Man, imagine what that tape would be worth now...
Man, imagine what that tape would be worth now...
Dan D explained it perfectly. It never happened.
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
so there is a chance
That's a quote from dumb and dumber, right. LOL!
“So you’re telling me there’s a chance.”
I simply took Alan's word for it, as from the 4 years I've been here his word seems good. Screw the "math".
sometimes someone is called out in telling a lie and at that moment at the very beginning....they can come clean and all if forgotten...or they can double down and insist they are telling the truth. In life as with blackjack....you have to know when to double down.
Alan made a double down error
According to casino.org your chances of seeing a UFO are 1 in 168,700 in the USA.
90-95% of sightings are not so U-FOs. They could be weather events, military tests or other events. Although, there are still many UFO sightings that simply can't be explained.
You can check the odds on each individual state at this website...
https://www.casino.org/ufo-odds/
How many UFO's will you witness before you see 18 Yo's in a row, live and in person, at a Casino???
What a coincidence. In 1967, I was in Norfolk, Virginia selling books as a 20 year old college student trying to earn money during summer break. As I left a household one night, I was surprised to see a fireball above me-best described as a miniature replica of the sun! I stood there staring in wonder when in an instant it dashed to the night sky to my left. After my eyes adjusted to the far distant stars where it appeared to have gone, I saw multiple red flashing lights. Ocassionly, one or more would dash sideways- in an instant. Suddenly I hear the roar of jet engines as jets filled the Norfolk skies. One by one the little red lights disappeared as the jets drew closer. Later that year, several of us guys would stand outside the college dorm and watch this phenomenon as they moved instantaneously before leaving. After all the news media started the UFO craze, the sightings died down. Go ahead and make fun- some of my best friends still do. But I know what I experienced.Originally Posted by monet
Alan is NOT a credible source! He's no different then the suckers at blackjack or carnival games thinking the side bets are "where the money is."Originally Posted by slingshot
Originally Posted by Mission146
you concluded that it was possible. interesting. but is there some point where you would say something similar is impossible?
for example: what if somebody said they were throwing dice for fun and the dice and the throw were totally random and this person said:
"I threw 500 yo's in a row."
possible or impossible?
please don't feed the trolls
yet with all the video technology that every person in the USA has access to at armslength.....there are no more convincing photos than 60 years ago when people took the pics with a kodak brownieOriginally Posted by slingshotWhat a coincidence. In 1967, I was in Norfolk, Virginia selling books as a 20 year old college student trying to earn money during summer break. As I left a household one night, I was surprised to see a fireball above me-best described as a miniature replica of the sun! I stood there staring in wonder when in an instant it dashed to the night sky to my left. After my eyes adjusted to the far distant stars where it appeared to have gone, I saw multiple red flashing lights. Ocassionly, one or more would dash sideways- in an instant. Suddenly I hear the roar of jet engines as jets filled the Norfolk skies. One by one the little red lights disappeared as the jets drew closer. Later that year, several of us guys would stand outside the college dorm and watch this phenomenon as they moved instantaneously before leaving. After all the news media started the UFO craze, the sightings died down. Go ahead and make fun- some of my best friends still do. But I know what I experienced.Originally Posted by monet
i am not saying i dont think other life is out there....i am saying..for gods sake ...take a fucking pic.....someone please
Half Smoke,
To the extent that dice can be thrown 500 times, 500 elevens in a row is possible.
If it weren't possible, then the sum of all, "Possible," results of 500 throws of the dice would be less than one, which is not acceptable.
I never said that I think Alan's story happened. I never said that I think it didn't happen. I just said, "Not impossible," because mathematically, it's not. That must be a possible result, or math has no meaning.
what fucking wishy washy splitting of hairs, look at me I know the definition of the word "possible" crap is spewed by mission
yes we all know the word "possible" and what it means. Its possible for a bat to fly out of your ass. So what.
iTS POSSIBLE THAT YOUR CHILDREN ARE NOT BIOLOGICALLY YOURS......even if a DNA test comes back 99.9 percent that you are the father.
do you play those games with your kids? Hey kids there is a possibly that I am not your biological father..i just wanted to be intellectually honest kids..so there is always a chance someone else is your real biological dad.
