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Thread: The 18 yo's

  1. #1
    While people with nothing left in life like mickey worry themselves to sleep over my 50 cent sequential draw royal and the odds of getting one, I'm going to school all you geniuses on why what Alan witnessed is entirely possible and why you folks just can't get over it....you know, like the poor whiny liberals can't get over the fact that their crooked, corrupt, incompetent lying candidate with the pervert husband lost out to a very superior opponent.

    As the days go by, we consistently see why Trump is one of if not the greatest president the world will ever see. And as time goes on, maybe some of you will become more capable of grasping the mathematics of what Alan simply reported on. And at the same time, I'll show you your glaring hypocrisy about gambling theory in general.

    Go into a casino and pick a craps table. Watch and record the throws for 15 hours. How many 11's did you see--20? 30? 40 or more? Hmm....

    Now ask yourself: what if they came out "in a row" and not dispersed among all the other throws? Possible? Of course....at least mathematically possible, which is the entire point here, especially among a bunch of armchair gambling theorists (and constipated stay-at-home "daddy" admins. from WoV ).

    But Einstein's, what is the prime directive when it comes to gambling theory? That's right! NO THROW THAT HAS ALREADY OCCURRED OR THAT IS YET TO OCCUR HAS ANY EFFECT ON OR RELATIONSHIP TO THE ONE YOU ARE ABOUT TO THROW.

    Yet you people insist on going against your gambling creed, and only because it was Alan who reported it. Think about that----a bunch of so-called "By The Book" AP's, trying to re-write the math books, and only because of someone who tosses the tough questions in your direction!

    Is there a craps bet that gives odds on how many times a particular number will be thrown consecutively? Then all of your stupid efforts to debunk what Alan saw is irrelevant. After-the-fact reality is one thing, and Alan explained what he saw. After the fact theory is something else, and is a non-starter. And any of you bozos who criticized him for not betting on 11 after seeing some thrown in a row only show your incompetence towards gambling probability. Remember? No one or more throws has any effect whatsoever on any that are yet to come? Remember, geniuses?

    Time to come clean on why you people are such hypocrites, even if it's from your safe armchairs.

  2. #2
    Originally Posted by Rob.Singer View Post
    While people with nothing left in life like mickey worry themselves to sleep over my 50 cent sequential draw royal and the odds of getting one, I'm going to school all you geniuses on why what Alan witnessed is entirely possible and why you folks just can't get over it....you know, like the poor whiny liberals can't get over the fact that their crooked, corrupt, incompetent lying candidate with the pervert husband lost out to a very superior opponent.

    As the days go by, we consistently see why Trump is one of if not the greatest president the world will ever see. And as time goes on, maybe some of you will become more capable of grasping the mathematics of what Alan simply reported on. And at the same time, I'll show you your glaring hypocrisy about gambling theory in general.

    Go into a casino and pick a craps table. Watch and record the throws for 15 hours. How many 11's did you see--20? 30? 40 or more? Hmm....

    Now ask yourself: what if they came out "in a row" and not dispersed among all the other throws? Possible? Of course....at least mathematically possible, which is the entire point here, especially among a bunch of armchair gambling theorists (and constipated stay-at-home "daddy" admins. from WoV ).

    But Einstein's, what is the prime directive when it comes to gambling theory? That's right! NO THROW THAT HAS ALREADY OCCURRED OR THAT IS YET TO OCCUR HAS ANY EFFECT ON OR RELATIONSHIP TO THE ONE YOU ARE ABOUT TO THROW.

    Yet you people insist on going against your gambling creed, and only because it was Alan who reported it. Think about that----a bunch of so-called "By The Book" AP's, trying to re-write the math books, and only because of someone who tosses the tough questions in your direction!

    Is there a craps bet that gives odds on how many times a particular number will be thrown consecutively? Then all of your stupid efforts to debunk what Alan saw is irrelevant. After-the-fact reality is one thing, and Alan explained what he saw. After the fact theory is something else, and is a non-starter. And any of you bozos who criticized him for not betting on 11 after seeing some thrown in a row only show your incompetence towards gambling probability. Remember? No one or more throws has any effect whatsoever on any that are yet to come? Remember, geniuses?

    Time to come clean on why you people are such hypocrites, even if it's from your safe armchairs.
    Good job.

    You successfully arrived at the point I made over five years ago:

    https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gamb...12/#post247105
    Last edited by Mission146; 07-31-2018 at 09:37 AM.

  3. #3

  4. #4
    I really hate that you brought this up Rob because it's a no win situation for me.

    But you mentioned some of the facts about craps correctly.

    Their disbelief comes both after the fact and before the fact and I'll explain.

