What's my edge in craps?

[kewlJ]

Kewlj, curiously you avoided the comment by regnis who is a craps player. Regnis wrote:

"If you are a smart bettor you can improve your chances of winning.

Nothing wrong with that statement."

If I recall kewlj you don't play craps?

I don't play craps and there is a reason for that.

"Improving your chance of winning" and playing a winning game (+EV) are two very different things.

In blackjack if a player plays perfect basic strategy he will improve his chance of winning, BUT he will still be playing a -EV game, with the house having a .3 to .6% advantage for most rule sets (avoiding 6:5).

So there is nothing wrong with the statement "a smart bettor can improve your chances of winning."

I believe Axelwolfs "WOW statement" was more about what you said prior to that....basically you indicating you think you can play craps with an edge, with, or without DI.

You are now the second of what I call the "deniers" that refuses to believe that AP's playing with proven mathematical techniques that makes their play +EV, can't and don't win, but that you playing a -EV game can somehow "will" long-term wins. (I am laughing but it really is sad)

No wonder you relate to Singer so strongly, as he also believes he can some how "will" longterm winning from a +EV game, by using progressions and stop limits and other voodoo (non-mathematical) garbage.

So yeah, I am in agreement with Axelwolf's "WOW". It explains a lot....along the lines of alternative reality.

[AxelWolf]

Alan, how does one know if they have a high SRR if they don't track their rolls?

Why do you think that it would be feasible to have some track your rolls(FOR FREE) long enough to confirm anything? Why do you think anyone would be interested in tracking YOUR rolls without an incentive. I can see someone possibly wanting to track a DI's shot that looks super good just to see if its possible.

What do you have against letting an individual book your action? I can't see how its different than getting paid or losing to the casino.

You should give keno a try, perhaps you are a better number picker than a random number picker.

[AxelWolf]

Gambling is not rocket science; whether you are smart or not should not be a factor.

Normally intelligent people have no problem grasping the rules and learning the best plays, i.e. the ones with the lowest house edge.

No, Einstein would probably have no greater advantage at a craps table than would anyone else.

The tough part is playing a disciplined game

Unless there's somthing special going on there are really no smart bets in craps, just less stupid ones. That goes for anything -EV. You can improve your chances of winning by simply using martingale. Improving your chances won't change EV.

If people want to have fun and play -EV games there's nothing wrong with that. Just don't try to fool yourself or others you have an advantage.

"The tough part is playing a disciplined game" What do you mean by that? if you are talking about having the discipline not to make higher HA bets, then I agree.

[Alan Mendelson]

Axel there's a difference between counting rolls to determine your SRR and counting which numbers you roll. And if you don't know that you're no craps player.

Frankly I don't think you are so future discussion with you is pointless, just as it is with kewlj who at least admits he knows nothing about craps and couldn't understand a betting strategy that would help a player.

In fact I think a continued discussion with all of you, with the exception of regnis, is not only a waste of my time bit is nothing more than banging my head against a brick wall. I'm done with this thread.

[LarryS]

Redietz I share your view. I think DI is not attainable by the masses. I don't think you can take a course and become a DI. Over the years I've seen three and maybe four players who might have influence over the dice. (Respects to regnis because I've never seen him shoot.)

But do you need to be a DI to have an edge at craps? I don't think so. If you are a smart bettor you can improve your chances of winning. And if you can make sense out of the performance of the shooter you can also improve your chance of winning.

Ever see a dark side bettor clean up at a table of wild dice throwers?

correction...
.if you play perfectly you will increase your chances of losing less

[RS__]

I love how Alan's talking like he's some craps expert....don't make bad high HE bets like hops, horns, hardways.....yet he thinks small/tall/all bet is good.

[Half Smoke]

*************************

It's incredible to me that this issue of people claiming to be able to get an edge at negative expectancy games keeps coming up over and over at all gambling forums.

These people want validation for their outrageous claims. The fact that they require validation shows that they themselves probably don't even believe it.

I admire the posters who continually shoot down the laughable falsehoods. I don't have the energy for it anymore.




""what can be asserted without evidence can be dismissed without evidence"

[a2a3dseddie]

I've never made a Field bet in my life. I was always told it's a bad bet to make. Someone would have to carefully explain it to me.

:OK, now for the field bet:

"If the field bet pays 2 to 1 on both the 2 and 12, then the house edge is 5.56%.
If the field bet pays 2 to 1 on the 2 and 3 to 1 on the 12, then the house edge is 2.78%.
If the field bet pays 3 to 1 on the 2 and 2 to 1 on the 12, then the house edge is 2.78%.
If the field bet pays 3 to 1 on both the 2 and 12, then the house edge is 0.00%."

Alan, if you have a high SRR, I take that to mean you are rolling a 7 less than 1 in 6 times?

Like I mentioned earlier, you should be playing the Iron Cross. Field bets and placing the 5,6 and 8. You'll get paid on every roll except for 7. You don't even need to start off with a Pass line bet. Then, place your Small, Tall and All bets and collect on every roll on your way there.

Does that sound like a viable strategy regnis?

[kewlJ]

In fact I think a continued discussion with all of you, with the exception of regnis, is not only a waste of my time bit is nothing more than banging my head against a brick wall.

Well good....then you know exactly how we feel with every thread / topic with you. Almost every discussion with you turns into an the Abbott & Costello baseball routine.