Is that how you live your life. Or do you feel based on reality and what you know....that some things are impossible in a laymans everyday vernacular...rather than in a nuclear physics vernacular or existential vernacular .
this is a message board of average gamblers, leading everyday lives......we talk about everyday things.....in this case we are not pondering the scientific meaning of the word impossible. Its ok to tell your kids that you are their biological father even though every test will come back less than 100 percent. ITS OK.....to say 18 yos in a row is impossible based on the math and the eye test. And based on the reaction of the person watching the 18 yos in a row. where he did nothing but watch on a mainly empty table.
yes we all know 99.9 ppercent leaves an opening that you are not the kid's biological father. You can fuck your kids in the brain by living life like that. But i doubt they will call you a lair years later when they find out that DNA tests dont prove things to a certainty if you told them that you were without a doubt their biological father. Its ok to say that.
LarryS,
You're really getting close to me blocking you. There's really no quicker way to irritate me than false equivalence and that seems to be your go-to debate strategy.
Anyway, tell me that, in eighteen rolls, that eighteen elevens in a row is absolutely 100% impossible and I'll call you an idiot. If that's impossible, then rolling a pair of dice eighteen times is just as impossible because you can't have a set of all possibilities in eighteen rolls whose probability does not add up to 1. Which is to say 100%.
It's really that simple.
Both math and words do, and should, have meaning.
What you have is probability. Did Alan witness eighteen Yo's in a row? Probably not. Does he think he did? I would say probably, only because of the vehemence with which he maintains his position. Will anyone on Earth ever witness eighteen elevens in a row (or witness it again)? Probably not anybody alive today.
You have hit the hardest part of the story for me to believe. I am not and will not call Alan a liar, but I find it hard to believe that four of the most disciplined gamblers in the world happened to be at the table that night. I know the odds and house edge, and I'm very disciplined, but at about six in a row I start putting a little on Yo and by the time that nineteenth roll fails, I still leave the table with a few thousand dollars profit, minimum. I'm going to assume the dice are somehow loaded, honestly.
So, yes, there are real world concerns. But, that doesn't mean I am going to let someone say it is, "Impossible," and leave that unchallenged. If that is impossible, then it's impossible to roll dice eighteen times. You'll find that any sequence of eighteen rolls is near, "Impossible," when isolated, but one sequence of eighteen rolls must happen.
Whoa, you too?Originally Posted by slingshot
What were you on: barrel or blotter acid?
What, Me Worry?
Usually mathboys are slow on the uptake so I will lay it out for you.
The discussion at hand isnt whether 18 yos in a row is "possible". Dan already described very well in numbers how possible it is. Any dope can figure out that if its possible to ro11 one yo, then its possible to roll 18 in a row,
But the discussion always has been....is alan a liar.
And based on the probability and the action of himself and the gamblers at the table not making a single bet on the yo......i contend, MrV contends, Dan contends and others contend...that ity never happened and alan is perpetuating a lie . Some would say as a pattern of behavior.
Sometimses its ok in the course of living a life to round up from 99.9 to 100 without going out on a limb. Its ok to say that you are 100 percent the father of your kids....even though no test will get to that number. In a sane society there is no difference between 99.9 and 100. But in the world of a mathboy...well the mathboys can argue over .00000001 percent as if it makes a fucking difference to everyday reality.
Everyone here knows the difference between impossible and improbable.......but there is a difference between me saying.."its impossible to roll 18 yos in a row".......and its impossible that alan saw 18 yos in a row.. Based on the improbability and the human behavior attached to the event.....I have no problem calling BS and caling it a lie.
LarryS,
Congratulations, you're the pot.
Rob Singer made an OP that basically amounted to saying eighteen Yo's in a row is mathematically possible. He also said:
Which I took to mean me because I am the only male here who I believe was ever an Admin at WoV.
Therefore, I followed his post up with a quote of a post of mine from over five years ago pointing out that I already said it's mathematically possible. This was in response to his OP which directly argued that it's mathematically possible.