    After the fact they can't believe the long odds that someone rolled the 11 eighteen times I'm a row, and the long odds tell them no one will throw an eleven 18 times in a row.

    Yet, it happened.

    The chance that an eleven will show when you roll two fair dice is 1/18. That's not astronomical odds and some players bet that.

    The odds on the next throw are also 1/18.
    The odds on the next throw are also 1/18.
    And so on.

    As you said they were bunched together. Out of all the millions of times these 11s came bunched together.

    They don't believe it but it happened.

    The world didn't end. The odds of it happening again are just as long as they were before but I wouldn't be surprised if it didn't happen again.

    A friend of mine said to me during the heat of this crisis (LOL it was a crisis that it hsppened) "if there are odds that something can happen then it can happen."

    Sure the odds were one in a gazillion but it happened. And I don't make bets on the yo and neither did that shooter.

    The world didn't end.

  5. #5
    Originally Posted by Mission146 View Post
    Good job.

    You successfully arrived at the point I made over five years ago:

    https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gamb...12/#post247105
    I don't remember this but thank you Mission. It does make perfect sense.

  6. #6
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    Originally Posted by Mission146 View Post
    Good job.

    You successfully arrived at the point I made over five years ago:

    https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gamb...12/#post247105
    I don't remember this but thank you Mission. It does make perfect sense.
    You're welcome.

  7. #7
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    Originally Posted by Mission146 View Post
    Good job.

    You successfully arrived at the point I made over five years ago:

    https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gamb...12/#post247105
    I don't remember this but thank you Mission. It does make perfect sense.
    Reading thru some of that, it's obvious the "math" people on WoV just didn't like what he saw, similar to the rejects who migrated over to here. And all they've done is prove how little they really know--or want to know--about what really happens when actually gambling. They even turned on mission when everyone could see the common and mathematical sense presented.

    The problem seems to be more and more, that those of us who actually go to casinos really do experience a lot both ways, and those who sit back and do nothing but analyze and theorize become critics of anything that falls within their definition of being "too hard to happen". Look at how mickey is so beside himself after my reporting a mere 50c royal. Big whoop. A $25k hit is no life-changer to me, but because such a hit would make his life, suddenly it's a nearly impossible feat.

    My SPS strategy and my results playing it that critics like to rag on, is nothing more than a simple take on the fact that anything can and DOES happen in gambling, regardless of the odds. You just never know. Some of these infrequent occurrences happen on their own while others take quite a bit of human intelligence and manipulation in order to occur.

    Stop being hypocrites and wise up.

  8. #8
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    Originally Posted by Mission146 View Post
    Good job.

    You successfully arrived at the point I made over five years ago:

    https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gamb...12/#post247105
    I don't remember this but thank you Mission. It does make perfect sense.
    This is worth a double.

    Reading thru some of that, it's obvious the "math" people on WoV just didn't like what he saw, similar to the rejects who migrated over to here. And all they've done is prove how little they really know--or want to know--about what really happens when actually gambling. They even turned on mission when everyone could see the common and mathematical sense presented.

    The problem seems to be more and more, that those of us who actually go to casinos really do experience a lot both ways, and those who sit back and do nothing but analyze and theorize become critics of anything that falls within their definition of being "too hard to happen". Look at how mickey is so beside himself after my reporting a mere 50c royal. Big whoop. A $25k hit is no life-changer to me, but because such a hit would make his life, suddenly it's a nearly impossible feat.

    My SPS strategy and my results playing it that critics like to rag on, is nothing more than a simple take on the fact that anything can and DOES happen in gambling, regardless of the odds. You just never know. Some of these infrequent occurrences happen on their own while others take quite a bit of human intelligence and manipulation in order to occur.

    Stop being hypocrites and wise up.

  9. #9
    Originally Posted by Rob.Singer View Post
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    Originally Posted by Mission146 View Post
    Good job.

    You successfully arrived at the point I made over five years ago:

    https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gamb...12/#post247105
    I don't remember this but thank you Mission. It does make perfect sense.
    This is worth a double.

    Reading thru some of that, it's obvious the "math" people on WoV just didn't like what he saw, similar to the rejects who migrated over to here. And all they've done is prove how little they really know--or want to know--about what really happens when actually gambling. They even turned on mission when everyone could see the common and mathematical sense presented.

    The problem seems to be more and more, that those of us who actually go to casinos really do experience a lot both ways, and those who sit back and do nothing but analyze and theorize become critics of anything that falls within their definition of being "too hard to happen". Look at how mickey is so beside himself after my reporting a mere 50c royal. Big whoop. A $25k hit is no life-changer to me, but because such a hit would make his life, suddenly it's a nearly impossible feat.

