Chip inventory question

[Rob.Singer]

Some of your AP claims have gone off the deep end. I remember when mickeycrimm was hunting for those ready to hit progressives on low denomination machines in Montana bars. Now he's earning $68k net profit by mid August. Allow me to be skeptical. I had a very successful news career being skeptical. As we say in the consumer protection business "when something sounds too good to be true it probably is too good to be true."

Be skeptical all you want. But also pay attention. I started that road pic thread a year ago. There must be pics of a hundred casinos by now, and I know there are about 20 states involved. Hard to be in all those spots and be in Montana too. I'm not spending much time there these days although I'm still paying rent on an apartment.

I spent June in Montana then took off out of state again. There's a reason for it. I can always count on making 50K a year back home. But right now it's worth twice as much out of state. You see, Alan, there has been a recent development in AP machine play. A new generation of exploitable video games has hit the casinos nationwide. They started coming out in 2016 and there are still new exploitable games coming out every month. It's a renaissance similar to the golden age of machine AP, late nineties to early 2000's. These games are in 90% of the casinos in this country. Everywhere I go there they are. And it's easier than shit. Just mosey around the casino and pick off money.

And I guarantee you this, Alan. They are in the casinos you frequent is Las Vegas. You walk by them every time you are in a casino and don't know it. But since you and some others here don't give a rats ass about machine AP I won't bore you with the names of those games.

And leave it to you to be too dumb to know when you're using tons of BS after getting caught contradicting yourself, and to claim to be winning consistently on slot machines in Indian casinos.

[Rob.Singer]

I don't need to prove anything about blackjack. Any of you could easily do what I do. Just go out and find the opportunities.

You sent me a video of your opportunity. It's real. But it's also too rare. Even if the dealer exposed cards the way your video showed it is not something that could be consistent unlike card counting in blackjack. And since seeing the cards comes AFTER you place your initial bet the reality is you're only hoping that the dealer will make the same error so you can increase the bet in the hand you're playing at that moment. In other words you're gambling that the dealer will keep making the same error. Is that really an advantage play?

I suspect the answer to this--and why one hasn't been manufactured as of yet--will be somewhat similar to the nonsense you got from kew and his "supporters" when repeatedly pressed about his two-table lie: "the phenomenon doesn't have to happen all the time....just guess right and there's your AP advantage right there".

If everyone remembers, when the tough questions kept coming about the two-table fiasco, these ap's finally relented into "well, the count doesn't need to be THAT accurate!" which to any intelligent mind immediately contradicted their claims about how counting provides such a slight edge that requires a "long grind". Now, suddenly, the second table count is allowed to be so-so for the advantage.

Stick around for 500 days and you'll see 500 different ap tales that always end up with foot-in-mouth.

[kewlJ]

If everyone remembers, when the tough questions kept coming about the two-table fiasco, these ap's finally relented into "well, the count doesn't need to be THAT accurate!" which to any intelligent mind immediately contradicted their claims about how counting provides such a slight edge that requires a "long grind". Now, suddenly, the second table count is allowed to be so-so for the advantage.

I hope everyone remembers it because gaining an advantage from a partial count is a mathematically proven principal. EVERY count in regards to card counting is a partial count...unless the game is dealt to the very last card. Those cards behind the shuffle point are unseen cards. All that happens if you miss seeing a couple cards is that number of unseen cards grows a bit. This is not desirable, but it doesn't change the principal of card counting, where an advantage is gained by the cards that are seen. This is a proven mathematical fact.

I am not surprised you have trouble understanding such a proven mathematical fact. I mean we are talking about a guy who goes against the proven principals of mathematics, in favor of voodoo fantasies, like that he won a million dollars grinding away at a -EV game using completely voodoo principals (against proven math) of progressive betting and stop limits.

The fact is I have proven mathematical principals and facts on my side, you have voodoo concepts and fantasies on your side and all the vitriol and hate that you spew in an attempt to deflect from that truth can't change that.

[kewlJ]

You anti-AP guys are just so bitter and angry. Just look how angry coach belly got several times today. Over what?

In the real world he would probably find himself locked up somewhere. On any other forum, he would have been suspended or banned. But here, it is just part of the everyday hate, and anger that is expressed.

[Ozzy]

Jbjb ( Ibeatyouraces) maybe a lot of things, but you can be assured he makes his living via AP.

Fuck you Ozzy, you sissy cheerleader.

You've been claiming to stalk IBYA from behind trashcans for years, like a fucking coward,
but jbjb has always denied that he is IBYA.

So shut the fuck up until jbjb confirms your suspicions.

Hey coach why don't you go put your nose up Robs ass where it belongs you homo!! Your anything but a coach I can envision a fat slob behind your bad ass name.

[Moses]

And sadly, your final line, and observation, proves once again, this forum can't be changed into something constructive, useful and beneficial to others. It is what it is....a troll site. And that's what it always comes back to.

