Originally Posted by

**Tasha**
Originally Posted by

**OnceDear**
There ya go Karen. A nice permanent, uneditable record of your dumbass predictions. We'll keep this safe for you along with your promise...

That might just been one of your stupidest posts ever.

Not really. I also said I would donate money to another certain website if none of my Pick 3 or Pick 4 predictions come up. I am THAT confident at least one of my picks is coming up that I made a foolhardy promise, twice.

OK. Let's do some estimating shall we.

The probability of one pick 3 number coming out in one draw is 1 in 1000

The probability of one pick 4 number coming out in one draw is 1 in 10000

Your selections covers 14 of the pick 3 possible outcomes and 11 of the pick 4 possible outcomes.

Your selections doesn't cover 986 of the pick 3 possible outcomes and 9989 of the pick 4 possible outcomes.

Let's look at the pick 3 draw...

for you to have a bad draw where none of your pick 3 numbers came out, the outcome must be one of the sets of numbers you didn't cover. That has probability of 986/1000.

Your forecast covers 2 daily draws for 14 days. that's 28 draws.

The probability that you won't have a successful pick 3 over all those draws is (986/1000)^28= 0.6738 or 67%

In other words, there is a 2/3 chance that you will be giving away $100...

... unless of course a pick 4 comes out, so lets do the math on that...

For you to have a bad draw where none of your pick 4 numbers came out, the outcome must be one of the sets of numbers you didn't cover. That has probability of 9989/10000.

Your forecast covers 2 daily draws for 14 days. that's 28 draws.

The probability that you won't have a successful pick 3 over all those draws is (9989/10000)^28= 0.96965 or 97%

Which is basically very slim fcuking chance.

So, what's the probability that you just gave away $100?

near as damn it 0.67 x 0.97 = 0.65 = 65%

And if one of your numbers does come up... Dan will give you zero.

A very generous offer you made.