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Thread: My free play results

  1. #61
    But Alan “plays perfectly” and the game pays 99.18%. LOL.

    It is funny how one minute they go for the long shot and the next minute they go for the “safe” play....

    8/5 bonus is probably a 97% game the way Alan plays it. Hard to believe he posted this video.

  2. #62
    Originally Posted by Dankyone View Post
    It never crossed my mind that using free play would change anyone’s play strategy...perhaps some people are as dumb as they appear.
    I know one guy (IRL) and have seen a poster on a forum that have some....very bad strategies and logic when it comes to freeplay. Both are supposedly APs, but I’m not convinced they can figure stuff out on their own...but if they’re spoon-fed something, they can do it.

    The first treated AP too much like a business and not enough like AP. So if he was ahead on something, he’d do more of that. If he was behind on something else, he wouldn’t play that anymore because “it’s not a money maker”. His logic was because free play isn’t actually money, but a “rebate”, that you should play it like a loss rebate and play the highest denomination you can. That way you either break even, worst case scenario, or you win big.

    Then again, I he didn’t really know how variance works and was committed to the idea that the more you play, the less likely you are to be +/- 2 SDs, as if being down 2 SDs is less likely after 100,000 hands and more likely after 100 or 1,000 hands. Lots of other crazy shit he believed. (More stories if you’re interested, but doubt it.)


    The other, who posts on another forum, thinks you should play the highest denomination possible. His logic, if you can call it that, is because video poker has a house edge, you want to play as little as possible. The more hands you play, the more likely the house edge is to catch up to you. So if you only play a few hands, the HE doesn’t have enough time to catch up to you, because of the long run.


    They’re both assholes though. Hopefully the first loses all his money at the craps table and the second at the horsebook....but one can only hope! ��
    #FreeTyde

  3. #63
    Originally Posted by mickeycrimm View Post
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    Originally Posted by mickeycrimm View Post
    The frequency of holding 567 suited and making a straight flush is exactly the same as holding a pair and making quads, 360.333

    Alan, what do you think now?
    I think the same thing after this discussion as I did after I had the same discussion with Rob Singer years ago. As I posted earlier, Rob also said the correct hold was the three SF cards. But the strategy I learned and followed is that you had a better chance getting your money back just holding the queen.

    Why do you raise the question about the odds of getting four of a kind? I was not holding the lone Q to get four of a kind. Honestly, I was running my free play through once to maximize the value of the free play. Holding the lone queen did that by giving me four chances to pair the Queen or draw another paying pair or better.

    As I read years ago, holding three small SF cards was nothing but a long shot -- and a tremendous long shot. It's 1/1081 to draw the straight flush, right Mickey? I wrote that number before in this thread but it was overlooked.

    Ive had similar dealt hands over all the years I've played video poker, and never once did the SF cards show up on the draw. Gosh, how many times have all of us been dealt four to the royal and the single draw card was a blank? You saw in the video that on one hand I was dealt three to the royal -- also a 1/1081 draw -- and that was a miss too.

    The reason I posted my free play video was to show an example of real results. This isn't armchair gambling, but it certainly brought out the Monday Morning Quarterbacks.

    The rationale for not holding three small SF cards is sound -- because even a pair doesn't pay. And as I said make the SF draw with one high card or two and that changes everything.

    You call it the wrong play -- but it was the right play for me. I wanted to convert free play to cash. But I assure you if there were four dealt cards with only one card to draw (as in a dealt four card royal) I would have taken the 1/47 shot. But a 1/1081 shot with only forty hands to be played? No thanks.
    It's not 1 in 1081. It's 3 in 1081. In other words 1 in 360.3333. There are three combinations that make the straight flush. When holding 567suited you can catch 34, 48, 89.
    You are correct its three in 1081 but still a long shot, isn't it? And how many chances do I have holding the lone queen to come up with a hand that will at least convert my free play into money I can cash out?

    I really must say I'm surprised that I gave you all such a wonderful opportunity to attack me. At worst I made an error playing correct strategy. At best, I followed a strategy to improve my chances of winning something.

    I get $50 of free play again on Saturday, I'll post another video. I look forward to seeing your videos. Perhaps I'll learn something when I see them.

  4. #64
    Originally Posted by Dankyone View Post
    It never crossed my mind that using free play would change anyone’s play strategy...perhaps some people are as dumb as they appear.
    And why not change strategy?

    Suppose my free play was a single $50 bet at blackjack -- a game I don't play and really don't know. Suppose the casino had a special rule that says "if the first card dealt to you is a face card, we'll give you 75-percent of your bet to call it quits."

    Since I know nothing about blackjack would I be wrong to accept that? Remember, I was given fifty dollars as a free bet at a game I don't know. My first card is a king. I just might call it quits for $37.50.