Once again you lose all credibility while trying to make yourself sound magnanimous. You stated your income and then screwed up the numbers to back it up. Of course, that is the forums fault. These guys read you like a book and YOU don't like it. Well, boo fucking woo.

[Moses]

You anti-AP guys are just so bitter and angry. Just look how angry coach belly got several times today. Over what? .

He is a news Flash/False. Deception and lies piss people off. Don't believe me? Go back and read some of the posts you made reagarding Flash. Some of your best work, I might add.

In the real world he would probably find himself locked up somewhere..

So now you're a judge?

On any other forum, he would have been suspended or banned. But here, it is just part of the everyday hate, and anger that is expressed.

You should know. Let's do the short list. Name the forums you do like and haven't been 86ed.

[Alan Mendelson]

I don't play card table games so I'm asking for information. Mickeycrimm says it's "huge" knowing the dealer's hole card. My question is how huge is it? In a game such as Mississippi Stud knowing one card is worth what? Isn't it about 2% and is 2% "huge"?

Regarding not knowing how machine free play works: is there anyone who has been in a casino even once who doesn't understand the concept of free play?

Frankly you have to be in a bubble to be any kind of experienced player to earn the claim of "AP" but not know what free play is all about.

Jbjb lost points with that slip up. It made it appear he never actually played in a casino but just participated in forums.

I give him the benefit of the doubt.

[jbjb]

I never used free slot play in that manner. I'll take the lost points.

[Kim Lee]

So the count was positive and he still lost $8800?

Kewlj has always provided remarkably consistent explanations. Suppose his expected value is $50 per hour with a standard deviation of $2,000 per hour. Then in a four-hour playing day, he will average $200 with a standard deviation of $4,000. According to the normal distribution, 68% of these daily results will be in [-$3800,+$4200], and 95% of these daily results will be in [-$7800,+8200]. But 2.5% of the days will lose more than $7,800. It's called bad luck; how can you not understand?

I've never had a profitable year in a casino even getting two $100k royals in one year -- both of them seeded with $2500 of free play.

Why does one need to conserve chips on just $1,500 a week? That's 3 pinks a week spread over how many casinos?

If you aren't trolling, then you are confusing expected value with standard deviation. His typical session fluctuations might be $500-$2,000. Buying chips slows down the game, and cashing chips wastes more time. It is quicker to just save chips if you are playing regularly. You can maintain convenient inventory by only cashing out big winners and buying more chips where you lose.

[Moses]

Kim Lee: No. I'm not trolling. My blackjack income is similar. Chips have never been an issue. Exposing and then capitalizing on value is the key. Since we lose if our opponent cries Uncle, then enduring such large swings of cash is a high risk.

Several years ago, when I lived outside of Nevada, I would buy in for large amounts. But it wasn't necessarily for blackjack. It was because I didn't want to carry around and count out large sums of cash. Hence, 4 pinks in the pockets goes without notice. 20 $100s makes a bulge. And I was lugging around a hell of a lot more than that. Of course, this created one helluva stir. So one day the pit boss cornered me. He said, "in the future, come to me, and I'll get you the pinks you need."

Why make simple complex?

[Moses]

Kim Lee: It seems you are using fancy words on Mendel, Mendel to make losing sound as though it's a good thing in search of the almighty T3 EV.

In the words of the late great Vince Lombardi "winning isn't everything, it's the ONLY thing." In other words, coming in 2nd really sucks. Now, Coach Lombardi clarified his statement years later to "if all your efforts go into to winning, then you will be a victorious." However, he wouldn't have won two Super Bowls if the Chiefs and Raiders would have been declared the victors by forfeiting. So victory in blackjack is a little bit trickier. Get in. Get paid. Get out.

[kewlJ]

Kewlj has always provided remarkably consistent explanations. Suppose his expected value is $50 per hour with a standard deviation of $2,000 per hour. Then in a four-hour playing day, he will average $200 with a standard deviation of $4,000.

Hello Kim Lee. Thank you for the kind words. Are you 'the' Kim Lee from BJ21 years ago, that I used to converse with privately? The Kim Lee of "your bankroll is all of your entire wealth mentality" that I have never been able to wrap my head around.

Anyway, welcome either way. It didn't take you long to identify Moses as a troll. I made a mistake the other night posting that I averaged $1500 a day, instead of $1500 a week, which I meant to say. A simple typo. I corrected and clarified it 20 minutes later, before anyone responded. I noted at that time that the anti-AP trolls would jump all over a simple typo. And to there credit most did not. Only Moses, did. That alone tells you what he is about.

Edit: oh I posted before I read your PM. I also just saw your email from a couple days ago. Good to be back in touch and again welcome. Not sure you will find this site to your liking though. There is an anti-AP fraction here that believes the earth is flat, that progressive betting can turn a -EV game to +EV and in the Easter bunny and big foot.

For those that may not be familiar with Kim Lee.....This is a guy that knows how to think outside the box in terms of AP play and success.