    My SPS strategy and my results playing it that critics like to rag on, is nothing more than a simple take on the fact that anything can and DOES happen in gambling, regardless of the odds. You just never know. Some of these infrequent occurrences happen on their own while others take quite a bit of human intelligence and manipulation in order to occur.

    Stop being hypocrites and wise up.
    there are alot of gullible people in this world. They believe stories of 18yos in a row. They beleive that time shares are good "investments". they believe in bigfoot, they believe they have a system in gambling or stock picking.

    everyone can make themselves believe anything that they are told because there is always the possibility that its true.

    I have empathy for people who go through life with this attitude and world view.

    they are the first ones that conmen will look to find. The wide eye dopes who think "anything is possble".

    its a sick gamblers mantra. Its what keeps them playing.

    If 18 yos in a row are possible...then I might get a magic roll one day where I make back all my lifetime losses.

    using that theory....then 50 yos in a row are possible. Or 1000 yos in a row are possible,

    And its [possible to watch 50 yos in a row and never make a bet.....just stand there like a mope and do nothing. Just let life pass you by. Dont even put a dollar on it for kicks. Nope. Stand there with your dick in your hand like the dunce who stood there and watched 18 yos in a row without putting out a crisp one dollar bill for the fun of it.

    the one thing more incredible about the claim that 18 yos in a row were witnessed....is the declaration that not a single bet was made at an almost empty table by the observer.

    but "anything is possible"

  10. #10
    Originally Posted by LarryS View Post
    but "anything is possible"
    Not 18 yo's in a row.

    No verification from anyone other than alan, he who revels in attention as much or even more than KJ.

    Had the wiz said he saw it I might pay attention, but coming from alan it is just more bullshit.

    It is not enough that something is possible; you must weigh the probability, and in alan's case the math is very much against him.

    That is fine for an innumerate such as our defrocked TV news reporter, but not for someone who doesn't need to uses his fingers to count to ten and his toes to count to twenty

    Just sayin'.
    What, Me Worry?

  11. #11
    Alan, can you tell me the approximate date this supposed event occurred(perhaps you allready answered my question and I missed it?) As I mentioned previously, I meet a guy who worked survalance at Ceasars. Perhaps he will back up your claim, who knows.

  12. #12
    That WOV thread is five years old. That's how long I've been dealing with the insults and the statements that it's impossible from people who weren't there.

  13. #13
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    That WOV thread is five years old. That's how long I've been dealing with the insults and the statements that it's impossible from people who weren't there.
    IIRC it took you a couple of years to report it

  14. #14
    Originally Posted by AxelWolf View Post
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    That WOV thread is five years old. That's how long I've been dealing with the insults and the statements that it's impossible from people who weren't there.
    IIRC it took you a couple of years to report it
    I don't think it was more than a week. I returned to Caesars about a week after all the crap started on WOV to try to get the tape and they told me the tape was gone. It's also when I found out James had retired.

  15. #15
    The odds of 18 yos in a row are 1 in 2.1 sextillion -- and that's if you already have started with 1 yo already rolled.

    The odds of 18 yos in a row starting from the next roll are 1 in 39 sextillion.

    But let's go with the 2.1 sextillion figure.

    What is a a sextillion?

    It's a billion trillions.

    That's insane.

    So let's say I had my computer pick a random number from 1 to a trillion. Then you had to guess it.

    Then, if by some miracle you guessed it, I would then tell you to pick a random number between 1 and 2.1 billion, and once again you'd have to match the number randomly selected on my computer.

    The odds of doing BOTH of these things consecutively are the same odds of seeing 18 yos in a row.

    Or, simply put, impossible or all practical purposes.

    Here's another way of putting it:

    Let's say Alan went the casino every day and watched 1000 hands of craps being played.

    Let's say that he was an immortal being and was able to do this every day for 5,750 YEARS.

    There would still be only a 1 in a trillion chance of seeing 18 yos in a row.

    Didn't happen.
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  16. #16
    Except, Dan, it happened.
    Each time there's a 1/18 chance of rolling a yo.

  17. #17
    alan, you are as innumerate as an anvil and as honest as Herr Trump.
    What, Me Worry?

  18. #18
    When the math guys and Mission146 explained it I was thinking it might be possible.

    When Dan Druff explained it the way he did I now realize Alan Mentlehead is lying.

  19. #19
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    Except, Dan, it happened.
    Each time there's a 1/18 chance of rolling a yo.
    You're looking at the event in a rear view mirror. At the table each yo had a 1/18 chance of happening. It's not so unbelievable that way is it?

  20. #20
    Originally Posted by monet View Post
    When the math guys and Mission146 explained it I was thinking it might be possible.

    When Dan Druff explained it the way he did I now realize Alan Mentlehead is lying.
    Here we go again. I'm out of this discussion.

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