  5. #65
    Originally Posted by RS__ View Post
    They’re both assholes though. Hopefully the first loses all his money at the craps table and the second at the horsebook....but one can only hope! ��
    I never heard anyone call it the Horsebook... Ever!?!? In my entire Life!?
    Not even the Ploppies!?

    In Vegas we call it the Racebook. Just like the Sportsbook... we don't call it the Footballbook!?
    Now you could spell them Race Book and Sports Book as well if you like.

    This reminds me of the tourists in a poker game saying they got Twos and Threes instead of Deuces and Treys.
    In Vegas we call Twos... Deuces and Threes... Treys.

    But what the Fuck do I know? You are the Top AP on these boards!
    Doing all your good and spreading cheer with your Do Gooder Group of Friends.
    You guys are so good you hang out at the Horsebook all day, I suppose, waiting to swoop in and help another lost soul.

    Siri is Fucking Up Your Mind!

    https://www.horsebooks.com.au/

    https://www.google.com/search?q=hors...w=1920&bih=974
    Last edited by monet; 08-17-2018 at 01:30 AM.

  6. #66
    It does not matter if it is free play or your own cash.

    No, you don’t know anything about blackjack.

    The scenario you describe has nothing to do with your erroneous VP play.

  7. #67
    Originally Posted by AxelWolf View Post
    holding A 10 off J Q SS OVER JQSS

    How does that cut down on variance?

    That hand is even more baffling than the other one. It won't cut down on variance, all you do is limit yourself to inside str8's and pay pairs. That hand contradicts whatever Alan's excuses for why he played the other hand badly. Correct me if I'm wrong, but you have a way better chance of getting your money back with JQSS over the A high inside with 3 high cards.
    Per the screen shot below, the variance is much less using Alan's strategy (you will see that this is unimportant if you read the rest of the post). Holding only JQ suited, the variance is about 32 times higher than the 4 card hold. However, even though the variance is higher (due to the NRF,StrFl, and 4ofaK possibilities) for the two-card hold, the player has a 38% chance of picking up a non-losing hand for the two-card hold versus a 28% chance of a non-losing hand for the 4-card straight-draw which is the important thing IMHO (along with the fact that the EV is also higher LOL). BTW, I totally get the fact that this post will have no influence on Alan's decision making when he encounters this sort of dealt hand out in the field.
    Name:  variance_jq_suited.jpg
Views: 365
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    Last edited by tableplay; 08-17-2018 at 05:03 AM.

  8. #68
    Alan, at the start of your video you said that 8/5 Bonus Poker has a 99.17% return. That is only with optimum strategy. You definitely are not playing optimum strategy so in effect you are probably playing a 98% game.
    "More importantly, mickey thought 8-4 was two games over .500. Argued about it. C'mon, man. Nothing can top that for math expertise. If GWAE ever has you on again, you can be sure I'll be calling in with that gem.'Nuff said." REDIETZ

  9. #69
    Somehow I didn't realize this was a new thread, figured it was an old thread because it jumped me to page 5 or whatever...so I thought this was an old thread. I'm surprised no one caught this, though:
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    This discussion is similar to the one about odds in craps. Sure your passline odds in craps have zero house advantage but they only have about a 64% chance of winning.
    Where do you come up with this nonsense?
    #FreeTyde

  10. #70
    Originally Posted by tableplay View Post
    Originally Posted by AxelWolf View Post
    holding A 10 off J Q SS OVER JQSS

    How does that cut down on variance?

    That hand is even more baffling than the other one. It won't cut down on variance, all you do is limit yourself to inside str8's and pay pairs. That hand contradicts whatever Alan's excuses for why he played the other hand badly. Correct me if I'm wrong, but you have a way better chance of getting your money back with JQSS over the A high inside with 3 high cards.
    Per the screen shot below, the variance is much less using Alan's strategy (you will see that this is unimportant if you read the rest of the post). Holding only JQ suited, the variance is about 32 times higher than the 4 card hold. However, even though the variance is higher (due to the NRF,StrFl, and 4ofaK possibilities) for the two-card hold, the player has a 38% chance of picking up a non-losing hand for the two-card hold versus a 28% chance of a non-losing hand for the 4-card straight-draw which is the important thing IMHO (along with the fact that the EV is also higher LOL). BTW, I totally get the fact that this post will have no influence on Alan's decision making when he encounters this sort of dealt hand out in the field.
    I guess he doesn't hold J 10 suited when the cards are something like (Jd 10d As 4h 6c)?
    I wouldn't doubt that he would just hold the lone Ace as well!?

    What does he do with (Qd 10d As 4h 6c)??

    I am losing interest though because he doesn't care to learn and change and the people who understand already know so I am just wasting my time.

