All you don't even have to make a single pass. Does that mean a shooter had an edge? Put me on any other layout and I'll lose and lose, just as I did for years.

So the question is not recording my rolls but determining if I have any kind of edge? Can you have an edge without making a single pass?

Axel I don't need spy pens or anyone else to record my rolls. I need analysis and I don't know how you analyze a shooter who doesn't make a pass or only makes one pass yet hits the Small or Tall or All?

I swear you said you wanted/needed someone to track your rolls and that's how all this started. I admit I may have misunderstood. I have no clue how one would determine anything without tracking rolls unless you had some type of skilled shot that was obvious with the naked eye.

p.s. Do you acknowledge that I acknowledged what you said I didn't acknowledge? Or are you going to pull the old ignore that part tactic?

[a2a3dseddie]

I have no DI skills. But to win Bonus Craps you need to roll ten different numbers, in no particular order, without repeating even one number, before a seven. I see it done multiple times a day by random shooters.

And you win a secondary jackpot rolling just five numbers.

You're sure that's not confirmation bias? If you don't have DI skills and random shooters are able to do it multiple times a day, did the Wizard err in his analysis?

[regnis]

If you truly believe that you are "out rolling" the odds, then you must have some DI skills. If not, it is definitely going to even out over time. The fact that you don't have a particular number that repeats makes me believe that you are a random thrower that has had some good luck. I don't think the fact that you have avoided the 7 indicates anything without there being a number that repeats frequently.

That being said, I would up my bets when you are the shooter if I were at a table with you.

[Alan Mendelson]

Axel here's what I wrote near the start of this thread:

"My SRR is very high which is why I'm ahead on Bonus Craps. But if I say that you and the rest of the critics will demand other proof. What do you need?"

This is why I asked for someone to track my rolls and then use whatever formula or program you want to determine if I have an edge.

Remember this thread started with a question and not a declaration. I don't know if I have an edge. I do not claim to be a DI but I do have a high SRR which allows me to frequently hit the Small or Tall or sometimes even the All.

Regnis if you are a come bettor you do not want to bet heavily on me because while I tend to roll enough numbers to win the Small, Tall or All I do not have a history of repeaters or even making passes.

Now there are several of you who are using this thread to take shots at me, so save it. The day I tell you I'm a DI and the day I tell you I can have thirty minute rolls then you can take your shots.

Right now I'm reporting a high enough SRR to win the Bonus Craps bets and I was NOT the one who suggested any betting on my rolls.

[Alan Mendelson]

You're sure that's not confirmation bias? If you don't have DI skills and random shooters are able to do it multiple times a day, did the Wizard err in his analysis?

If there's one thing I've seen in casinos over the years it's that things happen all the time that beat the odds.

I've seen the same shooter hit the ALL three times in a row in the same hand. I've seen it happen twice at Caesars and once at Bellagio. What are the odds of that?

You make it sound like high odds make things impossible when they are not.

Shit happens. Even 18 yos in a row.

[MisterV]

Bullshit happens. Even 18 yos in a row, and now "I believe I have an edge when I am the shooter and only bet on my own rolls. I think I have an edge because of the number of rolls I have in each turn and because of the bets I make which are low house edge bets."

FYP

[a2a3dseddie]

You're sure that's not confirmation bias? If you don't have DI skills and random shooters are able to do it multiple times a day, did the Wizard err in his analysis?

If there's one thing I've seen in casinos over the years it's that things happen all the time that beat the odds.

I've seen the same shooter hit the ALL three times in a row in the same hand. I've seen it happen twice at Caesars and once at Bellagio. What are the odds of that?

You make it sound like high odds make things impossible when they are not.

Shit happens. Even 18 yos in a row.

Hey, I never said it was impossible! (Winning a Small/Tall/All bet) I actually believe casinos market things like bonus bets in craps and other carnival games to make it seem like they are very possible in order to get people to bet on them!

If you have a high SRR, wouldn't your best bet be the Field and placing the 5,6 and 8?