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Thread: My free play results

  1. #121
    Originally Posted by jbjb View Post
    If I had a choice of either just a pass/don't bet or just being able to bet odds, I'll take odds all day. But since they're tied together, I'll just pass, pardon the pun, on both.
    Odds bets are 0 EV, so betting them has a negligible effect on your bottom line, assuming exactly average luck. Of course, the higher the odds bets, the greater variance introduced.

    The advice of "don't take odds bets" comes from the school of thought that you're just introducing a lot of extra variance to gain exactly 0 EV, so why bother?

    I partially agree. However, if in a situation where you're trying to run up coin-in (such as a craps machine which somehow comps, for example), then it's better to throw the odds bets out there.

    The odds bets are also better if you can use them to mostly replace your pass line bets.

    So if you typically like betting $100/hand on the pass line, and you're at a place with 100x odds, then you're better off doing $1 on the pass line and $100 on odds.

    But since most places don't offer 100x odds -- and if they did, they minimum bet usually is far higher than $1 -- this typically isn't feasible.
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  2. #122
    Just separated out three discussions from this thread:

    Auto-hold flaw of VP machines: https://vegascasinotalk.com/forum/sh...play-optimally

    Discussion of limping with AA in poker: https://vegascasinotalk.com/forum/sh...t-with-it-once

    Rob's $25k challenge: https://vegascasinotalk.com/forum/sh...-25k-challenge
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  3. #123
    Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    Playing "feelings" in blackjack is idiotic, and will cost you money in the long run.

    However, if you want to play by feeling, and you're not a card counter, then you can choose any of the following spots, and it basically won't cost you any money:

    16 versus 10
    13 versus 2
    12 versus 4
    I'm not a blackjack expert. But I did the IGT fullpay video blackjack (100.03%) extensively. A great low low variance game when you are getting same day cashback/freeplay. Great for drawings to when tickets are based on action. It was single deck first hand off the top everytime. I gleaned the single deck compositional strategy off the Wizard of Odds. The 12 v. the 4 was one of the trickier hands. The answer to whether you hit, stand or split depends on the composition of the 12:

    10,2 = hit
    9,3 = hit
    8,4 = stand
    7,5 = stand
    6,6 = split

    This comes from faded memory. Haven't played the game in years so hopefully I got it right.
    Keystone is a mental midget.

  4. #124
    Sorry Dan but this is absolutely wrong: "Odds bets are 0 EV, so betting them has a negligible effect on your bottom line,"

    Optimists at craps pour on their odds bets because of the payout. And when they're wrong they get creamed. Odds bets with zero house advantage also have zero players advantage, but for the right-way passline player the house is always more likely to win.

    The figure of 64% that I've been looking for I still can't find. It was in reference to the chances that a number will repeat. In order to win your odds bet that are attached to the flat bet the number must repeat.

  5. #125
    KJ. I get maybe $500 to $600 a month in free play. Some are in the form of chips. Most are for machine play. Some blackjack machines allow DAS. Others are crappy rules. But I've been playing a progressive approach. Lose 1 bet 2. Lose 2 bet 3. Lose 3 bet 4. Win 4 bet 3. etc etc. I usually get all my free play and then some. I read somewhere that losing 7 hands in a row is unusual. So I will go max after 7 losses until I get 1 win ahead.

    Any other ideas?

  6. #126
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    Sorry Dan but this is absolutely wrong: "Odds bets are 0 EV, so betting them has a negligible effect on your bottom line,"

    Optimists at craps pour on their odds bets because of the payout. And when they're wrong they get creamed. Odds bets with zero house advantage also have zero players advantage, but for the right-way passline player the house is always more likely to win.
    I said that odds bets have a lot of variance. They are still 0 EV, and you need to be properly bankrolled to make them, but they are just as likely to win big as they are to lose big.

    In the long run, odds bets will have a negligible effect on your bottom line if you're properly bankrolled and you make enough of them.

    But yes, they do introduce a lot of extra variance, unless you bet smaller on the pass line so your odds bet ends up equivalent to what you would have otherwise bet on the pass line anyway.

    But still, they can induce extra variance if you bet on numbers other than 6 or 8, due to the feast-for-famine nature of those less-likely-to-hit bets.
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

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