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Thread: My free play results

  1. #81
    I wanted to find the exact reference but I couldn't but the point about "free odds" not being really free is summed up in this paragraph on Wikipedia:

    The only exception is the "odds" bet that the player is allowed to make after a point is established on a pass/come don't pass/don't come bet (the odds portion of the bet has a long-term expected value of 0). However, this "free odds" bet cannot be made independently, so the expected value of the entire bet, including odds, is still negative.

  2. #82
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    I wanted to find the exact reference but I couldn't but the point about "free odds" not being really free is summed up in this paragraph on Wikipedia:

    The only exception is the "odds" bet that the player is allowed to make after a point is established on a pass/come don't pass/don't come bet (the odds portion of the bet has a long-term expected value of 0). However, this "free odds" bet cannot be made independently, so the expected value of the entire bet, including odds, is still negative.
    If I recall right, In Exhibit CAA, even James Grosjean advises against making the odds bet. I'll recheck that soon.

  3. #83
    “The expected value of the entire bet is still negative.”

    Alan loses every year.

  4. #84
    Originally Posted by jbjb View Post
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    I wanted to find the exact reference but I couldn't but the point about "free odds" not being really free is summed up in this paragraph on Wikipedia:

    The only exception is the "odds" bet that the player is allowed to make after a point is established on a pass/come don't pass/don't come bet (the odds portion of the bet has a long-term expected value of 0). However, this "free odds" bet cannot be made independently, so the expected value of the entire bet, including odds, is still negative.
    If I recall right, In Exhibit CAA, even James Grosjean advises against making the odds bet. I'll recheck that soon.
    The odds bet is good on the numbers more likely to hit which are 6 and 8.

    I'm amazed by one player at Red Rock who comes to the tables with about five thousand per visit. Red Rock has 10X odds. He will make a $100 passline bet and regardless of the point established by the shooter he always makes a $1000 odds bet.

    He always leaves busted. But if he limited his odds on the outside numbers (4, 5, 9, 10) I think he'd have better results.

    Ironically if he used some of his money placing 6 and 8 I know he'd do better. Shooters have thrown multiple sixes and eights without making a pass.

    I think players get suckered by the phrase "the odds have no house advantage."

  5. #85
    If I had a choice of either just a pass/don't bet or just being able to bet odds, I'll take odds all day. But since they're tied together, I'll just pass, pardon the pun, on both.

  6. #86
    Let’s follow Alan’s voodoo craps strategy. His VP special plays work so well, I just can’t wait to see him show us how to play baccarat.

  7. #87
    Originally Posted by Dankyone View Post
    Let’s follow Alan’s voodoo craps strategy. His VP special plays work so well, I just can’t wait to see him show us how to play baccarat.
    It's funny: Alan has "special plays". Singer has "special plays". In both cases, these "special plays" go against the mathematics of optimal play.

    To Alan's credit he doesn't claim the "special plays" makes him a winning player. But Singer does. Somehow in Singer's case the "special plays" acts as a magic wand, changing reality.

    I have known that member Arcimede$ pretty clearly exposed Singer, before I came on board here, but I never bothered to go back and read some of it until today. Arcimede$ ran simulations, that definitively disprove Singer's claims, and definitively prove Singer's play is not only negative EV but very sub-optimal.

    I sort of wish I had read Arcimede$ posts before I ever interacted with Singer. There would have been no need for me to have ever even responded to Singer or his ridiculous claims. It has been proven beyond contestation, except by Singer and a few other characters that seem to reside outside of reality.
    Last edited by kewlJ; 08-17-2018 at 10:17 PM.

  8. #88
    Originally Posted by Moses View Post
    Originally Posted by monet View Post
    I never heard anyone call it the Horsebook... Ever!?!? In my entire Life!?
    I suppose the next thing you are going to tell me Maiden races are for horses that have not yet been poodled.
    Start at the 24:00 Mark
    Or Just buy the DVD or watch the Free Youtube Movie

    ---------------------------------------------

    My new life didn't sit well with Jan. She was used to her four fucks a day and also used to seeing me poor and humble.

    Jan: Mr. Horseplayer. Mr. Big Horseplayer...

    Don't give me any shit about plumbers Jan...

    Jan: Your Mr. Big Time Horseplayer...

    By the way I am the Worlds Greatest Horseplayer...

    Jan: Horseshit!!

    No... Horseplayer!

    Last edited by monet; 08-17-2018 at 10:21 PM.

  9. #89
    Rob never covered up his sub optimal play. Why is that even discussed? He admits it. But that isn't what he claims made him win. I hope Rob explains that.

    Craps is a losing game. The only way to come out ahead is with some kind of jackpot like the Fire Bet or Bonus Craps that delivers a big payoff.

  10. #90
    Second $50 of the week.

  11. #91
    Stick to what you know like Big Jeff and Bread.



    Last edited by monet; 08-18-2018 at 05:07 AM.

  12. #92
    Originally Posted by monet View Post
    Stick to what you know like Big Jeff and Bread.



    Couldn't help but laugh. After I played my free play, I thought I had the dealt straight locked in, but when I hit the last button the last card didn't hold and I missed the straight. And when I saw you ALMOST do the same, I mentally said "wait!"