[mickeycrimm]

Aaron Hightower has returned to Wov. One of the interesting statements he has made is he believes there is a reason for the decreased payoffs on the small and tall, from 35 for 1 to 31 for 1.

Does anyone know if all Vegas casinos have done this? Or are their still places left with 35 for 1?

[jbjb]

Same reason casinos knock 8/5 BP down to 7/5 & 6/5. Or the flush on the Pair Plus bet on Three Card Poker went from 4 to 1 down to 3 to 1 in most places. To make MORE money.

[Alan Mendelson]

Eddie since you ask a good question and aren't attacking me I'll answer this. You wrote:

"Like I mentioned earlier, you should be playing the Iron Cross. Field bets and placing the 5,6 and 8. You'll get paid on every roll except for 7. You don't even need to start off with a Pass line bet. Then, place your Small, Tall and All bets and collect on every roll on your way there.

Does that sound like a viable strategy regnis?"

Let's say I have $10 on the field and $10 on the 5 and $12 on the 6 and the 8. The six and eight are always bet in units of 6 because the bets are paid 7 for 6.

Each time I roll a 5, 6 or 8 I will be paid $14 but the $10 on the field will be lost, giving me a net win of only $4.

Unlike the bets on 5, 6 and 8 which can win over and over again, a new field bet must be made on every roll.

Here's where the math doesn't give you the full story. The math gives you the payback on the field but it fails to remind you that you may have other bets on the table whose payoffs are reduced by losing field bets.

Because the field bet is a win or lose bet on each roll, just as hop bets and horn bets, they can whittle down your profits when other bets hit.

[Alan Mendelson]

Same reason casinos knock 8/5 BP down to 7/5 & 6/5. Or the flush on the Pair Plus bet on Three Card Poker went from 4 to 1 down to 3 to 1 in most places. To make MORE money.

Actually the reason was the Bonus Craps bets were getting hit too frequently at Bellagio. Bellagio was the first to cut the payouts and others followed.

Because of the frequent pays on Bonus Craps the profit margin was less than expected.

[Alan Mendelson]

*************************

It's incredible to me that this issue of people claiming to be able to get an edge at negative expectancy games keeps coming up over and over at all gambling forums.

These people want validation for their outrageous claims. The fact that they require validation shows that they themselves probably don't even believe it.

I admire the posters who continually shoot down the laughable falsehoods. I don't have the energy for it anymore.




""what can be asserted without evidence can be dismissed without evidence"

Yes I'm asking to be monitored and analyzed because I'm ahead at craps ONLY because of the Bonus Craps bets.

When Bonus Craps came around I found I was hitting Small or Tall twice a day on average. And you can throw in some ALLs occasionally.

But am I making passes? Not often.
Am I throwing hardways? Rarely. In fact I went three different days without a single hardway and RS__ should take note of that.
And while horn numbers are needed for the Bonus Craps bets I don't know when I'll throw a 2, 3, 11 or 12. Take notice of that too all of you field bettors.

[MisterV]

"The tough part is playing a disciplined game" What do you mean by that? if you are talking about having the discipline not to make higher HA bets, then I agree.

That, and being able to walk away when things are going badly.

Obviously I am discussing recreational gamblers and not AP's as there is no way to AP craps.

As I EXPECT to lose at craps, or slots, I approach it as a hobby with a cost attached to it, and I don't want the cost to exceed the value of the entertainment which playing the games affords me.

The goal of gambling within set limits can be tough to realize due to the addictive nature of casino games.

[a2a3dseddie]

Eddie since you ask a good question and aren't attacking me I'll answer this. You wrote:

"Like I mentioned earlier, you should be playing the Iron Cross. Field bets and placing the 5,6 and 8. You'll get paid on every roll except for 7. You don't even need to start off with a Pass line bet. Then, place your Small, Tall and All bets and collect on every roll on your way there.

Does that sound like a viable strategy regnis?"

Let's say I have $10 on the field and $10 on the 5 and $12 on the 6 and the 8. The six and eight are always bet in units of 6 because the bets are paid 7 for 6.

Each time I roll a 5, 6 or 8 I will be paid $14 but the $10 on the field will be lost, giving me a net win of only $4.

Unlike the bets on 5, 6 and 8 which can win over and over again, a new field bet must be made on every roll.

Here's where the math doesn't give you the full story. The math gives you the payback on the field but it fails to remind you that you may have other bets on the table whose payoffs are reduced by losing field bets.

Because the field bet is a win or lose bet on each roll, just as hop bets and horn bets, they can whittle down your profits when other bets hit.

But as long as you don't roll a 7, you would profit on every single roll, right?

[MisterV]

I haven't checked all the threads yet. Which threads have the offensive messages?...I am not understanding what is wrong with my bet. Didn't you say you have an edge in craps? If so, why not bet me that you will win?

Alan, you should offer a quid pro quo: offer to accept Dan's bet in exchange for him giving you moderator powers.

That way you'll both get what you want.

[mickeycrimm]

Only those with objectivity should moderate forums.

[mickeycrimm]

Does Alan realize that singer is the most egregious gay basher here?

[redietz]

Argentino pushes the storyline that he avoids Las Vegas due to gays, "noodle slurpers," and other minorities. Interesting storyline.