But, you're clearly a little slow on the uptake. I have to believe you read everything twice by now, maybe try three times?
On Alan:
I would argue that, at a minimum, Alan believes that it happened. It's quite a common occurrence in the human condition to misremember an event, especially given a long enough passage of time. These events usually end up being romanticized and exaggerated to the misremembering. Very rarely is the scope of the event diminished.
If there's no difference between 99.9% and 100%, then you should pick a sports team, start with a low enough bet amount, and Martingale the shit out of it. You fucking genius. Of course there's a fucking difference between those two numbers, or nothing means anything.
No, there is a difference. Why? Because if eighteen Yo's in a row ever does happen, someone will be there. Namely, at least the person rolling the dice...unless a machine is rolling them, for some reason.
Two Other Things:
I'm quickly losing my patience, so I'll keep this quick:
1.) As the sample size goes up, the probability that one set of eighteen rolls that has taken place yielding eighteen Yo's in a row constantly increases. If the human race exists and continues to play craps for a long enough period of time, the probability that one set of eighteen rolls yielded that result will eventually surpass 50%. Given an even longer period of time, that probability will be 99.9%, which you seem to think is just as good as 100%.
2.) At what point does it become impossible? When is a certain number of Yo's in a row unacceptable to you? Seventeen? Nine? Three?
What we do know is that, at some point with a fair pair of dice, the most elevens in a row has been rolled. We don't know how many it was, and there might be a tie for first place, but it happened. More than that, I imagine whoever told the story of that, whether it be twelve times, thirteen, whatever number...was doubted.
But, at some point, the most Yo's in a row to this point has been rolled. At some point, whatever that record is, it will likely be eclipsed if we, as a species, play craps long enough.
Anyway, where you say, "Impossible," I say, "Extremely unlikely." In fact, there is almost no limit to the number of superlatives I would be willing to put before the word, "Unlikely," but after the word, "Extremely." I'm not willing to say, "Impossible," because:
1.) I wasn't there.
2.) It's not mathematically impossible.
I don't speak with 100% surety to events that I was not present to witness. If that's not good enough for you, go fuck yourself.
Last edited by Mission146; 08-03-2018 at 06:52 PM.
While I prefer to stay in the bleachers. I need to say a few things.
Initially, when Mission posted his link to the other website, I though he was using numbers to support a cause. I was wrong. All he has been doing is using math to state that an event is mathematically possible. Period.
Personally, the phrase I love to use is that the event is possible but improbable (jeez, does that cover both arguments?).
If we asked TV/Movie characters about this subject; Spock would state, "Highly unlikely.", while Archie Bunker and Dirty Harry would say, "Impossible.". Individuals can pick their favorite response.
Then again, 120 years ago if the argument was about landing a man on the moon, the mathboys would say, "Highly unlikely.", while others would state it is impossible as no one can get something in the air for 100 yards.
Personally, there are many things stated on this forum that takes time for me to digest, but math is not one of them.
I do not care about what could have occurred at the craps table, I care about ignoring the math, even if you disagree with it.
this goes back years ago when alan could not hide behind "mis-remembering". He was called out when he mentioned it..and he chose not to back down so he is stuck with this lying story. Sometimes you have to fold em. He never did. Instead of folding he doubled down and stormed away from wov as if to say...fuck everyone if they dont want to believe me.Originally Posted by Mission146
When in reality...he made his own bed and he knew it. A bed mad for lying.
So then if the percent of not rolling 18 yos in a row out of 100 of rolling 18 yos in a row is 99.99999999999999999999 against......Its ok to round up. Its just that in instances like this sane people know its ok to round up. The math boys like you will agonize over that .0000000000000000000001 as if its important in the real world.
Oh yeah in the world of numbers you can have an orgasm discussing the value of that infinitesimal amount...you can argue about it and talk about all the possibilities, calculate it out, make a portfolio of possibilities and probabilities.
While sane people go through the day having rounded up and moving on to draw real conclusions based on reality that matters...not based on mathematical insignificant shit
you should get away from math for a while.........ever see the movie Pi?..from like 20 years ago? You remind me of the main character
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