  13. #93
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    Second $50 of the week.
    Alan, why did you hold 3 high cards which were not suited and not consecutive at 3:12 (copy link below) instead of holding the JK ? Is this one of Singer's special plays ?

    https://youtu.be/duAAF9pMInE?t=192

  14. #94
    Originally Posted by tableplay View Post
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    Second $50 of the week.
    Alan, why did you hold 3 high cards which were not suited and not consecutive at 3:12 (copy link below) instead of holding the JK ? Is this one of Singer's special plays ?
    "https://youtu.be/duAAF9pMInE?t=192"
    AKJ rainbow... you know it is the variance and he wants the best way to get his dollar and a quarter back.
    Or get the dollar and a quarter from Red Rock Casino.
    I guess that is a Book Play!?

    ----------------------------

    Also, we have our answer after the 1 minute mark (1:35) that he holds AJ offsuit over the lone Ace or the correct J 10 Suited.
    He fooled me. I thought he would just hold the Lone Ace For Sure.
    I guess that is a Book Play!? Jon Ho used to tell me all the time: I read Book, I know Book Play.

    Originally Posted by tableplay View Post
    Originally Posted by monet View Post

    I guess he doesn't hold J 10 suited when the cards are something like (Jd 10d As 4h 6c)?
    I agree. He's a low variance guy -except when he isn't.
    I wouldn't doubt that he would just hold the lone Ace as well!?
    Probably, even though the next best play (after JT) is to hold the AJ and it has about six times less variance than holding the just the Ace
    What does he do with (Qd 10d As 4h 6c)??
    I'm going with a lone Ace hold ("special play") - but it probably depends on what side of the bed he wakes up on (what the previous night's convo with his son was like)
    Last edited by monet; 08-18-2018 at 08:57 AM.

  15. #95
    But wait, Alan plays 8/5 bonus perfectly!

  16. #96
    Originally Posted by monet View Post

    AKJ offsuit... you know it is the variance and he wants the best way to get his dollar and a quarter back.
    Or get the dollar and a quarter from Red Rock Casino.
    I guess that is a Book Play!?

    ----------------------------

    Also, we have our answer after the 1 minute mark (1:35) that he holds AJ offsuit over the lone Ace or the correct J 10 Suited.
    He fooled me. I thought he would just hold the Lone Ace For Sure.
    I guess that is a Book Play!? Jon Ho used to tell me all the time: I read Book, I know Book Play.

    Originally Posted by tableplay View Post
    Originally Posted by monet View Post

    I guess he doesn't hold J 10 suited when the cards are something like (Jd 10d As 4h 6c)?
    I agree. He's a low variance guy -except when he isn't.
    I wouldn't doubt that he would just hold the lone Ace as well!?
    Probably, even though the next best play (after JT) is to hold the AJ and it has about six times less variance than holding the just the Ace
    What does he do with (Qd 10d As 4h 6c)??
    I'm going with a lone Ace hold ("special play") - but it probably depends on what side of the bed he wakes up on (what the previous night's convo with his son was like)
    Yes I guessed wrong about the lone Ace too. He needs to burn the Grochowski book IMHO.

  17. #97
    Originally Posted by tableplay View Post
    Originally Posted by monet View Post

    AKJ offsuit... you know it is the variance and he wants the best way to get his dollar and a quarter back.
    Or get the dollar and a quarter from Red Rock Casino.
    I guess that is a Book Play!?

    ----------------------------

    Also, we have our answer after the 1 minute mark (1:35) that he holds AJ offsuit over the lone Ace or the correct J 10 Suited.
    He fooled me. I thought he would just hold the Lone Ace For Sure.
    I guess that is a Book Play!? Jon Ho used to tell me all the time: I read Book, I know Book Play.
    Yes I guessed wrong about the lone Ace too. He needs to burn the Grochowski book IMHO.
    I was looking up that AKJ Rainbow play, just cause.
    I found it funny that the Lone Jack beats AKJ Rainbow when you have no penalties against the Jack it seems!!
    So in his hand he had an 8 and that is a straight penalty so he played it correct over just playing the Lone Jack this time!
    Last edited by monet; 08-18-2018 at 09:20 AM.

  18. #98
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    Second $50 of the week.
    I skipped right to the end, because after all the actual results are what matter,
    and I see that you cashed out +$57.50 in 5 minutes.

    Doesn't that mean that this play is worth $690 per hour?

    You just moved to LV and already you are accumulating some nice EV,
    will you rathole it away somewhere?

  19. #99
    Originally Posted by coach belly View Post
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    Second $50 of the week.
    I skipped right to the end, because after all the actual results are what matter,
    and I see that you cashed out +$57.50 in 5 minutes.

    Doesn't that mean that this play is worth $690 per hour?

    You just moved to LV and already you are accumulating some nice EV.
    Yep, only results matter. As a MATTER of fact, Alan's results lifetime, are him losing hundreds of thousands of dollars at casinos. Yep, only the results matter!

  20. #100
    Originally Posted by coach belly View Post
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    Second $50 of the week.
    I skipped right to the end, because after all the actual results are what matter,
    and I see that you cashed out +$57.50 in 5 minutes.

    Doesn't that mean that this play is worth $690 per hour?

    You just moved to LV and already you are accumulating some nice EV,
    will you rathole it away somewhere?
    He will have all his debts paid in no time!
    I am happy for his children and anyone else who can benefit from his windfall.
    Hopefully this will be the first year that he shows a profit!

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