[Moses]

KJ. You friggin idiot. I never made mention of your stupid $1500 day/week error. What I mentioned was you claiming to average $200 per session at 6-10 sessions per day. Have you ever actually played the game? I mean without your panties not on backwards? So you're playing 5-6 days a week. That leaves you somewhere between 30 and 60 sessions a week. Your numbers simply do not back up your claims. In other words, you're full of shit...and everyone here can see it.

[kewlJ]

KJ. You friggin idiot. I never made mention of your stupid error. What I mentioned was you claiming to average $200 per session at 6-10 sessions per day.

It is the same error moses! I made the mistake of posting $1500 a day instead of $1500 a week. Then I broke that down by session, which because of the initial error was also wrong. I knew it didn't sound right when I posted it, as I play very short sessions, sometimes as short as a few minutes and I know I don't average $200 a session. Again, I wish I did.

It was fairly late at night, so then I went to take my shower and started thinking about it and realized my mistake. By the time I got back online 20 minutes later, I was unable to edit my post. I guess Dan has initiated some short time frame for edits that he didn't tell us about. By that time, one of two members that were online at the time also PMed me, alerting me to the typo mistake. So I went ahead and corrected and clarified it in a new post, before anyone had responded.

So, screw you moses. I made a typo mistake.

[Moses]

For those that may not be familiar with Kim Lee.....This is a guy that knows how to think outside the box in terms of AP play and success.

I'm sure Mr. Lee is a very smart man. But do we really need your Rah Rah Sis Boom Bah's? Give it a rest KJ. It's not about who you know. It's about what you know. And you don't know much. You mentioned you haven't corresponded with him in years. Again, the great KJ fails miserably in his attempt to make himself sound magnanimous.

[Moses]

[QUOTE=kewlJ;70898]

So, screw you moses. I made a typo mistake.

No screw you KJ. I got you exactly where I want you. Caught in your own web of lies. So you meant to say you make $1,500 a week on just 6 to 10 sessions? BULLSHIT. If you don't average $200 per session then why did you post it? You made a big deal out of the word "average." Again, you mislead these folks and then blame them for questioning?

[kewlJ]

You should know. Let's do the short list. Name the forums you do like and haven't been 86ed.

Moses, I have been banned at 2 forums, both because of one person, "Mr QFIT". He owned one of the forums, and begged/demanded his friend at the other ban me. And I think you know this, but you are letting whatever issue you have with me, cloud your telling of the truth.

And it is interesting...this person in question, Mr Q, has been feuding with different members of the blackjack AP community for decades. Some pretty big names in the blackjack AP community. I was actually just reminded very recently by a private contact of some of the names this individual has been at war with over the years, mostly before my time. Some very big and respected names in our community's history. Is it possible all these people, all successful blackjack players are wrong and "Mr Wonderful" is always right? Or is he one of these people that always must be feuding with someone, and as he recently proved, is unable to get past his grudges and move forward.

[Moses]

KJ. How would I know how many forums you've been banned? I simply observed you trash talk most all of them including this one.

As for Norm. Why does he do what he do? Because he can. I guess. But no fucking way will he ever take away my rights to freedom of speech.

Standing up for yourself against Norm, Flash, and others was admirable. But then you killed all your fine work by trying to kiss his ass, sneak back in, and expected to be welcomed with open arms. C'mon maaan. That is just sheer lunacy. You're smarter and better than that. No?

[kewlJ]

KJ. How would I know how many forums you've been banned? I simply observed you trash talk most all of them including this one.

As for Norm. Why does he do what he do? Because he can. I guess. But no fucking way will he ever take away my rights to freedom of speech.

Standing up for yourself against Norm, Flash, and others was admirable. But then you killed all your fine work by trying to kiss his ass, sneak back in, and expected to be welcomed with open arms. C'mon maaan. That is just sheer lunacy. You're smarter and better than that. No?

But he HAS taken away your right to free speech....at least in the blackjack community moses! Just as he did mine. You doing your little ranting and "mirror" discussions, on a site, zenzone, that you are the only member is not you exercising freedom of speech. Norm has taken that from you, just as he did me, creeping panther, Zengrifter, Automonkey, Zenking, and many, many more.

More importantly than free speech, he has taken away the right of other members, to hear my opinions, thoughts and experiences, as well as YOUR opinions, thoughts and experiences (crazy as they might be) and Zenking's, CP's, Zengrifter's thoughts and experiences.

And yes, he has reduced me to this site....and yes I bad mouth this site, because it is ridiculous. We are not discussing Vegas, or casinos as the name suggests. We are not discussion blackjack or any other casino games in a productive manner that might benefit anyone else. We are arguing if AP even exists with AP haters that refuse to believe anyone can make money from the casinos. It literally is like we are arguing the Easter Bunny or the earth is flat. So yeah, I am a little angry about that....that this is what this site is, despite Dan's promise months ago, to go in a more productive direction.