    When I first seen him post this thread I was going to watch the video and comment but I knew he was just baiting for attention and reactions.
    I got involved and interested when Axelwolf broke his video down with 3 mistakes in 40 hands.
    I lost interest again after he doesn't understand how strong 47-1 odds are when you are getting a max payout of 800-1 on your bet!
    Not only that but you have plenty of outs to break even or get ahead on the wager even if you miss the big payday.
    Even the ploppies understand and would make that bet all day long.
    Last edited by monet; 08-17-2018 at 07:06 AM.

  11. #71
    Originally Posted by mickeycrimm View Post
    Alan, at the start of your video you said that 8/5 Bonus Poker has a 99.17% return. That is only with optimum strategy. You definitely are not playing optimum strategy so in effect you are probably playing a 98% game.
    This should be engrained in everybody's head here. Guys like Singer and Alan try to convince people you can profit off these games at will, using sub-optimal strategy and/or some magical betting system. Therefore turning a 99% game into a 97% one. Sad thing is people actually believe this trash. Casino execs love you guys for it!!

  12. #72
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    Suppose my free play was a single $50 bet at blackjack -- a game I don't play and really don't know. Suppose the casino had a special rule that says "if the first card dealt to you is a face card, we'll give you 75-percent of your bet to call it quits."

    Since I know nothing about blackjack would I be wrong to accept that? Remember, I was given fifty dollars as a free bet at a game I don't know. My first card is a king. I just might call it quits for $37.50.
    Good lord! The expected value of a first card 10/face card in blackjack is 14% of wager. So if the casino is giving me 5 times that amount, I am on it.

    Alan, I appreciate that you frequently issue the disclaimer that "you don't play blackjack" or "don't know much about blackjack", but that doesn't stop you from talking an awful lot about blackjack and astonishingly almost everything you state is wrong. I would expect someone not knowing much about a particular topic to get some things correct and some things wrong. But seriously almost everything you say about blackjack is wrong.

    When you use blackjack to make any point, you look rather foolish Alan. Either learn the game or stop using examples from blackjack.

  13. #73
    Originally Posted by kewlJ View Post
    But seriously almost everything you say is wrong.
    .

  14. #74
    Originally Posted by AxelWolf View Post
    Originally Posted by kewlJ View Post
    But seriously almost everything you say is wrong.
    .
    Well, yeah....THAT too.

  15. #75
    Originally Posted by monet View Post

    I guess he doesn't hold J 10 suited when the cards are something like (Jd 10d As 4h 6c)?
    I agree. He's a low variance guy -except when he isn't.
    I wouldn't doubt that he would just hold the lone Ace as well!?
    Probably, even though the next best play (after JT) is to hold the AJ and it has about six times less variance than holding the just the Ace
    What does he do with (Qd 10d As 4h 6c)??
    I'm going with a lone Ace hold ("special play") - but it probably depends on what side of the bed he wakes up on (what the previous night's convo with his son was like)

  16. #76
    Originally Posted by monet View Post
    I never heard anyone call it the Horsebook... Ever!?!? In my entire Life!?
    I suppose the next thing you are going to tell me Maiden races are for horses that have not yet been poodled.

  17. #77
    Originally Posted by RS__ View Post
    Somehow I didn't realize this was a new thread, figured it was an old thread because it jumped me to page 5 or whatever...so I thought this was an old thread. I'm surprised no one caught this, though:
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    This discussion is similar to the one about odds in craps. Sure your passline odds in craps have zero house advantage but they only have about a 64% chance of winning.
    Where do you come up with this nonsense?
    That is not nonsense. The chance of a passline bet winning is 64%. And that includes the odds portion of the bet.

    You were a craps dealer, right? You know that the chance of winning is different from the house edge, right? The house edge on the "odds portion" is zero, but the house still has a greater chance of winning each and every time.

  18. #78
    Originally Posted by kewlJ View Post

    When you use blackjack to make any point, you look rather foolish Alan. Either learn the game or stop using examples from blackjack.
    You're right, I shouldnt use blackjack as examples. I just think it's silly to use coin flips. LOL

  19. #79
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    Originally Posted by kewlJ View Post

    When you use blackjack to make any point, you look rather foolish Alan. Either learn the game or stop using examples from blackjack.
    You're right, I shouldnt use blackjack as examples. I just think it's silly to use coin flips. LOL
    Ouch! Now that HURT. Mendel, Mendel. lol

  20. #80
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson
    The chance of a passline bet winning is 64%.

    Sir, could you please explain exactly which bet you are referring to that you are claiming that either the house or the player's chance of winning is 64%

    If you are talking about betting pass that is an even money payout on a win. So how could either the player or the house have that great of a probability of winning? Thank you.
    please don't feed the trolls

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